Notional defined contribution pensions with public reserve funds in ageing economies: An application to Japan

Several developed and developing countries have recently adopted a notional defined contribution (NDC) approach to old‐age pension reform. The NDC is essentially a non‐pre‐funded defined contribution retirement system, in which contributions are credited with a “rate of return” related to aggregate payroll growth, and individual account accruals are maintained in a book‐keeping system. Payouts are annuitized based on the expected mortality of each succeeding retiring cohort. NDC plans may be identified with appropriately calibrated Pay‐As‐You‐Go plans in demographic equilibrium, but the two paradigms diverge when demographic shift is introduced. This paper investigates the key actuarial and economic implications of alternative NDC rules, with a particular focus on Japan, the world's most rapidly ageing economy. We examine the potential role for pension reserves in transitioning to an NDC system, and we show these can be used to smooth the impact of demographic transition to an older society. Finally, we show that countries such as Japan could elect to use pension reserves accumulated in the past to facilitate the transition to an NDC system.     

Rate of return guarantees for mandatory defined contribution plans

Many mandatory defined contribution systems provide a rate of return guarantee. The guarantees provided have generally been backed by a sequential combination of two or more of six different financing sources. Those sources are (1) reserve funds established within the pension fund, using investment earnings on the fund; (2) reserve funds established using funds provided by the owners of the pension fund management companies; (3) a defined benefit plan associated with the defined contribution plan; (4) central guarantee funds financed by contributions from pension funds; (5) funds provided by employers; and (6) the government. Nearly all the guarantees are first backed by a limited liability guarantee derived from investment earnings that would otherwise accrue to workers. In some instances, the guarantee may be funded by employers. Then they are backed by a guarantee financed by capital market institutions — pension fund managers directly or a central guarantee fund. Lastly, they are backed by an unfunded governmental guarantee with unlimited liability that is contingent on the insufficiency of private sector guarantees.     

A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits

This article proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. The proposed ABS splits the pension system in two parts: the pure NDC part and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non‐contributory rights. The article contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy‐makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.     

The effects on intra‐generational inequality of introducing a funded pension scheme: A microsimulation analysis for Estonia

This article uses a single male cohort microsimulation model to analyse the intra‐generational and distributional effects of a shift in Estonia from a defined benefit pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) pension system to a multi‐pillared system with a PAYG scheme with contribution‐based insurance components and a funded pension scheme. We contribute to the literature on microsimulation by showing how introducing contribution‐based insurance components and compulsory defined contribution (DC) schemes can increase pension inequality. Our results show that in the case of a high level of inequality in labour earnings and high long‐term unemployment rates, such as in Estonia, the introduction of a very strong link between contributions and future benefits leads to considerably higher inequality in pension incomes as measured by the Gini coefficient. Simulation results for Estonia suggest that inequality in old‐age pension incomes more than doubles when the reforms mature. In contrast, the inequality in replacement rates decreases.     

Pension financialization and collective risk sharing in Canada and Finland

This article contributes to the debate concerning pension financialization and how countries are adapting their pension systems to respond to demographic ageing. We do so by examining the statutory pension systems of Canada and Finland, which diverge interestingly from current international trends. The Canadian and Finnish public pension schemes reflect two tendencies often associated with pension financialization: an increasing reliance on financial markets and an investment policy with a diversified asset allocation. However, unlike in many other countries, this has not resulted in heightened individual risks in old-age income security caused by a shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pensions – an otherwise common trend internationally.     

Pension scheme fees and charge ratios in 44 countries: A comparative study

Based on data received from pension supervisory authorities, the article reviews 85 different pension schemes in 44 jurisdictions by looking at fees and charges as well as their legal ceilings and their development since 2014. A key finding is the observed decrease in fees and caps. The article presents jurisdictions according to clusters, i.e. by groups of countries with identical or very similar items already covered by pension fees, and analyses the extent to which various cost and fee elements are covered by fees charged to members. Finally, we calculate charge ratios for each cluster to quantify the impact of fees and charges on pension savings. Occupational defined contribution pension schemes and personal plans linked to employment tend to be much more cost effective than personal schemes that have no direct employment link.     

Old Age Pensions in South Africa

This article briefly describes the old age pension system in South Africa, with a special focus on its strengths and the challenges it faces. The article shows that the most pertinent concerns are the level of exclusion from the contributory pension funds, the extent of reliance on the social assistance programme and the lack of institutional capacity to deliver the social assistance programme effectively. The proposed reforms are aimed at achieving a better integrated pension system where contributions are mandatory for all formal sector workers and where contributions are preserved for retirement. The underlying objectives are to limit the growing dependence on social assistance from the State, and at the same time to increase the effectiveness of the social assistance scheme for the target population.     

Income security for older people: An Asian perspective

In Asia and the Pacific, as in other developing regions, the continuing growth of the aged population has a great impact on social security programmes generally and, in particular, on the income security of older persons. In societies where traditional support systems are breaking up, their need for social security protection is increasingly important. A system of social security for the elderly population exists in most countries of the region. Many are provident fund schemes, which are basically saving schemes, and their coverage is low. Where social insurance pension schemes exist, the levels of benefits provided are also low. The focus for future development, therefore, lies in converting the savings schemes into multitiered pension schemes, extending their coverage and raising the level of benefits. In this context the critical question concerns the role of the State and the type of schemes used. The need for public pension schemes is great in Asia and the Pacific, where the level of poverty is comparatively high. Building pension schemes, whether public or private, involves a set of issues that need to be addressed. This article considers the systems currently in place and the challenges and limitations faced when considering the future development of social security in this area.     

Promoting a higher retirement age: A prospect‐theoretical approach

Demographic ageing and the necessity of raising the retirement age is one of the most frequently debated topics among European welfare policy experts. This study used prospect theory as developed in behavioural economics to explain public attitudes towards pension reforms. It argues that, in line with prospect theory, negative incentives are more useful in changing people's attitudes in favour of a higher statutory retirement age than are positive incentives. Therefore, in the case of increasing life expectancy, defined‐contribution schemes that apply actuarial formulae linking the level of starting monthly pension benefits to life expectancy are more useful in promoting a higher retirement age than conventional defined‐benefit schemes, which typically do not forge an automatic connection between longevity and starting pensions. The implications of prospect theory for attitudes towards pension reforms were tested using Eurobarometer survey data collected in 2004 and 2009 in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia.     

The risk of under-insurance in the Finnish statutory pension scheme for self-employed workers: A trajectory analysis

Using unique data on the contribution base, we investigate under-insurance within the statutory pension scheme for self-employed workers in Finland. Under-insurance is defined as the difference between pension-declared income and tax-declared income. The trajectory modelling technique applied has allowed us to estimate the levels of under-insurance for different subgroups and to identify possible explanatory factors. Under-insurance is found to be persistent and large. The analysis reveals six distinctive and homogenous sub-groups of self-employed workers. Close to 84 per cent of these workers pay too little in contributions, often leading to inadequate protection against personal risks. Especially for lower-income self-employed workers, this points to myopic behaviour as regards contributing to the self-employed statutory pension scheme and calls for fine-tuned economic incentives.     

‘I Might not Live That Long!’ A Study of Young Women's Pension Planning in the UK

There has been considerable concern about levels of pension saving especially given increases in longevity and rising pension deficits. In particular, the prospects of many future female pensioners have been questioned. As pensions are determined by contributions throughout the life course it is imperative to comprehend the attitudes, knowledge, expectations and savings habits of people from an early age to explore why under‐saving occurs. This is particularly pertinent given recent governments' emphasis on individual responsibility for financial provision in retirement. However, there is little research which focuses specifically on young women's attitudes or planning towards pensions despite considerable concern about the future of women's pensions. This article considers young women's (18–30) attitudes towards pensions and whether they differ according to socio‐economic status by using interviews with 15 women (five in routine and manual occupations, five intermediate, five professional and managerial) about how knowledge and choice, trust, responsibility, risk and uncertainty impact on their pension decisions. It is evident that the ability and willingness of people to contribute to a pension depends, among other things, on the pension offered by employers, the pension requirements in place and immediate financial needs. Therefore this article shows that pension policy needs to take into account women's employment histories, which are often fragmented and diverse, when considering young women's attitudes towards pension saving.     

Improving gender outcomes in social security retirement systems

Assessing whether retirement systems meet their varying objectives requires analysing outcomes across different categories of beneficiaries with different working, financial, demographic, and family situations. Policymakers should therefore assess systems on the distribution of outcomes rather than average outcomes. Much has been written about the gender inequalities inherent in labour markets and how these are reflected and reproduced in pension systems, and there is growing evidence that recent reforms have exacerbated these trends. Recent research has turned to the policy measures available to policymakers to forestall or reverse these trends, but this literature tends to overlook important administrative measures that have the potential to reduce inequalities in access that could improve pension outcomes for women within the current policy framework. This paper examines the main issues surrounding gender inequality in retirement outcomes; explores the implications of recent reform trends in light of the differential outcomes for women, including policy options to mitigate the negative impacts; and concludes with a review of key administrative measures, including streamlining affiliation procedures, improving information, and simplifying payment of contributions and receipt of benefits and better compliance of employers.     

On welfare effects of increasing retirement age

We develop an OLG model with realistic assumptions about longevity to analyze the welfare effects of raising the retirement age. We look at a scenario where an economy has a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and compare it to a scenario with defined contribution schemes (funded or notional). We show that, initially, in both types of pension system schemes the majority of welfare effects comes from adjustments in taxes and/or prices. After the transition period, welfare effects are predominantly generated by the preference for smoothing inherent in many widely used models. We also show that although incentives differ between defined benefit and defined contribution systems, the welfare effects are of comparable magnitude under both schemes. We provide an explanation for this counter-intuitive result.     

A comparative analysis of pension reforms and challenges in Ghana and Nigeria

Ghana and Nigeria recently joined a number of countries that have incorporated fully‐funded defined contribution pension programmes into their national social security arrangements. Contemporary analyses of pension reforms, however, continue to focus on middle‐income countries in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, as well as on Member States of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development, thereby marginalizing recent pension policy reforms in sub‐Saharan African countries. This article examines the complete and partial shifts to defined contribution pension programmes in Nigeria and Ghana respectively, and points to a number of contextual and contingency factors that challenge the use of defined contribution schemes as a means to address problems of benefit adequacy in the sub‐Saharan African context.     

Voluntary Pension Saving for Old Age: Are the Objectives of Self‐responsibility and Security Compatible?

Fiscal pressure and demographic change lead governments to seek ways of reducing state expenditure on pensions. Individuals are asked to take more responsibility, and funded, supplementary pension schemes have been established in many countries. This article looks at schemes that are voluntary – the NEST or Personal Accounts scheme in Britain and the Riester Pension scheme in Germany. It examines the debate about whether it is worthwhile for some people to participate in pension schemes that are not mandatory – particularly those with low incomes and/or potentially broken careers. The small pensions they accumulate in such schemes merely offset entitlements to means‐tested pension benefits, leaving them no better off in old age. Concerns about the behavioural consequences of pension means‐testing are not new. Nonetheless, few policymakers have been willing to look at when and how such concerns were expressed in the context of voluntary pension savings. Equally, they have seldom been prepared to explain the costs involved in guaranteeing savings‐based pensions or the implications that the lack of offering such a guarantee might have for individual behaviour. The state has sought for people to take greater ‘self‐responsibility’ for their retirement income, but many people wish for some certainty with respect to the pensions they can expect. These goals might well be in conflict. Whether the ‘state pension for the 21st century’, as proposed by the UK government, will succeed in satisfying the objectives both of the state and of pension savers remains an open question.     

Assessing the pension reform potential of a notional defined contribution pillar

Abstract As some of the limitations of the traditional pay‐as‐you‐go defined benefit public pension model have become more evident in recent years, pension experts have begun searching for alternative models. The notional defined contribution model, also financed on a pay‐as‐you‐go basis, has emerged as one of the major new approaches. Drawing on evidence from schemes in six countries (Sweden, Italy, Poland, Latvia, Kyrgystan and Mongolia), this article aims to describe the notional defined contribution model and to review its strengths and limitations relative to the major alternatives, the pay‐as‐you‐go defined benefit model and the funded defined contribution model. A four‐pillar pension model is proposed.     

The development and Reform of Social Security Pensions:The Approach of the International Labour Office

The reform and the development of pension schemes are affected by the values society places on the provision of income security in old age and the resources it is prepared to allocate for the purpose. This paper examines those values and the issues arising from them. The objective is to propose reforms which will simultaneously provide full coverage with good governance, prevent poverty in old age, and result in indexed, guaranteed and reliable pensions for those onaverage incomes, all with minimum economic distortion or adverse economic effects. The question of the most appropriate design has to be weighed against these other factors, which will determine not only what is feasible and what is not, but also where the most desirable balance lies. The optimum structure would seem to involve a mix of defined benefit and defined contribution schemes.     

Work histories and workers’ failure to satisfy pension contribution requirements: A comparison of Mexico and Uruguay

Comparing Mexico and Uruguay, this article examines the work history of workers and the challenges they face to satisfy the minimum contribution period for eligibility to receive a contributory old-age pension. Administrative data on work histories is used to formulate a survival model aimed at estimating hazard rates of entering and transitioning out of a given contribution status. This model is then used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to forecast contribution histories. Results suggest that the hazard rate is negatively associated with the length of a worker’s spell in his or her current status and warn that, both in Mexico and Uruguay, a significant group of workers will find it difficult to gain entitlement to a contributory pension in old age. The manner in which each of these national systems has addressed the challenges associated with low contribution densities may explain the two countries’ very different coverage results.     

The provision of complementary pensions: Objectives, forms and constraints

In all former centrally planned economies, the question of how to restructure old-age income provisions and open the way to non-governmental, complementary pension schemes is being posed. This paper deals with four main areas of that problem. First, the various objectives of public and complementary schemes are discussed. The paper argues that without a broad consensus among the major interested parties there is a considerable danger that envisaged objectives will not be achieved. The second section reviews the main forms of complementary pension scheme and discusses the central characteristics of occupational and personal schemes. The third section addresses two critical policy areas: the kind of regulations that may be required in order to enforce the social and economic objectives; and the likely social and economic implications. On the basis of experience in OECD countries and the specific situation in countries in transition, the final section offers some tentative conclusions for Czechoslovakia, the main one being that during the initial phase of economic transition preference should be given to a simple defined contribution plan. Such a complementary scheme would be consistent with the lack of developed financial markets and the privatization plan of the government and require neither a great number of highly trained accountants and actuaries nor the comprehensive set of regulations a defined benefit plan is likely to dictate.