Using input—output models for planning in groups with considerable inter-company trading

In any group where a lot of inter-company trading takes place and where the member companies are allowed a degree of autonomy, conflicts of interest will arise. Actions taken by individual companies in their own best interest will, on occasion, be detrimental to the group as a whole. Furthermore, the accounts relating to a particular company will tell head office management very little about the through-group profitability of the products concerned. Nor will the usual accounts and statistics throw much light on the extent to which individual companies or processes depend on the group's main end markets, since in many cases these companies will be largely or partly concerned with supplying other members of the organization.It follows that in such groups an information system is needed which will not reflect the organizational structure of the enterprise—as do individual company accounts—but which will provide top management with an overall group view. It should also make a contribution, both towards resolving any conflicts of interest which might occur, and to improving the overall return on group assets employed.This article examines the role of the micro input–output model in this situation with particular reference to its application in areas where conflicts of interest between the group and its member companies are likely to arise.     

银行投资组合多元化与系统性风险的关系研究

在现代金融系统中,人们逐渐开始关注整个银行业的系统性风险而不仅仅是个体风险,而传统经济学中个体银行投资组合多元化理论对于系统性风险来说并不一定是有效的,因此对于银行投资组合多元化与系统性风险之间的关系仍需要深入研究。本文基于简化的金融市场,通过资产负债表刻画银行和资产之间的联系,构建了描述银行破产边界的数学模型,并以此为基础分别研究了银行个体风险、系统性风险、考虑拆借关系的系统性风险以及同时考虑减价出售和拆借关系的系统性风险之间的区别与联系,进而分析了银行投资组合多元化对不同风险的影响。最后,参考实际金融市场中的参数取值,对本文构建的模型进行了数值实验,研究结果表明：多元化会使银行的投资组合变得相似从而更容易引发系统性风险,资产减价出售和银行间拆借关系的存在同样会增加银行系统性风险,因而通过减少投资组合多元化和控制银行拆借比例等措施可以在一定程度上降低系统性风险的发生,这对于系统性风险的监管具有较高的参考价值。     

Managing Internal R&D Networks in Global Firms: What Sort of Knowledge is Involved?

How should a global firm manage its network of R&D centres in an effective manner? Some have developed an Integrated Network model in which the R&D centres around the world are tightly integrated into a coherent whole. Others have adopted a Loosely-Coupled Network model in which individual “centres of excellence” are given considerable autonomy. In this paper we argue that the way individual R&D units are structured, and the way the entire network is managed, should be based not on administrative heritage, environmental turbulence or management style, but on the basis of the underlying characteristics of the firm’s knowledge assets. In particular we focus on the observability and mobility of the firm’s knowledge assets, the impact these factors have on the way individual R&D centres are structured, and how they relate to one another in the international network. The argument is supported using examples and data from Swedish firms including ABB, Alfa Laval and Ericsson.     

信贷资产证券化、异质性投资者和金融风险

在Gennaioli等人^[1]建立的标准模型基础上,引入投资者异质性时间偏好和由投资者过度自信引起的异质性信念,探讨投资者非理性对金融风险的影响。研究发现,与Gennaioli等人^[1]的结论不一样,银行金融中介并不会利用投资者非理性发行更多的表面无风险实际有风险的债券,因此,非理性投资者参与资产证券化产品的交易并不会增加金融市场的风险。这一结论为信贷资产证券化产品在交易所发行交易,允许中小投资者参与其中提供了理论依据。     

人口老龄化、金融资产结构与宏观经济波动效应

本文构建了一个包含平均年龄异质性家庭和创新异质性企业的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析人口老龄化对宏观经济的冲击效应得出:随着中国人口老龄化程度的提高,家庭持有的流动性金融资产占金融总资产的比例上升、资本性金融资产所占比重逐渐下降,从而引起宏观金融结构的变动;中国人口老龄化引发的金融结构变动将导致劳动减少、消费减少、产出降低,甚至影响企业创新投资降低,进而导致高投资的经济增长模式发生变化。研究结论的政策含义在于:劳动增长依赖、投资增长依赖、技术模仿依赖都难以为继,经济高质量发展的动力应集中到创新方面,激励企业技术创新是市场机制改革的重要方向,引导市场资金对技术创新型企业的投资支持,同时应避免企业技术创新投资的剧烈上涨造成经济震荡。     

The Lucas Orchard

This paper investigates the behavior of asset prices in an endowment economy in which a representative agent with power utility consumes the dividends of multiple assets. The assets are Lucas trees; a collection of Lucas trees is a Lucas orchard. The model generates return correlations that vary endogenously, spiking at times of disaster. Since disasters spread across assets, the model generates large risk premia even for assets with stable cashflows. Very small assets may comove endogenously and hence earn positive risk premia even if their cashflows are independent of the rest of the economy. I provide conditions under which the variation in a small asset's price‐dividend ratio can be attributed almost entirely to variation in its risk premium.     

A CHANCE-CONSTRAINED GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR BANK LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT

The bank liquidity-management model presented herein is formulated as a chance-constrained goal programming model thus allowing uncertainty to be incorporated into a lexicographic solution of the problem. This model plans both for the reserve-short and reserve-excess bank, describing appropriate investment or disinvestment action during the computation period. The testing of the model was performed on two banks, one a small rural bank with assets of about $25 million, and the other a large metropolitan bank with assets well in excess of $1 billion, with the actual bank results and the prescribed strategy of the model being compared over a one-year period. Additionally, sensitivity analysis was performed on the model, providing valuable information concerning the risk-return relationships associated with each management goal. It is hoped that this model will provide bankers with both an effective diagnostic and operational tool in the development of liquidity-management planning decisions.     

资产负债管理多阶段模型及应用

本文根据我国实际情况,考虑未来各种经济因素的不确定性,建立了资产负债管理问题多阶段随机优化模型.对基金公司的多阶段资产配置问题、个人财务计划问题、银行资产负债管理问题以及养老金问题进行研究,针对每一个具体问题对目标函数和约束条件进行了调整和改进.对未来不确定的经济因素采用向量自回归方法进行预测,得到了最优资产配置,使得与负债选择和投资者财富相联系的资产投资决策通过多期随机规划达到最优.     

基于流动性风险的多因素定价模型及其实证研究

本文通过构造基于流动性风险的多因素定价模型,研究了流动性风险对证券均衡价格的影响.研究表明,在假定流动性是证券收益补偿变量的前提下,证券的期望收益除了与证券的协方差风险有关外,还与证券的流动性风险和市场证券组合的流动性风险有关;流动性对期望收益具有一定的预测性,由于证券流动性是持续性的,当前流动性较差的证券在未来的流动性也较差,因而其未来的流动性风险补偿应该较高,即预期收益较高.     

A modified internal rate of return model for capital rationing in project selection

The ability of a company to finance viable projects depends on the availability of funds, and this too is a function of time, interest rate and risk factors among others. Factors such as these would lead to limited fund availability, which would necessitate capital rationing. Linear/integer programming and profitability index are often used to tackle this problem for optimal solution. A third approach utilizing a modified internal rate of return (IRR) is proposed. To overcome the difficulty usually encountered in calculating IRR, a small program coded in BASIC is presented. Even though discounting the cash outflows beyond the initial year should have been ideal in the linear programming formulation, this paper casts doubts as to the validity of the solution derived from it, as different discount rates seem to produce very conflicting results from the same set of investment options. This is also applicable to profitability index. While efforts are being made to correct these lapses, the modified IRR model has been found useful in arriving at an optimum solution both for the single-period as well as for the multi-stage situation.     

信贷资产证券化模式选择与产品设计

信贷资产证券化具有盘活非流动资产、分散本性风险等优势,是公司从资本市场获得低成本融资的主要工具之一。本文假设资产池由多个相关、且均服从算术布朗运动的资产现金流组成,运用公司证券定价理论,得到了基于资产池总现金流的证券化产品价值的解析解。以商业银行为例,研究了资产证券化的动机和最佳发行方式。数值分析表明：资产证券化不仅可以盘活资本,而且可以提高资产的价值;资产池的总价值与进入资产池的各个部分现金流之间的相关系数存在单调递减的关系。最后,针对我国商业银行的资产证券化模式提出了建议。     

公司价值、资产收购与控制权转移方式

控制权转移是一个历史性的问题,控制权转移方式则是控制权转移问题的核心内容之一。本文在考虑控制权转移之后的资产收购行为的基础上,立足中国独特的制度背景,对中国特有的上市公司控制权转移方式进行研究。研究结论表明,相对来说,无偿转让公司的现有价值比较高,并且公司未来发展较为乐观;而有偿转让的大多是现有价值低并且目前看来发展前途较为悲观的公司;有偿转让公司在控制权转移之后更可能发生收购资产的行为;从总体上看,收购资产所产生的收益能够显著地提高公司价值,并且有偿转让公司所收购资产对价值的贡献较无偿转让公司要高。以上结论表明,价值高的公司一般不会采用有偿方式进行转让,而新股东之所以愿意有偿购入价值低的公司,后续收购资产而使公司价值显著提高则是其重要原因之一。     

基于行业组合的贷款总体风险优化决策模型

应用资本资产定价模型中的单因子模型表达贷款收益和风险函数,以不同行业贷款组合后的总体风险最小化为目标,运用非线性规划方法建立了基于组合贷款总体风险优化的行业贷款分配模型。通过负相关行业的风险对冲,避免了选择单个或少数行业进行贷款所导致的、当该行业不景气时的系统性风险对贷款质量的影响,降低了贷款组合的系统性风险。从组合贷款总风险中分离出系统风险和非系统风险,并通过实例验证行业组合可以降低系统性风险,显示通过行业组合可以部分地抵消由于行业自身所产生的系统性风险。     

中国国资改革：困惑、误区与创新模式

2020年是实现国企与国资改革"三年行动方案"的开局之年,关键是要解决当前国资改革中的困惑,走出误区并探索创新模式。传统中国国有资产管理主要是为了解决国有资产保值、增值的微观问题。进入中国特色社会主义新时代,国资改革应从中国道路、中国模式的角度,全面、系统地进行管理方案设计,这既是构建竞争中性营商环境的客观需要,也是"三年行动方案"目标指引下国资改革引向深入的必然选择。总结国资改革30年来的困惑和误区,中国国资改革关键在于把宏观运行机制和微观运行载体实现创新性结合,构建三层次国资管理体系,让国资委作为营利性国资的统一监管者,让国有资本投资运营公司作为企业的直接出资人,将国家战略运用于国有企业中,实现做强、做优、做大国有资本的重大变革。     

Concepts,Theory, and Techniques INFLATION,MAINTENANCE OF CAPITAL,AND THE IRR MODEL OF CAPITAL BUDGETING*

Businesses operating under inflationary conditions need capital-budgeting models that help them judge the adequacy of returns on their investments and also allow them to keep capital intact by considering the erosive effects of inflation. The model proposed in this paper computes a modified internal rate of return (IRR); if cash inflows from a project are divided between earnings and recovery of capital, total recovery equals that amount which the capital-budgeting concept adopted by the business specifies (such as the original investment in constant dollars or its replacement cost). Under this model, a project should be accepted only if this computed rate equals or exceeds a hurdle rate that consists of the inflation-free rate of return plus the effect of inflation on such a return. Other modifications to the IRR model suggested in the literature do not completely satisfy the objective of capital budgeting under inflationary conditions.     

结构突变下的高维汇率资产时变投资组合预测研究

金融市场存在结构突变现象是发生金融风险传染的关键所在,而风险传染又是投资组合研究中亟需解决的难点。本文以9种国际主要货币对美元汇率为研究对象,先构建隐马尔科夫模型来对汇率资产进行结构突变预测,并基于结构突变刻画的结果,构建动态R-Vine Copula模型来预测汇率资产的风险传染关系;最后,基于结构突变与风险传染的研究结果,筛选出适合的组合汇率资产,构建时变投资组合预测模型。实证结果表明：HMM模型能够有效地刻画出汇率资产中的结构突变;动态R-Vine Copula模型能够更加有效地刻画出汇率资产间的风险传染关系;基于结构突变与风险传染关系下的动态投资组合预测模型,具有降低投资组合风险与提升投资组合预测收益的优越性,能够为金融风险管理和投资组合研究提供模型参考。     

基于银行-资产双边网络模型的系统性风险及投资策略研究

受近几年的国际金融危机及金融全球化的影响,对金融系统的系统性风险的研究已成为国内外学者的关注热点。考虑到当前基于"银行-资产-银行"间接传播渠道的相关研究相对匮乏,本文基于银行-资产双边网络模型来分析银行系统性风险。首先,使用中国47家上市银行2018年的资产负债表数据构建了中国银行系统的双边网络模型,研究分析各类资产遭受冲击时外部冲击、降价出售效应及银行所持有的各类资产占银行总资产的比例对银行系统性风险的影响。然后,引入系统性冲击方式,通过设置具有不同属性的两大类资产并生成四种冲击事件来构建银行的投资策略模型,从资产视角探讨银行最优的投资策略。研究发现,外部冲击与降价出售效应这两个产生系统性风险的影响因素在一定区间值时会产生叠加效应,使银行系统性风险急剧增加;五种资产类中,贷款类资产对外部冲击最敏感;分析发现在各类资产冲击下都未倒闭的所有银行的资产组合具有一定的相似性;进一步研究发现银行系统中存在着最优的资产组合,使得银行在稳定的同时能获取最大收益,并且资产负债比越大的银行其风险承受能力越强,从而可以选择更激进的投资策略来追求高收益。     

基于随机久期缺口控制的全资产负债优化模型

资产负债管理是银行等金融机构在负债结构和总量一定的前提下,通过对资产进行优化配置,达到资产流动性、盈利性和安全性“三性”之间的平衡。本文基于CIR动态利率期限结构求解随机久期,对包括增量和存量在内的全部资产负债组合的久期缺口进行预留和约束,构建资产负债优化模型控制利率风险。本文的创新与特色有三:一是以控制CIR利率期限结构的随机久期缺口为约束条件建立非线性规划模型、对资产配置进行利率风险免疫,反映了利率随时间的动态变化,突破了Macaulay久期、FW久期等现有研究的利率随时间的变化是固定不变或平行移动的限定条件,使资产配置的利率风险免疫更加符合现实情况。二是建立了包括增量资产负债与存量资产负债的全资产负债优化配置模型,改变了现有资产负债模型大多只考虑增量资产负债、而忽略存量资产负债的弊端。三是以市场利率朝着最不利方向变动时、预留缺口损失后的资本充足率仍满足监管要求为约束条件,保证了在利率不利变动情况下损失仍在可控范围内,在利率有利变动时银行净值增加。     

时变损失厌恶下基于动态CVaR的ETF基金最优资产配置策略研究

首先对静态线性损失厌恶下的最优资产配置策略模型及其性质进行了分析,构建了基于TGARCH-EVT-POT-GPD的动态市场风险测度方法,提出了时变损失厌恶条件下基于动态条件风险约束的ETF基金最优资产配置策略模型,并基于遗传算法进行了求解。实证研究发现：当参考收益率及CVaR置信水平固定时,随着损失厌恶系数的增大,投资者采用大幅调整资产权重的方式来获得盈利的行为将逐渐减少;当参考收益率及损失厌恶系数固定且CVaR置信水平变化条件下,置信水平越高,损失厌恶投资者更偏好风险较低的资产,其对于投资风险的估计将更加敏感,投资策略更为保守;损失厌恶系数较高置信水平固定时,随着参考收益率的增加,单项资产的CVaR逐渐减小;在置信水平较高时,随着损失厌恶系数的增加,即使参考收益率增加,但投资组合的超额损失平均水平降低。     

投资方案内部收益率的分析

本文严格地证明了投资方案的内部收益率(IRR)与借款利率的关系,全部资金与自有资金的内部收益率的关系,以及不同的借款偿还方式对自有奖金内部收益率的影响。