Risk Perceptions,Optimism, and Natural Hazards

This article uses the panel survey developed for the Health and Retirement Study to evaluate whether Hurricane Andrew in 1992 altered longevity expectations of respondents who lived in Dade County, Florida, the location experiencing the majority of about 20 billion dollars of damage. Longevity expectations have been used as a proxy measure for both individual subjective risk assessments and dispositional optimism. The panel structure allows comparison of those respondents' longevity assessments when the timing of their survey responses bracket Andrew with those of individuals where it does not. After controlling for health effects, the results indicate a significant reduction in longevity expectations due to the information respondents appear to have associated with the storm.     

The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards

This article reviews the main insights from selected literature on risk perception, particularly in connection with natural hazards. It includes numerous case studies on perception and social behavior dealing with floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wild fires, and landslides. The review reveals that personal experience of a natural hazard and trust—or lack of trust—in authorities and experts have the most substantial impact on risk perception. Cultural and individual factors such as media coverage, age, gender, education, income, social status, and others do not play such an important role but act as mediators or amplifiers of the main causal connections between experience, trust, perception, and preparedness to take protective actions. When analyzing the factors of experience and trust on risk perception and on the likeliness of individuals to take preparedness action, the review found that a risk perception paradox exists in that it is assumed that high risk perception will lead to personal preparedness and, in the next step, to risk mitigation behavior. However, this is not necessarily true. In fact, the opposite can occur if individuals with high risk perception still choose not to personally prepare themselves in the face of a natural hazard. Therefore, based on the results of the review, this article offers three explanations suggesting why this paradox might occur. These findings have implications for future risk governance and communication as well as for the willingness of individuals to invest in risk preparedness or risk mitigation actions.     

第一届中国企业·管理·伦理论坛会议综述

企业与社会相分离、管理与伦理相割裂的发展模式不可持续,迫切需要有新的商业模式、新的管理理论和管理模式出现。在此背景下,2014年6月10日,于上海召开的"第一届中国企业·管理·伦理论坛"对相关问题进行了研讨。在此,结合论坛的主要报告和讨论内容,就企业社会责任、企业伦理、管理伦理以及这一领域未来应关注的主题等几个方面的主要观点进行综述,并归纳了与会者对论坛的可持续发展的各种建议。     

Understanding the Relationship Between Direct Experience and Risk Perception of Natural Hazards

Risk perception has been largely examined in studies that have aimed to explain and predict preparedness behavior in the context of natural hazards. Findings from studies on the relationship between previous experience, preparedness, and risk perception in disaster situations have been inconsistent. Hence, the main goal of this work was to explore the influence of physical and emotional experience on risk perception regarding natural hazards. This study was conducted in a statistically representative sample of the city of Iquique, in northern Chile (n = 701), who completed a survey one month after the occurrence of an earthquake and tsunami (8.2 Mw). The survey assessed the experience and preparation actions of survivors in relation to this event. Using a structural equation model, we examined nine proposed relationships, six of which were significant. The final model had an adequate fit (χ² = 752.23, df = 283, comparative fit index [CFI] = 0.90, root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.049). Direct experience showed the greatest influence on risk perception: while direct physical experience (i.e., the physical and material consequences associated with the earthquake) maintained a direct positive effect on risk perception, direct emotional experience (i.e., the fear of experiencing an earthquake) produced an indirect positive effect (through worry). Emotional experience, however, did not directly influence current preparedness and risk perception. Implications for understanding the relationship between risk perception and direct experience are discussed.     

Artificial Intelligence for Natural Hazards Risk Analysis: Potential,Challenges, and Research Needs

Artificial intelligence (AI) methods have seen increasingly widespread use in everything from consumer products and driverless cars to fraud detection and weather forecasting. The use of AI has transformed many of these application domains. There are ongoing efforts at leveraging AI for disaster risk analysis. This article takes a critical look at the use of AI for disaster risk analysis. What is the potential? How is the use of AI in this field different from its use in nondisaster fields? What challenges need to be overcome for this potential to be realized? And, what are the potential pitfalls of an AI-based approach for disaster risk analysis that we as a society must be cautious of?     

企业社会责任与企业伦理关系分析

企业社会责任与企业伦理是何关系既是一个理论问题,也是一个现实问题。跳出仅仅从概念视角分析文献中实际采用的定义的局限,提出“3+2”的分析框架,即从三个视角(基本概念、学科领域和社会运动)、两个层面(现实层面和理论层面)分析企业社会责任和企业伦理的关系。分析表明:企业社会责任概念与企业伦理概念之间的关系,不同于企业社会责任领域与企业伦理领域之间的关系,也不同于企业社会责任运动与企业伦理运动之间的关系;同样是企业社会责任和企业伦理概念之间、领域之间和运动之间的关系,现实层面的关系和理论层面的关系也有差异;企业社会责任和企业伦理既非互不相干,亦非完全等同,也不是简单的一个包含另一个的关系,而是既有区别,又有联系的关系。     

Estimating Health Risks from Natural Hazards Using Risk Assessment and Epidemiology

Risk assessment is the process of estimating the likelihood that an adverse effect may result from exposure to a specific health hazard. The process traditionally involves hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization to answer “How many excess cases of disease A will occur in a population of size B due to exposure to agent C at dose level D?” For natural hazards, however, we modify the risk assessment paradigm to answer “How many excess cases of outcome Y will occur in a population of size B due to natural hazard event E of severity D?” Using a modified version involving hazard identification, risk factor characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization, we demonstrate that epidemiologic modeling and measures of risk can quantify the risks from natural hazard events. We further extend the paradigm to address mitigation, the equivalent of risk management, to answer “What is the risk for outcome Y in the presence of prevention intervention X relative to the risk for Y in the absence of X?” We use the preventable fraction to estimate the efficacy of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes as a result of a prevention strategy under ideal circumstances, and further estimate the effectiveness of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes under typical community-based settings. By relating socioeconomic costs of mitigation to measures of risk, we illustrate that prevention effectiveness is useful for developing cost-effective risk management options.     

The Role of Insurance in Managing Natural Hazard Risks: Private Versus Social Decisions

We explore the interaction between individual and collective decisions concerning natural hazards. Collective actions such as building a dam change the risks faced by private individuals. We show that, with proper incentives, individual reactions to such changes in risk can serve to enhance risk management by utilizing individual's decisions to take account of their specialized knowledge about their risk preferences and losses. We demonstrate that the efficient response to construction of a dam may be private actions that lead to a fully anticipated increase in flood damage. In such instances, zoning that focuses on reducing flood damage may lead to less efficient use of the flood plain. More generally, even where incentives for underinvestment in market insurance and self-insurance are present, constraining use of the flood plain by zoning will not generally lead to efficient outcomes. The model identifying conditions under which informed individuals have the incentives to make efficient decisions is powerful and directs attention toward more fruitful approaches.     

The Sources of Belief in Personal Capability: Antecedents of Self-Efficacy in Private Adaptation to Flood Risk

Self-efficacy is one of the strongest and most consistent drivers of private flood mitigation behavior; however, the factors influencing self-efficacy in the context of flooding remain unclear. The present study examines three potential antecedents of self-efficacy: personal and vicarious experiences of floods or building-related events, social norms for private flood preparedness, and personal competencies such as technical abilities and social skills. While controlling for other drivers in a protection motivation theory (PMT) framework, these antecedents are tested as precursors of self-efficacy and intentions to improve flood resilience. Structural equation modeling is applied to conduct mediation analyses with survey data of 381 flood-prone households in Austria. Contrary to theoretical expectations, personal and vicarious experiences do not predict self-efficacy, presumably because rare flood events and changing hazard characteristics do not facilitate generalizable performance accomplishments. Social norms strongly and consistently influence self-efficacy, especially for actions observable by others, and also directly influence protective responses. Personal competencies increase self-efficacy and support protective action, particularly with regard to preventive and structural measures. The strength and direction of the antecedents of self-efficacy as well as of other PMT determinants vary between general and specific protective responses. This study provides important insights for risk managers, suggesting that interventions involving social norms and personal competencies can be effective in stimulating self-efficacy and, in turn, private flood mitigation. Interventions and research should clearly differentiate between general intention and the implementation of specific measures, and should address cumulative, synergistic, or tradeoff interrelations between multiple measures.     

Modeling Insurer‐Homeowner Interactions in Managing Natural Disaster Risk

The current system for managing natural disaster risk in the United States is problematic for both homeowners and insurers. Homeowners are often uninsured or underinsured against natural disaster losses, and typically do not invest in retrofits that can reduce losses. Insurers often do not want to insure against these losses, which are some of their biggest exposures and can cause an undesirably high chance of insolvency. There is a need to design an improved system that acknowledges the different perspectives of the stakeholders. In this article, we introduce a new modeling framework to help understand and manage the insurer's role in catastrophe risk management. The framework includes a new game‐theoretic optimization model of insurer decisions that interacts with a utility‐based homeowner decision model and is integrated with a regional catastrophe loss estimation model. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as bounds on the insurer‐insured interactions. We demonstrate the model for a full‐scale case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in eastern North Carolina; present the results from the perspectives of all stakeholders—primary insurers, homeowners (insured and uninsured), and reinsurers; and examine the effect of key parameters on the results.     

Compressed Natural Gas Bus Safety: A Quantitative Risk Assessment

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.     

创业与伦理的融合:研究评析与前瞻

选取创业与伦理融合的视角,对当前研究成果和未来研究方向进行评析。研究发现:创业与伦理融合的基础条件在于二者的内涵包含有对方的属性,融合方式表现为创业的"自我机会-他人机会"与伦理的"经济价值-非经济价值"的不同组合;基于"手段-目的"假设建立的分析模型,有助于理清当前新兴的相关研究主题的边界和异同;构建的系统研究框架,可以提炼出当前研究的不足并明晰未来研究方向。     

Natural Hazards and Motivation for Mitigation Behavior: People Cannot Predict the Affect Evoked by a Severe Flood

Past research indicates that personal flood experience is an important factor in motivating mitigation behavior. It is not fully clear, however, why such experience is so important. This study tested the hypothesis that people without flooding experience underestimate the negative affect evoked by such an event. People who were affected by a severe recent flood disaster were compared with people who were not affected, but who also lived in flood-prone areas. Face-to-face interviews with open and closed questions were conducted ( n = 201). Results suggest that people without flood experience envisaged the consequences of a flood differently from people who had actually experienced severe losses due to a flood. People who were not affected strongly underestimated the negative affect associated with a flood. Based on the results, it can be concluded that risk communication must not focus solely on technical aspects; in order to trigger motivation for mitigation behavior, successful communication must also help people to envisage the negative emotional consequences of natural disasters.     

Comparative Analysis of Deterministic and Semiquantitative Approaches for Shallow Landslide Risk Modeling in Rwanda

The use of appropriate approaches to produce risk maps is critical in landslide disaster management. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the stability index mapping (SINMAP) and the spatial multicriteria evaluation (SMCE) models for landslide risk modeling in Rwanda. The SINMAP used the digital elevation model in conjunction with physical soil parameters to determine the factor of safety. The SMCE method used six layers of landslide conditioning factors. In total, 155 past landslide locations were used for training and model validation. The results showed that the SMCE performed better than the SINMAP model. Thus, the receiver operating characteristic and three statistical estimators—accuracy, precision, and the root mean square error (RMSE)—were used to validate and compare the predictive capabilities of the two models. Therefore, the area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.883 and 0.798, respectively, for the SMCE and SINMAP. In addition, the SMCE model produced the highest accuracy and precision values of 0.770 and 0.734, respectively. For the RMSE values, the SMCE produced better prediction than SINMAP (0.332 and 0.398, respectively). The overall comparison of results confirmed that both SINMAP and SMCE models are promising approaches for landslide risk prediction in central‐east Africa.     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

Ethical Issues in Risk Communication: Continuing the Discussion

Proposed in this article is one possible framework for classifying multiple types of ethical issues in risk communication research and practice to help continue a discussion initiated in 1990 by Morgan and Lave. Some of the questions that each stage of the process for planning risk communication strategies appears to pose for ethics are discussed (e.g., selecting issues to be communicated, knowing the issue, dealing with constraints). Also discussed briefly are some issues raised by the possibility that risk communicators aspire to the status of a profession. The purpose is to foster discussion rather than issue a conclusive statement on the topic, because its very nature makes a definitive pronouncement indefensible.     

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013

Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large‐scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability—as a function of how people perceive physical distance—do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them.     

Managing a Low-Incidence Risk: The Example of Toxic Shock Syndrome

This article demonstrates a methodology that allows individuals to reach a personal decision on the use of products which carry very small risks to health and life but also offer considerable benefits. A combination of the principles of dominance, extended dominance, and various methods of direct risk-benefit tradeoffs are shown to reduce the number of possible decisions regarding product use to the one optimal for the value structure of a particular individual. An historical examination of toxic-shock syndrome identifies tampons as a product with risks too small to warrant public intervention but too sizeable to be ignored. The methodology described here can be applied for all such products.     

Ethics and human resource management and development in a global context: case study of an Indian multinational

A firm's orientation to ethics is influenced largely by its national and organizational culture. Research shows that a growing number of Indian firms place a distinct emphasis on long-term orientation to business strategy with a social mission, underpinned by firm commitment to core organizational values, employee development and welfare. Through a case study of a large Indian multinational conglomerate, this article provides preliminary evidence of how some emerging economy firms are successfully mixing and matching indigenous business and people management strategies with the Western emphasis on meritocracy and professionalism to compete in the contemporary global economy. It further shows how the human resource development (HRD) discipline can play a pro-active role in embedding ethics and values throughout the organizational and HR architecture. The HRD professionals in the case study firm also face several structural and cultural challenges in discharging their ethics-driven HR mandate, such as management's ethnocentric attitude to global staffing and clash of work cultures.     

企业集团代理人风险态度、道德风险与信用风险传递

由于企业集团的关联企业众多,股权结构复杂,导致银企信息更加不对称,银行对企业集团贷款资金的监管更加困难,企业集团也更有机会产生不按照贷款合约使用贷款资金的道德风险,从而增大了银行的信用风险.针对此问题,首先分析了企业集团代理人转移银行贷款资金的动机,以及企业集团子公司之间信用风险的传递过程;其次,基于代理人效用最大化原理,分析委托代理合约、代理人风险态度,以及代理人转移贷款资金的道德风险对企业集团子公司信用风险的影响;最后,建立了度量企业集团子公司信用风险的违约概率模型.研究表明,代理人的风险态度、委托代理合约的状态都会影响企业集团子公司的违约概率.