Measuring Child Poverty in South Africa: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale and an Updated Profile

This paper offers evidence on the sensitivity of child poverty in South Africa to changes in the adult equivalence scale (AES) and updates the child poverty profile based on the Income and Expenditure Survey 2005/06. Setting the poverty line at the 40th percentile of households calculated with different AESs the scope and composition of child poverty are found to be relatively insensitive to the scale used. The rankings of children of different ages, girls versus boys, racial groupings and children living in rural versus urban areas are unaffected by choice of AES, although some provincial rankings on the poverty headcount measure are. The proportions of children and households ‘correctly’ identified as poor for the full range of scales is extremely high. These findings support the argument that it may be appropriate for profiling poverty in South Africa to use a poverty line based on a per capita welfare measure. For the construction of the child poverty profile, per capita income is used as the welfare indicator with the poverty line set at the 40th percentile of household. The profile suggests that poverty amongst children is more extensive than amongst the population or adults even after the massive injection of transfers into households with poor children through the child support grant. The child poverty headcount, depth and severity are all highest amongst children age 0–4 and lowest amongst those aged 15–17, who are not yet beneficiaries of the grants. They are also highest amongst African and Coloured children. Large variations across provinces remain. The analysis underlines the importance of prioritising children in the fight against poverty, particularly in their earliest years.     

Ethno-Linguistic Affiliation and Income Poverty in Native Households with Children: Finland 1987–2011

The child poverty rate has increased noticeably in Finland since the mid-1990s, and there are numerous studies in this area. However, little is known about child poverty in the two native and equal population groups, Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers. Using detailed register-based data that cover the period 1987–2011, we analyze how child poverty depends on parental ethno-linguistic affiliation, and whether there is variation in income poverty across these households over time. The poverty measure is relative and based on equalized taxable household income of households with children. Odds of poverty are estimated with logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations to account for repeated observations at the household level. The analyses are restricted to areas with both Swedish- and Finnish-speaking settlement. Single-parent and two-parent households are analyzed separately. Poverty rates increased in all major types of households during the study period, but variation by ethno-linguistic affiliation was fairly modest. Swedish-speaking single-parent and two-parent households experienced a smaller increase in the poverty rate than Finnish-speaking ones, while patterns observed for exogamous households were less clear. The contribution of control variables on the ethno-linguistic poverty differences was modest. Considering that the ethno-linguistic groups studied are indigenous and equal, the small differences in poverty rates between Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers are evidence of a democratic and well-functioning welfare state, although the increasing overall poverty rates over time require future scrutiny by both policy makers and researchers.

     

Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans’ well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables associated with discretionary time and time poverty. The data confirm the idea that individuals in households with children have less discretionary time and are thus more likely to be time poor than those in households without children. Controlling for other household characteristics, an additional child reduces a household adult’s daily discretionary time by 35 min. Surprisingly, while one might expect the necessary and committed activities required of an individual to be less in a two-adult household with children than in a one-adult household with children because child care can be shared, the data show that the presence of such a second adult only marginally reduces the necessary and committed time burden of an individual household member. Perhaps even more surprisingly, household income is not a statistically significant correlate of discretionary time or time poverty.     

Population growth and poverty in the developing world

The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.     

贫困地区劳动力迁移、农户收入与贫困的缓解——基于新疆农户面板数据的实证分析

本文基于新疆30个贫困县、3000个农户、2008-2010年的微观面板数据,在控制了家庭规模、劳动力数量等家庭特征变量和粮食播种面积等村庄特征变量的前提下．运用固定效应法与工具变量法分别考察了劳动力迁移规模、迁移方式与迁移区位对家庭收入的影响．并进一步分析了劳动力迁移对贫困的缓解效应。回归结果表明：劳动力迁移规模虽然对农户农业收入有负向影响．但显著提高了农户人均收入与利他性收入：自发性迁移与政府组织性迁移方式均能显著提高农户收入,且自发性迁移的作用更强;省内县外迁移对农户收入的提高最为显著,其次为县内乡外迁移．省外迁移不影响农户收入：劳动力迁移规模提高了中等收入农户的收入水平。但对贫困户的贫困无缓解效应．也不影响富裕户的收入水平。     

Familial Influences on Poverty Among Young Children in Black Immigrant,U.S.-born Black,and Nonblack Immigrant Families

This study examines how familial contexts affect poverty disparities between the children of immigrant and U.S.-born blacks, and among black and nonblack children of immigrants. Despite lower gross child poverty rates in immigrant than in U.S.-born black families, accounting for differences in family structure reveals that child poverty risks among blacks are highest in single-parent black immigrant families. In addition, within two-parent immigrant families, child poverty declines associated with increasing assimilation are greater than the respective declines in single-parent families. The heads of black immigrant households have more schooling than those of native-black households. However, increased schooling has a weaker negative association with child poverty among the former than among the latter. In terms of racial disparities among the children of immigrants, poverty rates are higher among black than nonblack children. This black disadvantage is, however, driven by the outcomes of first-generation children of African and Hispanic-black immigrants. The results also show that although children in refugee families face elevated poverty risks, these risks are higher among black than among nonblack children of refugees. In addition, the poverty-reducing impact associated with having an English-proficient household head is about three times lower among black children of immigrants than among non-Hispanic white children of immigrants.     

Cheaper by the dozen? The marginal time costs of children in the Philippines

The important relationship between fertility rates and economic development has prompted many researchers to try and better understand the determinants of family size. It has repeatedly been shown that the costs of children, both direct and indirect, are one of the most important determinants of fertility, exerting a significantly negative effect on birth rates in both developed and developing countries. Many studies which investigate the relationship between the costs of children and family size have assumed that these costs do not vary with parity. However, there is substantial evidence that the marginal costs of children are not constant but decrease with birth order in developed countries. In this paper, the hypothesis that there are diminishing marginal time costs of children is tested using household data from the developing country setting of the Philippines. By examining the determinants of additional time spent in childcare before and after the birth of a child, it is found that the marginal time costs are not the same across households of various sizes. Firstborn children cost significantly more in terms of additional mother's time than children of higher birth orders. In addition, the time costs of the second child are found to be significantly greater than those of the third child. However, these economies of scale in childcare are limited and do not extend beyond three children. The effect of birth spacing on the marginal time costs of children is also found to be significant.     

Household Trajectories in Rural Ethiopia: What Can a Mixed Method Approach Tell Us About the Impact of Poverty on Children?

The paper explores the dynamics of child and household poverty in rural Ethiopia using three rounds of household survey and qualitative data collected by Young Lives, a longitudinal study of child poverty. It uses a mixed-method taxonomy of poverty to classify children and their households into four groups, analyse their movements in and out of poverty, and explore the underlying factors. The final section of the paper uses qualitative case studies to explore child welfare dynamics in more detail, looking at the interplay between the progress or decline of households and that of children within those households. It concludes that while the percentage of poor households within this sample reduced from 50 to 20 % between rounds 1 and 3 (2002–2009), these changes were not always beneficial to children and did not reach nearly 1 in 10 households classified as ultra-poor. A deepened understanding of those changes, employing both quantitative and qualitative methods, is deemed crucial in post-2015 millennium development goal discussions.     

External Shocks,Household Consumption and Fertility in Indonesia

This paper examines the impact of idiosyncratic income shocks on household consumption, educational expenditure and fertility in Indonesia, and assesses whether the investment in human capital of children and fertility are used to smooth household consumption. Using four different kinds of self-reported economic hardships, our findings indicate that coping mechanisms are rather efficient for Indonesian households that perceive an economic hardship. Only in case of unemployment do we find a significant decrease in consumption spending and educational expenditure while fertility increases. These results indicate that households that perceive an unemployment shock use children as a means for smoothing consumption. Regarding the death of a household member or natural disaster we find that consumption per person even increases. These results are consistent with the argument that coping mechanisms even over-compensate the actual consumption loss due to an economic hardship. One important lesson from our findings is that different types of income shock may lead to different economic and demographic behavioral adjustments and therefore require specific targeted social insurance programs.     

中国大城市不同人群生育意愿的 变迁趋势及比较研究 ——以上海市为例

生育意愿研究有水平研究和趋势研究两个视角,后者更能反映人们观念的变迁,更能预判未来生育水平的变动。文章以上海市为例,采用横断历史元分析法(Cross-temporal meta-analysis),将1981年以来的30多年间上海市范围内开展的26项涉及居民生育意愿调查的结果串联起来,结合其中5项调查的个案数据分析,考察我国大城市不同社会经济特征人群的生育意愿纵向变化趋势并进行子人群间的比较。研究发现20世纪80年代以来上海户籍城乡居民的生育意愿均不断减弱并且二者逐渐趋同,生育意愿的"城乡之别"已然消失;在沪外省市流动人口的生育意愿强于户籍人口,"内外之分"仍然存在,但也显示出未来有趋同的可能性;独生子女与非独生子女的生育意愿比较显示户籍人口中独生子女与非独生子女的生育意愿差异极小,流动人口中非独生子女的生育意愿略强于独生子女;从不同文化程度和收入水平的人群比较来看,文化程度越高的户籍人口生育意愿越强,流动人口的生育意愿随文化程度的提高呈现"两头高、中间低"的特征,无论是户籍人口还是流动人口,高收入人群的生育意愿均相对较高;但是无论哪个人群的平均意愿子女数均已低于2个孩子。     

Labor Migration,Remittances and Economic Well-being of Households in the Philippines

Labor Migration has long been viewed as a strategy adopted by the household unit to allocate family resources rationally to increase the flows of income and to raise family standard of living. The research reported here examines the extent to which remittances sent by Filipino overseas workers increase the income and standard of living of households in the Philippines. Data for the analysis were obtained from a representative sample of 2,388 households drawn in 1999–2000 from four major “labor sending” areas in the Philippines. The analysis compares households with and without overseas workers to estimate the contribution of remittances to household income and to household standard of living (measured once by an ‘objective’ indicator and once by a ‘subjective’ assessment). The data reveal that due to remittances the income of households with overseas labor migrants is considerably higher than the income of households without overseas workers. The data also reveal that remittances are used mostly for consumption purposes (e.g. purchase of food, clothing, education, and goods) and that most of the difference in standard of living (whether measured on the ‘objective’ or the ‘subjective’ scale) between households with and without overseas workers are attributed to remittances. The implications of labor migration and the policy that encourages and supports labor migration for the Filipino society are evaluated and discussed.

"Struggling to Keep the Wolf from the Door"? Analysis of Rural Poverty Using a Consumption-Based Approach in West Belesa District,Ethiopia

Ethiopia has one of the highest poverty rates in the world where 24% of the population lives in extreme poverty. While urban poverty reduced from 26% in 2011 to 15% in 2016, rural poverty reduced only from 30 to 26% in the same periods. Improper identification of the rural poor and ill-understanding of the extent of rural poverty is among the challenges in designing appropriate poverty reduction interventions in rural areas. Thus, this study analyzes the extent of rural poverty employing a consumption-based approach and identifies the determinants of rural poverty at a household level. A household survey was conducted and data were randomly collected from 194 households from four representative villages in the west Belesa district of Ethiopia. The food and non-food consumption measurement calculated by the cost of basic need approach were 2949.40 ETB (ETB is Ethiopian Birr, which is the Ethiopian currency. 1 ETB is equivalent to 0.025 US$) and 1485.78 ETB per year per Adult Equivalent (AE), respectively. The rural poverty indices (i.e. headcount index, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap) calculated based on the consumption-based poverty line were 38.1, 8.84, and 3.1%, respectively. The binary logit analysis shows that having a bigger family had a significant and positive relationship with rural poverty. Conversely, larger landholding, plowing oxen, and livestock ownership as well as a higher amount of non/off-farm income have a significant and negative relationship with the poverty status of households. The study found that rural poverty is deep and complex in the study area calling for the design of location-specific and holistic poverty reduction strategies.

     

Chronic and Transient Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in the Philippines: Evidence Using a Simple Spells Approach

This paper uses panel data and two welfare indicators, namely per capita expenditure and per capita food expenditure, to determine the frequency that the households enter poverty and food poverty in the Philippines. Unlike other studies, this paper attributes similar factors to explain transient and chronic poverty but finds that these factors are more pronounced for the chronic case. Significant factors that contribute to both chronic and transient poverty and food poverty are the household heads’ low educational level, affiliation in economically unstable and risky occupations such as those in the agriculture, fishery and resource sectors and those who are unskilled laborers, the lack of health insurance and high dependency burden. The paper also finds that that vulnerability to poverty and food poverty in the Philippines is high especially in the rural districts and areas with armed conflict. Households that experience higher earnings, new job, abundant harvest, better health or receipt of remittance/inheritance are less likely to be chronically poor. Shocks related to labor market affect both transient and chronic food poverty while natural calamities or health deterioration of any household member increase the probability of the household falling into chronic food poverty. Policy suggestions to address both types of poverty are provided.     

Family household and nuptiality changes: a search for some explanations from the recent past

Using the demographic transition framework as a basis for analysis, the author examines the levels, trends, and differentials in household size and structure in the Philippines. Time-series data on average household size from the censuses show that the changes observed over time are closely associated with or have run parallel to the shifts in mortality and fertility. Data from the 1968, 1973, and 1983 National Demographic Surveys revealed small increases in 1-person households, modest increases in small-sized and moderate-sized households, and substantial decreases in large-sized households. The data also disclosed structural shifts among various types of family households. Between 1968 and 1983, family households experienced increasing nuclearization. While expectation for support in old age has somewhat diminished recently, parents' preference to join their daughters will have the effect of increasing the opportunity of females to head households. More highly educated persons exhibited a greater tendency to head the bigger-sized, extended family household, although this has diminished somewhat lately. Increases in the age at 1st marriage of both males and females affect the life span of family households, especially nuclear households. A multivariate analysis using macrolevel data as inputs demonstrated the very strong influences of the factors of desirability of marriage, availability of mate, and urbanization on the marriage pattern. Enhancing employment opportunities and creating appropriate mechanisms through which present incomes may be increased in the hinterlands under various rural development programs may help to diminish the values attached to children. The provision of more and better facilities for higher education especially in the disadvantaged provinces will enable young people, especially females, to gain access to higher learning, thus providing alternatives to early marriage and childbearing.     

Bargaining over family size: The determinants of fertility in Brazil

Understanding how households make fertility decisions is important to implementing effective policy to slow population growth. Most empirical studies of this decision are based on household models in which men and women are assumed to act as if they have the same preferences for the number of children. However, if men and women have different preferences regarding fertility and are more likely to assert their own preferences as their bargaining power in the household increases, policies to lower fertility rates may be more effectively targeted toward one spouse or the other. In this paper, we test the relevance of the single preferences model by investigating whether men and women's nonwage incomes have the same effects on the number of children in the household. We find that while increases in both the man and woman's nonwage income lower the number of children in the household, an equivalent increase in the woman's income has a significantly stronger effect than the man's. In addition, we find that increases in women's nonwage transfer income have the strongest effects on the fertility decisions of women with low levels of education. The most important policy implication of our results is that policies aimed at increasing the incomes of the least-educated women will be the most effective in lowering fertility rates.     

Effect of development of rural commodity economy on family planning]

The paper discusses the effects of the changes of rural income level on family planning practice based a survey of 200 rural families in a affluent vegetable producing area of suburban Beijing. In 1984, 99.7% of child birth followed the local birth planning, and 99.1% of families with one child received One Child Certificates. The annual per capita income of the 200 families was 1,092 yuan (1 US$ = 3.7 yuan) in 1984 even higher than the community average. The number of children was negatively associated with the per capita income and per capita consumption except families with 4 children, most of whom have grown up. The rural mechanization in the community has greatly increased the need for skills and technology rather than strong laborers. The provision of community welfare programs and the increased living standard changed the value of children and also changed people's perception in favor of gender equality. Among families with 1 or 2 children, most preferred to have girls. And among families with more children, the preferred family size is smaller than the actual size, which shows a tendency towards favoring a small family. Among 1 child families, 58.7% considered 1 boy and 1 girl to be ideal, and 37.7% was happy with the only child. As the community becomes richer, both the community and individual families increased their investment in education. The spending on education per child was over 2 times as high in 1 child families than the families with more children. The educational status of parents is positively associated with the exception of children's future education and current spending on education. The concern of parents over children's education is an important factor in improving the quality of labor force. Women of higher education status are more acceptable to contraception and family planning policy. The relatively high level of education of the community has been conducive to it fertility decline.     

Future population growth: researchers in three countries quantify causes and propose policies

This article discusses Population Council analyses conducted by social scientists from India, Kenya, and the Philippines. These scientists agreed that population momentum would continue to increase population size, and that governments must strengthen and create a range of economic, health, and social programs and policies to slow population growth. Multiple approaches will be needed. John Bongaarts is credited with being the first to identify the key role of population momentum and to decompose growth into unwanted fertility, high desired fertility, and population momentum. Unwanted fertility is responsible for about 19% of projected population growth in India, 26% in Kenya, and 16% in the Philippines. High wanted fertility accounts for 20% of future growth in India, 6% in Kenya, and 19% in the Philippines. Population momentum can account for under 50% or over 90% of growth. Unwanted fertility can be addressed by fulfilling unmet need and increasing knowledge of methods, reducing the fear of side effects and disapproval, and eliminating poor service. Family planning programs need to be strengthened and integrated with maternal and child health services. Preferred and actual family sizes can be reduced by lowering infant mortality by means of increasing infant and child health services and girls' educational attainment. Population momentum can be addressed by delaying age at marriage and childbearing through improving social conditions. Investments in human development through education, training, and income generation can create the conditions for slowing population growth. Countries should decompose population growth into its components of unwanted and high wanted fertility and population momentum as a means of distributing resources most effectively.     

The effects of income level,income distribution,education and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 administrative regions of China

Conflicting empirical evidence on the role of income distribution on fertility rates is the impetus for this 1982 study of providence-specific Chinese Census data, excluding Tibet. The findings support the prior thesis of Repetto but utilize the micromethods and per household income measures of the competing findings of Boulier. It is cautioned that in the Chinese analysis equal income distribution depresses fertility, but China may not reflect world wide patterns. China did not have until recently a market incentive system, and there are income measurement problems. The data are per capita economic output not per capita income, and those high output areas which did not produce low fertility may actually have had households with low incomes. The importance of this research is in establishing that cross-province data are a useful tool in understanding the influence of income distribution on fertility. As with most developing countries, women's education, for instance, at least junior high education explained the largest variation of fertility differences among the 28 provinces. The urbanization variable when controlling for income was positive, unlike the other developing countries. The 1949 Chinese government's spatial industrial policy encouraged urbanization and industrialization in rural areas and family planning programs such that highly urbanized provinces have low population density. A variety of variables on income level, income distribution, education, and urbanization are discussed. OLSQ regressions were generated utilizing such independent variables as output per capita in yuan (YOUTHPC80), the square of YOUTHPC80 (YOUTHPC802), YOUTHPC80 multiplied by the average family size in each province (YOUTHPH80), and the squared value of YOUTHPH80.     

Agricultural production responsibility system and the work of family planning in the rural area]

With the establishment of the agricultural production responsibility system, the entire agricultural management and economic system has undergone great changes, and family planning in rural areas has met with many difficulties. Because of this responsibility system, households with more manpower seem to become wealthy more rapidly than others. An existing belief among the rural population is that more children will provide a larger labor force and thus more income. Birth control and family planning are therefore becoming more difficult. In order to change existing beliefs, a comprehensive ideological education for peasants is needed so that they may understand the question of birth control from the viewpoints of national interests. Economic rewards and administrative restrictions may be used as necessary birth control measures. Agricultural production and family planning can be managed well if there is close contact and cooperation between the cadres and the masses. Extra care and benefits should be given to women of childbearing age who undergo birth control operations and agree to a single child in each household. Welfare programs for the masses, such as kindergartens and nursing homes must be established in order to reduce their worries. In addition, efforts are needed to study the new situation and solve new problems. The goal of controlling the rural population growth should be achiefed through practical work and experience.