A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom

Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high‐voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three‐part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event to £0.9 billion.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

Risk Governance for Mobile Phones,Power Lines,and Other EMF Technologies

Power‐frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMFs) have been present in industrialized countries since the late 19th century and a considerable amount of knowledge has been accumulated as to potential health effects. The mainstream scientific view is that even if there is a risk, it is unlikely to be of major public‐health significance. EMFs from cellular communications and other radio‐frequency technologies have increased rapidly in the last decade. This technology is constantly changing, which makes continued research both more urgent and more challenging. While there are no persuasive data suggesting a health risk, research and particularly exposure assessment is still immature. The principal risk‐governance issue with power frequencies is how to respond to weak and uncertain scientific evidence that nonetheless causes public concern. For radio‐frequency electromagnetic fields, the issue is how to respond to large potential consequences and large public concern where only limited scientific evidence exists. We survey these issues and identify deficits in risk governance. Deficits in problem framing include both overstatement and understatement of the scientific evidence and of the consequences of taking protective measures, limited ability to detect early warnings of risk, and attempted reassurance that has sometimes been counterproductive. Other deficits relate to the limited public involvement mechanisms, and flaws in the identification and evaluation of tradeoffs in the selection of appropriate management strategies. We conclude that risk management of EMFs has certainly not been perfect, but for power frequencies it has evolved and now displays many successful features. Lessons from the power‐frequency experience can benefit risk governance of the radio‐frequency EMFs and other emerging technologies.     

Assessing Major Accident Risks to Support Land‐Use Planning Using a Severity‐Vulnerability Combination Method: A Case Study in Dagushan Peninsula,China

Major accident risks posed by chemical hazards have raised major social concerns in today's China. Land‐use planning has been adopted by many countries as one of the essential elements for accident prevention. This article aims at proposing a method to assess major accident risks to support land‐use planning in the vicinity of chemical installations. This method is based on the definition of risk by the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS (ARAMIS) project and it is an expansion application of severity and vulnerability assessment tools. The severity and vulnerability indexes from the ARAMIS methodology are employed to assess both the severity and vulnerability levels, respectively. A risk matrix is devised to support risk ranking and compatibility checking. The method consists of four main steps and is presented in geographical information‐system‐based maps. As an illustration, the proposed method is applied in Dagushan Peninsula, China. The case study indicated that the method could not only aid risk regulations on existing land‐use planning, but also support future land‐use planning by offering alternatives or influencing the plans at the development stage, and thus further enhance the roles and influence of land‐use planning in the accident prevention activities in China.     

Corporate Social Responsibility in Developing Countries as an Emerging Field of Study

Given the rising interest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) globally, its local expressions are as varied as they are increasingly visible in both developed and developing countries. This paper presents a multilevel review of the literature on CSR in developing countries and highlights the key differentiators and nuanced CSR‐related considerations that qualify it as a distinctive field of study. This review entails a content analysis of 452 articles spanning two‐and‐a‐half decades (1990–2015). Based on this comprehensive review, the authors identify the key differentiating attributes of the literature on CSR in developing countries in relation to depictions of how CSR is conceived or ‘CSR Thinking’ and depictions of how CSR is practiced and implemented or ‘CSR Doing’. The authors synthesize from there five key themes that capture the main aspects of variation in this literature, namely: (1) complex institutional antecedents within the national business system (NBS); (2) complex macro‐level antecedents outside the NBS; (3) the salience of multiple actors involved in formal and informal governance; (4) hybridized and other nuanced forms of CSR expressions; and (5) varied scope of developmental and detrimental CSR consequences. The paper concludes by accentuating how the nuanced forms of CSR in the developing world are invariably contextualized and locally shaped by multi‐level factors and actors embedded within wider formal and informal governance systems.     

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor‐network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five‐stage process of co‐selection, co‐design, co‐planning, and co‐regulation to facilitate the co‐production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement.     

Adaptive Governance,Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change,Drought, and Flood

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi‐structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to “risk” that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.     

Rural Nevada and Climate Change: Vulnerability,Beliefs, and Risk Perception

In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change‐related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers’ and farmers’ sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water‐dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change‐specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception.     

Decision Making for Group Risk Reduction: Dealing with Epistemic Uncertainty

Group risk is usually represented by FN curves showing the frequency of different accident sizes for a given activity. Many governments regulate group risk through FN criterion lines, which define the tolerable location of an FN curve. However, to compare different risk reduction alternatives, one must be able to rank FN curves. The two main problems in doing this are that the FN curve contains multiple frequencies, and that there are usually large epistemic uncertainties about the curve. Since the mid 1970s, a number of authors have used the concept of “disutility” to summarize FN curves in which a family of disutility functions was defined with a single parameter controlling the degree of “risk aversion.” Here, we show it to be risk neutral, disaster averse, and insensitive to epistemic uncertainty on accident frequencies. A new approach is outlined that has a number of attractive properties. The formulation allows us to distinguish between risk aversion and disaster aversion, two concepts that have been confused in the literature until now. A two‐parameter family of disutilities generalizing the previous approach is defined, where one parameter controls risk aversion and the other disaster aversion. The family is sensitive to epistemic uncertainties. Such disutilities may, for example, be used to compare the impact of system design changes on group risks, or might form the basis for valuing reductions in group risk in a cost‐benefit analysis.     

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone,Australia

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio‐economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision‐making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement.     

How Independent,Competent and Incentivized Should Non‐executive Directors Be? An Empirical Investigation of Good Governance Codes

There is a commonly held conviction among governance scholars and practitioners that increasing the number of non‐executive directors may have beneficial effects on board practices. This view has gained momentum after each wave of scandals. Given the relevance of the issue in governance studies and practices, the aim of this paper is to investigate how independent, competent and incentivized non‐executive directors should be according to governance scholars and board best practices. To answer this question, we conducted a review of the literature on non‐executive directors. We then collected corporate governance codes developed worldwide at the end of 2005, and made a comparative analysis of their recommendations about the independence, the competencies and the incentives of non‐executive directors. Our results show that (i) non‐executive directors' independence is a commonly recommended governance practice, the meaning of which differs widely among countries; (ii) non‐executive directors' competencies and incentives are not considered a governance issue to be regulated in detail; (iii) agency theory and the search for appropriate board demography tend to dominate the recommendations of governance literature and codes. Our findings have implications for both research and practice.     

Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

In December 2015, a cyber‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterfactual risk analysis as part of a new vulnerability assessment framework. The method is developed in the context of the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of a Ukrainian‐style cyber‐physical attack taking place on the electricity distribution network serving London and its surrounding regions. A key finding is that if decision‐makers wish to mitigate major population disruptions, then they must invest resources more‐or‐less equally across all substations, to prevent the scaling of a cyber‐physical attack. However, there are some substations associated with higher economic value due to their support of other Critical National Infrastructures assets, which justifies the allocation of additional cyber security investment to reduce the chance of cascading failure. Further cyber‐physical vulnerability research must address the tradeoffs inherent in a system made up of multiple institutions with different strategic risk mitigation objectives and metrics of value, such as governments, infrastructure operators, and commercial consumers of infrastructure services.     

Local Spatial and Temporal Factors Influencing Population and Societal Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

The identification of societal vulnerable counties and regions and the factors contributing to social vulnerability are crucial for effective disaster risk management. Significant advances have been made in the study of social vulnerability over the past two decades, but we still know little regarding China's societal vulnerability profiles, especially at the county level. This study investigates the county‐level spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in China from 1980 to 2010. Based on China's four most recent population censuses of 2,361 counties and their corresponding socioeconomic data, a social vulnerability index for each county was created using factor analysis. Exploratory spatial data analysis, including global and local autocorrelations, was applied to reveal the spatial patterns of county‐level social vulnerability. The results demonstrate that the dynamic characteristics of China's county‐level social vulnerability are notably distinct, and the dominant contributors to societal vulnerability for all of the years studied were rural character, development (urbanization), and economic status. The spatial clustering patterns of social vulnerability to natural disasters in China exhibited a gathering–scattering–gathering pattern over time. Further investigations indicate that many counties in the eastern coastal area of China are experiencing a detectable increase in social vulnerability, whereas the societal vulnerability of many counties in the western and northern areas of China has significantly decreased over the past three decades. These findings will provide policymakers with a sound scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions.     

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami‐inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders.     

TOWARD A “NEW ARCHITECTURE” FOR POM

The field of POM is steadily expanding its scope. This allows us to pursue interesting new fields of inquiry and makes us ever more relevant to the needs of practitioners. But it also increases the risk that over time our efforts will become fragmented and unfocused, causing us to slowly lose our sense of community and break up into separate camps. In this paper I ask, “What kind of new organizing framework, or ‘architecture,’ will allow us to maintain our sense of community as our interests diverge?” I describe the experience of one academic organization that faced a similar problem several years ago and how the situation was resolved. This experience leads us to propose a possible solution to Pom's emerging problem: engage with real operations managers and focus our efforts on helping them deal with the actual problems they are facing in today's complex and fast‐changing world.     

Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing

A few years after the introduction of the Amato and Dini laws, a renewed debate on reforming the Italian pension system and on modifying its structure and technical parameters is taking place. The present work simulates individual reactions to systemic changes, distinguishing among the different typologies of workers the categories of dependent (private and public) and self‐employed ones. This approach allows us to perform a general micro‐analysis of the effects of past reforms on family pension income distribution and average individual pension benefits. Furthermore, it makes it possible to assess the consequences of legislator's choices such as the indexation of the lowest pensions (‘assegni sociali’ and ‘pensioni integrate al minimo’) to wages or to inflation. Finally, a Monte Carlo analysis projects future inequality and poverty trends with a remarkable accuracy and allows to verify the robustness of our results.     

Understanding founder–CEO’s replacement in venture-backed companies: A theoretical and empirical analysis

This research provides an accurate picture of situations in which founder–CEOs are replaced (or not) by venture capitalists. Our analysis aims to go further than the schematic case of the founder being simply dismissed by investors in a conflictual context. We first review the literature dedicated to this subject in the light of the agency theory (AT) and the resource-based view (RBV). However, the limits of these theoretical frameworks lead us to investigate their extensions: the entrenchment theory (ET), the dynamic capabilities approach (DCA) and the cognitive governance perspective (CGP). In a second phase, in order to decode the replacement process, we designed an exploratory methodology based on qualitative data, thus deepening our understanding of the issues it entails in venture-backed companies. Finally, this field analysis allows us to build a typology of replacement scenarii, with each scenario being interpreted by combining relevant theories to explain all aspects of it. In line with the AT, the ET focuses on the FCs strategy to retain their position. The DCA analyses the CEOs’ resources from a dynamic angle, in accordance with the RBV. The CGP is mobilised to characterise a conflict originating in a lack of skills. These results lead us to rethink the role of time and the nature of conflicts in the relationships between FCs and venture capitalists.     

International Evidence on the Determinants of Organizational Ethical Vulnerability

This paper proposes a model to explain what makes organizations ethically vulnerable. Drawing upon legitimacy, institutional, agency and individual moral reasoning theories we consider three sets of explanatory factors and examine their association with organizational ethical vulnerability. The three sets comprise external institutional context, internal corporate governance mechanisms and organizational ethical infrastructure. We combine these three sets of factors and develop an analytical framework for classifying ethical issues and propose a new model of organizational ethical vulnerability. We test our model on a sample of 253 firms that were involved in ethical misconduct and compare them with a matched sample of the same number of firms from 28 different countries. The results suggest that weak regulatory environment and internal corporate governance, combined with profitability warnings or losses in the preceding year, increase organizational ethical vulnerability. We find counterintuitive evidence suggesting that firms’ involvement in bribery and corruption prevention training programmes is positively associated with the likelihood of ethical vulnerability. By synthesizing insights about individual and corporate behaviour from multiple theories, this study extends existing analytical literature on business ethics. Our findings have implications for firms’ external regulatory settings, corporate governance mechanisms and organizational ethical infrastructure.     

Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical Evidence from Germany and France

Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk‐reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood‐coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision‐making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood‐prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood‐coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood‐coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood‐coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood‐preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood‐coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.     

On Some Recent Definitions and Analysis Frameworks for Risk,Vulnerability, and Resilience

Recently, considerable attention has been paid to a systems‐based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It is argued that risk, vulnerability, and resilience are inherently and fundamentally functions of the states of the system and its environment. Vulnerability is defined as the manifestation of the inherent states of the system that can be subjected to a natural hazard or be exploited to adversely affect that system, whereas resilience is defined as the ability of the system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time, and composite costs, and risks. Risk, on the other hand, is probability based, defined by the probability and severity of adverse effects (i.e., the consequences). In this article, we look more closely into this approach. It is observed that the key concepts are inconsistent in the sense that the uncertainty (probability) dimension is included for the risk definition but not for vulnerability and resilience. In the article, we question the rationale for this inconsistency. The suggested approach is compared with an alternative framework that provides a logically defined structure for risk, vulnerability, and resilience, where all three concepts are incorporating the uncertainty (probability) dimension.