时政资讯

正国务院决定建立全国统一的城乡居民基本养老保险制度国务院总理李克强2月7日主持召开国务院常务会议,决定合并新型农村社会养老保险和城镇居民社会养老保险,建立全国统一的城乡居民基本养老保险制度。会议决定,在已基本实现新型农村社会养老保险、城镇居民社会养老保险全覆盖的基础上,依法将这两项制度合并实施,在全国范围内建立统一的城乡居民基本养老保险制度,并在制度模式、筹资方式、待遇支付等方面与合并前的新型农村社会养老保险和城镇     

关于提高城镇企业职工基本养老金的探讨

基本养老金是我国城镇企业职工最主要的养老保险待遇,它是劳动者在年老或丧失劳动能力后,按照国家规定的计发办法,按月享受的以货币形式支付的养老保险待遇,其待遇高低不仅反映了职工退休后物质生活的保障程度,而且在一定程序上也反映出科学发展观和构建和谐社会的落实情况。提高城镇企业职工基本养老金是党和政府一直关心的问题,也是我国经济发展成果惠及人民群众的必然要求。     

经理报酬影响因素的结构方程模型实证分析

本文使用结构方程模型部分验证了经理报酬水平与影响它的基准因素、治理因素和权变因素等之间的结构关系，发现对经理报酬水平起决定作用的主要是宏观方面因素，包括公司所在地区、公司上市时期以及公司体制特征等；而微观治理因素和经理人力资本因素则不显著。模型拟合结果表明，经理报酬水平是影响公司所在地区、上市时期两因素与公司绩效之间关系的中间变量。     

消费者选择的Multinomial Logit模型及其应用——以我国轿车市场为例

本文运用Multinomial logit(MNL)模型研究消费者在选择产品过程中其个人特征对消费者选择某个特定因素作为首选因素的影响以及相应的边际影响效果.通过对我国轿车消费者购买选择的实证研究结果表明MNL模型能够很好的反映轿车消费者个人特征和消费者购车时选择特定的因素作为首选因素的关系;实证结果发现消费者选择的首选因素会随着消费者个人特征的不同而发生变化.     

组织承诺影响因素初析

在以往研究的基础上,本文利用文献分析方法对影响组织承诺的因素进行了研究,研究发现影响员工组织承诺的因素可分为工作内因素与工作外因素;其中工作外因素主要包括家庭及亲属责任响应;工作外因素这包括工作特征、个人特征、领导特征及组织结构。     

云南省民族地区农民参加新型农村社会养老保险影响因素分析

本文以云南省民族地区414户农户调查数据为基础,利用Logistic回归模型对云南省民族地区农民是否愿意参加新型农村社会养老保险影响因素进行了分析。分析结果显示,农民的年龄、农民对新农保的了解程度和政府对新农保的宣传力度对云南省民族地区农民参保意愿有显著影响,民族、性别、教育程度与以及一些列家庭特征变量对云南省民族地区农民参保意愿没有显著影响。     

趋势

我国社保体系日臻完善十一五期间,在建立覆盖城乡社会保障体系的目标指引下,城镇企业职工养老保险转移接续、农民工养老保险、城镇居民基本医疗保险、新农保、城镇居民生育保障试点等一系列制度     

新生代农民工就业稳定性的影响因素

新生代农民工是我国产业工人的重要组成部分,就业的稳定性影响着这一群体的发展。笔者采取问卷调查方式,根据获得的新生代农民工的个人、职业、社交三个方面的数据,运用logistic回归模型进行实证分析,得出的结论是：个人因素中的性别、年龄、外出工作年限、技能等因素;职位特征中的每天工作时间、工作单位性质、是否签订劳动合同等因素;社交网络中的是否参加社会组织等因素,对新生代农民工就业的稳定性影响显著。     

县域中小企业贷款违约行为与信用风险实证分析

利用实地调查资料,采用logit模型对我国县域中小企业贷款违约的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明:财务状况特别是资本结构、资产周转状况、股权状况对有显著的影响;企业家个人特征特别是年龄、受教育程度和是否持股对企业信用风险有较大影响;企业所在地域的经济发展水平对企业信用风险也有一定影响作用,当地经济发展水平越高,则企业贷款的信用风险越小。基于logit模型估计结果,利用一个小样本数据分析了贷款合同的有关条款对中小企业违约的影响,结果显示:贷款利率、期限、贷款金额和担保品数额与我国县域中小企业目前违约率之间的关系不太明显。     

产业结构变动与经济周期波动——基于劳动力市场视角的分析与检验

本文旨在从劳动力市场视角分析我国产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响机理。首先,通过动态因子模型从各省份城镇单位人均工资变动和就业人数变动中提取全国经济周期波动,同时捕捉省份城镇单位人均工资变动、就业人数变动与全国经济周期波动的协动程度,揭示出产业结构变动对经济周期波动影响的两条路径。然后,运用贝叶斯空间计量模型研究三次产业以及第二产业分行业通过上述两条影响路径对经济周期波动的影响。研究结果显示,第一产业对经济周期波动影响较为模糊,第二、第三产业在两条影响路径上对经济周期波动具有显著的非对称加剧作用,而制造业是第二产业经济周期波动效应的主要来源。本文的研究结论对于我国当前如何在加快产业结构升级过程中缓解经济周期波动下行压力具有重要的政策含义。     

Policy tenure under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

In the United States, insurance against flood hazard (inland flooding or storm surge from hurricanes) has been provided mainly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) since 1968. The NFIP covers $1.23 trillion of assets today. This article provides the first analysis of flood insurance tenure ever undertaken: that is, the number of years that people keep their flood insurance policy before letting it lapse. Our analysis of the entire portfolio of the NFIP over the period 2001-2009 reveals that the median tenure of new policies during that time is between two and four years; it is also relatively stable over time and levels of flood hazard. Prior flood experience can affect tenure: people who have experienced small flood claims tend to hold onto their insurance longer; people who have experienced large flood claims tend to let their insurance lapse sooner. To overcome the policy and governance challenges posed by homeowners' inadequate insurance coverage, we discuss policy recommendations that include for banks and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) strengthening their requirements and the introduction of multiyear flood insurance contracts attached to the property, both of which are likely to provide more coverage stability and encourage investments in risk-reduction measures.     

比例数据基于Tobit分位数回归模型的贝叶斯变量选择

针对家庭商业健康保险参保比例在[0,1]闭区间上取值的特点,本文基于Tobit模型给出了比例响应数据的贝叶斯分位数回归建模方法。通过引入回归系数的“Spike-and-slab”先验分布,应用EM算法我们提出了基于门限规则的贝叶斯变量选择方法。大量数值模拟研究验证了所提的贝叶斯变量选择方法的有效性,且具有易操作、计算量小等优点。最后,将此方法应用到家庭商业健康保险数据的实证分析,研究不同分位数水平下家庭健康保险参保比例的影响因素,得到了许多有意义的研究结果。     

城市化建设在西部开发中的重要作用研究

西部地区生态环境脆弱,基础设施较差,要想尽快缩小东西部之间的发展差距,进行大规模的西部开发,必须在生态建设和环境保护的前提下,尽快、有序地把农村人口向城市转移,加快城市化建设的步伐。在城市化建设的过程中,大、中城市是建设的重点;城市经济辐射能力的加强、投资环境的改善和第三产业的规模经济效益是城市化发展的方向;在互联网日益普及、国家全面实施"禁采"、"禁伐"以及"退耕还林、还草"的背景下,尽快改革目前的二元户籍制度,建立新的、科学公正的一元户籍制度,是加快城市化进程的必要条件;另外,西部的城市化建设还必须考虑东西联动和区域经济不平衡协调发展等因素。     

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities

Most existing risk management models for process industries do not consider the effect of insurance coverage, which results in an overestimation of overall risk. A model is presented in this article to study the effect of insurance coverage of health, safety, environmental, and business risks. The effect of insurance recovery is modeled through the application of adjustment factors by considering the stochastic factors affecting insurance recovery. The insurance contract's conditions, deductibles, and policy limits are considered in developing the insurance recovery adjustment factors. Copula functions and Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop the distribution of the aggregate loss by considering the dependence among loss classes. A case study is used to demonstrate both the practical application of the proposed insurance model to improve management decisions, and the mitigating effect of insurance to minimize the residual risk.     

不同主体层次中组织知识转化的影响因素研究

基于不同主体层次中组织知识转化的影响因素及其研究假设,采用向每个样本企业发放三份调查问卷的方式获得相关的数据,进行深入地实证分析发现:需求-激励-联系是影响组织知识转化的最主要因素,信任和学习起到一种调节及保障的作用,而我国企业的组织知识嵌入程度不高;不同所有制企业之间在组织知识转化影响因素上不存在显著差异,但是各主体层次中的知识转化过程差异性显著;需求-激励-联系和学习对各个主体层次中知识转化都具有显著的正向影响,信任对个人层次知识转化具有显著的正向影响,而对团队和组织层次知识转化没有显著影响,嵌入对各主体层次知识转化都没有任何的显著影响。     

保险需求悖论的解释——来自中国汽车险市场的实证研究

经典的保险需求模型认为绝对风险规避系数递减时保险是一个劣质品,也就是说保险需求会随着财富水平的上升而下降,但这一结论与许多现实的保险行为不符。本文从损失和财富的关系角度出发对经典模型进行了扩展,讨论了在损失随财富变化时的保险需求变化,对保险需求的悖论进行了解释。论文还采用国内汽车险市场的微观数据对拓展模型进行了实证研究,结果显示车险投保人的个人财富与其所选择的保险金额、投保比率以及索赔金额之间存在着显著的正相关关系,检验表明模型的假设和结论具有很好的解释现实的能力。     

Robustness of Optimal Investment Decisions in Mixed Insurance/Investment Cyber Risk Management

An integrated risk management strategy, combining insurance and security investments, where the latter contribute to reduce the insurance premium, is investigated to assess whether it can lead to reduced overall security expenses. The optimal investment for this mixed strategy is derived under three insurance policies, covering, respectively, all the losses (total coverage), just those below the limit of maximum liability (partial coverage), and those above a threshold but below the maximum liability (partial coverage with deductibles). Under certain conditions (e.g., low potential loss, or either very low or very high vulnerability), the mixed strategy reverts however to insurance alone, because investments do not provide an additional benefit. When the mixed strategy is the best choice, the dominant component in the overall security expenses is the insurance premium in most cases. Optimal investment decisions require an accurate estimate of the vulnerability, whereas larger estimation errors may be tolerated for the investment-effectiveness coefficient.     

The Emergence of Flood Insurance in Canada: Navigating Institutional Uncertainty

Flood insurance has remained unavailable in Canada based on an assessment that it lacks economic viability. In response to Canada's costliest flood event to date in 2013, the Canadian insurance industry has started to develop a framework to expand existing property insurance to cover flood damage. Research on flood insurance has overlooked why and how insurance systems transition to expand insurance coverage without evidence of economic viability. This article will address this gap through a case study on the emergence of flood insurance in Canada, and the approach to its expansion. Between 2013 and 2016, insurance industry officials representing over 60% of premiums collected in Canada were interviewed. These interviews revealed that flood insurance is being expanded in response to institutional pressure, specifically external stakeholder expectations that the insurance industry will adopt a stronger role in managing flood risk through coverage of flood damage. Further evidence of this finding is explored by assessing the emergence of a unique flood insurance model that involves a risk‐adjusted and optional product along with an expansion of government policy supporting flood risk mitigation. This approach attempts to balance industry concerns about economic viability with institutional pressure to reduce flood risk through insurance. This analysis builds on existing research by providing the first scholarly analysis of flood insurance in Canada, important “empirical” teeth to existing conceptual analysis on the availability of flood insurance, and the influence of institutional factors on risk analysis within the insurance sector.     

An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay,NYC

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.     

Contract design and insurance fraud: an experimental investigation

This paper experimentally examines the impact of contract design on insurance fraud. We test how fraud behavior varies for insurance contracts with full coverage, a straight deductible or claim-dependent premiums (bonus-malus contracts), in a setup where rational and selfish individuals have an incentive to always claim the maximum possible indemnity. We find a substantial impact of contractual arrangements: Deductible contracts lead to a greater extent to claim build-up than full coverage contracts. In contrast, bonus-malus contracts that entail the same net gains from fraud as deductible contracts do not increase claim build-up. Thus, our results indicate that bonus-malus contracts may be superior to deductible contracts for behavioral reasons.