An introduction experiment of an herbivorous lady beetle: Characteristics of the adult population

In May 1971, 45 adults of an herbivorous lady beetleEpilachna niponica (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) from Asiu Experimental Forest were introduced into a botanical garden of Kyoto University, where is 10 km south of the southern limits of its distribution with being 3–5°C warmer than the original site. The introduced population of the lady beetle was thus investigated from 1975 to 1981. Mark-release-recapture experiments were applied to individual adult beetles, to estimate population size and daily survival rate. Overwintering adults emerged from hibernation around early April, reaching peak numbers in late April to early May, then gradually declined to late June. No adults remained at the end of June. Adult survival was maintained at a high level to early May, and declined consistently until late in the reproductive season. New adults began to emerge in late June and quickly reached a peak in early July; thereafter they decreased in number and had entered hibernation by late October. In spite of seasonally deteriorating food resources and heat stress in summer, new adults showed moderately high survival during the inimical period. New adults which emerged later in the season tended to be smaller in body size than those that emerged early. The proportion of females in the new adult population gradually increased throughout the pre-hibernating period, suggesting that male-biased mortality occurred during this period. When compared to the source population, the introduced population had a higher rate of population growth. Coupled with the improved population growth, heavy leaf damage during the larval period suggested that intensive intraspecific competition was most likely to occur among larvae in the introduced population.     

The sterile insect release method on species with two-stage life cycles

Summary A continuous-time density dependent model was constructed of a species with a two stage life cycle. This model has a unique stable equilibrium. With the introduction of steriles at constant rate a second positive unstable steady state appears; this condition does not depend on the mode of action within the life cycle of the density dependence or its relative strength. A comparison was made of the effects of having the density dependence in each of larval and adult recruitment and larval and adult losses. It was found that if only adult recruitment is denisty dependent, then adult numbers can actually increase with the release of steriles provided density independent recruitment greatly exceeds density independent losses. Sterile releases were often more effective against larvae than against adults, although in some cases not importantly so. Density dependence in recruitment gives much lower equilibrium values than when density dependence of comparable strength is in the mortality. The release rates needed to cause extinction were generally between 0.1 and 0.5 of the larval equilibrium with no sterile releases except when the density dependence is predominantly in adult recruitment, in which case much higher release rates are required.     

Demographic attributes of an introduced herbivorous lady beetle

Demographic attributes of the adults of an introduced herbivorous lady beetleEpilachna niponica (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) were investigated from 1975 to 1981 in the Botanical Garden of Kyoto University. Population growth rate varied from 4.8 to 16.8 throughout the study period. Fecundity and mortality in the late larval period contributed most to annual changes in the population growth rate. Population growth rate was negatively correlated with the density of overwintering adults. Adult survival from emergence to the reproductive season, which varied from 0.03 to 0.36 throughout the study, was almost completely determined by survival during the pre-hibernation period. Adult survival to the preproductive season changed in a size- and sex-dependent manner. Larger adults survived better than smaller individuals; male-biased mortality occurred from adult emergence to the reproductive age. Severe intraspecific competition among late instar larvae due to host plant defoliation produced a higher proportion of small-sized adults, resulting in lower adult survival to hibernation. The introduced population had a higher population growth rate and a lower adult survival to the reproductive season than the source population.     

Trends and Socioeconomic Gradients in Adult Mortality around the Developing World

We combine data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys from 46 countries to analyze trends and socioeconomic differences in adult mortality, calculating mortality based on the sibling mortality reports collected from female respondents aged 15–49. The analysis yields four main findings. First, adult mortality is different from child mortality: while under‐5 mortality shows a definite improving trend over time, adult mortality does not, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. The second main finding is the increase in adult mortality in sub‐Saharan African countries. The increase is dramatic among those most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Mortality rates in the highest HIV‐prevalence countries of southern Africa exceed those in countries that experienced episodes of armed conflict. Third, even in sub‐Saharan countries where HIV prevalence is not as high, mortality rates appear to be at best stagnating, and even increasing in several cases. Finally, the main dimension along which mortality appears to differ in the aggregate is by sex. Adult mortality rates in sub‐Saharan Africa have risen substantially higher for men than for women—especially so in the high HIV‐prevalence countries. On the whole, the data do not show large gaps by urban/rural residence or by school attainment.     

Steep increase in best-practice cohort life expectancy

We analyze trends in best-practice life expectancy among female cohorts born from 1870 to 1950. Cohorts experience declining rather than constant death rates, and cohort life expectancy usually exceeds period life expectancy. Unobserved mortality rates in non-extinct cohorts are estimated using the Lee-Carter model for mortality in 1960–2008. Best-practice cohort and period life expectancies increased nearly linearly. Across cohorts born from 1870 to 1920 the annual increase in cohort length of life was 0.43 years. Across calendar years from 1870 to 2008, the annual increase was 0.28 years. Cohort life expectancy increased from 53.7 years in the 1870 cohort to 83.8 years in the 1950 cohort. The corresponding cohort/period longevity gap increased from 1.2 to 10.3 years. Among younger cohorts, survival to advanced ages is substantially higher than could have been anticipated by period mortality regimes when these cohorts were young or middle-aged. A large proportion of the additional expected years of life are being lived at ages 65 and older. This substantially changes the balance between the stages of the life cycle.     

A field experiment on dispersal of newly emerged adults ofMonochamus alternatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

Summary Newly-emerged adults ofMonochamus alternatus aged 1 to 5 days were code-numbered with lacquer paint and released by placing them on the trunks of one or two trees in aPinus thunbergii stand at weekly intervals during the beetle emergence period from 1980 to 1983. Beetles were captured at weekly intervals from one week after the first day of release. Determinations were made on the distance and direction of beetle dispersal during a week after release and analysed by a method of Inoue (1978). When the stand canopy was closed, the rate of beetle’s stay on trees was 0.56 per week. The beetles dispersed at random by walk and flight. When the pine stand was sparse, the rate of beetle’s stay on trees was 0.02–0.30 per week. They dispersed at random by flight. The average distances traversed were estimated to be 7.1–37.8 m for the first week after emergence. Using other method, the average distance traversed was estimated to be 10–20 m for each week through the first 3 weeks after release. The results of stepwise multiple regression analysis and a simple field experiment suggested that the dispersal of newly-emerged beetles was affected by stand density, number of beetles emerging from individual dead trees, maximum air temperature, and precipitation.     

Simultaneous estimation of mortality and dispersal rates of an artificially released population

Mark-recapture methods cannot estimate both mortality and dispersal rates of a wild population simultaneously. However, when an artificially cultured population is released into an area, the initial population size and the initial population distribution are usually known. If artificially cultured individuals are released with marks or distinguished from wild individuals or if no wild individual exists in the study area, we can estimate both the mortality and dispersal rates of the artificial population. The numbers of dispersed and dead individuals are estimated from the dispersal rate from the diffusion model and the total decreasing rate estimated from a mark-recapture data. We can estimate both the time-dependent and time-independent dispersal rates from the data. We choose the best fit model that has the smallest value of Akaike's Information Criteria. We also consider ‘concentric circles approximation” of spatial distribution, in which the cumulative and frequency distributions are analytically obtained.     

Deadly Cities? Spatial Inequalities in Mortality in sub‐Saharan Africa

We investigate whether sub‐Saharan African countries are affected by an “urban mortality penalty” repeating the history of industrialized countries during the nineteenth century. We analyze Demographic and Health Surveys from several sub‐Saharan African countries for differences in child and adult mortality between rural and urban areas. For the first decade of the 2000s, our findings indicate that child mortality is higher in rural than in urban areas for all countries. On average, child mortality rates are 13.6 percent in rural areas and 10.8 percent in urban areas. In contrast, average urban adult mortality rates (14.1 percent) have exceeded rural adult mortality rates (12.4 percent). Child mortality rates are on average 65 percent higher in urban slums than in formal settlements. Child mortality rates in slum areas are, however, still lower than or equal to those in rural areas for most countries in our sample.     

New estimates of the vital rates of the United States black population during the nineteenth century

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations studyThe Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000m (0)) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end.     

Stable, semi-stable populations and growth potential

Abstract Starting from the definition of a Malthusian population given by Alfred J. Lotka, the author recalls how the concept of stable population is introduced in demography, first as a particular case of stable populations, and secondly as a limit of a demographic evolutionary process in which female age-specific fertility rates and age-specific mortality rates remain constant. Then he defines a new concept: the semi-stable population which is a population with a constant age distribution. He shows that such a population coincides at any point of time with the stable population corresponding to the mortality and the fertility at this point of time. In the remaining part of the paper it is shown how the concept of a stable population can be used for defining a coefficient of inertia which measures the resistance of a population to modification of its course as a consequence of changing fertility and mortality. Some formulae are established to calculate this coefficient first for an arbitrary population, and secondly for a semistable population. In this second case the formula is particularly simple. It appears as a product of three terms: the expectation of life at birth in years, the crude birth rate, and a coefficient depending on the rate of growth and for which a numerical table is easy to establish.     

Factors affecting oviposition rate in the flour beetleTribolium castaneum and the origin of the population regulation mechanism

Summary The effects of egg cannibalism, conditioned medium and the presence of quinone secretions on oviposition rate were studied using single pairs of adults to eliminate any direct crowding effects. Most measurements were made on beetles confined to the surface of the flour medium in plastic towers. Oviposition rate was decreased by about 58% when pairs were transferred from fresh to conditioned medium; lowered about 25% when only quinones were present and the medium was still fresh; and enhanced 35% in dry conditions when beetles were provided with eggs to eat. Both the lowered oviposition rate in confined cultures and egg-eating may be explained by natural selection at the individual level. Cannibalizing eggs boosts a female's oviposition rate. The presence of quinones or conditioned medium indicates high population densities and acts as a signal for ceasing oviposition and dispersing to avoid high egg mortality. In confined populations, this results in population regulation, while in open populations, this strategy is a mechanism to avoid competition. It implies that the resource shortages normally experienced by such organisms are relative, not absolute.     

Population dynamics of a phytophagous lady-beetle,Epilachna vigintioctopunctata (Fabricius), living in spatio-temporally heterogeneous habitats. III. Effects of habitat structure on population dynamics

Temporal changes in the population size of a phytophagous lady-beetle were analyzed to identify mechanisms affecting lady-beetle population dynamics at different spatial scales. The study area (15 ha) included 18 habitat patches. The major host plants were potato for first generation larvae and eggplant for second generation larvae. The habitat patches were classified into three groups according to the major host plants in each patch: P-E patches (both host plants available), P patches (potato only), and E patches (eggplant only). The winter disappearance of adults in the whole study area, and larval mortality in E patches were apparently the most important factors disturbing the overall population density. Density-dependent movement of females appeared to have the greatest stabilizing effect on the yearly fluctuation of population density. Rate of increase of female adults from the first to the second generation,R, was generally higher on eggplants in E patches than in P-E patches because the adult density of the first generation was much higher in P-E patches. The yearly fluctuation of adult density in each generation tended to be less in patches with all habitat components necessary for the full life cycle (P-E patches). However, such patches were not favorable for first generation females, as indicated by the lower rate of increase from the first to the second generation. The density and stability of lady-beetle populations is discussed in relation to habitat structure.     

俄罗斯人口发展状况及对中国的启示

本文利用俄罗斯的历史人口数据,对俄罗斯人口数量和结构变动状况进行了分析,并对俄罗斯三次人口转型中的社会经济情况变化对人口变动状况的影响进行了分析。结果表明,俄罗斯的人口出生率下降很快,人口死亡率升高,总和生育率已远低于替代水平,因此人口自然增长率迅速下降,总人口数长期处于下降通道,出生预期寿命不增反降,特别是男性出生预期寿命远低于女性出生预期寿命。在推动人口增长的社会经济相关措施实施后,俄罗斯人口数量仍不能增加,这对目前总和生育率已经很低的中国有一定的借鉴意义。     

Aging in the Context of Cohort Evolution and Mortality Selection

This study examines historical patterns of aging through the perspectives of cohort evolution and mortality selection, where the former emphasizes the correlation across cohorts in the age dependence of mortality rates, and the latter emphasizes cohort change in the acceleration of mortality over the life course. In the analysis of historical cohort mortality data, I find support for both perspectives. The rate of demographic aging, or the rate at which mortality accelerates past age 70, is not fixed across cohorts; rather, it is affected by the extent of mortality selection at young and late ages. This causes later cohorts to have higher rates of demographic aging than earlier cohorts. The rate of biological aging, approximating the rate of the senescence process, significantly declined between the mid- and late-nineteenth century birth cohorts and stabilized afterward. Unlike the rate of demographic aging, the rate of biological aging is not affected by mortality selection earlier in the life course but rather by cross-cohort changes in young-age mortality, which cause lower rates of biological aging in old age among later cohorts. These findings enrich theories of cohort evolution and have implications for the study of limits on the human lifespan and evolution of aging.     

Vital rates in India 1961-71 estimated from 1971 census data

Abstract In the last decade the increase in the population of India, while, of course, very large, was smaller than predicted by official forecasts. With the use of recent census and sample registration data - in the absence of age-specific rates and adequate vital statistics - this paper provides estimates of fertility and mortality through the reverse-survival and forward-projection methods. Birth rates are estimated as 40·5-42, death rates as 18-20, and life expectancy at birth as 45-46 years. Mortality decline had been smaller than forecast but more than during any comparable period in the past, even though current mortality levels, particularly infant mortality, are still high. Males continue to have a longer life expectation than females, with a difference that has widened in the past decade. The decline of between seven and ten per cent in the crude birth rate is largely due to changes in marital fertility and to some extent to changes in age and marital composition. Because of greater decline in death rates than birth rates, the 1961-71 decade shows a higher rate of population growth than previous periods.     

Factors affecting body size variation within a population of an herbivorous lady beetle,Henosepilachna niponica (Lewis)

Summary Size variation in newly-emerged adults was examined in two different local populations of an herbivorous lady beetle,Henosepilachna niponica, for 1976–80. Mean adult size of both sexes changed rather synchronously in the two populations over 5 years. Body size of adult beetles apparently decreased with increasing leaf damage of the plants on which they developed. Adult beetles which emerged late in the season, associated with increasing food deterioration, were smaller than those which emerged early. Ecological consequences of adult size variation is discussed in terms of oviposition site selection.     

Continuous population estimates forDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) occurring in infestations

Summary Infestations ofDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. are often observed to enlarge continuously by the colonization of new hosts in a pattern similar to a forest fire. This pattern of infestation growth presents unique problems in quantitatively estimating populations ofD. frontalis. Beetle populations on each infested tree in an infestation go through five processes: attack, oviposition, reemergence, survivorship, and emergence. These processes, which have been described mathematically in the literature, each take several days for completion. In order to follow the distribution and abundance ofD. frontalis throughout the course of development of a spot, we need a daily estimate of the number of beetles involved in each process on every tree. Since it is not practical to sample each tree daily, we developed a procedure whereby quantitative estimation procedures for within-tree populations were used in combination with the mathematical models for the life processes to produce a daily record of the number of adults successfully attacking trees, the number of eggs oviposited, the number of beetles reemerging, number of beetles surviving within the trees, and the number of beetles emerging. These daily estimates were then summarized for all trees in the spot for the duration of the infestation. The daily record of populations ofD. frontalis, used with information on infestation geometry, were suggested to be of value in describing and elucidating several important facets of population dynamics including dispersal patterns within infestations, between tree beetle loss (mortality), and time lags among the various population processes. The information reported can be used to develop simulation models of population dynamics or to validate existing models. Texas Agric. Experiment Stn. TA No. 14689.     

A macrodynamic analysis of changes in mortality indexes in the United States, 1946–75: Some preliminary results

This paper extends earlier research by Brenner and by Land and Felson on the specification and estimation of macrodynamic structural-equation models to explain changes in American mortality indexes as a function of exogenous changes in societal conditions (social, demographic, economic, and health care). After reviewing the record of annual changes in several general and cause — specific mortality indexes for the post-World War II United States, patterns of temporal covariation in the indexes are discussed and some tentative structural-equation models are described. Among other findings, these models indicate: (1) that changes in the age structure of the American population have substantial impacts on changes in mortality rates for diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems as well as on deaths due to cirrhosis of the liver, accidents, and violence; (2) that the infective and parasitic diseases mortality rate is more closely related to per capita public health expenditures than to improvements in the general level of living in this post — war period; (3) that the business cycle, as indexed by the unemployment rate, has significant impacts on the cardiovascular, accident, and violence mortality rates; (4) that Brenner's finding of a positive association of an increase in the unemployment rate with an increase in cardiovascular diseases mortality two to three years later is partially mediated by an increase in per capita cigarette consumption during the economic recovery following a recession; (5) that an increase in the per capita level of cigarette consumption increases the respiratory systems mortality rate; (6) that both the general and the respiratory neoplasms mortality rates are more strongly affected by long-term moving averages of annual per capita levels of cigarette consumption than by single-years levels; (7) that the level of the degenerative diseases mortality rate is positively affected by an increase in per capita liquor consumption and negatively affected by an increase in health care utilization; (8) that the percentage of all vehicles traveling on highways at high speed is the exposure index most closely associated (of several that were studied) to the motor vehicle accident mortality rate; (9) that the levels of the maternal and infant mortality rates are positively related to an increase in the fertility rate (exposure) and negatively related to those advances in health care services associated with hospital births; (10) that the accuracy with which short-term changes in the crude mortality rate can be predicted from a knowledge of cause-specific mortality rates and how the latter are affected by societal conditions is effectively limited by the degree of accuracy of predictions of the respiratory diseases mortality rate because of its volatile influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis component; and (11) that short-term changes in the life expectancy index can be somewhat more accurately predicted from such knowledge. Although most of these relationships have been noted before in mortality studies, only a small fraction have been studied in a macrodynamic structural-equation models context. These findings thus constitute a baseline of statistical evidence which can be explored in future research.     

Mortality in Ghana: Evidence from the cape coast project data

Abstract This paper deals with the estimation of mortality for a rural community of about 20,000 persons in the rain-forest area of south-west Ghana. Specifically, infant, child and adult mortality estimates have been obtained by the application of a wide range of direct and indirect methods of measuring mortality from the different statistics collected by a longitudinal mortality and fertility project conducted during 1974-7. It was noted that infant and childhood mortality rates obtained from death registrations were consistent with those rates yielded by pregnancy histories and child survival statistics. However, the adult mortality estimates derived from orphanhood statistics tended to be lower than those suggested by death registrations. The analysis revealed an infant mortality rate of 100 for boys and 84 for girls, equal childhood mortality rates for boys and girls (85-6), a lower expectation of life at birth for men (45.8 years) than for women (52.8), and a much more severe incidence of mortality among men aged over 40 than for women at the corresponding ages.     

Mortality in Ghana: Evidence from the cape coast project data

This paper deals with the estimation of mortality for a rural community of about 20,000 persons in the rain-forest area of south-west Ghana. Specifically, infant, child and adult mortality estimates have been obtained by the application of a wide range of direct and indirect methods of measuring mortality from the different statistics collected by a longitudinal mortality and fertility project conducted during 1974–7. It was noted that infant and childhood mortality rates obtained from death registrations were consistent with those rates yielded by pregnancy histories and child survival statistics. However, the adult mortality estimates derived from orphanhood statistics tended to be lower than those suggested by death registrations. The analysis revealed an infant mortality rate of 100 for boys and 84 for girls, equal childhood mortality rates for boys and girls (85–6), a lower expectation of life at birth for men (45.8 years) than for women (52.8), and a much more severe incidence of mortality among men aged over 40 than for women at the corresponding ages.