Why Reduced-Form Regression Models of Health Effects Versus Exposures Should Not Replace QRA: Livestock Production and Infant Mortality as an Example

Do pollution emissions from livestock operations increase infant mortality rate (IMR)? A recent regression analysis of changes in IMR against changes in aggregate “animal units” (a weighted sum of cattle, pig, and poultry numbers) over time, for counties throughout the United States, suggested the provocative conclusion that they do: “[A] doubling of production leads to a 7.4% increase in infant mortality.” Yet, we find that regressing IMR changes against changes in specific components of “animal units” (cattle, pigs, and broilers) at the state level reveals statistically significant negative associations between changes in livestock production (especially, cattle production) and changes in IMR. We conclude that statistical associations between livestock variables and IMR variables are very sensitive to modeling choices (e.g., selection of explanatory variables, and use of specific animal types vs. aggregate “animal units). Such associations, whether positive or negative, do not warrant causal interpretation. We suggest that standard methods of quantitative risk assessment (QRA), including emissions release (source) models, fate and transport modeling, exposure assessment, and dose-response modeling, really are important—and indeed, perhaps, essential—for drawing valid causal inferences about health effects of exposures to guide sound, well-informed public health risk management policy. Reduced-form regression models, which skip most or all of these steps, can only quantify statistical associations (which may be due to model specification, variable selection, residual confounding, or other noncausal factors). Sound risk management requires the extra work needed to identify and model valid causal relations.     

Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Or Should I Wait and See? Influences on Wildfire Evacuation Decisions

As climate change has contributed to longer fire seasons and populations living in fire‐prone ecosystems increase, wildfires have begun to affect a growing number of people. As a result, interest in understanding the wildfire evacuation decision process has increased. Of particular interest is understanding why some people leave early, some choose to stay and defend their homes, and others wait to assess conditions before making a final decision. Individuals who tend to wait and see are of particular concern given the dangers of late evacuation. To understand what factors might influence different decisions, we surveyed homeowners in three areas in the United States that recently experienced a wildfire. The Protective Action Decision Model was used to identify a suite of factors previously identified as potentially relevant to evacuation decisions. Our results indicate that different beliefs about the efficacy of a particular response or action (evacuating or staying to defend), differences in risk attitudes, and emphasis on different cues to act (e.g., official warnings, environmental cues) are key factors underlying different responses. Further, latent class analysis indicates there are two general classes of individuals: those inclined to evacuate and those inclined to stay, and that a substantial portion of each class falls into the wait and see category.     

Ignorance Is Not Probability

The distinction between ignorance about a parameter and knowing only a probability distribution for that parameter is of fundamental importance in risk assessment. Brief dialogs between a hypothetical decisionmaker and a risk assessor illustrate this point, showing that the distinction has real consequences. These dialogs are followed by a short exposition that places risk analysis in a decision‐theoretic framework, describes the important elements of that framework, and uses these to shed light on Terje Aven's criticism of nonprobabilistic purely “objective” methods. Suggestions are offered concerning a more effective approach to evaluating those methods.     

领导者自身理当和谐发展

“通则不痛,痛则不通”说的是人自身和谐的问题。同理,作为一名现代领导者,也必须具备七个方面的要素,即信念、知识、经验、眼界、胸怀、能力、作风。这就好比人体七窍,只有七窍皆通,人的身体才能健康;只有七个方面的要素俱全,才能构建自身的和谐,实现和谐发展,成为一名合格的、优秀的乃至卓越的领导者;也只有造就了一大批高素质的干部队伍,我们党的事业才能真正兴旺发达。坚定的信念理想是人生的目标,信念则是对人生目标的崇奉程度。一个人的人生目标能不能恒久和达成,取决于对目标的追求是否执著,即是否具有坚定的信念。信念如灯,它能给一…     

Not your father's health care

We in health care are living and working in a world that, for all its technical changes, differs little in its basic assumptions, structures, payment systems, beliefs, expectations, and job titles from the world of health care a generation back. How much change can we expect over the coming years? A lot more than we are prepared for. Look at the array of new technologies headed our way, from genomic sciences to customized vaccinations. Many of the breakthroughs promise incredible abilities to prevent disease, to profile our proclivities, and to manage our genetic predispositions over long periods of time, rather than merely wait until the disease manifests in an acute phase, then treat the symptoms. Digital technologies bring physicians executives enormous opportunities for new ways of gathering, storing, and mining information, for new types of communication between medical professionals, for new communications with customers, and new ways of steering large, complex enterprises. Unprecedented opportunities for change keep piling in through the door. Vast pressures for change keep building from every side. And the rewards for anyone who can lead the change keep compounding.     

领导干部要懂点艺术

在许多领导干部看来,艺术是艺术家的事,与从政者无关.偶尔有领导干部学点、懂点艺术,还常常被戏谑为附庸风雅.这样一来,领导干部因不懂艺术而闹出笑话、遭遇尴尬的事便时有发生.     

领导者应学会科学授权

人们经常会碰到这样的领导者:整天有开不完的会,签不完的字,谈不完的话,出不完的差,接不完的电话,看不完的材料,扯不完的皮……忙得不可开交,好像哪里少了他都不行.     

领导者如何肯定下属

这里所指的肯定,是指领导者对下属的优点和成绩所给予的一种赞誉和褒扬。肯定是一门艺术,领导者适时、适度地肯定下属的行为是对下属的一种尊重,既利于下属扬长避短,也能有效地调动下属工作的积极性和创造性。当然,肯定也不能无原则地赞扬。那么,领导者如何     

领导干部应怎样实施领导

领导干部是党的方针政策的宣传者、执行者,是带领部属拟定工作目标、完成工作任务的指引者和决策者,领导干部能否实施正确有力的领导,直接关系到党的方针政策贯彻落实的效果,关系到一个单位建设质量的高低。那么,作为领导干部,应该怎样对部属进行领导呢?我认为应该从以下几个方面进行。政策法规导方向。党的政策法规和上级的指示精神是方向性问题,领导干部一定要使部属树立方向意识,正确把握上级意图。一要督促学习明方向。对党的方针政策、上级的文件精神,领导干部要督促部属及时学习,逐字逐句弄懂,深刻领悟其中的内涵,把握精神实质,只有这…     

组织工作要引领科学发展导向

党的十六届三中全会明确提出,要树立科学发展观,实现经济社会全面协调发展。深入领会和全面落实科学发展观,是当前摆在各级领导干部面前的一项重要政治任务,是新时期党建设新的伟大工程的重要内容。组织工作在服从服务于经济建设中心的同时,要体现时代的要求和特征,为树立科学发展观发挥好导向作用。一、要创新适应科学发展的组织工作观念。观念是行动的先导,只有观念的创新,才有创新的实践。新时期的组织工作在继承和发扬优良传统的同时,要紧跟时代步伐,增强政治意识、大局意识、改革意识、发展意识,要牢牢树立科学发展观。一要创建组织工…     

领导干部要慎择爱好

河南省临颍县南街村党委书记王宏斌的爱好与时下有些领导干部的爱好大不相同.他一不爱串酒场牌场,二不爱进歌厅舞厅,惟一的爱好就是经常在村里转悠,到群众中和老少爷们儿说几句掏心窝子的话.在平平常常的转悠中,他不断地发现并解决了村子里、企业里的一些问题,就是在这平平常常的转悠中,他把南街村从一个破旧贫困的小村变成了"红色亿元村",从一个不起眼的小村变成了闻名国内外的乡村都市.     

领导者要保持一定的空间意识

美籍华裔建筑设计师贝聿铭说过这样一句话:“如果你要创造令人舒畅的户内空间的话,那你就得考虑各个立体结构之间那些空着的地方。”以空间和谐求取构造完美,是建筑设计中的一个重要原则。其实,不仅在建筑领域,在领导工作中同样也应树立一定的空间意识,也就是说,领导者思考问题、处理事情不能固守着一种态势,不能把事情做得太满,要保持一定的弹性,懂得为事物留下一定的发展余地和生长空间。领导工作是一项复杂的系统工程,领导者要成为“能工巧匠”,必须善于把空间理念贯穿于领导工作的全过程。一、领导者要保留一定的决策空间。当今时代,新…     

领导干部要进一步解放思想

思想是行动的先导,思想解放的程度决定着领导工作实践取得进展和成效的程度.江泽民同志最近号召我们要进一步解放思想,这是高瞻远瞩的战略思考.改革开放以来,我国社会主义建设事业之所以取得了举世瞩目的成就,一个根本原因就是邓小平同志抓住"什么是社会主义、怎样建设社会主义"这个根本问题,拨乱反正、实事求是,坚决冲破一切"左"的观念的束缚,转变观念,使全党的思想解放达到一个新的水平.     

领导者要有远见

领导，“率领”“引导”之意也。何以“率领”、“引导”，或者说具备什么条件才能“率领”、“引导”。第一位的要素就是领导者要站得高、看得远，也即要有远见。这既是“领导”这一概念质的规定，也是“领导”这一行为过程……     

领导者要正确运用批评语言

古人云:"人非圣贤,孰能无过?"有了过错,要不要批评?当然要.正如下属有了成绩,领导要及时加以肯定和赞扬,促其再接再厉不断进步一样,下属有了缺点和错误,领导也要及时指出并加以批评,使之"急刹车",避免其在错误的道路上越走越远,以致出现更大偏差而影响全局工作.     

一把手的"三点论"

一把手由于位置的特殊性,在我们强调集体领导的今天,其职能作用仍然占有突出的地位。一把手作用发挥得如何,不仅关系到所在地方和单位人气指数的高低、工作任务完成得好坏,而且关系到所在地方和单位各项工作发展势头的强弱、事业的兴衰。笔者根据20多年的实践,认为一把手的工作     

年轻干部要力戒浮躁

当前,年轻干部队伍的整体状况较好,素质普遍较高,在改革开放和经济建设中做出了积极的贡献.但是,我们还应该看到,不少年轻干部还缺乏严格的党内生活和艰苦环境的锻炼.在信念、作风、纪律、学习等方面心气高、性子急、坐不下、熬不住,呈现出典型的浮躁病.     

领导者要有点艺术素养

领导干部是带领人民群众进行改革开放、推进现代化建设的决策者和领路人,他们在具体的领导工作中,经常会遇到涉及文化艺术内容方面的决策问题,诸如城市规划、环境美化、标志工程建设等.