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Abstract

Form subdivision may be defined as the extension of a subject heading based on the form or arrangement of the subject matter in the book. In other words, it repre sents what the book is, rather than what it is about, the subject matter being expressed by the main heading.1 David Judson Haykin, Subject Headings: A Practical Guide (Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1951).¹     

The Training of Statisticians

Harold Hotelling, Chairman of the Committee on the Teaching of Statistics* * Members of the Committee: Harold Hotelling, (Chairman), Professor of Mathematical Statistics and Associate Director, Institute of Statistics, University of North Carolina; Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Division of Statistical Standards, Bureau of the Budget, Washington, D. C.; Dr. Walter Bartky, Dean of Arts and Sciences. University of Chicago; Dr. Milton Friedman Associate Professor of Statistics, School of Business, University of Chicago; Dr. Paul G. Hoel, Associate Professor of Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles. of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, has prepared this brief-summary of the Committee's report to the Board of Directors of IMS. Professor Hotelling will discuss the subject more fully in “Symposium on Probability and Statistics” to be published by the University of California Press. The Committee's report will be published in full in “The Annals of Mathematical Statistics”.

     

Block Bootstrap Calibration with Application to the Fire Weather Index

This article presents an analysis of Ontario Fire Weather Index (FWI) data^?The data used is ©1963–2004, Queen’s Printer for Ontario, Canada, and was referenced under agreement with the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources.Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/lssp. using the block bootstrap for time series. Confidence intervals for parameters such as the first lag autocorrelation can have low coverage relative to the nominal level. Therefore, adjustments to the confidence intervals are necessary in order to achieve reasonable accuracy. We introduce a confidence interval calibration method in which the length of the confidence interval is adjusted according to an amount determined from a double bootstrap. We compare this method with the α-level adjustment method, and we find that the length-adjustment method is superior under scenarios similar to that of the FWI data: coverage proportions are slightly higher for the length-adjustment approach, and confidence interval widths are markedly smaller. Applying the length-adjustment method to the Ontario FWI data gives different results than would be obtained without adjustment.     

Regularity in individual shopping trips: implications for duration models in marketing

Most models for purchase-timing behavior of households do not take into account that many households have regular and non-shopping days. We propose a statistical model for purchase timing that exploits information on the shopping days of households. The model is formulated in a counting process framework that counts the recurrent purchases for each household over (calendar) time. In our empirical application of yogurt and detergent purchases from the ERIM1 The data can be found at http://gsbww.uchicago.edu/research/mkt/Databases/ERIM/ERIM.html View all notes database, we show that calendar time effects and regular and non-shopping days are important features to include in models for purchase-timing behavior. We find, for instance, that for these product categories the probability of purchasing is 50–60% higher on Saturdays and 70% higher on regular shopping days. We highlight the managerial implications of these model features by simulating some promotional actions.     

On the invertibility of EGARCH(p,q)

Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH) specification is said to be able to capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative effects of equal magnitude, and leverage, which refers to the negative correlation between the returns shocks and subsequent shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-)maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the EGARCH(p, q) parameters are not available under general conditions, but only for special cases under highly restrictive and unverifiable sufficient conditions, such as EGARCH(1,0) or EGARCH(1,1), and possibly only under simulation. A limitation in the development of asymptotic properties of the QMLE for the EGARCH(p, q) model is the lack of an invertibility condition for the returns shocks underlying the model. It is shown in this article that the EGARCH(p, q) model can be derived from a stochastic process, for which sufficient invertibility conditions can be stated simply and explicitly when the parameters respect a simple condition.¹¹Using the notation introduced in part 2, this refers to the cases where α ≥ |γ| or α ≤ ? |γ|. The first inequality is generally assumed in the literature related to the invertibility of EGARCH. This article provides (in the Appendix) an argument for the possible lack of invertibility when these conditions are not met. This will be useful in reinterpreting the existing properties of the QMLE of the EGARCH(p, q) parameters.     

A Note on the Prior Distributions of Weibull Parameters for the Reliability Function

In Bayesian Inference it is often desirable to have a posterior density reflecting mainly the information from sample data. To achieve this purpose it is important to employ prior densities which add little information to the sample. We have in the literature many such prior densities, for example, Jeffreys (1967 Jeffreys , H. ( 1967 ). Theory of Probability , 3rd rev. ed. . London : Oxford University Press . [Google Scholar]), Lindley (1956 Lindley , D. V. ( 1956 ). On a measure of the information provided by an experiment . Ann. Mathemat. Statist. 27 : 986 – 1005 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]); (1961 Lindley , D. V. ( 1961 ). The use of prior probability distributions in statistical inference and decisions . In: Neyman , J. , ed. Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability . Vol. 1. Berkeley : University of California Press , pp. 453 – 468 . [Google Scholar]), Hartigan (1964 Hartigan , J. ( 1964 ). Invariant priors distributions . Ann. Mathemat. Statist. 35 : 836 – 845 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Bernardo (1979 Bernardo , J. M. ( 1979 ). Reference posterior distributions for Bayesian inference . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 41 ( 2 ): 113 – 147 . [Google Scholar]), Zellner (1984 Zellner , A. ( 1984 ). Maximal Data Information Prior Distributions, Basic Issues in Econometrics . Chicago : University of Chicago Press . [Google Scholar]), Tibshirani (1989 Tibshirani , R. ( 1989 ). Noninformative priors for one parameters of many . Biometrika 76 : 604 – 608 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), etc. In the present article, we compare the posterior densities of the reliability function by using Jeffreys, the maximal data information (Zellner, 1984 Zellner , A. ( 1984 ). Maximal Data Information Prior Distributions, Basic Issues in Econometrics . Chicago : University of Chicago Press . [Google Scholar]), Tibshirani's, and reference priors for the reliability function R(t) in a Weibull distribution.     

Three-stage and ‘accelerated’ sequential procedures for the mean of a normal population with known coefficient of variation

Three-stage and ‘accelerated’ sequential procedures are developed for estimating the mean of a normal population when the population coefficient of variation (CV) is known. In spite of the usual estimator, i.e. the sample mean, Searls' (1964 Searls, DT. (1964). The utilization of a known coefficient of variation in the estimation procedure. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc, 50: 1225–1226.  ) estimator is utilized for the estimation purpose. It is established that Searls' estimator dominates the sample mean under the two sampling schemes.     

Some Elementary Theory of Permutation Tests

In literature, permutation tests are mostly derived by means of heuristic arguments (Edgington and Onghena, 2007 Edgington, E.S., Onghena, P. (2007). Randomization Tests (4th ed.). Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Good, 2005 Good, P. (2005). Permutation, Parametric, and Bootstrap Tests of Hypotheses (3rd ed.). New York: Springer-Verlag. [Google Scholar]). In this paper, we derive them within the sufficiency and conditionality principles of inference. Most important of their properties are exposed without formal proofs that can be found in the book by Pesarin and Salmaso (2010).     

A tool to facilitate the production of control charts within a spreadsheet

Abstract

The adoption of control charts can be traced to the classic text by Shewhart (1931 Shewhart, W. A. 1931. Economic control of quality of manufactured product. London: Macmillan. ISBN: 1614278115. [Google Scholar]) and championed by many writers since then, including Deming (1982 Deming, W. E. 1982. Out of the crisis: Quality, productivity and competitive position. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 0521305535. [Google Scholar]). Numerous other texts and publications stress the continuing importance of this area. While tables of key Shewhart control chart parameters are extremely useful they are easily lost or mislaid and can sometimes be difficult to interpret. To address this issue spreadsheet code is implemented to produce all the key control chart factors.     

On the comparison of Horvitz–Thompson and Murthy's sampling strategies for estimating finite population proportions in direct and randomized response surveys

We consider the problem of unbiased estimation of a finite population proportion and compare the relative efficiency of the unequal probability sampling strategies due to Horvitz and Thompson (1952 Horvitz, D.G., Thompson, D.J. (1952). A generalization of sampling without replacement. J Am Stat Assoc. 47:663–685.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Murthy (1957 Murthy, M.N. (1957). Ordered and unordered estimators in sampling without replacement. Sankhya 18:379–390. [Google Scholar]) under a super-population model. It is shown that the model expected variance is smaller for the Murthy's (1957 Murthy, M.N. (1957). Ordered and unordered estimators in sampling without replacement. Sankhya 18:379–390. [Google Scholar]) strategy both when these two sampling strategies are based on data obtained from (i) a direct survey, and (ii) a randomized response (RR) survey employing some RR technique following a general RR model.     

Whole-Plot Exchange Algorithms for Constructing D-Optimal Multistratum Designs

Multistratum experiments contain several different sizes of experimental units. Examples include split-plot, strip-plot designs, and randomized block designs. We propose a strategy for constructing a D-optimal multistratum design by improving a randomly generated design through a sequence of whole-plot exchanges. This approach preserves the design structure and simplifies updates to the information and is applicable to any multistratum design where the largest-sized experimental unit is either a whole plot or a block. Two whole-plot exchange algorithms inspired by the point-exchange strategies of Fedorov (1972 Fedorov , V. V. ( 1972 ). Theory of Optimal Experiments . New York : Academic Press . [Google Scholar]) and Wynn (1972 Wynn , H. P. ( 1972 ). Results in the theory and construction of D-optimum experimental designs . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B Statistics Methodology 34 : 133 – 147 . [Google Scholar]) are described. The application of the algorithms to several design problems is discussed.     

Some Remarks about Robust Estimation of the Scale Parameter in Weighted Models

Using Zieliński's (1977 Zieliński , R. ( 1977 ). Robustness: a quantitative approach . Bull. Acad. Polon. Sci., Ser. Sci. Math. Astronom. Phys. 25 : 1281 – 1286 . [Google Scholar]) concept of robustness, B?a?ej (2007 B?a?ej , P. ( 2007 ). Robust estimation of the scale and weighted distributions . Appl. Math. (Warsaw) 34 : 39 – 45 . [Google Scholar]) obtained the uniformly most bias-robust estimates (UMBREs) of the scale parameter for some statistical models, in a class of linear functions of order statistics. Violations of the models are generated by weight functions. In this article the UMBRE of the scale parameter, based on order statistics, a more general weighted model is derived. Extension of a result of B?a?ej (2007 B?a?ej , P. ( 2007 ). Robust estimation of the scale and weighted distributions . Appl. Math. (Warsaw) 34 : 39 – 45 . [Google Scholar]) is given.     

On Complete Convergence for Nonstationary ϕ-Mixing Random Variables

In this article, we study the complete convergence for non-stationary ?-mixing random variables, especially, we get the Baum-Katz-type Theorem and Hsu-Robbins-type Theorem for ?-mixing random variables. Our result generalizes the corresponding one of Shao (1988 Shao, Q.M. (1988). A moment inequality and its applications. Acta Mathematica Sinica 31(6):736–747. [Google Scholar]) and improves the corresponding one of Peligrad (1985a Peligrad, M. (1985a). Convergence rates of the strong law for stationary mixing sequences. Z. Wahrsch. verw. Gebiete. 70:307–314.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Wang (1987 Wang, D.C. (1987). The complete convergence of the sums for the stationary sequence of ?-mixing random variables. J. Syst. Sci. Mathemat. Sci. 7(4):352–359. [Google Scholar]).     

A two-stage algorithm for computation of the exact distribution of sums of spacings

Based on the recursions in Huffer (1988 Huffer, F. (1988). Divided differences and the joint distribution of linear combinations of spacings. Journal of Applied Probability 25:346–354. [Google Scholar]) and Huffer and Lin (2001 Huffer, F. W., Lin, C. T. (2001). Computing the joint distribution of general linear combinations of spacings or exponential variates. Statistica Sinica 11:1141–1157. [Google Scholar]), we present a two-stage algorithm and two specialized methods for evaluating the probabilities involving linear combination of spacings of special forms. The two-stage algorithm combines the advantages of marking algorithm in Huffer and Lin (1997 Huffer, F. W., Lin, C. T. (1997). Computing the exact distribution of the extremes of sums of consecutive spacings. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 26:117–132. [Google Scholar]) and general algorithm in Huffer and Lin (2001 Huffer, F. W., Lin, C. T. (2001). Computing the joint distribution of general linear combinations of spacings or exponential variates. Statistica Sinica 11:1141–1157. [Google Scholar]). The proposed methods can analytically derive the exact expressions for some specific problems, and efficiently handle problems such as the distribution of the circular scan statistic and multiple coverage probabilities.     

Strong uniform consistency rates of kernel estimators of cumulative distribution functions

In this paper we consider the uniform strong consistency, along with a rate, of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) estimator. We extend the extended Glivenko–Cantelli lemma (for empirical distribution function) in Fabian and Hannan (1985 Fabian, V., Hannan, J. (1985). Introduction to Probability and Mathematical Statistics. New York: Wiley, ISBN-13:978-0471250234. [Google Scholar], pp. 80–83) to the kernel estimator of the CDF.     

Estimation of finite population mean using two auxiliary variables in stratified two-phase sampling

We propose a new ratio type estimator for estimating the finite population mean using two auxiliary variables in stratified two-phase sampling. Expressions for bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are derived up to the first order of approximation. The proposed estimator is more efficient than the usual stratified sample mean estimator, traditional stratified ratio estimator and some other stratified estimators including Bahl and Tuteja (1991 Bahl, S., Tuteja, R. K. (1991). Ratio and product type exponential estimators. Information and Optimization Sciences 12:159–163. [Google Scholar]), Chami et al. (2012 Chami, P. S., Singh, B., Thomas, D. (2012). A two-prameter ratio-product-ratio estimator using auxiliary information. ISRN Probability and Statistics 2012:1–15, doi: 10.5402/2012/103860.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), Chand (1975 Chand, L. (1975) Some Ratio Type Estimator Based on two or more Auxiliary Variables, Ph.D. dissertation, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (unpublished). [Google Scholar]), Choudhury and Singh (2012 Choudhury, S., Singh, B. K. (2012). A class of chain ratio-product type estimators with two auxiliary variables under double sampling scheme. Journal of the Korean Statistical Society 41:247–256. [Google Scholar]), Hamad et al. (2013 Hamad, N., Hanif, M., Haider, N. (2013). A regression type estimator with two auxiliary variables for two-phase sampling. Open Journal of Statistics, 3:74–78. [Google Scholar]), Vishwakarma and Gangele (2014 Vishwakarma, G. K., Gangele, R. K. (2014). A class of chain ratio-type exponential estimators in double sampling using two auxiliary variates. Applied Mathematics and Computation 227:171–175. [Google Scholar]), Sanaullah et al. (2014 Sanaullah, A., Ali, H. M., Noor ul Amin, M., Hanif, M. (2014). Generalized exponential chain ratio estimators under stratified two-phase random sampling. Applied Mathematics and Computation 226:541–547. [Google Scholar]), and Chanu and Singh (2014 Chanu, W. K., Singh, B. K. (2014). Improved class of ratio-cum-product estimators of finite population mean in two phase sampling. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research: F Mathematics and Decision Sciences 14(2):1–14. [Google Scholar]).     

A Note on the Comparison of the Stein Estimator and the James-Stein Estimator

The seminal work of Stein (1956 Stein, C. (1956). Inadmissibility of the usual estimator for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution. Proc. Third Berkeley Symp. Mathemat. Statist. Probab., University of California Press, 1:197–206. [Google Scholar]) showed that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the mean vector of a p-dimensional multivariate normal distribution is inadmissible under the squared error loss function when p ? 3 and proposed the Stein estimator that dominates the MLE. Later, James and Stein (1961 James, W., Stein, C. (1961). Estimation with quadratic loss. Proc. Fourth Berkeley Symp. Mathemat. Statist. Probab., University of California Press, 1:361–379. [Google Scholar]) proposed the James-Stein estimator for the same problem and received much more attention than the original Stein estimator. We re-examined the Stein estimator and conducted an analytic comparison with the James-Stein estimator. We found that the Stein estimator outperforms the James-Stein estimator under certain scenarios and derived the sufficient conditions.     

Characterizations of Life Distributions Using Conditional Expectations of Doubly (Interval) Truncated Random Variables

In this article, we study reliability measures such as geometric vitality function and conditional Shannon's measures of uncertainty proposed by Ebrahimi (1996 Ebrahimi , N. ( 1996 ). How to measure uncertainty in the residual lifetime distribution . Sankhya A 58 : 48 – 56 . [Google Scholar]) and Sankaran and Gupta (1999 Sankaran , P. G. , Gupta , R. P. ( 1999 ). Characterization of lifetime distributions using measure of uncertainty . Calcutta Statist. Assoc. Bull. 49 : 195 – 196 . [Google Scholar]), respectively, for the doubly (interval) truncated random variables. In survival analysis and reliability engineering, these measures play a significant role in studying the various characteristics of a system/component when it fails between two time points. The interrelationships among these uncertainty measures for various distributions are derived and proved characterization theorems arising out of them.     

Asymptotic Results for a Generalized Pólya Urn with “Multi-Updating” and Applications to Clinical Trials

In this article, a new Pólya urn model is introduced and studied; in particular, a strong law of large numbers and two central limit theorems are proved. This urn generalizes a model studied in Berti et al. (2004 Berti , P. , Pratelli , L. , Rigo , P. ( 2004 ). Limit theorems for a class of identically distributed random variables . Ann. Probab. 32 ( 3A ): 2029 – 2052 . [Google Scholar]), May et al. (2005 May , C. , Paganoni , A. M. , Secchi , P. ( 2005 ). On a two-color generalized Pólya urn . Metron 63 ( 1 ): 115 – 134 . [Google Scholar]), and in Crimaldi (2007 Crimaldi , I. ( 2007 ). Almost sure conditional convergence for a generalized Pólya urn. Submitted. Available at: http://amsacta.cib.unibo.it/archive/00002468  [Google Scholar]), and it has natural applications in clinical trials. Indeed, the model includes both delayed and missing (or null) responses. Moreover, a connection with the conditional identity in distribution of Berti et al. (2004 Berti , P. , Pratelli , L. , Rigo , P. ( 2004 ). Limit theorems for a class of identically distributed random variables . Ann. Probab. 32 ( 3A ): 2029 – 2052 . [Google Scholar]) is given.     

Wavelets and estimation of long memory in nonstationary models: Does anything beat the exact local whittle estimator?

In this article, we analyze the performance of five estimation methods for the long memory parameter d. The goal of our article is to construct a wavelet estimate for the fractional differencing parameter in nonstationary long memory processes that dominate the well-known estimate of Shimotsu and Phillips (2005) Shimotsu, K., Phillips, P. (2005). Exact local whittle estimation of fractional integration. Annals of statistics 20:87–127. [Google Scholar]. The simulation results show that the wavelet estimation method of Lee (2005) Lee, J. (2005). Estimating memory parameter in the US inflation rate. Economics Letters 87:207–210. [Google Scholar] with several tapering techniques performs better under most cases in nonstationary long memory. The comparison is based on the empirical root mean squared error of each estimate.