集群演化网络模型与仿真研究

从网络视角研究集群的演化,应用一个小世界演化模型与选择价值函数演化模型相结合的双重网络演化模型,研究集群网络的演化特征和集群网络的演化过程.此模型可反映集群网络从形成期到成熟期的演化进程,应用该模型对集群网络形成期和成熟期的网络密集性、连通性和中心性进行了仿真试验,并对集群网络的形成机制给出了解释和分析.研究表明,小世界网络模型模拟的集群网络具有集群形成期网络整体密集性和连通性剧烈变化的特征,而个体选择价值函数模型可以解释集群网络的成长期、成熟期的密集性和连通性趋于稳定的特征,将2种演化规则相结合,则可以反映集群网络从形成期到成熟期的各生命周期特征.最后,由小世界和价值函数演化机理出发,给出集群网络演化进程中生命周期各阶段的内因解释和政策启示.     

FDI影响技术创新中间传导环节的实证分析——基于苏州地区1995-2008年的数据

本文首先利用动态外溢模型测算了外商直接投资的技术外溢效应,然后从理论上分析了产业集群内部外商直接投资影响技术创新能力的机制,提出了溢出效应、吸收效应和产业集群效应这三个中间传导环节,并对该机制进行实证分析。实证结果表明,作为第一环节的溢出效应,没有对技术创新能力起到显著的影响,而吸收效应和产业集群效应对技术创新能力的影响总体上却是显著的。这说明苏州地区技术创新能力没有随着外资的进入而提高的真正原因在于技术溢出环节。最后本文从负的溢出效应、溢出效应被抑制、溢出效应需求的非迫切性和技术溢出的机会稀缺性这四个方面解释了技术溢出环节的问题,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

供应链管理对于大型复杂产品制造业集群演进的影响机理研究

产业集群演进是指在一定驱动力下产业集群从某个具有阶段特征的整体结构与态势向另一个具有阶段特征的结构与态势转变发展的过程。在这个过程中供应链管理可以促进资源的有效整合和利用,优化产业结构,促进产业升级。在前人关于大型复杂产品和供应链管理相关研究基础上,以组织要素、产品复杂性要素、产业关联度要素为影响变量,构建了供应链管理对大型复杂产品制造业集群演进的影响机理模型,通过实证分析,得出SCM对于大型复杂产品制造业集群演进的影响机理是一个全方位的作用模式,这为大型复杂产品制造业集群中供应链管理提供了借鉴。     

中国产业结构优化升级的测度和比较分析

产业结构优化升级包括结构高度化和合理化两方面.准确测度高度化水平和合理化程度能为产业结构优化升级过程中的一系列制度变革和政策调整提供依据.从分析产业结构优化升级(高度化和合理化)的机制及其与经济增长(非均衡增长和均衡增长)的关系入手.定义理想情况下产业结构优化升级的最优路径.在此基础上,建立一套基于静态投入产出模型的产业结构优化升级测度方法,并利用1997年、2002年和2005年全国投入产出表提供的数据具体测度这一时期中国产业结构的高度化水平和合理化程度,对产业结构优化升级的趋势进行分析.结果表明,这一时期中国产业结构的整体高度化水平和合理化程度出现先提高后降低的趋势,各产业的实际情况与理想情况仍然存在不同程度的偏差.     

产业动态理论研究新进展

论文在产业动态理论的两大研究框架产业动态的动力源和产业演化动态内对产业动态理论的最新研究成果进行梳理,并着重对创新和产业动态的数量研究、产业动态的马尔可夫完美模型及产业生命周期和产业演化模型等几个前沿领域所取得的最新进展与所面临的主要挑战进行总结和评述。     

Identity and Identification in Industrial Districts

The aim of this article is to extend theconcept of identity and identification to thestudy of industrial districts. The theoreticalmodel presented explains how identity andidentification occur within localizedproduction networks and examines how theprocess of identification affects theindustrial districts' performance andcompetitiveness. The study adopts a multi-disciplinary approachwhich integrates the traditional frameworkrooted in the fields of regional studies,governance structures, and management theorywith some theoretical contributions developedin the field of social psychology.The concept of district identity is proposed asthe missing link between the traditionalmacro-perspective based on shared culture,history, and values and a micro-foundedapproach to the study of industrial districts.It is stated that, through the process ofidentification, district identity explains atthe actor level the adoption of distinctivebehaviors, such as commitment, trust, andcooperation, which represent the ultimatesource of competitive advantage of thedistrict model.     

我国工业增加值季节波动非线性研究——基于SEATV-STAR模型

多数宏观经济变量时间序列有季节波动,如果季节波动是非线性的,采用经季节调整过的数据或传统季节模型等线性处理季节波动的方法可能就不再适用。本文基于季节时变平滑转换自回归(SEATV-STAR)模型,运用"特殊到一般"的非线性检验策略对我国工业增加值季度增长率季节波动进行研究。结果表明:(1)工业增加值的季节波动兼有结构时变和非线性改变,工业增加值的周期波动是线性的。(2)技术进步、体制变迁等因素使得工业增加值季节波动发生连续的结构时变,它们是季节波动变化的主要影响因素。(3)工业增加值周期波动对其季节波动有非对称影响;在工业增加值的波峰阶段,其季节波幅会减小,且1、2季度工业增长率有明显提高。     

Geographic location or experience: Using PRISM to understand how people seek flood risk information

Flooding is increasing worldwide, and with climate change, people need help understanding these changing conditions and that their flood risk may also change. This study extends the planned risk information seeking model (PRISM) into the flood risk domain and examines the antecedents that explain flood risk information seeking behavior. Using a survey reflective of the population in the state of Texas (N = 1079), this study includes an operationalization of risk perception specific to the complexity of floods and explores two key moderators in the PRISM model. Findings suggest that using PRISM to elaborate flood risk information seeking behaviors explains 48% of the variance in information seeking intent and 37% of the variance in affective risk perception. Using multigroup modeling, the findings also reveal that simply living in an area at high risk for floods does not significantly impact any relationships in the model. However, having experience with flooding increases the strength of risk perception paths—in particular, perceived probability of flood risk—and better explains flood risk information seeking. Suggestions for how to use communication to influence risk perceptions and information seeking, as well as future directions for research, are also discussed.     

基于股权结构的财务危机预警模型构建

本文试图将公司股权结构变量引入到财务危机预警的研究中,首先运用Logistic回归分析对引入模型的变量进行了筛选,然后将筛选得到的变量进行主成分分析得到五个综合的变量,最后通过对五个综合的变量进行Fisher判别分析建立了一个上市公司的财务危机预警模型。本文选取的样本全部为上市工业企业,以期建立一个行业预警模型提高预警能力。结果表明,模型的预测能力较强。     

基于相互影响的复杂可信软件产品需求变化传播研究

需求变化传播分析是实施复杂可信软件产品演化的关键。从可信需求和功能需求之间存在相互影响的视角,本文基于需求关系模型建立、需求依赖设计结构矩阵构造、需求变化传播影响度量与需求变化传播影响分析四个层面,提出了一个基于流程的四阶段需求变化传播分析框架模型;给出了功能需求影响关系矩阵、可信需求影响关系矩阵和需求变化传递矩阵的定义,并凭借矩阵运算描述和分析了需求变化传播的具体实现。最后以航空发动机嵌入式监控软件为例说明了模型和方法的应用。     

Cross-cultural industrial relations: An empirical examination

This paper is born out of research conducted in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and India between 1987 and 1990. It is an attempt to empirically test and extend the scope of a model formulated in England in 1977. The original model postulated that managerial behavior towards industrial relations issues, on an organizational or micro level, could be predicted if the managerial style could be properly predicated within the matrix of the model. The present study uses the model to see if similar prediction (or in any case, generalization) can be made on a macro level. The findings reveal that a certain degree of generalization can be empirically sustained in so far as the style of managers in the three countries is concerned. To that extent the paper is a contribution to the corpus of thought on the subject of managerial beliefs and provides valuable insight for the student of human resources management especially in the area of industrial relations and corporate policy.     

生产链位置是否影响创新模式选择——基于微观角度的理论与实证

企业创新模式选择不仅与自身因素相关,还与生产分工流程相关;本文首次从理论与实证验证了企业的生产链位置对于创新模式选择具有显著影响。首先,基于产品分工构建了一个理论框架,诠释了企业生产链位置对于创新模式的影响:位于生产链上游的企业的产品可塑性强,适用范围更广,激进式创新引入的新产品替代旧产品的可能性较小,它们面临更小的"利润侵蚀效应";生产链上游企业中间品种类相对较少,激进式创新带来的高不确定性产生的协调成本较低,它们的"协调成本效应"也相对较小,因此位于生产链上游的企业采取激进式创新具有比较优势,反之位于生产链下游的企业偏向于渐进式创新。在实证上,本文首次通过插值法估算出1998~2011年中国投入产出系数,进而量化企业生产链位置指标,然后基于企业和专利数据库,根据理论的推论,对生产链分工位置影响企业创新模式选择的效果,以及如何影响创新行为进行了全面细致的验证,证实了两个效应是生产链位置影响企业创新模式选择的重要传导路径:在各使用3类指标区分企业对"利润侵蚀效应"与"协调成本效应"敏感性的基础上,结合使用分类回归发现,高产品替代性企业、在位企业以及一般贸易企业由于对"利润侵蚀效应"更敏感,它们创新模式的选择对生产链位置的反应更强烈;高产品复杂度企业、大规模企业以及低管理效率的企业由于对"协调成本效应"更敏感,它们创新模式的选择对生产链位置的反应也更强烈。最后,本文使用Heckman两步法对可能存在的估计偏误进行稳健性检验,结果证实了本文理论模型的主要命题和基础回归结果的稳健性。     

一种新的灰色绝对关联度模型及其应用

为了处理序列曲线间的负相关等问题,并使关联满足一定的性质,基于灰色关联分析的基本思想,本文利用数列曲线的平均相对变化态势构建了一种新的灰色绝对关联度模型,并探讨了模型的唯一性、对称性、相似性、平行性、一致性等性质,而后以新模型对我国及各省市区产业结构的有序度进行了测算,结果表明新模型计算简单,计算量小,更与实际相符。     

An actor-network perspective on business models: How ‘Being Responsible’ led to incremental but pervasive change

Business models have been studied as organizational value logics, which manifest in the states of cognition, artefacts, and activities. There is no conceptual perspective integrating all three of these states yet. In response, this paper develops a conceptual scaffold of an actor-network perspective: Value logics become programs of action as they are embodied in human actors’ cognition and inscribed into artefacts, forming actor networks that enact business model activity systems. An in depth case study of The Company (anonymized) and of its corporate responsibility initiative ‘Being Responsible’ illustrates the empirical application of this perspective. An analysis of 104 interviews with 72 individuals shows how The Company's business model was enacted by a network of human and nonhuman actors. The Being-Responsible artefact engaged in translation through which it enrolled business model actors to enact a responsibility logic in addition to their commercial logic. This changed the business model incrementally, but pervasively. The paper contributes (1) an integration of existing theory on business model logics manifesting cognition, artefacts, and activities in an actor-network perspective, (2) an extension of research on artefacts, exploring their agency when not explicitly related to the business model; and (3) the development of substantive theory that explains incremental, pervasive business model change through distributed processes of translation. The translation perspective also holds promise for explaining the dynamics of business model creation, maintenance, and radical business model change.     

Testing a longitudinal model of distributed leadership effects on school improvement

A central premise in the literature on leadership highlights its central role in organizational change. In light of the strength of this conceptual association, it is striking to note the paucity of large-scale empirical studies that have investigated how leadership impacts performance improvement in organizations over time. Indeed evidence-based conclusions concerning the impact of leadership on organizational change are drawn largely from case studies and cross-sectional surveys. Neither approach satisfies the design requirements for studying the contribution of leadership to performance improvement in organizations. This paper tests a longitudinal, multilevel model of change in distributed leadership, school improvement capacity, and student performance over a four-year period. The results suggest that change in distributed leadership and organizational capacity for improvement make significant contributions to growth in student learning in reading and math.     

考虑时效与公平性的震后应急物资动态配送优化研究

大规模地震后应急物资的高效保障是应急救援有效开展的必要前提。震后应急物资运输与配送包括从区域储备仓库和外围物资集散地运输到区域应急配送中心、由区域应急配送中心配送到各个受灾点两个阶段。应急物资保障具有持续时间长、需求紧迫性强和物资相对短缺等特点。本文以应急物资保障时效性与分配公平性为目标,建立了考虑多种运输方式、多时段动态的应急物资配送中心选址与运输配送路径优化的多目标规划模型,并基于此模型设计了一种带精英策略的非支配排序的遗传算法,以九寨沟地区地震灾难情景对模型进行实证研究,验证了模型和算法的有效性,以期为震后应急物资保障提供理论指导与决策支持。     

CAFTA产业集聚与平衡发展效应实证研究

中国-东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）是在中国主导下成立的区域经济一体化组织（CAFTA）,积极推进自由贸易区内部成员国的产业集聚与产业发展,并通过经济一体化效应,促进东盟各成员国产业升级和平衡发展,本次研究在空间经济学理论基础上,应用产业集聚常用的H指数和模型分析,实证研究区域经济一体化过程中产业集聚效应和产业集聚到平衡发展路径。研究结果表明：有效协调的一体化机制成为自由贸易区的平衡机制;协调加速产业转移;产业集聚的最终结果将走向产业平衡。     

基于CA的产业集群生命周期模拟分析

本文结合产业集群企业投资策略选择,建立产业集群生命周期的CA模型,通过计算机模拟实验验证产业集群生命周期的存在性,并考察企业资金状况、企业技术水平、企业风险偏好、集群投资环境等因素对产业集群生命周期的相对影响,明确关键影响因素。     

知识嵌入性、知识流动与战略联盟结构升级的关系研究

知识嵌入性是知识经济时代战略联盟共享有限资源,推动产业结构升级的重要途径。为打开知识嵌入性与战略联盟结构升级关系的黑箱,以知识管理、战略创新及复杂网络等相关理论为基础,对知识嵌入性的构成维度予以划分。进一步地,设定知识嵌入性的构成维度为联盟结构升级的前置变量,引入知识流动作为中介变量,构建知识嵌入性、知识流动与战略联盟结构升级的概念模型。采用结构方程的研究方法,以长三角地区的战略联盟为研究对象,基于295份有效问卷进行实证检验。研究结果表明:基于知识嵌入的构成维度,知识互补性、知识兼容性、知识紧密度与知识协调度对战略联盟结构升级呈显著的正相关关系,知识流动分别在知识互补性、知识兼容性、知识紧密度、知识协调度与联盟结构升级的关系中起部分中介作用。研究明晰了知识嵌入性、知识流动与联盟结构升级的关系,解释了知识嵌入性对联盟结构升级的作用机理,为战略联盟的管理实践提供有益借鉴。