How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe

The increase in births within cohabitation in the United States and across Europe suggests that cohabitation and marriage have become more similar with respect to childbearing. However, little is known about additional childbearing after first birth. Using harmonized union and fertility histories from surveys in 15 countries, this study examines second conception risks leading to a live birth for women who have given birth within a union. Results show that women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower second conception risks than married women in all countries except those in Eastern Europe, even when controlling for union duration, union dissolution, age at first birth, and education. Pooled models indicate that differences in the second conception risks by union type between Eastern and Western Europe are significant. Pooled models including an indicator for the diffusion of cohabitation show that when first births within cohabitation are rare, cohabiting women have significantly lower second conception risks than married women. As first births within cohabitation increase, differences in second conception risks for cohabiting and married women narrow. But as the percent increases further, the differentials increase again, suggesting that cohabitation and marriage are not becoming equivalent settings for additional childbearing. However, I also find that in all countries except Estonia, women who marry after first birth have second conception risks similar to couples married at first birth, indicating that the sequence of marriage and childbearing does not matter to fertility as much as the act of marrying itself.     

The impact of first-birth timing on divorce: New evidence from a longitudinal analysis based on the central population register of Norway

The association between divorce risks in first marriage and the timing of the first birth is inspected in a life-table analysis of registered birth and marriage histories from Norway. One of the main conclusions is that the high propensity to divorce among women who have had a premarital birth is not confined to those who marry someone other than the father of their child. Also, women who have had a premarital child with their husband, run a much higher risk of marital breakup than do those who had their first baby in wedlock. The relative difference between these two groups, which appears to be particularly large at the beginning of marriage, has decreased during the last two decades. It is argued that couples who postpone childbearing beyond two years of marriage may have particularly low divorce rates.     

Pathways to a Third Child in Sweden

The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work.     

The Effect of Union Status at First Childbirth on Union Stability: Evidence from Eastern and Western Germany

It is often assumed that cohabitation is much less stable than marriage. If cohabitation becomes more common among parents, children may be increasingly exposed to separation. However, little is known about how the proportion of cohabiting parents relates to their separation behavior. Higher shares of childbearing within cohabitation might reduce the proportion of negatively selected couples among cohabiting parents, which could in turn improve their union stability. This study focuses on parents who were cohabiting when they had their first child. It compares their union stability within a context in which they represent the majority or the minority. The German case is well-suited to this research goal because non-marital childbearing is common in eastern Germany (60 %) but not in western Germany (27 %). The data came from the German Family Panel (pairfam), and include 1,844 married and cohabiting mothers born in 1971–1973 and 1981–1983. The empirical results suggest that the union stability of cohabiting mothers is positively related to their prevalence: survival curves showed that eastern German cohabiting mothers had a greater degree of union stability than their western German counterparts. This difference increased in the event-history model, which accounted for the particular composition of eastern German society, including the relatively low level of religious affiliation among the population. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity did not change this result. In sum, these findings indicate that context plays an important role in the union stability of cohabiting parents.     

Home and Where the Heart Is: Marriage Timing and Joint Home Purchase

This article evaluates the relationship between the timing of marriage and the purchase of a jointly owned home among Swedish cohabiting couples. Data for this analysis come from the Swedish Housing and Life Course Cohort Study (N = 1,596 couples; 2,006 cohabiting spells). The author develops models to proxy for simultaneity and intentions and test hypotheses about positive and negative and long- and short-run relationships between the two life-course events. The author uses a novel modeling approach, allowing for differences in the risk before, concurrently and after the conditioning event. Results indicate a positive relationship between marriage and joint home purchase and suggest the possibility of an ordering of events: For some couples, formalizing their union through marriage may be a prerequisite for a joint home purchase.     

Cohabitation and child Well-Being

In “Cohabitation and Child Well-Being,” Wendy D. Manning, an associate professor in Bowling Green State University's Department of Sociology, summarizes what is known about cohabitation and its effects on children. She describes how some people view “cohabiting-couple” households (that is, unmarried couples cohabiting with a biological child of at least one of the adults) as a two-parent family form and that one of the major goals of the 1996 welfare reform law was to encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families. The main sources of data she uses are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Decennial Census, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), and the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG).     

Couples’ First Child Intentions and Disagreement: An Analysis of the Italian Case

The aim of this article is to examine the determinants of couples’ childbearing intentions, by explicitly taking into account the agreement or disagreement of the two members of the couple. The relevance of the partner’s reproductive intentions has been well recognised in the literature, but few studies have provided in-depth analyses of the fertility plans of both partners. In our study, we used the household-level data from a survey on “Family and Social Subjects”, carried out by the Italian National Statistical Office in 2003, which provides characteristics on both partners. We adopted a couple’s perspective which allows us to give a unitary picture of the concordant or discordant nature of partners’ first child intentions. We found that a lack of agreement in the reproductive decision-making process is likely to occur in the Italian couples where the role of the woman is less traditional. In particular, cohabitant, highly educated and working women are more likely to be in disagreement with their partners in the decisions concerning having a first child. Being religious may be also a source of discordance in the couples’ reproductive plans. Our findings support the utility of taking a couple-based approach in studies on fertility intentions.     

Partners in life: Unmarried couples in Hungary

Non-marital cohabitation in Hungary is documented using data from the 1970 and 1980 censuses and the 1984 microcensus. Observed patterns contrast with those in several other countries, particularly those of western and northwestern Europe. Firstly, in Hungary unmarried couples or ‘partners in life’ are more common, and their proportion is increasing more rapidly, among the previously married than among the single. Secondly, both among the single and the previously married, mothers are more likely than childless women to be cohabiting. Thirdly, although proportions cohabiting are higher in urban than in rural areas, partners in life are concentrated among those with the lowest educational level.     

Union Stability and Stepfamily Fertility in Austria,Finland, France &; West Germany

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that unique effects of stepfamily composition on union fertility are confounded with differences between stepfamilies and couples without stepchildren in the risk of union disruption. We use birth and union histories from Fertility and Family Surveys in Austria, Finland, France and West Germany. The risks of a union birth and separation are modeled simultaneously, allowing for the potential effects of unobserved predispositions to have a child or to separate on the other event. We test hypotheses drawn from the value of first and second shared births to couples: Net of the couple’s combined parity, the birth risk will be greater if the child is (a) the first in a union, (b) the first biological child for one of the partners, or (c) the second child in a union.Henz, U. et Thomson, E., 2005. Stabilité des unions et fécondité des familles recomposées en Autriche, Finlande, France et Allemagne de l’ouest, Revue Européenne de Démographie, 21: 3–29.     

“单独二孩”政策的利与弊

"单独二孩"政策有利有弊,其直接意义在于缓解"一个孩子"政策所带来的问题。该政策的积极效果表现在:可以适当提高生育水平;适当缓解中国人口年龄结构的老化;群众有更多自主选择生育的权利;家庭结构得到平衡发展;缓解出生人口漏报;缓解出生性别比过度偏高;缓解人口素质逆淘汰;推动计划生育工作综合改革。然而,由于政策的调整在一定程度上仍然属于"硬着陆",必然会带来一些问题,主要包括:近几年会出现符合单独二孩政策夫妇的集中生育;很多高危人群生育会导致孕产妇死亡率上升和出生缺陷发生率的上升;政策调整本身就带来了生育的不公平或机会的不平等。建议:用奖励的方式鼓励年轻妇女晚生育第二个孩子;设立高危妊娠咨询和指导中心;政府为无机会和能力再生育的家庭承担更多责任。     

Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East–West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East–West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East–West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.     

河南省出生人口性别比有关问题探析

全国第四次、第五次人口普查资料显示,20世纪80年代中期以来,我省出生人口性别比有所上升。出生人口性别比的状况,会对未来人口发展、婚姻、家庭以及社会稳定产生较大的影响。因此,深入研究出生人口性别比有关问题,采取有效措施综合治理,这是我们当前面临的重要而紧迫的任务。     

Using Split-Population Models to Examine Predictors of the Probability and Timing of Parity Progression

Survival models are widely used in demography to analyse the timing of events such as death or leaving school. However, for events such as marriage or childbirth that are not experienced by everyone, standard survival analysis conflates the speed of progressing to an event with the proportion that never experience the event. The problem can be overcome by applying a ‘split population’ or ‘cure’ survival time model which splits the population into those who eventually experience the event and those who do not, and determines the speed of progression for the former. This paper demonstrates the use of split-population models in examining variables which affect the propensity and timing of additional births. The data analysed are from a sample of women from the 2001 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (N = 4,611). We model the propensity and time to have another child given sex composition of existing children, number of siblings and age at first birth for three cohorts of women. The study finds evidence of a preference for a mixed-sex composition, and an increased propensity for women with two boys to try for a third child. Women in later cohorts tend to have more children if they themselves come from larger families. Age at first birth is strongly associated with the propensity to have another child and with the speed of progression.     

结构化视阈下的闽南农村未婚先育现象研究——以闽南农村为例

通过实地调查发现,当前闽南农村未婚先育现象呈现上升趋势,这不仅是对传统婚育制度的冲击,也是对现行婚姻生育政策的挑战。引入结构化理论,详细分析未婚先育现象产生的社会制度、村落文化等宏观背景和青年个体的行为选择。这种行为表面上超脱传统实质上是传统生育观的回归。     

Marriage Migration Versus Family Reunification: How Does the Marriage and Migration History Affect the Timing of First and Second Childbirth Among Turkish Immigrants in Germany?

Our study focuses on the fertility of first-generation female and male Turkish migrants in Germany. To evaluate whether timing effects such as fertility disruption or an interrelation of marriage, migration and childbirth occur, we examine first and second births in the years before and after immigration to Germany. The Turkish sample of the Generations and Gender Survey which was conducted in 2006 offers the unique opportunity to examine Turkish immigrants as a single immigrant category. We question the common understanding that Turkish immigrants who arrived to Germany after 1973 mainly arrived for family reunification resulting in high birth intensities immediately after immigration. To distinguish different circumstances under which male and female immigrants have arrived to Germany, we include the combined marriage and migration history of the couple. We find that first birth probabilities are elevated during the years immediately following migration. But this effect is not universal among migrants with different marriage and migration histories. It appears that the arrival effect of high birth intensities is particularly high among female immigrants and is evident only among marriage migrants, that is Turks who married a partner who already lived in Germany at the time of the wedding. By contrast, among those who immigrated for family reunification, we do not find such an arrival effect.     

Cohabitation and social background: Trends observed for Swedish women born between 1936 and 1960

This paper throws some light on changing family-building patterns in Sweden during the 1960s and 1970s. The family-building events analyzed are first informal cohabitation, first marriage, birth of first child (both outside a union and within a consensual union), and separations from childless informal cohabitation. Results from three previous studies are first summarized. These analyze the patterns by socio-economic and regional origin, applying multiple-decrement techniques separately for each background factor. The new results presented here are based on analyses that use multiplicative hazard models, permitting isolation of the effects of socio-economic background and region of childhood and adolescence respectively. It is generally found that socio-economic background is more important than the region where the woman grew up. Marriage intensities, however, which exhibit a clear regional pattern, are exceptions to this.     

Rising Age at Marriage and Fertility in Southern and Eastern Africa

This paper examines the trends in marriage and fertility in nine countries of southern and eastern Africa using DHS data. First, some background about the age at marriage, age at first birth and the proportion of premarital first births is shown. Next, the total fertility is decomposed into its pre- and post-marital parts. Then, pre- and post-marital fertility are examined in more detail. Finally, the effect of rising age at marriage on the fertility declines is measured. It is estimated that around one sixth to one third of the fertility declines are due to rising age at marriage.     

农村外来婚配与本地婚配夫妇婚姻质量比较研究——以江苏吴江为例

调查江苏吴江农村213对外来南京婚配夫妇和292对本地婚配夫妇的婚姻质量发现:不同类型的对象对婚姻质量的总评价平均得分均在70分以上。除物质生活满意度外,外来婚配夫妇和本地婚配夫妇婚姻质量趋同。异地因素对于婚姻质量的各个维度均没有显著性影响。不同类型夫妇婚姻质量趋同的原因有社会现代化、对外地人及外来婚配家庭的歧视减少、外来婚配中的选择机制、家庭关系的相对简单化、外来婚配方及其家庭的自我婚姻调适策略等。     

再婚人群计划生育现状及思考

随着离婚率的逐年上升，再婚人员这一特殊群体照顾生育的人数比例也逐年增加，计划外怀孕、生育现象逐年增多。为扼制再婚人群计划外怀孕、生育现象，建议加强婚和育的同步管理，健全照顾再生一个孩子的审批制度等     

单独两孩政策下独生子女数量、结构变动趋势预测

基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料及2010年“六普”特别汇总数据,对单独两孩政策下我国独生子女规模的测算方法、步骤、空间分布和年龄构成进行研究后发现：全国独生子女数量仍将持续增长,2050年将达到3.03亿人,但比原计划生育政策下将减少0.45亿人。独生子女的空间分布以城镇、东部地区较多,到2050年,城镇独生子女规模将达到2.70亿人,占独生子女的89.1%;独生子女省际分布差异大,到2050年,江苏、山东等12省区的独生子女存量在1 000万人以上,西藏、青海、海南则不到100万人。独生子女的年龄构成当前以40岁以下为主,到21世纪40年代中期转为40岁及以上中老年人为主,因此,应提前做好独生子女父母养老保障的应对工作。