Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

商业信用融资对缓解企业风险的作用机制研究

为考察商业信用融资能否缓解企业风险,以中国A股上市制造业企业为研究样本,从规模与周期双重角度实证检验商业信用融资对企业风险的作用机制。研究表明:商业信用融资规模通过影响企业融资约束和库存持有,对企业风险产生非线性影响;立足市场交易角度,商业信用融资周期与企业风险呈现负相关关系;并且企业所有制不同会使商业信用融资规模和周期对企业风险的影响产生异质性。进一步研究发现,企业供应商集中度越高,商业信用融资规模对企业风险的影响越明显。     

Interface,Inc.: Taking the lead toward sustainability

Four years ago, CEO Ray Anderson of Interface began to confront his company's impact on the environment. The factories and suppliers of his interior furnishings company used 1.2 billion pounds of raw materials to produce $802 million in products. Of these materials, two thirds were exhaustible fuels. Anderson has set Interface on a mission—to became a sustainable enterprise. However, rather than dictating specific initiatives from the top down, his corporate strategy has been to use a seven-point program to provide guidance for each plant and business to create its own agenda. CES continues its exploration of what defines environmental leadership by exploring how Anderson has implemented this new type of corporate direction, and how Interface measures its progress towards this ambitious mission.     

Corporate compliance programs: risk management for the future

The Department of Justice has estimated that the government loses $100 billion annually in health care fraud. Consequently, the government's health care fraud enforcement activities with respect to all health care providers and suppliers continue to grow. Last year alone, the government collected more than $8 billion in settlements, fines, and penalties involving health care fraud. Recent settlements with the government have begun to include corporate compliance programs that require continued government oversight of the health care organization as an essential part of the settlement. The first section of this article describes the legal significance of health care companies' having corporate compliance programs. The second section provides a sample list of topics that should be included in any corporate compliance program. Finally, we describe various issues related to the creation and implementation of corporate compliance programs.     

Public Perception of the Risks of Floods: Implications for Communication

Floods in the U.S. kill an average of 162 people each year and cause $3.4 billion in property damage. Flood control programs have been successful in lowering, but not eliminating, the risks to lives and property. Since the late 1960s, the federal government has emphasized flood insurance as a primary tool for improving location and flood-proofing decisions, as well as for reimbursing flood losses. Since only 12.7% of houses in flood plain areas are covered by flood insurance, the program has been ineffective. We interviewed people living in three communities that had recently been flooded. Most people had little knowledge of the cause of floods or what could be done to prevent damage. People who work and who are better educated know more and are more likely to have flood insurance. Current government publications about flood risks are not likely to be understood by those at risk. There is little effective communication about the nature and magnitude of the risks and what individuals can do to protect their lives and property and lower their financial risks. The risk management program should both emphasize communication and enforcement of the current law requiring people at risk who hold federally funded loans to be insured.     

Does Size Matter? A Study of Risk Perceptions of Global Population Growth

The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well‐documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.‐based study that examined respondents’ risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate‐to‐high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research.     

Design and Assessment Methodology for System Resilience Metrics

By providing objective measures, resilience metrics (RMs) help planners, designers, and decisionmakers to have a grasp of the resilience status of a system. Conceptual frameworks establish a sound basis for RM development. However, a significant challenge that has yet to be addressed is the assessment of the validity of RMs, whether they reflect all abilities of a resilient system, and whether or not they overrate/underrate these abilities. This article covers this gap by introducing a methodology that can show the validity of an RM against its conceptual framework. This methodology combines experimental design methods and statistical analysis techniques that provide an insight into the RM's quality. We also propose a new metric that can be used for general systems. The analysis of the proposed metric using the presented methodology shows that this metric is a better indicator of the system's abilities compared to the existing metrics.     

Performance Metric Portfolios: A Framework and Empirical Analysis

The widespread adoption of supply chain management principles suggests that managers recognize the importance of evaluating operational decisions holistically. However, it is often difficult to link specific operational practices to strategic level outcomes and in turn to corporate financial results. This presents problems for both managers and academic researchers attempting to justify the often high cost of operational improvement initiatives in terms of objective accounting metrics. This study provides evidence that it is possible to demonstrate linkages between carefully chosen portfolios of tactical, strategic, and financial metrics. Survey data from 118 manufacturers are used to evaluate hypotheses linking multilevel metrics of performance across three well‐established strategic foci. We present portfolios of metrics drawn from the literature and from the Supply Chain Counciľs supply‐chain operations reference model and related design and customer chain models. Our analysis suggests that metric portfolios in which tactical metrics are designed to match strategic‐level metrics, based on alignment with a specific strategic focus, provide clearer mechanisms for understanding performance linkages.     

How to manage corporate reputation? The effect of enterprise risk management systems and audit committees on corporate reputation

Research on corporate reputation has generally argued that reputational risk, or risk of reputation loss, stems from all company risks. As companies use enterprise risk management (ERM) systems to manage all their risks, we analyse the effect of ERM system quality on corporate reputation. Furthermore, as audit committees are in charge of supervising ERM systems, we analyse the effect of audit committee characteristics (i.e. independence and independent members' knowledge and diligence) on corporate reputation through their effect on ERM system quality. Our results for a sample of listed Spanish firms support consultants’ arguments that ERM system is a useful tool for managing corporate reputation. Our results also show that audit committee independence improves corporate reputation through the ERM system. Finally, our findings also reveal a positive relationship between the average educational level of independent directors of the audit committee and ERM system quality. These results provide evidence that ERM systems are platforms to manage corporate reputations and suggest the importance of the audit committee as a supervisor of ERM system and as guarantor of corporate reputation.     

Corporate risk management and pension investment policy

In this paper, we study whether firms manage their pension risk exposures within an integrated corporate risk management framework or they manage their pension and firm risk exposures independently following the adoption of fair value pension reporting regulation (IAS 19). Controlling for known factors affecting the risk-taking in pension plan investments, we document a robust negative association both at the cross-section and over time between pension risk and firm systematic risk and operating asset risk during the post-IAS 19 adoption period. The findings suggest that firms manage pension risk as an integral part of firm risk, consistent with a coordinated risk management explanation. Overall, our evidence highlights that pension investment strategy is a dynamic process that is ultimately determined by sponsoring firms' strategic corporate risk management considerations and the important role that changing pension reporting regulation plays in shaping these dynamics. Our conclusions have potential wider implications for ongoing reforms in financial reporting and disclosure policy settings.     

Evaluating the Evaluators: Should Investors Trust Corporate Governance Metrics Ratings?

Companies are under increasing pressure to have their corporate governance rated by an independent corporate governance metrics firm, such as Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) or Governance Metrics International (GMI). These rating firms claim to be able to determine how effective and responsive a company’s board is. Institutional investors have begun using these board governance ratings when deciding which firms to include in their stock portfolios. This paper considers whether investors, many of whom claim to be socially responsible, should be relying upon board governance metrics. We find that these metrics are not good indicators of either the quality of a firm’s earnings or of its ethics.     

Explosion Probability of Unexploded Ordnance: Expert Beliefs

This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15–140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution—suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies are needed to better understand the explosion risks of UXO.     

Advances on a Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

The volume and variety of manufactured chemicals is increasing, although little is known about the risks associated with the frequency and extent of human exposure to most chemicals. The EPA and the recent signing of the Lautenberg Act have both signaled the need for high-throughput methods to characterize and screen chemicals based on exposure potential, such that more comprehensive toxicity research can be informed. Prior work of Mitchell et al. using multicriteria decision analysis tools to prioritize chemicals for further research is enhanced here, resulting in a high-level chemical prioritization tool for risk-based screening. Reliable exposure information is a key gap in currently available engineering analytics to support predictive environmental and health risk assessments. An elicitation with 32 experts informed relative prioritization of risks from chemical properties and human use factors, and the values for each chemical associated with each metric were approximated with data from EPA's CP_CAT database. Three different versions of the model were evaluated using distinct weight profiles, resulting in three different ranked chemical prioritizations with only a small degree of variation across weight profiles. Future work will aim to include greater input from human factors experts and better define qualitative metrics.     

Analysis of Inland Crude Oil Spill Threats,Vulnerabilities, and Emergency Response in the Midwest United States

Although coastal oil spills tend to be highly publicized, crude oil spills in the United States affect inland areas relatively often. Spills to inland areas often affect sensitive environments and can have greater impacts to health and welfare than spills to coastal areas. For these reasons, the authors investigated inland crude oil spill threats, vulnerabilities, and emergency response in the midwestern U.S. states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. These states work with the Region 5 Offices of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Region 5's geospatial data in the Inland Sensitivity Atlas were turned into metrics indicating inland crude oil spill threats and vulnerabilities among the Region's sub‐watersheds. These threats and vulnerabilities were weighted using data from the National Response Center and the Department of Energy's Environmental Restoration Priority System. The locations of the Region's emergency responders were geocoded in GIS. The GIS calculated the emergency response times to the Region's sub‐watersheds. The resulting scatter plots are connected to the sub‐watersheds in the map so stakeholders can (1) see the outlying sub‐watersheds of concern and (2) better understand how reducing threats and better response time can reduce the risk of inland crude oil spills.     

Benefits of and strategies to update premium rates in the US National Flood Insurance Program under climate change

The United States’ National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has accumulated over $20 billion in debt to the US Treasury since 2005, partly due to discounted premiums on homes in flood-prone areas. To address this issue, FEMA introduced Risk Rating 2.0 in October 2021, which is able to assess and charge more accurate and equitable rates to homeowners. However, rates must be continually updated to account for increasing flood damage caused by sea level rise and more intense hurricanes due to climate change. This study proposes a strategy to adopt updated premium rates that account for climate change effects and address affordability and risk mitigation issues with a means-tested voucher program. The strategy is tested in a coastal community, Ortley Beach, NJ, by projecting its future flood risk under sea level rise and storm intensification. Compared with using static rates for all the properties in Ortley Beach, the proposed strategy is shown to reduce the NFIP's potential losses to the community from 2020 to 2050 by half (from $4.6 million to $2.3 million), improve the community's flood resistance, and address affordability concerns. Sensitivity analysis of varying incomes, loan interest rates, and conditions for a voucher indicates that the strategy is feasible and effective under a wide range of scenarios. Thus, the proposed strategy can be applied to various communities along the US coastline as an effective way of updating risk-based premiums while addressing affordability and resilience concerns.     

The Psychophysics of Terror Attack Casualty Counts

In communicating the risk that terror attacks pose to the public, government agencies and other organizations must understand which characteristics of an attack contribute to the public's perception of its severity. An attack's casualty count is one of the most commonly used metrics of a terror attack's severity, yet it is unclear whether the public responds to information about casualty count when forming affective and cognitive reactions to terror attacks. This study sought to characterize the “psychophysical function” relating terror attack casualty counts to the severity of the affective and cognitive reactions they elicit. We recruited n = 684 Mechanical Turk participants to read a realistic vignette depicting either a biological or radiological terror attack, whose death toll ranged from 20 to 50,000, and rated their levels of fear and anger along with the attack's severity. Even when controlling for the perceived plausibility of the scenarios, participants’ severity ratings of each attack were logarithmic with respect to casualty count, while ratings of fear and anger did not significantly depend on casualty count. These results were consistent across attack weapon (biological vs. radiological) and time horizon of the casualties (same-day or anticipated to occur over several years). These results complement past work on life loss valuation and highlight a potential bifurcation between the public's affective and cognitive evaluations of terror attacks.     

Distributed sensemaking in network risk analysis

This article responds to the call advancing risk science as an independent research field, by introducing a conceptual model for risk analysis based on distributed sensemaking. Significant advances in recent decades have expanded the use of risk analysis to almost every organization globally. Continued improvements have been made to our understanding of risk, placing a wide range of contexts under organizational control. This article argues that four dimensions are central in how organizations make sense of uncertainty in their context and hence do risk analysis: the activities the organization engages in, their sensory systems, the role and competence of individuals, and the ability to coordinate information through organizational structures. The structure enables insight into the decision-making process and the dimensions contributing to how organizations perceive risks and uncertainty in a given context. Three examples from the Arctic context illustrate the network risk analysis model's practical application and how it will expose weaknesses in these organizations’ risk analysis and decision-making processes. Finally, the article discusses sensemaking in network risk analysis and how such an approach supports organizations’ ability to perceive, collect, process, and decide on changes in context.     

Willingness to Pay for Shifting Inventory Risk: The Role of Contractual Form

In order to reduce their inventory risk, firms can attempt to contract with their suppliers for shorter supply lead‐times, with their buyers for longer demand lead‐times, or both. We designed a controlled laboratory experiment to study contracts that shift a focal firm's inventory risk to its supply chain partners and address two questions. First, is it more effective if the cost of shifting inventory risk is framed as a fixed fee or in per‐unit cost terms? We find that, generally, our participants are willing to pay more to avoid supply–demand mismatches than the expected costs from such mismatches. This tendency to overpay is mitigated under fixed fee schemes. Second, does it matter whether the option to reduce inventory risk is the outcome of either increased responsiveness from the upstream supplier or advanced demand information from the downstream buyer? Our results suggest that this difference, when only a matter of framing, has no significant effect on willingness‐to‐pay.     

Supporting Quick Response Through Scheduling of Make-to-Stock Production/Inventory Systems*

Scheduling of traditional job shops in make-to-order systems has seen extensive research over the past three decades. In such systems, performance is often related to various job completion metrics such as average flow time, average lateness, etc. This paper examines a scheduling problem in a make-to-stock environment where individual job completion measures are irrelevant. In this case, customer orders are satisfied through on-hand inventory where customer service is more closely related to the manufacturer's ability to quickly satisfy demand. We consider the role of scheduling in reducing inventories and improving customer service in the context of a manufacturer who assembles several different products on a single assembly line. We develop scheduling rules for such a system and experimentally compare their performance to those typically used in such environments. Our results indicate that rules which consider the inventory position and demand forecast outperform traditional fixed cycle rules.     

Does Corporate Culture Affect Bank Risk‐Taking? Evidence from Loan‐Level Data

Using comprehensive corporate and retail loan data, we show that the corporate culture of banks explains their risk‐taking behaviour. Banks whose corporate culture leans towards aggressive competition are associated with riskier lending practices: higher approval rate, lower borrower quality, and fewer covenant requirements. Consequently, these banks incur larger loan losses and make greater contributions to systemic risk. The opposite behaviour is observed among banks whose culture emphasizes control and safety. Our findings cannot be explained by heterogeneity in a bank's business model, CEO compensation incentives or CEO characteristics. We use an exogenous shock to the US banking system during the 1998 Russian default crisis to support a causal inference.