On tail parameter estimation in certain point process models

Let μ(ds, dx) denote Poisson random measure with intensity dsG(dx) on (0, ∞) × (0, ∞), for a measure G(dx) with tails varying regularly at ∞. We deal with estimation of index of regular variation α and weight parameter ξ if the point process is observed in certain windows K_n = [0, T_n] × [Y_n, ∞), where Y_n → ∞ as n → ∞. In particular, we look at asymptotic behaviour of the Hill estimator for α. In certain submodels, better estimators are available; they converge at higher speed and have a strong optimality property. This is deduced from the parametric case G(dx) = ξαx^−α−1 dx via a neighbourhood argument in terms of Hellinger distances.     

Nonparametric Bayes estimation of a distribution function with truncated data

A truncation bias affects the observation of a pair of variables (X,Y), so that data are available only if Y ⩽ X. In such a situation, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of the distribution function of Y may have unpleasant features (Woodroofe, Ann. Statist. 13 (1985) 163–177). As a possible alternative, a nonparametric Bayes estimator is obtained using a Dirichlet prior (Ferguson, Ann. Statist. 1 (1973) 209–230). Its frequentist asymptotic behavior is investigated and found to be the same as the asymptotic behavior of the NPMLE. The results are illustrated by an example, with astronomical data, where the NPMLE is clearly unacceptable.     

A stochastic Newton-Raphson method

A stochastic approximation procedure of the Robbins-Monro type is considered. The original idea behind the Newton-Raphson method is used as follows. Given n approximations X₁,…, X_n with observations Y₁,…, Y_n, a least squares line is fitted to the points (X_m, Y_m),…, (X_n, Y_n) where m<n may depend on n. The (n+1)st approximation is taken to be the intersection of the least squares line with y=0. A variation of the resulting process is studied. It is shown that this process yields a strongly consistent sequence of estimates which is asymptotically normal with minimal asymptotic variance.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for expectile functions

Expectile regression, as a general M smoother, is used to capture the tail behaviour of a distribution. Let (X ₁,Y ₁),…,(X _n ,Y _n ) be i.i.d. rvs. Denote by v(x) the unknown τ-expectile regression curve of Y conditional on X, and by v _n (x) its kernel smoothing estimator. In this paper, we prove the strong uniform consistency rate of v _n (x) under general conditions. Moreover, using strong approximations of the empirical process and extreme value theory, we consider the asymptotic maximal deviation sup_0≤x≤1|v _n (x)?v(x)|. According to the asymptotic theory, we construct simultaneous confidence bands around the estimated expectile function. Furthermore, we apply this confidence band to temperature analysis. Taking Berlin and Taipei as an example, we investigate the temperature risk drivers to these two cities.     

The simplicity of likelihood based inferences for P(X < Y) and for the ratio of means in the exponential model

The profile likelihood of the reliability parameter θ = P(X < Y) or of the ratio of means, when X and Y are independent exponential random variables, has a simple analytical expression and is a powerful tool for making inferences. Inferences about θ can be given in terms of likelihood-confidence intervals with a simple algebraic structure even for small and unequal samples. The case of right censored data can also be handled in a simple way. This is in marked contrast with the complicated expressions that depend on cumbersome numerical calculations of multidimensional integrals required to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals that have been traditionally presented in scientific literature.     

Super efficient frequency estimation

In this paper we propose a modified Newton-Raphson method to obtain super efficient estimators of the frequencies of a sinusoidal signal in presence of stationary noise. It is observed that if we start from an initial estimator with convergence rate O_p(n⁻¹) and use Newton-Raphson algorithm with proper step factor modification, then it produces super efficient frequency estimator in the sense that its asymptotic variance is lower than the asymptotic variance of the corresponding least squares estimator. The proposed frequency estimator is consistent and it has the same rate of convergence, namely O_p(n^−3/2), as the least squares estimator. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to observe the performance of the proposed estimator for different sample sizes and for different models. The results are quite satisfactory. One real data set has been analyzed for illustrative purpose.     

Asymptotic mean squared error of constrained James–Stein estimators

In this paper, we consider the asymptotic expansion of the MSE of constrained James–Stein estimators. We provide an estimator of the MSE which is asymptotically valid upto O(m⁻¹). A simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the performance of these estimators.     

Estimation and Inference for Linear Panel Data Models Under Misspecification When Both n and T are Large

This article considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, n, and the number of time periods, T, are large. We first clarify the probability limit of the FE estimator and argue that this probability limit can be regarded as a pseudo-true parameter. We then establish the asymptotic distributional properties of the FE estimator around the pseudo-true parameter when n and T jointly go to infinity. Notably, we show that the FE estimator suffers from the incidental parameters bias of which the top order is O(T^{? 1}), and even after the incidental parameters bias is completely removed, the rate of convergence of the FE estimator depends on the degree of model misspecification and is either (nT)^{? 1/2} or n^{? 1/2}. Second, we establish asymptotically valid inference on the (pseudo-true) parameter. Specifically, we derive the asymptotic properties of the clustered covariance matrix (CCM) estimator and the cross-section bootstrap, and show that they are robust to model misspecification. This establishes a rigorous theoretical ground for the use of the CCM estimator and the cross-section bootstrap when model misspecification and the incidental parameters bias (in the coefficient estimate) are present. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimators and inference methods, together with a simple application to the unemployment dynamics in the U.S.     

Generalized minimum distance estimators of a linear model with correlated errors

R^p of a linear regression model of the type Y = Xθ + ɛ, where X is the design matrix, Y the vector of the response variable and ɛ the random error vector that follows an AR(1) correlation structure. These estimators are asymptotically analyzed, by proving their strong consistency, asymptotic normality and asymptotic efficiency. In a simulation study, a better behaviour of the Mean Squared Error of the proposed estimator with respect to that of the generalized least squares estimators is observed. Received: November 16, 1998; revised version: May 10, 2000     

First‐order bias correction for fractionally integrated time series

Most of the long memory estimators for stationary fractionally integrated time series models are known to experience non‐negligible bias in small and finite samples. Simple moment estimators are also vulnerable to such bias, but can easily be corrected. In this article, the authors propose bias reduction methods for a lag‐one sample autocorrelation‐based moment estimator. In order to reduce the bias of the moment estimator, the authors explicitly obtain the exact bias of lag‐one sample autocorrelation up to the order n⁻¹. An example where the exact first‐order bias can be noticeably more accurate than its asymptotic counterpart, even for large samples, is presented. The authors show via a simulation study that the proposed methods are promising and effective in reducing the bias of the moment estimator with minimal variance inflation. The proposed methods are applied to the northern hemisphere data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 476–493; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Correlation estimation in Downton's bivariate exponential distribution using incomplete samples

Suppose (X, Y) has a Downton's bivariate exponential distribution with correlation ρ. For a random sample of size n from (X, Y), let X _r:n be the rth X-order statistic and Y _[r:n] be its concomitant. We investigate estimators of ρ when all the parameters are unknown and the available data is an incomplete bivariate sample made up of (i) all the Y-values and the ranks of associated X-values, i.e. (i, Y _[i:n]), 1≤i≤n, and (ii) a Type II right-censored bivariate sample consisting of (X _i:n , Y _[i:n]), 1≤i≤r<n. In both setups, we use simulation to examine the bias and mean square errors of several estimators of ρ and obtain their estimated relative efficiencies. The preferred estimator under (i) is a function of the sample correlation of (Y _i:n , Y _[i:n]) values, and under (ii), a method of moments estimator involving the regression function is preferred.     

Estimation of P{X < Y} for geometric—exponential model based on complete and censored samples

This article deals with the estimation of R = P{X < Y}, where X and Y are independent random variables from geometric and exponential distribution, respectively. For complete samples, the MLE of R, its asymptotic distribution, and confidence interval based on it are obtained. The procedure for deriving bootstrap-p confidence interval is presented. The UMVUE of R and UMVUE of its variance are derived. The Bayes estimator of R is investigated and its Lindley's approximation is obtained. A simulation study is performed in order to compare these estimators. Finally, all point estimators for right censored sample from the exponential distribution, are obtained.     

Nonlinear orthogonal series estimates for random design regression

Let (X,Y) be a pair of random variables with supp(X)⊆[0,1] and EY²<∞. Let m be the corresponding regression function. Estimation of m from i.i.d. data is considered. The L₂ error with integration with respect to the design measure μ (i.e., the distribution of X) is used as an error criterion.Estimates are constructed by estimating the coefficients of an orthonormal expansion of the regression function. This orthonormal expansion is done with respect to a family of piecewise polynomials, which are orthonormal in L₂(μ_n), where μ_n denotes the empirical design measure.It is shown that the estimates are weakly and strongly consistent for every distribution of (X,Y). Furthermore, the estimates behave nearly as well as an ideal (but not applicable) estimate constructed by fitting a piecewise polynomial to the data, where the partition of the piecewise polynomial is chosen optimally for the underlying distribution. This implies e.g., that the estimates achieve up to a logarithmic factor the rate n^−2p/(2p+1), if the underlying regression function is piecewise p-smooth, although their definition depends neither on the smoothness nor on the location of the discontinuities of the regression function.     

Inference of R=P[X<Y] for generalized logistic distribution

This paper deals with the estimation of R=P[X<Y] when X and Y come from two independent generalized logistic distributions with different parameters. The maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) and its asymptotic distribution are proposed. The asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval of R. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the MLE, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation and confidence interval of R are obtained. The MLE of R, asymptotic distribution of R in the general case, is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods. Analysis of a real data set has also been presented for illustrative purposes.     

Small samples confidencce intervals on common mean of two normal distributions variances

Let X₁,X₂,…,X_m be distributed normally with mean μ and variance σ² _X; Let Y₁,Y₂,…,Y_n be distributed normally with mean μ and variance σ² _Y; let X₁,X₂,…,X_m,Y₁,Y₂,…,Y_n be jointly independent. There have been several papers written concerning point estimation of μ for this problem, but very little is available in the literature concerning confidence intervals on the common mean μ. In this paper a method is proposed that results in a confidence interval with confidence coefficient essentially equal to a prescribed value 1 - α. The method is evaluated and compnred with other methods through the expected length of the confidence interval.     

Adaptive Warped Kernel Estimators

In this work, we develop a method of adaptive non‐parametric estimation, based on ‘warped’ kernels. The aim is to estimate a real‐valued function s from a sample of random couples (X,Y). We deal with transformed data (Φ(X),Y), with Φ a one‐to‐one function, to build a collection of kernel estimators. The data‐driven bandwidth selection is performed with a method inspired by Goldenshluger and Lepski (Ann. Statist., 39, 2011, 1608). The method permits to handle various problems such as additive and multiplicative regression, conditional density estimation, hazard rate estimation based on randomly right‐censored data, and cumulative distribution function estimation from current‐status data. The interest is threefold. First, the squared‐bias/variance trade‐off is automatically realized. Next, non‐asymptotic risk bounds are derived. Lastly, the estimator is easily computed, thanks to its simple expression: a short simulation study is presented.     

Inference of stress-strength for the Type-II generalized logistic distribution under progressively Type-II censored samples

This article studies the estimation of the reliability R = P[Y < X] when X and Y come from two independent generalized logistic distributions of Type-II with different parameters, based on progressively Type-II censored samples. When the common scale parameter is unknown, the maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic distribution are proposed. The asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval of R. Bayes estimator of R and the corresponding credible interval using the Gibbs sampling technique have been proposed too. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation, and confidence interval of R are extracted. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods. Analysis of a real dataset is given for illustrative purposes. Finally, methods are extended for proportional hazard rate models.     

Inference on P(Y < X) in Bivariate Rayleigh Distribution

This paper deals with the estimation of reliability R = P(Y < X) when X is a random strength of a component subjected to a random stress Y, and (X, Y) follows a bivariate Rayleigh distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator of R and its asymptotic distribution are obtained. An asymptotic confidence interval of R is constructed using the asymptotic distribution. Also, two confidence intervals are proposed based on Bootstrap method and a computational approach. Testing of the reliability based on asymptotic distribution of R is discussed. Simulation study to investigate performance of the confidence intervals and tests has been carried out. Also, a numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed approaches.     

Estimation of δ=P(X<Y) for Burr XII distribution based on the progressively first failure-censored samples

Let X and Y have two-parameter Burr XII distributions. The maximum-likelihood estimator of δ=P(X<Y) is studied under the progressively first failure-censored samples. Three confidence intervals of δ are constructed by using an asymptotic distribution of the maximum-likelihood estimator of δ and two bootstrapping procedures, respectively. Some computational results from intensive simulations are presented. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.     

Parameter Estimation for Bivariate Shock Models with Singular Distribution for Censored Data with Concomitant Order Statistics

When two‐component parallel systems are tested, the data consist of Type‐II censored data X_(i), i= 1, n, from one component, and their concomitants Y _[i] randomly censored at X_(r), the stopping time of the experiment. Marshall & Olkin's (1967) bivariate exponential distribution is used to illustrate statistical inference procedures developed for this data type. Although this data type is motivated practically, the likelihood is complicated, and maximum likelihood estimation is difficult, especially in the case where the parameter space is a non‐open set. An iterative algorithm is proposed for finding maximum likelihood estimates. This article derives several properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) including existence, uniqueness, strong consistency and asymptotic distribution. It also develops an alternative estimation method with closed‐form expressions based on marginal distributions, and derives its asymptotic properties. Compared with variances of the MLEs in the finite and large sample situations, the alternative estimator performs very well, especially when the correlation between X and Y is small.