Israel's population: the challenge of pluralism

This Bulletin describes the interplay of demographic and sociopolitical processes in Israel since the founding of the state in May 1948 and projects what it might be until the year 2015. Heavy Jewish immigration, especially during the mass immigration of 1948-51, has balanced the high natural increase of Moslems, who comprise the majority of Israeli Arabs, so that the proportion of Jews in Israel's population at the end of 1982 (83% of 4.1 million) was little changed from June 1948 (81% of 806,000). Even with Jewish immigration now low, this proportion is likely to be no lower than 76% in 2015, the Jewish proportion could be only 50% in a Greater Israel as Israel annexes the Occupied Areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip where 1.2 million Arabs now live. Oriental Jews from less developed North African and Asian countries, 15% of Israel's Jewish population in 1984, with their largescale immigration to the mid-1960s and initially higher fertility, have managed to outnumber European-American Jews by 1970. This was an important factor in the 1977 shift of political dominance from the leftwing Labor parties, supported by the better educated, socialist leaning European-American Jews, to the rightwing Likud bloc, espousing economic policies based on more private initiative and Israel's historic rights to Judea and Samaria (West Bank). Western oriented Jews of European or American origin, although still the country's establishment, comprised only 40% of Israel's population by 1981. By 2015, their share is likely to be down to 30% within Israel's present boundaries and would be only 22% of the population of a Greater Israel. First raised by 19th century Zionists in Europe who set off the drive for the reestablishment of a Jewish national homeland in Palestine, the quesions of whether or not Israel will be a Jewish state and remain a Western society will continue salient into the 21st century.     

颁布、施行人口与计划生育法对人口与计划生育工作的挑战

颁布、施行人口与计生法为加强人口与计生工作提供了法律保障 ,无疑是一件大好事。但是 ,特殊的国情决定了实施人口与计生法会遇到许多困难和问题 ,对人口与计生工作的思路、方法 ,对人口与计生工作的任务、要求 ,对人口与计生工作的作风、工作效率 ,等等 ,都是一种挑战。因此 ,我们必须采取有力措施 ,积极应对这种挑战 ,切实搞好依法管理 ,依法实行计划生育     

The gay cousin: learning to accept gay rights

In 1996-97 the author interviewed 73 civic leaders in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, on their attitudes toward gay rights. Twelve respondents opposed gay rights, 40 were moderately favorable to gay rights, and 21 were strongly favorable. Almost all favored basic equality rights (education, housing, employment), and only 10 said they had difficulty with gay sexuality. Twenty-seven volunteered a concern with gay "flaunting," but this did not mean that they necessarily opposed gay rights. Respondents had the most difficulty accepting the rights of gays to marry and to adopt children, although almost all of those who opposed gay marriages agreed with the idea of a legal domestic partnership. Most agreed that children should be taught about homosexuality in schools. These 73 civic leaders reflect the rapidly changing attitudes to gay rights in Canada as a whole. Their more favorable attitudes were often a consequence of learning that someone close to them was gay or lesbian. They also responded to changes in religious teaching. Most respondents, including recent immigrants, were influenced by the dominant Canadian values of equality, respect for privacy, and respect for diversity. In general, the process these civic leaders were undergoing was one of humanizing gays, no longer thinking of them as the Other. In their view, human rights for gays did not mean mere formal equality, but rather concern and respect for gays.     

American education: the challenge of change

The American education system is being challenged to raise the academic achievement of students to prepare them for the jobs of the future. Yet many demographic, as well as economic and social factors, are making the task more difficult. Low birth rates, especially among non-Hispanic whites, along with high immigration rates, have increased the share of minority and non-English students in public schools. The rise in single-parent families has increased the number of poor students and migration from the cities to the suburbs has concentrated poor and minority students in inner city schools. These same children will make up a greater share of the future labor force. At the same time, the aging of the general population may lessen the commitment of homeowners- -whose taxes pay between 1/3 and 1/2 of education costs. The aging labor force may bring a shortage of qualified teachers, particularly in specialized subject areas. Poor and minority students generally have below average academic skills and are more likely to drop out of high school than non-minority students. However, the skills of American students rank below those of most other industrialized nations, calling into question the ability of Americans to succeed in an increasingly international economic system. How can schools be improved and minority student achievement be enhanced? Reforms of education finance systems, court-ordered integration, and stiffer requirements for teachers and for graduation from high school are among many attempts to meet the immense challenges faced by American schools.     

Population education: a challenge of the seventies

The 2 sections of this discussion of population education set forth the larger theoretical, strategic, and institutional context in which population education can reasonably be expected to take hold in American society and deals impressionalistically with the few "pioneer years" of population education--a period less than a decade long. Population education is defined as an effort to bring about a realization of the individual, family, social, and environmental effects of the explosive increase in human population, the rapid shifts in the concentration and distribution of people, the implications of changing age and other demographic patterns, and the conceivable options that may be open to humankind to cope with the consequent problems. Population education is focused primarily on students who will become the principal childbearers within 1 or 2 decades. There are 4 formidable obstacles to the universal acceptance of population education: organization of the educational system around disciplines with the result that students become increasingly specialized the further they go; the 2-fold problem of crowded curricular schedules and the difficulty in persuading educational bureaucracies to introduce new subject matter into the curriculum; the problem of getting into value questions which public school systems normally avoid; and the shortage of teachers to teach in this field. Ways to deal with these problems are suggested. During the early years of the population education effort, unresolved conflict could be identified in 3 areas: definitions; goals; and tactics. The controversy continues over whether population education should include sex education, contraceptive education, environmental education, and family life education. The debate is more heated regarding whether population education should work merely to inform students about the nature, consequences, and possible controls of population growth, or to elicit forms of behavior which the teachers consider beneficial. The tactics of population educators include massive curriculum reform, preparation of special units, and the infusion of population concepts into most existing courses in primary and secondary schools.     

We must complete the population control system to control the population peak and achieve our population goal]

Since 1986, China has experienced another baby boom which is expected to last till 1997. If no effective measure is implemented to check population growth, the population target of around 1.2 billion will not be achieved. The author proposed four population regulation mechanisms that need to be strengthened. First, ideological education needs to be used to change people's perceptions about family size, so that couples would willingly accept small families. Second, financial incentives and penalties need to be used to direct people to regulate their fertility. The incentive and penalty technique directly affect the interests of the family and is likely to produce rapid results. Third, legislation can be used to regulate reproductive behavior, the laws and legislation which restrict social behavior should be utilized for population control purposes. Once legislation on fertility regulation is passed, those who violate the law can be penalized. Furthermore, legislation gives family planning (FP) workers legitimacy in implementing the program and can help avoid disputes in the process of FP program implementation. Fourth, provision of contraception and abortion services is an important mechanism to ensure the realization of the objectives of population growth control. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of contraceptive methods and the acceptance of abortion depends on the research and development of contraceptive technology and on abortion techniques. These fertility regulatory mechanisms have not be adequately established, and their functions have not been fully utilized. The current FP program is hampered by simplistic ideological education, abusive use of incentives and penalties, lack of legislation, and unmet needs in contraceptive development. To achieve the population targets, these mechanisms need to be strengthened.     

未来五十陕西人口总量及老龄化发展趋势预测

人口总量的增加和老龄化趋势的加快,会对社会经济发展带来新的问题,产生全方位的影响。本文利用陕西省“五普”数据,采用人口推算预测法,对未来50年陕西人口总量及老龄化进程进行了预测,为陕西省科学地制定国民经济和社会发展战略与规划,统筹安排人民的物质和文化生活,实现人口与资源、环境的可持续发展提供参考。     

The migration challenge for PAYG

Immigration has been popularised in the economics literature as a tool that could be used to balance troubled PAYG pension systems. Pivotal research by Razin and Sadka shows that unskilled immigration can overcome the pension problem and, further, boost the general welfare in the host economy. However, a large strand of current economics research is engaged in identifying mechanisms through which unskilled immigration, while solving the pension problem, is causing undesired shifts in general welfare. This work shows that recurring unskilled immigration will not only reduce the general welfare but may also be challenging the pension system by reducing the pension benefits themselves. Further interpreting the actual data, it is suggested that immigration policies are designed either based on public finances only or in a political environment of gerontocracy.     

The challenge of world health

2 development specialists have expounded on the demands world health has placed on public health. Striking declines in infant and child mortality occurred with the advent of biomedical and technical interventions in developing countries after World War II. At the same time, these interventions promoted longer lives by curing and/or treating chronic diseases in developed countries. In the 1970s, however, it was apparent that the hospital based, curative approach could not meet health needs and was very costly. In developed countries, biomedical and social sciences showed that chronic diseases did not occur due to modernization but from unhealthy behaviors, diet, and lifestyle. In fact, in 1975, the US Centers for Disease Control announced that unhealthy lifestyles contributed to 50% of all deaths while the medical system was responsible for only 11%. The US and other developed countries then began to promote healthy lifestyles, and in the 1980s, considerable improvements in health occurred, especially among adults. Developing countries which depended on the Western medical model did not experience health gains in the 1970s. Yet developing countries where health systems concentrated on carrying essential services to all people and promoted basic hygiene and sound dietary practices continued to achieve considerable health gains. In 1978, WHO an UNICEF hosted the International Conference on Primary Health Care in Alma Ata, the Soviet Union to hold these developing countries with community based health systems as models of primary health care (PHC). The 1980s witnessed the spread of PHC especially in the form of child survival which focused on oral rehydration therapy and breast feeding. The biomedical and social sciences are needed to move this health policy and program strategy forward. Governments must see to policies that promote healthy people. Political will is needed to make human welfare a high priority.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

人口容量与适度人口的热力学解释

对于地球的人口容量问题,人口学者曾做过许多尝试,并提出了不同版本的人口容量阙值。本文在借鉴前人的研究成果基础上,把生物圈的能量流动分为外部能量流动和内部能量流动,并在回顾人类社会发展历程中,提出人类社会的发展源自内能流能量的增加和人类对内能流能量使用效率的提高。进而又得出了人口容量和适度人口的热力学模型,及其热力学含义。     

The characteristics of Brazilian population and the population policy of the Brazilian government]

Current population trends in Brazil are described, with attention to ethnic composition, uneven spatial distribution, rapid growth in underdeveloped regions, and rural-urban migration. Consideration is also given to the government's population policy, including the dissemination of population information, the provision of free contraceptives, and the adoption of a target of a birth rate below 20 per 1,000 during the period 1981-2000.     

Legislation and the population program

This article examines the existing laws and pending bills that pertain to the Philippine Population Program. The Presidential Decree No. 79 of 1972 authorized the nationwide promotion of all acceptable contraceptive methods and the use of clinics, pharmacies, and commercial distribution channels for the purpose. Up to the 1960s, importation of materials intended to prevent human conception was prohibited under the Philippine Tariff and Customs Code. Abortion is still classified as a crime under the Revised Penal Code; the Tariff and Customs Code prohibits the importation of articles to be used for unlawful abortion. There is a move at the Batasan to raise the minimum age for marriage. Divorce is not allowed in the Philippines, except among Muslims. Legal separation is allowed, where each spouse may live separately from the other but may not remarry while the other is still alive. The population program, in curbing population growth, hopes to somehow alleviate the poverty situation and the many problems it breeds, including child exploitation. Laws on public welfare and social security complement population efforts in the same way that child welfare laws do. Overall, it is hoped that many more moves will be taken to strengthen the family, protect and enrich the child, and give everyone a chance to develop and earn a decent living.     

Making history: the challenge of gay and lesbian studies

This paper addresses a central problem of gay and lesbian studies: how is the subject to be defined? Current essentialist and constructionist positions are ultimately ahistorical and reductionist, reflecting the residual influence of the medical model and its sexual definition. In place of a single-dimensional and a priori sexual category, the author proposes sociosexual specialization as the appropriate focus of gay and lesbian studies and outlines a heuristic, multidimensional model for describing not only contemporary, but historical and cross-cultural evidence. Six dimensions of social and sexual variation are reviewed: sexuality, subjectivity and identity, gender, social roles, economic roles, and spirituality.     

International migration: a global challenge

Trends in international migration are presented in this multiregional analysis. Seven of the world's wealthiest countries have about 33% of the world's migrant population, but under 16% of the total world population. Population growth in these countries is substantially affected by the migrant population. The migration challenge is external and internal. The external challenge is to balance the need for foreign labor and the commitment to human rights for those migrants seeking economic opportunity and political freedom. The internal challenge is to assure the social adjustment of immigrants and their children and to integrate them into society as citizens and future leaders. Why people cross national borders and how migration flows are likely to evolve over the next decades are explained. This report also presents some ways that countries can manage migration or reduce the pressures which force people to migrate. It is recommended that receiving nations control immigration by accelerating global economic growth and reducing wars and human rights violations. This report examines the impact of immigration on international trade, aid, and direct intervention policies. Although migration is one of the most important international economic issues, it is not coordinated by an international group. The European experience indicates that it is not easy to secure international cooperation on issues that affect national sovereignty. It is suggested that countries desiring control of their borders should remember that most people never cross national borders to live or work in another country, that 50% of the world's migrants move among developing countries, and that countries can shift from being emigration to immigration countries. The author suggests that sustained reductions in migration pressure are a better alternative than the "quick fixes" that may invite the very much feared mass and unpredictable movements.     

Stabilization of the population of a parasite on fruit by the population of a cleptoparasite

Summary When there exist two species such that one is a parasite on fruit and the other exploits the parasitized fruits, they must compete for a limited resource with each other. The relation betweenDacus cucurbitae andAtherigona orientalis is an example of such a situation. We raise a question whether the population of a parasite on fruit can be stabilized by the existence of the cleptoparasite of the parasite on fruit. The changes in their population densities are represented as a differential equation with time delayed parameters, which is deduced from the context of life histories of the two species. An index representing degree of overlapping of generations (g) is defined as an average oviposition period devided by the average preoviposition period, and the value is assumed to be the same in the two species. The stability of the system is classified by three parameters: the reproductive rate of the parasite on fruits (R), the survival probability of it through competition against the cleptoparasite (p), and the generation overlapping index (g). For small values ofg, e.g. less than some 0.5, the stability is determined mainly by a product ofRp: the values larger than 1 result in no equilibrium and infinite increase of both species, the values near 0 lead to large amplitude oscillations, and the intermediate values make stable equilibria or regular small oscillations. Asg takes the larger values, the stability region in the space (p, R) occupies the larger area. The model presented here is well adjusted to the fluctuating pattern of the population ofD. cucurbitae on Okinawa Is., and would also be applied to analysis of both hyperparasitisms and inquilin. This study was supported partly by Science Research Fund (No. 574092) from the Ministry of Education, Japan.     

Apples to committee consensus: the challenge of gender identity classification

The debate surrounding the inclusion of gender dysphoria/gender variant behavior (GD/GV) as a psychiatric diagnosis exposes many of the fundamental shortcomings and inconsistencies of our current diagnostic classification system. Proposals raised by the authors of this special issue, including basing diagnosis on cause rather than overt behavior, reclassifying GD/GV behavior as a physical rather than mental condition, and basing diagnosis on impairment or distress, offer some solutions but have limitations themselves given the available database. In contrast to most accepted psychiatric conditions where emphasis is placed on ultimately changing internal thoughts, feelings, and behaviors, consensus treatment for most GD/GV individuals, at least from adolescence onward, focuses on modifying the external body and external environment to maximize positive outcomes. This series of articles illustrating the diversity of opinions on when and if gender incongruence should be considered pathological reflects the relative lack of scientific indicators of disease in this area, similar to many other domains of mental functioning.