我国商品住宅价格调控政策效果研究

1998年以来,我国房地产行业发展迅速,并逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业,极大地推动了我国的经济增长。但房价的过快增长也增加了人们的生活压力,并对经济运行造成不利影响。为了抑制房价的过快增长,国家推出了一系列的调控政策,包括金融政策、土地政策和税收政策。2010年政府推出了限购政策,通过抑制需求来控制房价。研究表明:1998至2002年的调控政策取得了较好的效果;2003至2008年调控效果不佳;2008年底至2009年政府并没有对房价进行有力调控;2009年末至2012年初,限购令的效果非常明显。     

Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.     

Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland

This paper provides empirical evidence of the role of the euro in the genesis of the recent Irish financial-economic crisis. By using a Taylor rule we measure the appropriateness of the ECB’s one-size-fits-all policy rate for the Irish economy. A counterfactual analysis suggests that the Irish interest rate should have been on average 6.5% higher. Using a BVAR and multivariate housing model, we provide econometric evidence that under an alternative sovereign monetary policy, the average house price would have been 25–30% lower just before the housing bust. In addition, it shows that a monetary policy tailored to the needs of the member state prevents housing prices from dramatically increasing.     

A model of the inflationary process in six major O.E.C.D. economies: Empirical results and policy implications

In contrast to most recent empirical work on inflation which has concentrated on the size and stability of coefficients in the wage equation, this paper provides a reexamination of the price equation. Evidence is presented on the structural determinants of inflation in six large industrial nations. It is demonstrated that price equations which include capital costs and excess demand among the regressors perform exceedingly well according to the usual statistical criteria. The results of this study indicate that the inflationary process possesses a high degree of uniformity among the larger industrial countries. This pertains not only with respect to the specific independent variables in price equations, but also with respect to the high degree of uniformity of the estimated coefficients. Additionally, the findings indicate that lower productivity growth and higher capital costs have contributed significantly to the inflationary process since 1974. Furthermore, since higher capital costs are one consequence of tighter monetary policies, the adoption of such policies in response to the two oil price shocks of the 1970s may have offset their intended deflationary effects on prices through the linkage of wage costs and aggregate demand.     

试论我国廉租房发展的瓶颈及其突破

我国廉租房制度的推出,对于缓解高房价带来的社会矛盾,解决低收入家庭的住房问题起到了重要的作用,也受到了人民群众的欢迎。但与旺盛的廉租房需求相对应的是,廉租房的供给却很少。廉租房制度的推广面临着资金来源不足、房源供应不足和管理制度不完善等几大瓶颈。要改变这一现状,充分发挥廉租房的作用,需要结合我国的国情,通过低成本收购现房、少量新建廉租房和充分运用社会租赁房等多渠道保障廉租房源供给;通过运用信托产品或资产证券化产品等多渠道筹措廉租房建设资金;建立包含扩大保障范围、明确划分补贴层次、建立动态资格认定、建立专业管理机构在内的廉租房管理制度。     

Do housing regimes matter? Assessing the concept of housing regimes through configurations of housing outcomes

Based on a conceptualisation of de‐commodification as the right to decent and affordable housing, we assessed to what extent this right is realised for low‐to‐moderate‐income owners and renters across Western European housing regimes in 1995 and 2012. If differences in the social production of housing do matter (regardless of type of welfare state and the country's economic affluence), then distinct configurations of housing outcomes should exist. This was found to be indeed the case: More state intervention results in good housing conditions and low housing cost burdens across tenure‐age groups (but particularly for renters), although more so in social‐democratic than in conservative‐corporatist welfare states. A more important role for the family in housing provision is associated with higher subjective housing cost burdens and poor housing conditions. As housing regimes became more commodified between 1995 and 2012, it seems that configurations of housing outcomes have become less associated with the features of housing regimes, and more with type of welfare state and the country's economic affluence.     

房地产限购政策实施效果的实证分析——基于双重差分模型的估计

房地产限购政策对遏制房价过快上涨、抑制投资性购房需求具有重要意义。运用我国70个大中城市2009年9月至2011年10月的面板数据,采用双重差分模型对房地产市场限购政策的实施效果进行了系统而严格的实证研究。结果发现,房地产限购政策的实施对我国相关城市的房价有大约1.88%的负面效应,但是短期效果并不明显。     

我国房地产价格风险及其法律防范机制

当前我国房地产价格过高且居高不下,在一定程度上背离价值规律,蕴含极高风险。虽然现行的房地产开发制度和商品房按揭制度促进了房地产市场化,带来了房地产业的短期繁荣,但由于我国房地产价格形成机制极具投机性,缺乏相应的风险控制机制,面对席卷全球的金融危机,极易酿成风险。采取法律手段,限制房地产业的信贷发放、改革现行公积金制度、抑制房地产投机,对控制房地产价格泡沫的膨胀,防范房地产价格风险大有裨益。     

The Relationship between Urban Development and Housing Prices in China

This article analyzes the relationship between urban development and housing prices in China. When comparing data from three recent consecutive years, with some exceptions, the result shows that in general, housing price is determined by urban development in most urban regions. The article summarizes strategies for affordable housing development and housing policy in China, and analyzes the implications of this study for social work and education. It advocates comprehensive new thinking on a broader topic: how to maintain healthy housing prices and stable development in China.     

我国药价虚高现象的三重因素分析——信息不对称、委托代理与需求价格弹性

近年来,药品价格虚高已成为社会热点问题之一。看病贵、住房贵、上学贵已成为压在人们身上的新的"三座大山"。本文试从医患、药患和政府对药价的制定和监管三个方面的信息不对称,医患之间、医药之间的委托代理关系,和药品的需求价格弹性三重因素来分析我国目前药价虚高的现象,并提出相应对策。     

The unregulated private rental sector and the impact on Israeli housing market

Israel’s rapid population growth, deriving from its unique demographics, is generating a consistent rise in the demand for residential housing. The low interest rate environment in Israel since the beginning of the last decade has also contributed to the rise in demand for housing, which exceeded the available supply and led to a continuous rise in the price of housing. The various government programs all attempted to halt the rising prices, with no long-term success, if any. Policymakers focused on making ownership of housing affordable for young couples but directed their activity at repressing the demand for housing among investors and housing upgraders. This interpretive article focuses on analyzing Israel’s housing policy and indicates the built-in failure engrained in this policy, as the demand for housing in Israel is a rigid demand deriving from the country’s demographics and values and therefore attempts at repressing it are futile in essence. The housing policy aimed at making housing affordable for young people must examine, before it is finalized, their overall incentives to own housing on one hand and the obstacles they encounter that prevent them from opting for rentals on the other, and accordingly formulate the features and different terms of the policy. The research conclusion indicates the need to implement a public policy that will promote the rental alternative as an efficient way of meeting the demand for housing on one hand and of curbing the price of housing on the other.     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

Why do tenants leave social housing? Exploring residential and social mobility at the lowest rungs of Australia's socioeconomic ladder

Historically, social housing in Australia operated as a springboard for social mobility. For many working families, public housing tenancy was an opportunity to save for a house purchase deposit. Latterly, tenant exits from public to private housing have declined to very low levels. This has raised concerns about systemic barriers to residential and social mobility for social renters, and about the consequent longer waiting times for applicants in need of social housing. Drawing on administrative data collected by social housing providers in NSW and Victoria, and in‐depth interviews with 95 former and current social housing tenants in both states, this paper examines tenant attitudes, intentions and motivations as regards future house‐moves. We argue that the primary disincentives to exit relate to affordability and security of tenure in private rental, rather than factors related to the social housing system itself.     

Urban Housing as an Issue of Redistribution through Planning? The Case of Dhaka City

The rapid growth of population, the mushrooming of poor settlements and unplanned urbanization have crucial implications for the efficiency and equity of urban services. The resultant infringements of critical human rights throw into focus the importance of housing as a social policy issue. Urban services are strained in Dhaka city. Urban management has been disrupted as a result of spatial encroachment and environmental degradation. In addition to land scarcity, land speculation and endemic corruption, the high price of land is also a product of the system of land registration. The dearth of valuable urban land, together with delays in urban planning and its implementation, have made the acquisition of land for housing prohibitively expensive for middle and low‐income households. Consequently, the quality of the housing environment is deteriorating. The problem of housing finance is intrinsically linked to its affordability, being currently the prerogative only of the affluent. This article delineates the inherent lack of integrated urban planning, the lacunae within institutions responsible for urban management – and, contextually, the nature of housing as a social policy issue, where reinforced, coordinated planning and administration could ensure distributive benefits even to the poor.     

Welfare Generosity,Abortion Access,and Abortion Rates: A Comparison of State Policy Tools*

Objective. This article tests if welfare generosity is related to abortion rates, allowing effects to vary by program type and abortion policy context. Methods. Measuring welfare generosity with respect to cash assistance, family caps, Medicaid, child care and family leave policies, I estimate fixed effects models of abortion rates in 48 U.S. states over 1987–2000. Results. More expansive family leave laws are associated with lower abortion rates. In states that do not enforce any of three key abortion policies, increased Medicaid eligibility and child care spending predict higher abortion rates. For Medicaid, this relationship diminishes and reverses itself as states add abortion regulations. Conclusion. Welfare state expansions may help reduce abortion, but programs' effects are not unambiguously pro‐natalist. Estimated impacts of welfare generosity on abortion rates vary by program, and some with abortion policy context.     

Living conditions of women who experience violence from their partners: Norway and Australia comparisons

This article briefly explores the comparative ways in which the Australian and Norwegian welfare system supports women and children escaping violence, when they are seeking to become established independently. The two welfare systems are compared with regard to family structure, women and the labour market, women and income, support for crisis accommodation and housing, and child care. It demonstrates that Norway provides a more woman‐friendly welfare state.     

对依法规范股票价格的思考

我国的法律虽然有关于股票发行价格的规定 ,但却不全面、不合理。在实践中 ,股票的定价发行是在没有投资者参与的情况下 ,由发行人与有关方面确定的 ,这违反了公平、平等的证券法基本原则。对此 ,应当完善有关的法律、法规 ,增加关于股票发行价格的更加合理、具体的规定。在股票的二级市场上 ,股票的交易价格虽然有日涨跌幅的限制 ,但对于首日上市的股票价格却没有限制规定 ,应当在有关规定中增加相应的内容 ,对首日上市的股票价格也要予以限制。     

A small forecasting model of the world oil market

An annual, small-scale econometric model of the world oil market was developed to analyze oil market conditions and oil prices for the period 1986–1991. The model determines the oil price by a market-clearing condition, given world economic activity and the strategic supply behavior of the OPEC core countries. The effects of OPEC production cut in 1987 upon oil prices are evaluated, and alternative oil price profiles are provided. A simulation experiment suggests that if the OPEC core is pressed to defend the OPEC share in oil supply, then wide price swings may become inevitable.     

Home prices and the 2008 presidential election: Evidence from state level data

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of housing prices in the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Based on data for the 50 states, this study postulates a multivariate model in which the impact of home values is exposed while controlling for other explanatory factors might have exerted independent effects on the Democratic victory. Results of estimation indicate a significant inverse effect of property price appreciation on Democratic votes.     

地方政府行为与住房市场健康发展研究——一个研究框架

住房市场是一个分散、区域性分割的市场,中央政府无法直接调节,对住房市场的微观调控是地方政府的职责之一。地方政府在住房市场的职责贯穿从住房生产到房屋消费的各个环节,涉及确定需求、土地供应、存量管理、基础设施建设等众多领域,有时甚至直接给特定群体提供住房。以地方政府行为视角建立一个分析框架,重点剖析地方政府在住房市场中的职责,住房市场利益相关者及管制创新,住房健康发展的内在机制,中央—地方在住房市场既分工又协作的二级管理模式有效运转的约束条件,地方住房战略制定及其有效性等问题,有助于促进我国住房市场的健康发展。