论家庭人口文化的内涵建设

家庭人口文化有外延拓展与内涵建设之分,前者是通过联姻或人口迁移,把一个家庭的人口文化向另一个家庭介入,或者把一个区域或国度特有的家庭人口文化向另一个区域或国家延伸,后者是在家庭内部对原有的人口文化进行结构上的调整与提升,实现家庭人口文化的现代化,所以家庭人口文化的外延拓展常常可以成为家庭人口文化内涵建设的一个动力因素,而家庭人口文化内涵建设又可能集结为家庭人口文化对外拓展的一个推动力量。     

中国人口现代化发展的历史与现状

利用已建立的人口现代化评价指标体系,对中国及各地区人口现代化发展的历史与现状进行了量化考察与分析。研究表明:中国及各地区人口现代化内部各方面发展极不平衡,加快经济发展与人口(社会)结构的调整是加快中国人口现代化进程的必然选择。     

香港人口变化的历史作用

在香港经济辉煌、社会有序发展的背后，有一个被人忽略的因素，就是香港人口群体的自身的规律性变化，及其人口现代化的管理方式。它的人口转型的成功，成为香港社会发展的里程碑；它的每个阶段，或每个不同时期的人口增长的现实，都成为香港政府调解经济，制定政策的依据，它的现代化人口管理手段，及与此相适应的公用部门管理模式，为香港１９９７年平稳回到祖国的怀抱，创造了先决条件。当然，目前的香港人口模式并不是最佳模式，况且任何最优人口模式也都是相对本国本地区而言，尤其香港人口的社会结构、机械变动结构也不尽然。但是，我们完全可以从它的历史发展进程中，洞察其变，引以为鉴，把我们自己的工作做好。     

宁夏人口产业结构的现状与演进初探

人口产业结构的合理化具有双重含义。第一重含义是指把人口产业结构不断推向更高级阶段的合理化;第二重含义是指人口产业结构在一定的历史条件和经济发展阶段上的合理化。因此,我们在考察一个国家或者一个地区特定历史时期的人口产业结构合理与否时,应当以上述的两种含义为着眼点。第一重含义的合理化的考察,主要涉及结构高度问题,即研究一国或一地区某一时期的人口产业结构在根据经济发展的历史和逻辑序列顺向演进过程中所达到的阶段或层次。第二重含义的合理化的考察,则以结构均衡和结构效益问题为中心,即主要研究一国或一地区某一时期的人口产业结构与国民经济的产业结构适应的程度如何,产业之间和产业内部是否存在着经济活动人口的积压与短缺并存的结构性矛盾。本文拟结合宁夏的经济情况,对宁夏人口产业结构的现状以及今后的演进,做以下初步探讨。     

战后日本人口的发展及其对工业现代化的影响

战后三十七年来,日本人口有了很大的新发展,并且经历了人口激增、增长率锐降、稳定低增长和出生率再度下降四个发展阶段。这个时期尽管后来出生率一再下降,但其人口的总增长速度却大大超过同期欧美主要国家,而且人口素质提高的速度和人口构成的变化,也比战前快得多。这样,一方面在日本形成了一个空前规模的“人力资源”,另一方面,客观上也形成了一个前所未有的巨大的“人口压力”。 战后日本人口的发展,同当时的经济恢复和工业现代化,曾发生尖锐的矛盾。但是,日本很快就摆脱了当时形成的“人口压力”。后来由于经济增长速度的加快和人口增长率的下降,使人口同工业现代化的矛盾得到了缓和。六十年代以后,不仅没有造成相对过剩人口的进一步增加,反而得天独厚地利用了这个空前雄厚的廉价人力资源发展了当时日益现代化的生产力。     

第四讲 我国的人口政策

一个国家、一个政党对于人口这种社会现象及其发展变化所持的态度、认识、手段和措施,构成一个国家的人口方针和人口政策。可见,人口政策是统治阶级在人口方面的意志的综合反映和集中表现。由于不同的国家,有不同的社会制度,有不同的政治、经济、军事状况和人口状况,因此,代表统治阶级利益的国家和政府,可以有极不相同的人口政策。 下面,结合我国情况来谈一谈有关人口政策的几个问题。     

江苏人口职业结构变迁与影响因素分析

人口职业结构变迁既是社会发展和经济发展的结果,也是社会及其经济发展程度的一个重要标志,社会结构的发展和经济结构的变迁可以通过人口职业结构的变迁表现出来。本文力图通过1978-2009年江苏地区相关统计数据分析,对江苏省人口职业结构变迁及其影响因素进行了深入分析。结果认为：经济结构与产业结构的优化调整,教育事业的快速发展积极推动了江苏省人口职业结构的变化,同时,人口结构的变化又为经济结构与产业结构的优化调整,教育事业的快速发展提供了基础资源。     

人口流迁与人口现代化:系统科学的视野

本文对国内近年颇为关注的“人口现代化”命题给予了新的系统的诠释，认为“人口现代化”是人口系统内部及人口系统与非人口系统之间相互作用的过程和结果，也是人口类型、人口变量、人口要素或人口特征自传统向现代的演进、转化过程。它肇始于“人口转变”，成就于“人口转型”。“人口流迁”则是使人口系统开放并维系耗散结构必不可少的重要条件     

试论经济结构与人口转变

人口转变论是以西欧人口出生率和死亡率的历史资料为依据,对人口发展不同阶段作出描述性说明的理论。其基本观点认为,人口发展不是一个独立自行运动的过程,而与社会经济条件变化密切相关;人口的发展过程可以划分为三个阶段,与这三个阶段相适应,人口再生产分别呈现出“高—高—低”、“高—低—高”和“低—低—低”三种形式。虽然各国人口再生产的转变情况和转变动因     

关于人口现代化的几点思考

人的现代化概念已为人们广为接受 ,但目前国内外对人的现代化的阐释基本局限在人的思想素质方面 ,其原因与人这一概念的高度抽象性和整体性有关。人口是表现人自身存在和发展状况的一个较为具体的概念 ,人口现代化研究既是对人的现代化研究的拓展和深化 ,也是可操作层面上的人的现代化研究。人口现代化包括人口再生产类型现代化 ,人口素质现代化 ,人口结构现代化。根据初步建立的人口现代化指标体系测算 ,1 999年中国人口现代化实现程度 48% ,高于同期中国整体现代化实现程度 8个百分点     

Developments and prospects for population statistics in countries of the former Soviet Union

"This paper examines recent developments and prospects for population statistics in the former Soviet Union, whose dissolution provides both opportunities and problems. It is important for scholars to be aware of past limitations of Soviet data, since the formation of independent states has neither removed bureaucratic impediments to the production of high-quality data, nor has it led to a population more ready to answer questions fully. Temporarily at least, there is a decrease in the amount and comparability of available information, and in some instances, in its quality. We begin with an overview of the system used to gather population statistics in the former Soviet Union and its inherent problems. We then discuss the challenges faced by the newly independent countries and the changes they need to make to achieve global comparability, including a shift toward the use of standard international definitions and away from political restrictions on data availability."     

第二次世界大战对苏联人口状况的影响

第二次世界大战期间为了赢得战争胜利,苏联付出了惨重的人口代价。战争对苏联人口状况产生了深刻的影响,不仅加重了战前已存在的人口危机程度,而且对居民的身体健康状况、结婚率和家庭规模造成了更深程度的破坏。战后流行病大规模爆发,出生率下降、死亡率上升,性别比例、年龄结构严重失衡,人口数量大幅减少,并持续数十年,为20世纪90年代初俄罗斯爆发的人口危机埋下了隐患。     

The Seeming Paradox of Increasing Mortality in a Highly Industrialized Nation: The Example of the Soviet Union

A discussion of the surprising phenomenon of declining life expectancy in a highly developed country such as the Soviet Union during the 1970s shows that this result was probably due only in a small part to ‘true’ causal changes in the conditions of living. At least equally important is the weaknesses of the measure of life expectancy by itself. The logical difference between period and cohort measurement is one part of the explanation. Another important factor is the adverse selection of risks by war, which makes international and intertemporal comparisons less valuable. Factors like population redistribution or changes in the registration also contribute to the explanation. Thus; life expectancy (in particular period life expectancy) should not, without closer consideration, be accepted as a reliable indicator of human welfare under such circumstances.     

Labour force. Outlook to the year 2020 according to the current Central Statistical Office forecast

"The paper deals with the changes in the number and structure of population of working age in Poland and by voivodeships to the year 2020 as presented by the most current demographic forecast of the Central Statistical Office. The period 1995-2020 is going to be characterised, in its first stage, by a serious increase in the number of population of working age and then, after the year 2010, the size of this group will considerably contract.... The changes flagged will vary geographically."     

Inequalities in Healthy Life Expectancy in Eastern Europe

Compared to the large body of research on mortality differentials between East Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, little attention has been paid to how overall population health status differs between these two country groups. This article investigates disparities in population health, measured by healthy life expectancy (HLE) between ages 20 and 74, for 23 Eastern European countries in 2008. There are substantial disparities in partial HLE between East Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, amounting to differences of 10 years on average for men and women. In addition, factors reflecting the malfunction of existing social structure are inversely associated with partial HLE. Accordingly, populations in countries where corruption, restriction of freedom, and violence are prevalent spend fewer years in good health.     

The centenarian question and old-age mortality in the Soviet Union, 1959–1970

Are claims of extraordinarily low mortality levels in the USSR justifiable? Applying a recently developed methodology appropriate for nonstable populations to 1959 and 1970 census data from the Soviet Union, we find that mortality is generally understated for the country as a whole and for various regions and republics. This is particularly so for the republics composing the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. Age overstatement appears to be extremely pronounced in the oldest segments of the population. Using the new methodology, we can derive the age distribution that is uniquely implied by a given life table and a set of age-specific rates of growth obtained from two censuses. When we use the official Soviet life tables in this procedure, we find that the reported number of centenarians is at least 28.9 percent overstated for males and 7.5 percent for females. If one were to posit that Soviet mortality during 1959 to 1970 was, in fact, no better than the Swedish mortality experience during roughly the same time period, then the true number of centenarians could be no more than 2 percent of that reported.     

Reconstruction of fertility trends for the female population of the U.S.S.R

Abstract The article describes fertility trends among Soviet women during the past 40 years as compared to American women during the same period of time. Period-specific fertility rates were arrived at by relating the annual total of live births to a pattern of age-specific fertility rates estimated for each year and also to the number of women for each single year of age. These rates were then appropriately re-arranged and compressed into five-year age groups to form a series of cohort-specific fertility rates. The findings rest on somewhat conjectural estimates of live births and numbers of women in the U.S.S.R., some of which were originally prepared before the 1959 Soviet census. The tentative evidence shows that changes in the period-specific fertility of Soviet women were far more irregular and dramatic in the past, than among American women. After World War II these rates dropped in the U.S.S.R. below those of the United States, except for women over 30 years of age. On the other hand, the cohort-specific rates of Soviet women, although declining from one cohort to the next, at present show their magnitude in the cumulative series for older ages to be marked by higher than among American women. This experimental investigation of fertility in the Soviet Union makes no claim to high standards of accuracy and validity. Its intended purpose is to stress the desirability of shifting emphasis from the temporal and prognostic type of study, characteristic of present-day demographic research about the U.S.S.R., to the generational and historical approach.     

广州市非户籍常住人口的变化分析

广州市是中国社会经济发展水平较高的大城市,也是“珠三角”外来人口的主要流入地。2010年全国第六次人口普查结果显示,广州市的非户籍常住人口规模高达476．0万人,占广州市人口总量的37．47％。而且,通过与2000年全国第五次人口普查结果的对比发现,广州市非户籍人口的年龄结构、地区分布、家庭户比重、行业及职业构成等都发生了一定的变化。非户籍常住人口构成的这些变化,对广州市的外来人口管理、公共服务的均等化以及户籍制度改革等提出了新要求。     

中国人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响研究

本文利用相关年份的《中国统计年鉴》和人口普查数据,根据粗出生率与总和生育率的关系与特征,构建了人口年龄结构系数及其对粗出生率变动影响的贡献率指标,分析了建国以来人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响。研究发现：1949—1979年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响很小;1980—1993年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响迅速上升,年龄结构的贡献率增大;1994—2008年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响趋于下降,人口惯性势能在减弱;2009—2011年,受80—90年代出生高峰的影响,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响再次凸显,年龄结构的贡献率迅速增大。从年龄别生育率逐年下降的特点,也可以证明近年推动我国人口增长的力量主要是由于年龄结构带来的惯性增长。     

Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed.