Distribution-free prediction intervals for the future current record statistics

Prediction of records plays an important role in many applications, such as, meteorology, hydrology, industrial stress testing and athletic events. In this paper, based on the observed current records of an iid sequence sample drawn from an arbitrary unknown distribution, we develop distribution-free prediction intervals as well as prediction upper and lower bounds for current records from another iid sequence. We also present sharp upper bounds for the expected lengths of the so obtained prediction intervals. Numerical computations of the coverage probabilities are presented for choosing the appropriate limits of the prediction intervals.      

Confidence and prediction intervals based on interpolated records

In several statistical problems, nonparametric confidence intervals for population quantiles can be constructed and their coverage probabilities can be computed exactly, but cannot in general be rendered equal to a pre-determined level. The same difficulty arises for coverage probabilities of nonparametric prediction intervals for future observations. One solution to this difficulty is to interpolate between intervals which have the closest coverage probability from above and below to the pre-determined level. In this paper, confidence intervals for population quantiles are constructed based on interpolated upper and lower records. Subsequently, prediction intervals are obtained for future upper records based on interpolated upper records. Additionally, we derive upper bounds for the coverage error of these confidence and prediction intervals. Finally, our results are applied to some real data sets. Also, a comparison via a simulation study is done with similar classical intervals obtained before.     

Comparison among non parametric prediction intervals of order statistics

Abstract

In this article, we are interested in conducting a comparison study between different non parametric prediction intervals of order statistics from a future sample based on an observed order statistics. Typically, coverage probabilities of well-known non parametric prediction intervals may not reach the preassigned probability levels. Moreover, prediction intervals for predicting future order statistics are no longer available in some cases. For this, we propose different methods involving random indices and fractional order statistics. In each case, we find the optimal prediction intervals. Numerical computations are presented to assess the performances of the so-obtained intervals. Finally, a real-life data set is presented and analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

Improved nonparametric tolerance intervals based on interpolated and extrapolated order statistics

The standard approach to construct nonparametric tolerance intervals is to use the appropriate order statistics, provided a minimum sample size requirement is met. However, it is well-known that this traditional approach is conservative with respect to the nominal level. One way to improve the coverage probabilities is to use interpolation. However, the extension to the case of two-sided tolerance intervals, as well as for the case when the minimum sample size requirement is not met, have not been studied. In this paper, an approach using linear interpolation is proposed for improving coverage probabilities for the two-sided setting. In the case when the minimum sample size requirement is not met, coverage probabilities are shown to improve by using linear extrapolation. A discussion about the effect on coverage probabilities and expected lengths when transforming the data is also presented. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated using three real data sets.     

Confidence intervals for n in the exponential order statistics problem

A simplified proof of the basic properties of the estimators in the Exponential Order Statistics (Jelinski-Moranda) Model is given. The method of constructing confidence intervals from hypothesis tests is applied to find conservative confidence intervals for the unknown parameters in the model.     

Calculating nonparametric confidence intervals for quantiles using fractional order statistics

In this paper, we provide an easy-to-program algorithm for constructing the preselected 100(1 - alpha)% nonparametric confidence interval for an arbitrary quantile, such as the median or quartile, by approximating the distribution of the linear interpolation estimator of the quantile function Q L ( u ) = (1 - epsilon) X [ n u ] + epsilon X [ n u ] + 1 with the distribution of the fractional order statistic Q I ( u ) = Xn u , as defined by Stigler, where n = n + 1 and [ . ] denotes the floor function. A simulation study verifies the accuracy of the coverage probabilities. An application to the extreme-value problem in flood data analysis in hydrology is illustrated.     

Bayesian prediction of order statistics based on k-record values from exponential distribution

Bayesian prediction of order statistics as well as the mean of a future sample based on observed record values from an exponential distribution are discussed. Several Bayesian prediction intervals and point predictors are derived. Finally, some numerical computations are presented for illustrating all the proposed inferential procedures.     

Nonparametric prediction of future order statistics

Prediction of censored order statistics from a Type-II censored sample can be done with trivial bounds having perfect confidence. However, given independent samples from the same absolutely continuous distribution, improved bounds can be attained. In this regard, we develop here point prediction based on L-statistics for predicting order statistics (OS) from a future sample as well as for predicting censored OS from a Type-II censored sample. An example is taken to illustrate these ideas, and the limiting case wherein a single independent sample is arbitrarily large is also discussed.     

Two-sample Bayesian prediction for sequential order statistics from exponential distribution based on multiply Type-II censored samples

In this paper, the problem of predicting the future sequential order statistics based on observed multiply Type-II censored samples of sequential order statistics from one- and two-parameter exponential distributions is addressed. Using the Bayesian approach, the predictive and survival functions are derived and then the point and interval predictions are obtained. Finally, two numerical examples are presented for illustration.     

Prediction intervals for ordinary and dual generalized order statistics from two independent sequences

ABSTRACT

Based on the observed dual generalized order statistics drawn from an arbitrary unknown distribution, nonparametric two-sided prediction intervals as well as prediction upper and lower bounds for an ordinary and a dual generalized order statistic from another iid sequence with the same distribution are developed. The prediction intervals for dual generalized order statistics based on the observed ordinary generalized order statistics are also developed. The coverage probabilities of these prediction intervals are exact and free of the parent distribution, F. Finally, numerical computations and real examples of the coverage probabilities are presented for choosing the appropriate limits of the prediction.     

Characterizations based on record values and order statistics

Consider a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables {_Xi,i?1}$\{X_i,i?1\}$ with a common absolutely continuous distribution function F  . Let _X1:n?_X2:n???_Xn:n$X_{1:n}?X_{2:n}???X_{n:n}$ be the order statistics of {_X1,_X2,…,_Xn}$\{X_1,X_2,\dots ,X_n\}$ and {_Yl,l?1}$\{Y_l,l?1\}$ be the sequence of record values generated by {_Xi,i?1}$\{X_i,i?1\}$. In this work, the conditional distribution of _Yl$Y_l$ given _Xn:n$X_{n:n}$ is established. Some characterizations of F   based on record values and _Xn:n$X_{n:n}$ are then given.     

Confidence intervals for prediction intervals

When working with a single random variable, the simplest and most obvious approach when estimating a 1???γ prediction interval, is to estimate the γ/2 and 1???γ/2 quantiles. The paper compares the small-sample properties of several methods aimed at estimating an interval that contains the 1???γ prediction interval with probability 1???α. In effect, the goal is to compute a 1???α confidence interval for the true 1???γ prediction interval. The only successful method when the sample size is small is based in part on an adaptive kernel estimate of the underlying density. Some simulation results are reported on how an extension to non-parametric regression performs, based on a so-called running interval smoother.     

Extended exponential distribution based on order statistics

The extended exponential distribution due to Nadarajah and Haghighi (2011 Nadarajah, S., Haghighi, F. (2011). An extension of the exponential distribution. Statistics 45:543–558.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is an alternative to and always provides better fits than the gamma, Weibull, and the exponentiated exponential distributions whenever the data contain zero values. We establish recurrence relations for the single and product moments of order statistics from the extended exponential distribution. These recurrence relations enable computation of the means, variances, and covariances of all order statistics for all sample sizes in a simple and efficient manner. By using these relations, we tabulate the means, variances, and covariances of order statistics and derive best linear unbiased estimates of the extended exponential distribution. Finally, a data application is provided.     

UMPU tests based on sequential order statistics

Sequential order statistics with conditional proportional hazard rates form a regular exponential family in the model parameters. This finding is used to establish uniformly most powerful unbiased (UMPU) tests for a variety of hypotheses.     

On characterizations based on record values and order statistics

Consider an infinite sequence of independent random variables having common continuous c.d.f. F. For 1 ⩽ i ⩽ n, let X_i:n denote the ith order statistic of the first n random variables, and let {X(n), n ⩾ 1} be the sequence of upper record values. We examine the similarities and differences between the dependence structures of the X_i:n's and the X(n)'s, with an emphasis on the latter. We present an interesting situation involving a characterization of F using the moment sequence of records. We obtain characterizations based on the properties of certain regression functions associated with order statistics, record values, and the original observations. We discuss the resemblance between some known and some new characterizations based on order statistics, record values and those based on the properties of truncated F.     

Characterizations based on regression assumptions of order statistics

Let X₍₁₎≤X₍₂₎≤···≤X_(n) be the order statistics from independent and identically distributed random variables {X_i, 1≤i≤n} with a common absolutely continuous distribution function. In this work, first a new characterization of distributions based on order statistics is presented. Next, we review some conditional expectation properties of order statistics, which can be used to establish some equivalent forms for conditional expectations for sum of random variables based on order statistics. Using these equivalent forms, some known results can be extended immediately.     

Characterization based on generalized entropy of order statistics

ABSTRACT

In the present study, several characterizations of order statistics are obtained on the basis of the generalized entropy. Under some conditions, it is shown that the parent distribution can be uniquely determined by equality of generalized entropy of order statistics.     

Best unbiased prediction of order statistics in stable distributions

We introduce the best unbiased prediction of missing order statistics of a stable distribution, based on conditional expected value. We present necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of conditional moments of stable order statistics. These conditions enable us to compute unknown parameters using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We reveal the efficiency of the presented method through a simulation study.     

On the distribution-free confidence intervals and universal bounds for quantiles based on joint records

In this paper, we consider three distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles given joint records from two independent sequences of continuous random variables with a common continuous distribution function. The coverage probabilities of these intervals are compared. We then compute the universal bounds of the expected widths of the proposed confidence intervals. These results naturally extend to any number of independent sequences instead of just two. Finally, the proposed confidence intervals are applied for a real data set to illustrate the practical usefulness of the procedures developed here.