The dangers of centralized economic planning

There is little evidence that there is much value in riveting attention on the question of strategic planning in an era of low growth or negative growth. Rather, there is value in discussing strategic planning in terms of the efficient realization of society's goals— whether expressed as economic goals or as non-economic aspirations. This article contains some observations on corporate strategic planning, provides perspective on the energy and materials scarcity question, and warns that detailed economic planning by government thwarts the optimal use of resources to improve living conditions for everyone. The author holds that renewed government reliance upon the workings of a competitive market economy is indispensable for achieving this goal.     

财政政策效应的空间差异性与地区经济增长

地区间经济差距的扩大化问题严重影响了区域经济的协调发展,乃至我国经济和社会的可持续发展。本文在回顾财政支出与经济增长效应文献的基础上,首先从理论上分析了财政政策效应的空间差异性。然后,根据我国经济发展的经验数据运用VAR模型分别考察了东、西部地区的政府公共资本支出与地区经济增长的长期均衡关系和动态响应关系,并对东、西部的财政政策效应进行了比较。结果表明,财政政策的经济增长效应在空间上存在明显差异,而且经济发展水平较低地区的增长效应大大好于经济发展水平较高的地区。本文的研究为我国制定区域经济协调发展的政策提供了一个思路,即在政府财力给定的情况下,旨在缩小地区经济差距的财政政策须适当向西部地区倾斜。     

人口老龄化、金融资产结构与宏观经济波动效应

本文构建了一个包含平均年龄异质性家庭和创新异质性企业的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析人口老龄化对宏观经济的冲击效应得出:随着中国人口老龄化程度的提高,家庭持有的流动性金融资产占金融总资产的比例上升、资本性金融资产所占比重逐渐下降,从而引起宏观金融结构的变动;中国人口老龄化引发的金融结构变动将导致劳动减少、消费减少、产出降低,甚至影响企业创新投资降低,进而导致高投资的经济增长模式发生变化。研究结论的政策含义在于:劳动增长依赖、投资增长依赖、技术模仿依赖都难以为继,经济高质量发展的动力应集中到创新方面,激励企业技术创新是市场机制改革的重要方向,引导市场资金对技术创新型企业的投资支持,同时应避免企业技术创新投资的剧烈上涨造成经济震荡。     

Electric-Utility Resource Planning and Decision-Making: The Importance of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a critical factor that pervades all aspects of electric-utility planning. Uncertainties about future load growth, about the continued performance of existing supply and demand resources, and about the costs, construction times, and operations of new resources greatly complicate utility resource acquisition. This paper discusses the factors that lead to uncertainty, reviews the methods that utilities use in planning and in acquiring resources, and suggests future research to help deal with these uncertainties. This review is based on assessments of the long-term resource plans prepared by 10 utilities and one Public Service Commission, telephone interviews with staff at these 11 organizations and with staff at three consulting firms, and reviews of many other related publications.     

现阶段我国政府债务“警戒线”的反思及债务风险的防范

通常人们依据债务规模的“警戒线”来衡量政府债务风险 ,认为我国政府债务风险已经较高。本文对此作了探讨并得出结论：前面的结论实际上很难成立 ,我国积极财政政策还有较大的空间。我国债务风险主要在于经济增长对债务资金可能形成的持久依赖。防范债务风险的根本措施是坚持深化改革、促进结构调整 ,主要依靠民间投资和消费拉动经济增长。国债资金应该用于支持体制改革和结构调整。随着积极财政政策在我国的运用 ,对我国政府债务风险的讨论也越来越多。一般对债务风险的判断都是基于国债负担率、赤字率、债务依存度、偿债率这样一些指标。…     

Human resource development in Pakistan: evolution,trends and challenges

Human resource development (HRD) is an ever-changing field. The concepts and the underlying principles of HRD may be similar throughout the globe, but its practice differs due to contextual factors such as culture, technology, resources and national policies. This article describes the development, current status and future trends of HRD in Pakistan. After analysing HRD in corporate, non-profit, education and community development settings, this article outlines the important role of HRD for the social and economic development of Pakistan.     

Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

能源补贴改革对资源效率和环境污染治理影响研究——基于动态CGE模型的分析

本文构建动态CGE模型,以化石和可再生能源补贴政策为对象,模拟不同类型能源补贴政策改革对经济发展、资源效率、碳排放及雾霾治理的差异性影响。研究表明：总体而言,能源补贴政策对宏观经济具有积极的促进作用,但在一定程度上会提高能源消费强度;不同类型的能源补贴政策方案影响的差异性较大,化石能源在促进经济增长的同时,对环境改善和碳排放目标实现产生不利影响,特别是煤炭补贴能有效降低能源使用成本,极大促进产业总产出和经济增长,但会不利于环境改善,对可再生能源补贴有利于能源利用效率提高和人均资源盈余改善,降低污染物和雾霾排放增速;因此,必须注重不同类型能源补贴政策协调性和差异性,短期内以化石能源补贴为主,长期而言,应逐步加大可再生能源补贴,更加有利于低碳转型和环境改善。     

市场化、经济结构变迁和政府经济结构政策转型--中国经验

改革开放以来,中国的经济保持高速持续的增长,但同时也带来了地区和产业发展的不平衡,这种不平衡反映到居民收入上,就造成收入分配的不平等,从而为今后的经济持续稳定增长埋下隐患。合理的经济结构调整政策应该力求弱化这种不平等局面,但这需要研究不平等的经济来源。本文通过构造表示中国市场化进程的市场化指数,利用协整模型对市场化指数、政府政策和产业发展、地区增长和收入水平数据进行协整分析,结果显示市场化进程本身带来了地区和产业的经济发展差距的扩大,进而造成收入分配不均,而政府过去的结构调整政策效果有限。因此,本文建议政府今后的经济结构调整政策应该从过去的增长为中心的结构政策转向以转移支付为中心的结构政策。     

具有网络外部性的双寡头市场的动态定价策略

本文通过将消费者对网络大小的预期引入消费者的效用函数,刻画了消费者预期如何影响市场潜量。然后,通过微分对策,分析了在垄断竞争的市场结构中的厂商如何在考虑到消费者对今后的预期时,如何动态的决定自己的价格和相应的策略。结果表明,随着消费者对网络增长预期的增大,将导致更大的网络规模和更低的初始价格。寡头的利润受消费者对其产量的预期的影响。     

代际公平与社会偏好视角下优势金属矿产定价权分析——基于古诺均衡模型的分析框架

我国优势金属矿产定价权的缺失对我国经济增长及经济安全产生了重要影响,这让很多学者构建相应的模型来解释定价权缺失。基于此背景,本文把代际公平均衡、社会偏好均衡与古诺模型相结合,解决代际价值补偿与策略性价值补偿计量的技术难题;并通过计量分析优势金属矿产市场的需求状况和开发税费科目,获得开发补偿的相关数据,展开理论模型结论的算例验证分析。理论模型与数值模拟结论表明,代际公平均衡与社会偏好均衡由于代际价值与策略性价值的产生,提升了我国金属矿产国际贸易市场势力,但社会偏好对市场势力影响路径并非一致,利他古诺均衡、互动公平古诺均衡变动具有一致的结果,非公平厌恶的古诺均衡具有损失厌恶特征,即在考虑非公平厌恶的古诺竞争时,古诺纳什均衡随非公平厌恶的同情和嫉妒偏好单调变换。这些结论与构建的理论模型实现了可持续发展理念与价值评价思维的有效结合,拓展了矿产资源定价权缺失的理论分析框架,为相关商品贸易的定价权解释提供了新的思路。     

WORKERS,WARRIORS, AND CRIMINALS: SOCIAL CONFLICT IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM

We incorporate appropriation activities (social conflict) into canonical models of trade and study how economic shocks and policies affect the intensity of conflict. We show that not all shocks that could make society richer reduce conflict: positive shocks to labor‐intensive industries diminish conflict, while positive shocks to capital‐intensive industries increase it. The key requirement is that conflict activities be more labor intensive than the economy as this determines how shocks affect the returns and costs of conflict. Our theory is consistent with several observed patterns of conflict and implies that empirical work should take into account the relative factor intensities of the productive and conflict sectors in each country. Incorporating appropriation into a canonic general equilibrium model affects what policies may be deemed desirable: in order to reduce conflict and generate Pareto‐improvements policy must be distortionary, while reforms that appear efficiency‐enhancing under the unrealistic assumption of perfect property rights may backfire. This offers one explanation for why reforms based on traditional models without appropriation may be delayed and become unpopular when implemented, and why societies may sympathize with seemingly inefficient redistribution.     

Technology, progress and economic growth

Robert Ayres asks a number of questions relating to technology, progress and economic growth. How far is human welfare attributable to science and technological progress rather than to economic growth, or vice versa? Can technological progress negatively impact on economic growth and employment? What kind of technology is needed for a truly sustainable future?The answers are critically important for producers, managers and governments. Increasing welfare is due primarily to science and technology, and only secondarily to economic growth. Scientific and technological progress generated economic growth, not vice versa. In its present form, economic growth can hinder technological progress (through increasing returns to scale reducing the rate of innovation). But current technological progress can negatively impact economic growth, and especially in the field of information technology. The falling price of manufacturing goods will lower the economic growth rate.Sustainability is the number one question. We are experiencing decreasing resource quality, increasing demand, and environmental constraints. The industrial world must cut material consumption, change its structure of demand, and sharply increase its productivity of materials and energy.The author advocates a completely new economic strategy - ‘radical dematerialism’, in which there is a massive reverse substitution of human labor for fossil energy and physical substances extracted from the environment. The sustainability of economies of the future will be based almost entirely on services - leasing will become the norm for products - and firms must learn to sell services, not products.     

Managing “forced” technology transfer in emerging markets: The case of China

This paper explores how foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) manage risks associated with “forced” technology transfer (“FTT”) policies in emerging markets. Although MNCs are increasingly exposed to appropriability risks from these policies, how they respond is relatively understudied in international business (IB) research. We explore this topic based upon a survey and interviews with Western MNCs doing business in China, as well as a discussion about the recent US-China trade war. We find that, as traditional IB theory would predict, internally-oriented strategies (e.g., internalization, maintenance of informal intellectual property (IP), and control of technological centrality and sophistication) are often used to respond to FTT policies; however, the risks from such policies can sometimes be more efficiently managed by externally-oriented strategies (e.g., non-market activities and reliance on formal IP). We discuss how the co-evolution of MNCs' risk management strategies alongside changing value chains, IP institutions, and conditions determining the leverage of FTT policies appear to contribute to this phenomenon. We argue that IB research should more prominently recognize the role of externally-oriented strategies, not only internally-oriented ones, in managing the complex IP-related institutional challenges present in emerging markets today.     

中国式财政分权与地方经济增长目标管理——来自省、市政府工作报告的经验证据

本文将实际经济增长分解为政府直接调控的"经济增长目标"和主要受市场因素影响但同时也受到政府间接干预的"计划外增长"两项,通过多层级政府框架的一般均衡模型模拟分析发现,财政分权在实际经济增长、经济增长目标和计划外增长方面的效应并不同步,而且还呈现地区差异性。在此基础上,系统搜集中国省、市两级政府2000~2016年政府工作报告里的GDP计划增长目标并进行系统GMM估计。实证结果表明:整体而言,财政分权对省、市实际经济增长的影响皆显著为正,但对其两个分解指标存在非对称性影响:从全国范围来看,财政分权对实际经济增长的正向影响主要体现为对经济增长目标的拉动作用,而对计划外增长影响较弱且不甚显著;分地区回归发现,东部地区财政分权对实际经济增长的正向影响更多地体现为对计划外经济增长的驱动,而西部地区则主要是通过影响由政府直接调控的经济增长目标来实现的。机制分析显示,财政分权通过不同程度地推动基建投资、房地产投资以及工业化进程,促进了经济增长目标的实现,进而推动实际经济增长。     

从长期发展战略看中国经济增长

改革开放以来,中国以9.36％的年平均增长率保持了25年的长期高速经济增长。在这一基础上,2002年,中国又提出了在20年里使GDP再翻两番的新的长期经济增长目标。本文从中国经济与东亚经济比较、居民可支配收入、中国未来经济增长对中国国际经济地位的影响等方面,对中国长期经济增长的可能、趋势、增长速度及可能遇到的问题进行了分析研究。     

经济增长和环境质量相容性政策条件——环境技术进步方向视角下的政策偏向效应检验

现有文献关注政策规制的经济与环境绩效,却并未重视不同类型政策的技术偏向,以及技术偏态情境中经济增长和环境质量相容发展的政策条件。本文扩展Acemoglu等(2012)的环境技术进步方向模型,数理演绎不同性质政策的技术偏向,以及技术进步方向转变时经济增长和环境质量的动态演化过程,再结合我国经济数据进行政策效果评价。研究结果发现:(1)环境技术进步方向是技术研发效率和环境政策累积作用的结果,环境政策会通过影响不同类型技术创新激励的方式,改变环境技术进步方向。(2)异质性政策转变技术进步方向,影响经济增长和环境质量,其作用存在不同的着力点和偏向性。其中,研发补贴政策的清洁技术偏向和产出激励效果明显,而规制类政策的环境质量效应优于研发补贴,但其对经济增长的作用表现出非线性U型特征。(3)单一政策干预往往难以破除经济增长和环境质量的两难困境,而政策组合的效果明显优于单一政策,特别是在碳排放权交易试点地区实施研发补贴政策,以及在碳排放权交易试点地区同时实行环境税与研发补贴,效果明显优于实施单一政策。但最优的政策组合并非固定不变,而往往处于动态变化过程中。     

有效税率、投资与经济增长:来自中国数据的经验实证

本文测算了我国劳动、资本和消费的有效税率,以反映这三种要素的真实负担情况,然后,利用结构VAR模型分别研究三种税率的结构性冲击对投资和经济增长的动态影响。结果表明:消费支出有效税率的正冲击对投资率和经济增长率的影响程度最大,短期内有利于投资率的增加,长期来看有利于经济增长;劳动收入有效税率的正冲击对投资率和经济增长率的影响,短期效应为正,长期效应为负;对资本收入征税,短期内不利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期来看具有一定的正效应,但是影响程度相对较小。因此,我国税收政策调整的中长期目标应尽量选择以消费支出为税基,以促进经济的长期快速增长。     

Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Deep uncertainty in future climatic and economic conditions complicates developing infrastructure designed to last several generations, such as water reservoirs. In response, analysts have developed multiple robust decision frameworks to help identify investments and policies that can withstand a wide range of future states. Although these frameworks are adept at supporting decisions where uncertainty cannot be represented probabilistically, analysts necessarily choose probabilistic bounds and distributions for uncertain variables to support exploratory modeling. The implications of these assumptions on the analytical outcomes of robust decision frameworks are rarely evaluated, and little guidance exists in terms of how to select uncertain variable distributions. Here, we evaluate the impact of these choices by following the robust decision-making procedure, using four different assumptions about the probabilistic distribution of exogenous uncertainties in future climatic and economic states. We take a water reservoir system in Ethiopia as our case study, and sample climatic parameters from uniform, normal, extended uniform, and extended normal distributions; we similarly sample two economic parameters. We compute regret and satisficing robustness decision criteria for two performance measures, agricultural water demand coverage and net present value, and perform scenario discovery on the most robust reservoir alternative. We find lower robustness scores resulting from extended parameter distributions and demonstrate that parameter distributions can impact vulnerabilities identified through scenario discovery. Our results suggest that exploratory modeling within robust decision frameworks should sample from extended, uniform parameters distributions.     

Price,Rebate, and Returns Supply Contracts for Coordinating Supply Chains with Price‐Dependent Demands

Channel rebates and returns policies are common mechanisms for manufacturers to entice retailers to increase their order quantities and sales ultimately. However, when the underlying demand depends on the retail price, it has been known that channel coordination cannot be achieved if only one of these mechanisms is deployed. In this article, we show that a policy that combines the use of wholesale price, channel rebate, and returns can coordinate a channel with both additive and multiplicative price‐dependent demands. In addition to determining the sufficient conditions for the contract parameters associated with the equilibrium policy, we show that multiple equilibrium policies for channel coordination exist. We further explore how the equilibrium policy can be adjusted to achieve Pareto improvement. Other issues such as the maximum amount of expected profit that the manufacturer can share under the coordinated channel, the structural properties of the contracts under both the additive and multiplicative price‐dependent demand functions are also discussed.