Psychophysiological coherence training to moderate air traffic controllers’ fatigue on rotating roster

The nature of the current rotating roster, providing 24-h air traffic services over five irregular shifts, leads to accumulated fatigue which impairs air traffic controllers’ cognitive function and task performance. It is imperative to develop an effective fatigue risk management system to improve aviation safety based upon scientific approaches. Two empirical studies were conducted to address this issue. Study 1 investigated the mixed effect of circadian rhythm disorders and resource depletion on controllers’ accumulated fatigue. Then, study 2 proposed a potential biofeedback solution of quick coherence technique which can mitigate air traffic controllers’ (ATCOs’) fatigue while on controller working position and improve ATCOs’ mental/physical health. The current two-studies demonstrated a scientific approach to fatigue analysis and fatigue risk mitigation in the air traffic services domain. This research offers insights into the fluctuation of ATCO fatigue levels and the influence of a numbers of factors related to circadian rhythm and resource depletion impact on fatigue levels on study 1; and provides psychophysiological coherence training to increase ATCOs’ fatigue resilience to mitigate negative impacts of fatigue on study 2. Based on these two studies, the authors recommended that an extra short break for air traffic controllers to permit practicing the quick coherence breathing technique for 5 min at the sixth working hour could substantially recharge cognitive resources and increase fatigue resilience. Application: Present studies highlight an effective fatigue intervention based on objective biofeedback to moderate controllers’ accumulated fatigue as a result of rotating shift work. Accordingly, air navigation services providers and regulators can develop fatigue risk management systems based on scientific approaches to improve aviation safety and air traffic controller's wellbeing.     

Is there such a thing as leadership skill? – A replication and extension of the relationship between high school leadership positions and later-life earnings

This paper replicates and extends Kuhn and Weinberger's (2005) “Leadership Skills and Wages”. The original article found that those white males who were club presidents and team captains in high school earned significantly more eleven years later. As the empirical relationship between leadership positions and subsequent earnings includes those characteristics that predate high school and those that are developed because of leadership activity participation in high school, the original study cannot differentiate between leadership skills developed earlier and those developed in high school. We employ propensity score matching on leadership exposure in high school to control for potential endogenous observable selection and provide estimates from instrumental variable regressions to assess the robustness of the original effects to other omitted causes. To investigate the generalizability of the original findings, we also extend the sample by including females and non-white males. Lastly, we investigate how an extension of the initial (11-year) time horizon to almost 50 years affects the coefficient estimates. We can corroborate the original effect that those who occupied leadership positions as captains and presidents earn more 11 years after high school and report higher income some 50 years after high school. We fail, however, to find effects for those who occupied only a role as captain or president solely. Moreover, the findings do not generalize to the samples of females and non-white males. Our findings provide important insights into later-life benefits of early leadership exposure and have implications for those designing leadership training programs and those taking on (or refraining from) leadership positions in early life.     

Reanalysis of the DEMS Nested Case‐Control Study of Lung Cancer and Diesel Exhaust: Suitability for Quantitative Risk Assessment

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2012 upgraded its hazard characterization of diesel engine exhaust (DEE) to “carcinogenic to humans.” The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort and nested case‐control studies of lung cancer mortality in eight U.S. nonmetal mines were influential in IARC's determination. We conducted a reanalysis of the DEMS case‐control data to evaluate its suitability for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Our reanalysis used conditional logistic regression and adjusted for cigarette smoking in a manner similar to the original DEMS analysis. However, we included additional estimates of DEE exposure and adjustment for radon exposure. In addition to applying three DEE exposure estimates developed by DEMS, we applied six alternative estimates. Without adjusting for radon, our results were similar to those in the original DEMS analysis: all but one of the nine DEE exposure estimates showed evidence of an association between DEE exposure and lung cancer mortality, with trend slopes differing only by about a factor of two. When exposure to radon was adjusted, the evidence for a DEE effect was greatly diminished, but was still present in some analyses that utilized the three original DEMS DEE exposure estimates. A DEE effect was not observed when the six alternative DEE exposure estimates were utilized and radon was adjusted. No consistent evidence of a DEE effect was found among miners who worked only underground. This article highlights some issues that should be addressed in any use of the DEMS data in developing a QRA for DEE.     

Does an attractive partner make you a better leader? Only if you are a male!

We integrate the research on evolutionary leadership with the evolutionary psychology of mate choice to argue that a facially attractive partner signals unobservable leadership qualities of their mate, and thus, partner's attractiveness spills over to their mate's perceived leadership. Study 1 found that while partner's attractiveness enhanced the perceived leadership of male CEOs, female CEOs' leadership was downgraded in the presence of an attractive partner. Study 2 validated that the leadership penalty for female CEOs increased when they were seen with more attractive males than with less attractive males. Study 3 found that conservative candidates that were male benefitted more from an attractive partner than their liberal counterparts but female candidates were penalized regardless of political ideology. Our findings suggest that indirect cues that emanate from the partner are critical for leadership assessment. They invoke attributions that enhance the perceived leadership of males but disapprove of females as leaders.     

Ambient Asbestos Fiber Concentrations and Long‐Term Trends in Pleural Mesothelioma Incidence between Urban and Rural Areas in the United States (1973–2012)

Over the past 40 years, measured ambient asbestos concentrations in the United States have been higher in urban versus rural areas. The purpose of this study was to determine whether variations in ambient asbestos concentrations have influenced pleural mesothelioma risk in females (who generally lacked historic occupational asbestos exposure relative to males). Male pleural mesothelioma incidence trends were analyzed to provide perspective for female trends. Annual age‐adjusted incidence rates from 1973 to 2012 were obtained from the SEER 9, 13, and 18 databases for urban and rural locations, and standardized rate ratios were calculated. Female rural rates exceeded urban rates in almost half of the years analyzed, although the increases were not statistically significant, which is in line with expectations if there was no observable increased risk for urban locations. In contrast, male urban rates were elevated over rural rates for nearly all years examined and were statistically significantly elevated for 22 of the 40 years. Trend analyses demonstrated that trends for females remained relatively constant over time, whereas male urban and rural incidence increased into the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a decrease/leveling off. Annual female urban and rural incidence rates remained approximately five‐ to six‐fold lower than male urban and rural incidence rates on average, consistent with the comparatively increased historical occupational asbestos exposure for males. The results suggest that differences in ambient asbestos concentrations, which have been reported to be 10‐fold or greater across regions in the United States, have not influenced the risk of pleural mesothelioma.     

The Speeding Attitude Scale and the Role of Sensation Seeking in Profiling Young Drivers at Risk

Seven driving attitude scales representing driving behaviors and beliefs about driving were created and initially validated using 257 undergraduate students (168 females, 89 males) in Study 1. However, the Speeding Attitude Scale (SAS) accounted for most of the strength of the intercorrelations among these scales and discriminant classification analyses showed that SAS dominated the other scales as a sufficient explanation for having speeding tickets. Study 2, using 180 students (75 males, 105 females), replicated findings regarding the significant but low correlation between SAS and speeding tickets, and was significantly correlated with Zuckerman's Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS). Replication also showed that males had higher SAS scores and more speeding tickets. Accidents were typically a function of sex, increasing age, and variables related to recent accident history. Objective sources of speeding attitude confirmation may enhance the future validity of the SAS. Potential interventions for being a safe passenger and attitudinal control in the training of young drivers were discussed.     

Value of Statistical Life and Cause of Accident: A Choice Experiment

The purpose of this study is to compare the value of statistical life (VSL) estimates for traffic, drowning, and fire accidents. Using a choice experiment in a mail survey of 5,000 Swedish respondents we estimated the willingness to pay for risk reductions in the three accidents. In the experiment respondents were asked a series of questions, whether they would choose risk reducing investments where type of accident, cost of the investment, the risk reduction acquired, and the baseline risk varied between questions. The VSLs for fire and drowning accidents were found to be about 1/3 lower than that for traffic accidents. Although respondents worry more about traffic accidents, this alone cannot explain the difference in VSL estimates. The difference between fire and drowning accidents was not found to be statistically significant.     

Tolerance for Environmental Health Risks: The Influence of Knowledge, Benefits, Voluntariness, and Environmental Attitudes

This study examined factors affecting risk estimates and tolerance among persons directly exposed to environmental health risks. Data were gathered from questionnaires distributed at public hearings regarding proposed air pollution standards for an arsenic emitting copper smelter located in Tacoma, Washington. Approximately 80% of the area residents who attended the hearings completed the questionnaires, and the responses of 347 subjects were analyzed. Results indicated that informal risk estimates and risk tolerance were closely associated with judged benefits of the hazard source, acceptance or denial of vulnerability, judgments of exposure voluntariness, and environmental attitudes. Neither factual knowledge of formal risk estimates and proposed standards nor residential distance from the smelter was found to be closely related to risk tolerance or informal risk estimates. Implications of the results are discussed in relation to past and future studies of reactions to risk, and in relation to risk management policy and practice.     

Attitudes toward physician assisted suicide: Poland and the United States

A scale to measure attitudes toward physician assisted suicide was administered to a sample (N=246) of Polish citizens and a sample (N=246) of U.S. citizens equated on gender, marital status, religion, and socioeconomic level. In both samples the reliability was substantial (Cronbach's alphas of .93 and .89), and the factor structure identical (one major factor). Significant ethnic differences were found for 10 of the 12 scale items, but no differences related to demographic variables. The obtained differences appear to parallel a conservative-liberal dimension, though this will need to be assessed in future studies.     

Further Notes on Public Response to Uncertainty in Risks and Science

Given the prevalence of uncertainty and variability in estimates of environmental health risks, it is important to know how citizens interpret information representing uncertainty in risk estimates. Ranges of risk estimates from a hypothetical industry source elicited divergent evaluations of risk assessors' honesty and competence among New Jersey residents within one mile of one or more factories. A plurality saw ranges of risk estimates as both honest and competent, but with most judging such ranges as deficient on one or both dimensions. They wanted definitive conclusions about safety, tended to believe the high end of the range was more likely to be an accurate estimate of the risk, and believed that institutions only discuss risks when they are "high." Acknowledgment of scientific, as opposed to self-interested, reasons for uncertainty and disputes among experts was low. Attitude toward local industry seemed associated with, if not a cause of, attitudes about ranges of risk estimates. These reactions by industry neighbors appear to replicate the findings of Johnson and Slovic (1995, 1998), despite the hypothetical producer of risk estimates being industry instead of government. Respondents were older and less educated on average than were the earlier samples, but more diverse. Regression analyses suggested attitude toward industry was a major factor in these reactions, although other explanations (e.g., level of scientific understanding independent of general education) were not tested in this study.     

Fuzzy-Trace Theory, Risk Communication, and Product Labeling in Sexually Transmitted Diseases

Health care professionals are a major source of risk communications, but their estimation of risks may be compromised by systematic biases. We examined fuzzy-trace theory's predictions of professionals' biases in risk estimation for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) linked to: knowledge deficits (producing underestimation of STI risk, re-infection, and gender differences), gist-based mental representation of risk categories (producing overestimation of condom effectiveness for psychologically atypical but prevalent infections), retrieval failure for risk knowledge (producing greater risk underestimation when STIs are not specified), and processing interference involving combining risk estimates (producing biases in post-test estimation of infection, regardless of knowledge). One-hundred-seventy-four subjects (experts attending a national workshop, physicians, other health care professionals, and students) estimated the risk of teenagers contracting STIs, re-infection rates for males and females, and condom effectiveness in reducing infection risk. Retrieval was manipulated by asking estimation questions in two formats, a specific format that "unpacked" the STI category (infection types) and a global format that did not provide specific cues. Requesting estimates of infection risk after relevant knowledge was directly provided, isolating processing effects, assessed processing biases. As predicted, all groups of professionals underestimated the risk of STI transmission, re-infection, and gender differences, and overestimated the effectiveness of condoms, relative to published estimates. However, when questions provided better retrieval supports (specified format), estimation bias decreased. All groups of professionals also suffered from predicted processing biases. Although knowledge deficits contribute to estimation biases, the research showed that biases are also linked to fuzzy representations, retrieval failures, and processing errors Hence, interventions that are designed to improve risk perception among professionals must incorporate more than knowledge dissemination. They should also provide support for information representation, effective retrieval, and accurate processing.     

Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire: Behavioral Reactions to Terrorist Attacks

A low-probability, high-damage event in which many people are killed at one point of time is called a dread risk. Dread risks can cause direct damage and, in addition, indirect damage mediated though the minds of citizens. I analyze the behavioral reactions of Americans to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and provide evidence for the dread hypothesis: (i) Americans reduced their air travel after the attack; (ii) for a period of one year following the attacks, interstate highway travel increased, suggesting that a proportion of those who did not fly instead drove to their destination; and (iii) for the same period, in each month the number of fatal highway crashes exceeded the base line of the previous years. An estimated 1,500 Americans died on the road in the attempt to avoid the fate of the passengers who were killed in the four fatal flights.     

Ethnic Differences in Risk from Mercury among Savannah River Fishermen

Fishing plays an important role in people's lives and contaminant levels in fish are a public health concern. Many states have issued consumption advisories; South Carolina and Georgia have issued them for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. This study examined ethnic differences in risk from mercury exposure among people consuming fish from the Savannah River, based on site-specific consumption patterns and analysis of mercury in fish. Among fish, there were significant interspecies differences in mercury levels, and there were ethnic differences in consumption patterns. Two methods of examining risk are presented: (1) Hazard Index (HI), and (2) estimates of how much and how often people of different body mass can consume different species of fish. Blacks consumed more fish and had higher HIs than Whites. Even at the median consumption, the HI for Blacks exceeded 1.0 for bass and bowfin, and, at the 75th percentile of consumption, the HI exceeded 1.0 for almost all species. At the White male median consumption, noHI exceeded 1, but for the 95th percentile consumer, the HI exceeded 1.0 almost regardless of which species were eaten. Although females consumed about two thirds the quantity of males, HIs exceeded 1 for most Black females and for White females at or above the 75th percentile of consumption. Thus, close to half of the Black fishermen were eating enough Savannah River fish to exceed HI = 1. Caution must be used in evaluating an HI because the RfDs were developed to protect the most vulnerable individuals. The percentage of each fish species tested that exceeded the maximum permitted limits of mercury in fish was also examined. Over 80% of bowfin, 38% of bass, and 21% of pickerel sampled exceeded 0.5 ppm. The risk methodology is applicable anywhere that comparable data can be obtained. The risk estimates are representative for fishermen along the Savannah River, and are not necessarily for the general populations.     

Board Diving Regulations in Public Swimming Pools and Risk of Injury

Public session access to diving boards is one of the stepping stones for those wishing to develop their skills in the sport of diving. The extent to which certain dive forms are considered risky (forward/backward/rotations) and therefore not permitted is a matter for local pool managers. In Study 1, 20 public pools with diving facilities responded to a U.K. survey concerning their diving regulation policy and related injury incidence in the previous year. More restrictive regulation of dive forms was not associated with a decrease in injuries (r_s[42] = –0.20, p = 0.93). In Study 2, diving risk perception and attitudes towards regulation were compared between experienced club divers (N = 22) and nondivers (N = 22). Risk was perceived to be lower for those with experience, and these people favored less regulation. The findings are interpreted in terms of a risk thermostat model, where for complex physical performance activities such as diving, individuals may exercise caution in proportion to their ability and previous experience of success and failure related to the activity. Though intuitively appealing, restrictive regulation of public pool diving may be ineffective in practice because risk is not simplistically associated with dive forms, and divers are able to respond flexibly to risk by exercising caution where appropriate.     

城市机动车限行对PM2.5的影响与效果检验

为缓解城市道路拥堵与交通污染问题,全国多地陆续实施机动车限行政策,但针对不同城市不同限行政策对大气污染的影响却鲜有文献研究。根据政策特征,本文将限行政策分为一般限行和特殊限行两类。基于双重差分模型,采用2001-2017年我国各省会城市及直辖市的面板数据,本文分别研究了不同类型的限行政策对城市PM_2.5污染的改善作用。研究发现：首先,机动车PM_2.5排放已经成为了城市PM_2.5排放的主要来源之一,机动车限行措施也越来越多地被运用到治理城市空气污染的过程中;第二,一般限行政策和特殊限行政策均不同程度地缓解了大气污染,但相对而言,特殊限行政策的减排效果更明显;第三,限行政策的力度,如限行区域的相对大小和限制机动车的相对数量均能影响政策效果,一般来说,限行区域越大,限行的车辆越多,减排效果越显著;第四,在剔除特殊样本"北京"和"限购"政策的影响后,限行政策依然有效。本文从机动车PM_2.5排放的角度实证检验了限行政策对大气污染的影响和效果,为政府进一步制定更高效合理的道路交通污染防治措施提供了参考依据。     

Risk Perceptions of Mobile Phone Use While Driving

Numerous governments have introduced regulations governing the use of mobile (cellular) telephones while driving. Despite significant research into the "objective" risks, there is relatively little research into risk perceptions either in relation to other in-car distractions or with respect to the factors underlying such perceptions. The current article reports on two studies addressing these issues. Study 1 ( N = 199) found that whereas the use of hand-held sets is seen as one of the riskiest activities to perform while driving, the risks of using a hands-free kit are perceived to be relatively small. Study 2 ( N = 1,320) found that nearly half of all drivers in the sample with a mobile phone reported having used it while driving and that, overall, the probability of having an accident was perceived to be less for oneself than for one's peers, indicating an optimistic bias. Two factors underpinned risk perceptions, "impact" including perceived severity and equitability, and "controllability" including immediacy, detectability, and probability. While higher "impact" scores were associated with increased preferences for restrictions on the use of hand-held mobiles while driving, the "controllability" scores moderated this relationship such that when perceived "controllability" was low, restriction preferences were high irrespective of perceived "impact." However, when "controllability" was high, restriction preferences remained high when "impact" was high but were low when "impact" was low. Given the growing number of in-car technological innovations, it is suggested that regulators act strategically, rather than finding themselves developing a series of "hazard-specific" regulations, which may ultimately lack coherence.     

Estimating the Risks of Smoking, Air Pollution, and Passive Smoke on Acute Respiratory Conditions

Five years of the annual Health Interview Survey, conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, are used to estimate the effects of air pollution, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke on respiratory restrictions in activity for adults, and bed disability for children. After adjusting for several socioeconomic factors, the multiple regression estimates indicate that an independent and statistically significant association exists between these three forms of air pollution and respiratory morbidity. The comparative risks of these exposures are computed and the plausibility of the relative risks is examined by comparing the equivalent doses with actual measurements of exposure taken in the homes of smokers. The results indicate that: (1) smokers will have a 55-75% excess in days with respiratory conditions severe enough to cause reductions in normal activity; (2) a 1 microgram increase in fine particulate matter air pollution is associated with a 3% excess in acute respiratory disease; and (3) a pack-a-day smoker will increase respiratory restricted days for a nonsmoking spouse by 20% and increase the number of bed disability days for young children living in the household by 20%. The results also indicate that the estimates of the effects of secondhand smoking on children are improved when the mother's work status is known and incorporated into the exposure estimate.     

Decision Making,Risk and Gender: Are Managers Different?

This paper explores differences in the nature of decisions taken by males and females. Women are playing an increasingly important role in business management and managers are ultimately tested and evaluated in terms of their success in making decisions. Consequently any difference in the character and quality of decisions taken by male and female managers will have important implications for organizations. This paper reviews the literature, and reports two pieces of empirical work which investigate the connections between gender and decision making. The decision-making characteristics of males and females in a ‘non-managerial’ population in which the majority of individuals have not undergone formal management education are contrasted with a ‘managerial’ population of potential and actual managers who have undertaken such education. It is argued that women are often excluded from managerial positions of authority and leadership due to stereotypes, which have been constructed by observing ‘non-managerial’ populations at large. The paper concludes, however, that these stereotypes may not apply to managers as in the ‘managerial’ sub-population males and females display similar risk propensity and make decisions of equal quality.     

Time‐Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross‐Sectional Equity Data Sets

We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from a large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time‐varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes both instruments common to all assets and asset‐specific instruments. The estimator uses simple weighted two‐pass cross‐sectional regressions, and we show its consistency and asymptotic normality under increasing cross‐sectional and time series dimensions. We address consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance by hard thresholding, and testing for asset pricing restrictions induced by the no‐arbitrage assumption. We derive the restrictions given by a continuum of assets in a multi‐period economy under an approximate factor structure robust to asset repackaging. The empirical analysis on returns for about ten thousand U.S. stocks from July 1964 to December 2009 shows that risk premia are large and volatile in crisis periods. They exhibit large positive and negative strays from time‐invariant estimates, follow the macroeconomic cycles, and do not match risk premia estimates on standard sets of portfolios. The asset pricing restrictions are rejected for a conditional four‐factor model capturing market, size, value, and momentum effects.     

The Role of the Affect and Availability Heuristics in Risk Communication

Results of past research suggest that affect plays an important role in risk perception. Because affect may also increase the availability of risks, affect and availability are closely related concepts. Three studies tested the hypothesis that evoking negative affect (fear), either through past experience or through experimental manipulation, results in greater perceived risk. The present research focused on perception of flooding risk. Study 1 and Study 2 showed that participants who received risk information concerning a longer time period (e.g., 30 years) perceived more danger compared with participants who received risk information for one year. Study 2 showed that the interpretation of risk information was influenced by participants' own experiences with flooding. In Study 3, affect was experimentally manipulated. After looking at photographs depicting houses in a flooded region, participants perceived greater risk compared with participants in a control group. Taken together, the results of these three studies suggest that affect is important for successful risk communication. Results of the present research are in line with the affect heuristic proposed by Slovic and colleagues.