The developing program on social indicators at the U.S. Bureau of the Census

The Bureau of the Census Fiscal Year 1978 Budget provides funds for the first time for beginning a modest but coordinated effort in the field of social indicators and associated activities. The Bureau, buttressed by the advice and participation of other Government agencies, organizations and individuals outside of the Federal establishment long interested in social indicators, intends to:

1. consolidate and extend the development of the concepts and principles advanced previously relating to social indicators;
2. continue and expand the efforts and communication network established at the Office of Management and Budget, in connection with the preparation of the Social Indicators 1973 and 1976 reports;
3. systematically identify and assemble information sets and bits that are contained in censuses and surveys, household and establishment universes, administrative records, studies and projects capable of contributing to social indicator and social accounting development;
4. establish the basic analytic framework and an orderly set of detailed interrelated social accounts capable of being aggregated or disaggregated to appropriate levels of abstraction; and
5. prepare research and analytic studies and make available information generated from the social indicator and social accounting efforts at the Bureau, subject to limitations associated with confidentiality and copyright provisions pertaining to private sources of information.

The organizational structure to carry out this program consists of four primary work centers: information, social indicators, social accounts, and special studies. The structure is designed to provide for continuity of purpose, improve chances for individual achievement and group benefit, and to generate products that will contribute to a more accurate understanding of life experiences in the context of the interplay of social and economic forces and political and juridical institutions.     

U.S. Bureau of the Census: facing the future labor shortage

"This article begins with a brief overview of the [U.S.] Census Bureau's preparations for the future, then discusses the demographic and social changes that are affecting the national labor force, from which the Census Bureau hires its workers. The final section considers how the bureau and its mission are affected by these changes."     

Research Note: Babies Born After Census Day: How the Census Bureau Addressed Dates of Birth After Census Day in the 2010 Census

The fundamental purpose of the decennial Census is an enumeration of the U.S. population at a particular “Census moment” for the purpose of apportionment. The “Census moment” for the 2010 Census occurred at 11:59 p.m. on April 1, 2010. This means that, ideally, all persons alive and living in the United States at that moment are included in the Census count, while any person not alive at that moment is excluded. In reality, this goal is challenging to achieve. Since the actual date of data collection often varies widely, it is possible that individuals are included, or excluded, in the count due to this discrepancy between the Census Day and the date of data collection. In this paper, I explore how the Census Bureau addresses this issue specifically when dates of birth after Census Day are encountered. First, I describe the three methods of data collection (Self-administered questionnaires, enumerator-administered questionnaires, and Telephone Questionnaire Assistance/Coverage Follow-Up operator-administered questionnaires), and how dates of birth after Census Day are addressed in each of these methods. Next, I explore related findings from the 2010 Census, including how many dates of birth after Census Day were found in the 2010 Census data, how they were processed according to data collection method, and how this impacted the final Census count. Finally, I discuss the performance of the new procedures related to dates of birth after Census Day that were implemented in the 2010 Census, along with implications for moving forward into future Censuses.     

Racial and Ethnic Differences in U. S. Census Omission Rates

This article assesses differences in rates of omission across seven race-ethnicity groups in the 1980 census to learn more about the social factors that condition census enumeration. Findings indicate that there are multiple sources of error, that these sources reflect distinctive ethnic attributes to a greater degree than shared minority status, and that census omissions have both inadvertent and motivational causes. The discussion notes some of the implications for improving coverage in future censuses.     

U.S. women at work

Women made up 43% of the U.S. labor force in 1980, up from 29% in 1950, and 52% of all women 16 and over were working or looking for work compared to 34% in 1950. The surge in women's employment is linked to more delayed marriage, divorce, and separation, women's increased education, lower fertility, rapid growth in clerical and service jobs, inflation, and changing attitudes toward "woman's place." Employment has risen fastest among married women, especially married mothers of children under 6, 45% of whom are now in the labor force. Some 44% of employed women now work fulltime the year round, but still average only $6 for every $10 earned by men working that amount. This is partly because most women remain segregated in low paying "women's jobs" with few chances for advancement. Among fulltime workers, women college graduates earn less than male high school dropouts. Working wives were still spending 6 times more time on housework than married men in 1975 and working mothers of preschool children are also hampered by a severe lack of daycare facilities. Children of working women, however, appear to develop normally. Equal employment opportunity and affirmative action measures have improved the climate for working women but not as much as for minorities. The federal income tax and social security systems still discriminate against 2 income families. Woman's position in the U.S. labor force should eventually improve with the inroads women are making in some male-dominated occupations and gains in job experience and seniority among younger women who now tend to stay in the labor force through the years of childbearing and early childrearing, unlike women in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Measuring Ethnicity with U.S. Census Data: Implications for Mexicans and Arabs

U.S. racial and ethnic populations can be defined by a number of census questions—race/ethnicity, ancestry, place of birth, and/or language—but little is known about how using alternative definitions of identity affect the size and characteristics of different groups. This article examines this question using combined data from the 1 % and 5 % Public Use Microdata Samples in census 2000, using Mexicans and Arabs as case studies. The analysis uses the standard method of classifying these groups (Hispanic origin and Arab ancestry) as a baseline to explore differences across the range of possible permutations of ethnic identity. In the Arab case, persons captured using alternative definitions of identity (Arabic language at home and/or born in an Arab country) are lesser educated, more likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as non-white or multi-racial than the Arab population as a whole. In contrast, persons in the Mexican alternative definition group (Mexican ancestry and/or born in Mexico) are more highly educated, less likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as white than the Mexican population as a whole. The article concludes with research and policy implications of these findings.     

Underreporting of abortion in surveys of U.S. women: 1976 to 1988

Although research on reproductive behavior depends heavily on information from surveys, abortions are characteristically underreported in such data. Estimates of the level of reporting are made for each of the recent major surveys of U.S. women: the 1976, 1982, and 1988 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, the 1976 and 1979 National Surveys of Young Women, and the National Longitudinal Surveys of Work Experience of Youth. The estimates are based on comparisons with external counts of abortions taking place. We examine variation by characteristics of women, trends over time, and the possible effects of length of recall and of the way in which questions about abortion are asked. Abortion reporting is found to be highly deficient in all the surveys, although the level varies widely. Whites are more likely to report their abortions than nonwhites. Special, confidential questioning procedures hold promise for improving the results.     

Region of Birth and Disability Among Recent U.S. Immigrants: Evidence from the 2000 Census

This study aimed to test the “healthy immigrant” hypothesis and assess health heterogeneity among newly arrived working-age immigrants (18–64 years) from various regions of origin. Using the 5% sample of the 2000 U.S. Census (PUMS), we found that, compared with their native-born counterparts, immigrants from all regions of the world were less likely to report mental disability and physical disability. Immigrants from selected regions of origin were, however, more likely to report work disability. Significant heterogeneity in disabilities exists among immigrants: Those from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia reported the highest risk of mental and physical disability, and those from East Asia reported the lowest risk of physical disability. Furthermore, Mexican immigrants reported the lowest risk of mental disability, and Canadian immigrants reported the lowest risk of work disability. Socioeconomic status and English proficiency partially explained these differences. The health advantage of immigrants decreased with longer U.S. residence.     

The changing U. S. labor force and occupational differentiation by sex

The degree of occupational differentiation by sex in the U.S. labor force is examined utilizing various measures and occupational classifications over the period 1900-1970. A consideration of comparable occupations over time indicates that while occupational differentiation by sex is still substantial, an irregular, measurable decline in that differentiation has occurred during this century. Existing labor force structure seems relatively unimportant in explaining this ongoing change. Apparently more significant are social and historical factors as they have influenced specific occupations in certain decades.     

White Residential Segregation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Conceptual Issues, Patterns, and Trends from the U.S. Census, 1980 to 2010

Racial and ethnic diversity continues to spread to communities across the United States. Rather than focus on the residential patterns of specific minority or immigrant groups, this study examines changing patterns of White residential segregation in metropolitan America. Using data from the 1980 to 2010 decennial censuses, we calculate levels of White segregation using two common measures, analyze the effect of defining the White population in different ways, and, drawing upon the group threat theoretical perspective, we examine the metropolitan correlates of White segregation. We find that White segregation from others declined significantly from 1980 to 2010, regardless of the measure of segregation or the White population used. However, we find some evidence consistent with the group threat perspective, as White dissimilarity is higher in metro areas that are more diverse, and especially those with larger Black populations. Nevertheless, our findings indicate that Whites having been living in increasingly integrated neighborhoods over the last few decades, suggesting some easing of the historical color line.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.     

The Role of Chance in the Census Bureau Database Reconstruction Experiment

Population Research and Policy Review - The Census Bureau plans a new approach to disclosure control for the 2020 census that will add noise to every statistic the agency produces for places below...     

The changing influence of religion on U.S. fertility: Evidence from rhode Island

Traditionally one of the indisputable generalizations in demography has been that Catholics have higher fertility than Protestants and Jews (Freedman, Whelpton, & Campbell 1959; Ryder & Westoff 1971; Westoff, Potter, & Sagi 1964; Whelpton, Campbell, & Patterson 1966). Recently, however, doubts have been raised about the continued validity of this longstanding and heretofore widely accepted generalization.     

Playing Cat and Mouse at the U.S.-Mexican Border

Border control and apprehension activity represents a major element of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Does apprehending an undocumented migrant deter remigration? If it does not, does it change future migration behavior? I explore these questions by testing hypotheses about the effects of apprehension on the actual and desired length of stay in the United States and on the frequency of migration for undocumented Mexican male migrants. Results suggest that INS policy may well be backfiring. Migrants stay in the United States longer on non-apprehended trips and stay in Mexico for shorter spells between trips to compensate for the cost of a past apprehension.     

U.S. population: where we are; where we're going

This Bulletin reviews recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, the outlook for the remainder of the 1980s, and prospects for longterm growth. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1% a year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births-deaths) still adds some 1.7 million people a year, despite the rapid postbaby boom fall in fertility to a near-record low rate of 1.9 births/woman in 1981. With increasing numbers of refugees, net legal immigration averaged 600,000/year in 1979-81 and the net inflow of illegal immigrants may now be 500,000 a year. Uncertainty over potentially large numbers of immigrants complicates projections of future U.S. population size. Currently, the U.S. death rate is at an alltime low. More than 1/2 the population now resides in the South and West. Rural areas and small towns grew faster than urban areas in the 1970s for the 1st time in over a century. Educational attainment is at an alltime high, as is labor force participation, due to increasing employment among women and the baby boom generation's arrival at working ages. The age composition of the population, with the bulge of the baby boom generation surrounded by the older "depression" generation born during the 1930s and the younger "baby bust" generation born since the end of the 1960s, presents special problems for U.S. society.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

From new entries to retirement: The changing age composition of the U.S. male labor force by industry

The process whereby the age composition of an industry is formed appears to be largely a function of past rates of growth in employment; the social (or institutional) framework sets limits and affects the ensuing age composition but relatively little. The following types will illustrate this process. 1. Consider an industry which has increased considerably more rapidly in employment over several decades than has the total labor force. The rapid growth brings in a disproportionately large share of youth who are first entering the labor market; other younger workers move from slowly growing (or declining) industries. These movements add many more younger workers. On the other hand, there is little, if any, unemployment in the industry so that there are few pressures being exerted on the older workers to retire, and relatively few will retire. Under these circumstances the age composition will be younger than tliat of the entire male working force. 2. Consider an industry which has grown slowly, if at all, for some time. There will be comparatively fewer (in comparison with the first example) new entries and less mobility from other industries. The men already engaged in this industry will continue to work there; they gradually become older and are not counterbalanced by increasing numbers of young workers. Unemployment is likely to be higher, leading to a higher retirement rate. There are also likely to be large numbers of men a decade or two under the retirement age-the heritage of an "ancient" period when the industry had experienced significant increases in employment; these add pressure on the older men and more retire. The age composition of such an industry gradually veers toward the older side; it is considerably older than that of the entire male working force. At any given moment of time most industries will reflect variable past growth rates. For example, one industry may have a very large proportion of young workers because it grew very rapidly in employment only during the decade prior to the time of study (i.e., the time of a decennial census); another may have a large proportion in the middle ages reflecting very rapid growth two or three decades earlier, followed by very slow growth in the decade prior to the time of study; and so forth.In light of the foregoing analysis, it appears that technological change, as measured by average annual changes in output per worker, has little bearing on the age composition of an industry. Conversely, the latter probably does not affect changes in output per worker.