A few points concerning the population growth of China's minority nationalities

How the populations of national minorities of China should develop in the future is a major problem that bears on the wealth and power of the homeland and the prosperity and development of the various nationalities themselves. The population of minority nationalities in China totaled only 35.52 million in 1953 and grew to 55.8 million in 1978. The speed of population growth of the different nationalities in different historical periods is closely related to the Party's policy and socioeconomic factors. Attention must be paid to the gap between population growth and the development of the economy, culture, education, health, and medical care as well as to other practical problems existing among the national minorities: 1) a young age structure, 2) early marriage and early reproduction are a widespread practice, 3) economic development still remains at a low level, and 4) cultural and educational level and health and medical care undertakings fall short of actual needs. Due to the serious imbalance between population growth and economic development, the lives of national minority peoples in most regions are still poverty-stricken. Implementing family planning programs among national minorities involves problems of understanding as well as many practical issues. The population growth of national minorities is a vital issue that calls for immediate, extensive, and in-depth research.     

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the provision of social insurance benefits continued to increase monotonically. Possible palliative measures would be to change present employment practices or to upgrade the quality of the labor force through vocational training programs for older workers.     

The participation of women in the labour force of Latin America: fertility and other factors

The level of labor force participation among Latin American women, when compared with participation rates for other countries, is the lowest in the world. Only 20% or less of women 10 years of age and older are economically active. This level did not change much between 1950 and 1970. Few women work in agriculture. The following factors are considered for their effect on labor force participation of urban women: marital status, education, income, and the structure and stage of development of the society. Married women have a low participation rate. More highly educated women are more likely to work, but there must be demand for their work services. As the economy of various countries has progressed, female participation in domestic services has decreased, in industry has remained constant between 1960 and 1970, and in social services has expanded. It is concluded that work participation for married women will only increase with the following changes: 1) improved educational opportunities for women; 2) structural change and modernization in the economy; and 3) reduced family fertility. Changes in the first 2 factors are more important than reduced fertility. Since 1960, only Chile and Costa Rica have had a 25% decline in fertility rates.     

Toward a General Sociological Theory of the Economy

In the spirit of Gerhard Lenski's macro‐level analysis of stratification and societal evolution, a theory of the economy is presented. Like Lenski's work, this theory emphasizes population and power as they interact with production and distribution dynamics. Macro‐level social organization in general, and economic processes in particular, are viewed as driven by the forces of population, power, production, and distribution. For each force, a theoretical proposition is presented. Forces are all implicated in each other; the resulting set of principles provides a view of how production and distribution, as the core of an economy, are embedded in population and power processes, and vice versa. The end result is a more general macro‐level theory that captures the spirit and substance of Lenski's models of societal organization.     

Determinants of employment of recently arrived Mexican immigrant wives

The work force participation of married, Mexican-origin immigrant women who came to the US in the 1980s was investigated. Determinants of employment utilized in this study are the women's human capital stock, household resources, and labor market structural factors. Nine hypotheses were derived from the analytical model and were examined through logistic regression. Findings showed that all human capital resource and structural labor market factors were significantly related to employment. On the other hand, four of the five family household factors namely: the age and presence of children in the household, husband's income, husband's employment, and non-labor income were significantly related to employment. Furthermore, the positive factors indicating the likelihood of being employed in 1989 for Mexican immigrant wives are: 1) being 25-54 years of age; 2) higher educational levels; 3) speaking fluent English; 4) lower levels of husband's income and non-labor income; 5) employment of husband in 1989; 6) absence of children under age 6 at home; 7) lower non-Hispanic female unemployment rates; 8) higher work force proportion employed in immigrant female-dependent occupations; 9) lower proportions of the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) population being of Mexican origin; and 10) smaller MSA populations.     

Population change in Burma: a comparison of the 1973 and 1983 censuses

"A comparison of the 1973 and 1983 censuses provides ample evidence of a decline in fertility in Burma [Myanmar]. The proportion of children in the population fell substantially in the ten-year period accompanied by a significant increase in the mean age at marriage as indicated by the higher female...mean age at marriage. An analysis of the regional variations in population density indicates inter-regional movement of population. While there is marked success in the literacy programmes as indicated by the sharp reduction in the prevalence of illiteracy, especially among the females, changes in the industrial and occupational structure of the labour force suggest worsening economic conditions. Under these circumstances, it is surmised that the fall in fertility, without any concerted government policy for inducing such a decline, may be a first-level and benign response of a more literate and hence more informed population to rising aspirations and the inability of the economy to accommodate these aspirations."     

Communique of the major statistics from the first national population census as released by the State Statistical Bureau of the People's Republic of China (November 1, 1954)

China's State Statistical Bureau, working in coordination with related departments in line with the directives of the Government Administration Council of the Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China and in the light of the country's national election, carried out its first national population census. So that the census could proceed efficiently, registration offices were set up at different levels throughout the country, and a simple and viable standard procedure was devised. The processing and verification as well as the collection of the data are now totally completed. Statistics included are: 1) with 0 hour July 1, 1953, as the reference time, the total population of China is 601,938,035; 2) males account for 51.82% of the total population; 3) those people 18 years old or over account for 58.92% of the total; 4) the Han nationality accounts for 93.94% of the total; and 5) 13.26% of the population reside in cities and towns. The distribution of the national population by province are given.     

A COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON RACIAL RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION:

This article takes a first step to compare the residential segregation of blacks and Asians from whites in American and Canadian cities. The analysis is based on census data from 404 American and 41 Canadian cities. African Americans in the United States experience a higher level of residential segregation than Asians in U.S. cities. On the other hand, blacks in Canada experience the same low level of segregation as Asians. To explain the different experiences of blacks in the United States and Canada, a multivariate model is proposed and tested. The results reveal several patterns. First, African Americans are consistently obstructed much more than Asian Americans by their proportion in the city. In contrast blacks in Canada are not. Second, the residential segregation patterns of African Americans are affected strongly by the labor market and strucutral changes of the economy in the city. However, the structural change of the economy in the city has a very weak effect on the level of residential segregation of Asian Americans, black Canadians, and Asian Canadians.     

Migratory movements and their effects on family structure: the Latin American case

The main causes of population mobility in Latin America have been 1) dissolution of the traditional rural societies, 2) expansion of the agro-industrial economy, and 3) consolidation of an urban economic and cultural model. Disparities in wages and exchange rates and inequality in development between different countries have led to emigration to countries at higher levels of economic development and to the industrialized Western countries. More recently, political instability and institutionalized violence in Central America have induced population movements to other countries in the region. 6 basic types of migration in Latin America are 1) seasonal migration of small farmers to urban areas or the rural areas in other countries, 2) migration by young rural people to cities or urban areas of other countries, 3) rural-urban and international migration by the whole family group, 4) international urban-urban migration by individuals or by the whole family group, 5) migration for family reunification, and 6) return migration. The predominant type of mobility has been from the countryside to the cities. Both men and women migrate, although the proportion of migrant women is increasing and women occasionally outnumber males. Migrant women generally find less skilled jobs which are less well paid. Migrant workers frequently have access only to less skilled and poorly paid jobs or enter the informal sector of the urban economy. The impact of migration on the structure and functioning of the family unit in the sending society is determined by the number, sex, and role of the family members who migrate. Other economic and social factors such as assistance received by the migrant, the work found, the level of income, and the specific characteristics of the receiving society determine the success of the venture, the capacity to some or all of the remaining family members. Family members who stay in the sending society must adjust their behavior in ways determined by the number, sex, and age of the family members concerned and the type of economic activities by the family. For the migrating family, settlement in the receiving society requires the development of new functions and specialized domestic activities by each of its members. Survival possibilities will be largely determined by assistance networks, the reorganization of the structure and functioning of the family group, and the adoption of new organizational patterns.     

INTEREST IN WORKING WITH THE ELDERLY: A CROSS-NATIONAL STUDY OF GRADUATING SOCIAL WORK STUDENTS

The article presents a cross-national study of social work students' interest in working with the elderly, based on a sample of 679 graduating BSW students from 7 countries: Australia, Brazil, England, Germany, Hungary, Israel, and the United States. The findings among all the national cohorts show that the motivation to work with the elderly was lower than motivation to work with any other age group and, moreover, that it was equally low in most of the countries. They indicate that low motivation to work with the elderly is not limited to 1 or 2 countries but exists in various parts of the globe. The findings support the growing concern that the social work profession may not be able to meet its obligations to the aging society.     

The economic advantages of large cities: A case study of China's urban centres

This paper reviews the guidelines for China's urbanisation with respect to the national contribution in terms of economic efficiency achieved by cities of different sizes. The findings indicate that, although lower order cities (especially small towns) indisputably prove to be of great assistance to the national economy, chiefly in absorbing the enormous surplus labour force from rural areas and alleviating the ponderous pressure of population influx upon giant cities, yet under no circumstances can they generate substantial productivity growth, originating from agglomeration economies characteristic of large metropolises. The work makes extensive use of available statistics.     

Aging on the job

The older population is growing faster than the population as a whole. Paid work is the main mechanism for physical activity in humans. We, therefore, wanted to ascertain whether work practices (such as employment status and the types of tasks workers perform) follow the biological decline in physical activity that occurs with aging in humans and many other species. We recorded work practices in 3352 adults in the Ivory Coast to establish how work burdens are distributed across different age groups in a community that is minimally fettered by legal constraints. We found a decrease in the amount of work performed with increasing age, and we found that elderly persons performed more skilled, less exothermic tasks than younger workers. These data mirror global workforce distribution trends expressed by age. If the trend continues, a major portion of the population will be unlikely to contribute to the labor force in the near future, producing potentially adverse economic consequences in some populations. Although the problem might be averted or at least minimized by implementing different employment policies, biological factors could overlay and supervene any economic planning.     

Demographic and employment shifts: implications for benefits and economic security

This Issue Brief examines factors affecting the population's age distribution and composition, such as mortality rates, fertility rates, and immigration. In addition, it examines factors affecting labor force composition, such as immigration, increased labor force participation of women, and retirement trends, and discusses the potential impact of these changes on publicly financed programs: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal employee retirement systems. The discussion also highlights the implications of these population and labor force changes on employers, employees, and retirees. The elderly population--now 31.8 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population--is projected to experience tremendous growth between 2010 and 2030, when the baby boom generation reaches age 65, rising from 39.7 million, or 13.3 percent of the population, to 69.8 million, or 20.2 percent of the population. Growth in the elderly population has implications for retirement and health care systems. Population projections suggest that the traditionally pyramid-shaped work force, with a proportionately greater number of younger workers than older workers, will be replaced with a more even age distribution. Consequently, significant and continued modifications to benefit packages, such as changes in compensation structures in which earnings automatically rise with age, are likely to occur. Women's labor force participation began to accelerate in the mid-1950s, rising 75 percent among women aged 25-44 in 1991, although there is some indication that this growth may be flattening. With women comprising a greater part of the labor force, employers will be encouraged to develop and implement programs to better accommodate their needs. Increased life expectancy, a decreased percentage of entry level workers, changes in Social Security's normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and employer plans to raise the normal age of retirement or provide incentives to delay retirement, could raise the average age of retirement. However, other factors, such as poor health, other sources of retirement income, and individual preferences for retirement, could still dominate the retirement decision. The combination of increased average life expectancy guaranteeing more years of retirement to finance and rising dependency ratios increases the future cost of Social Security financing. Medicare financing is also an important policy issue because the program is projected to experience financial difficulties in the short term, resulting from explosive health care costs. In addition, Medicaid expenditures are consuming increasing amount of shrinking state budget resources--a large portion of which is used to finance nursing home care for a growing elderly population.     

The demographic and socio-economic characteristics of post-1965 immigrants to New York City: a comparative analysis by national origin

This article analyses and compares the demographic and socio‐economic characteristics of persons born abroad who immigrated to New York City after 1965 and still lived in the City in 1990. Using data from the 1990 Census, we classify persons into the twenty four largest national origin groups and compare their demographic and socio‐economic characteristics (sex, age, educational attainment, labour force participation, unemployment, occupation, income, and poverty). We pose and answer three empirical questions. The first question is: what are some of the main differences by national origin in the composition of persons immigrating to New York City after 1965? The second question is: what are some of the main differences in the location of post‐1965 immigrants in New York's socio‐economic structure? The third question is: what are some of the main differences in the economic rewards received by persons who immigrated to New York City since 1965? We find that immigrants with less than a high school education have higher labour force participation rates than the US‐born population in the same educational category and also have slightly higher earnings. Immigrants with a high school degree have labour force participation rates close to (or slightly higher than) the average for the US‐born population but their incomes are slightly lower than the average income for the US‐born population. Immigrants with a college degree have participation rates similar or slightly lower that those of the US‐born population while their earnings are significantly lower that those of US‐born college graduates.     

World and regional labour force trends and prospects

Changes in fertility during 1970-1985 will not have any effect on the composition of the world work force until 1985 because the people who will be of working age at that time have already been born. However, fertility for this period will directly influence the size of the age group 15-30 in the year 2000. Moreover, fertility trends for this period will have an indirect effect on participation of women in the labor force. The number of people in the labor force has proportionately followed total population. Just as total population is projected to increase in the single decade 1970-1980 by an amount equal to its size in 1750, so the labor force will increase by 360 million during the 1980's (its original size in 1750). By the end of the present century the world labor force may well number some 2,6000 million, reaching 3,000 million by the year 2010; 4,000 million by 2030; 5,000 million by 2070; and stabilizing at about 5,200 million by the end of the 21st century. There will be great regional variations. Increases will range from 20-35% in Europe and the U.S.S.R. to 100-120% in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. For East Asia and North America the increases may amount to 60% by the year 2000 and 100% by 2050. In 1970 less developed regions had 2/3 the world's labor force; by 2000 they will have 3/4. In 1970 about 20% of the labor force in more developed regions were working in agriculture while in less developed regions 2/3 were so engaged. In other terms, in more developed regions 10 farmers supported 108 persons while in less developed regions 10 farmers supported only 38. According to Food and Agriculture Organization projections, by 2000 only 3.5% of the labor force in developed regions and 43.5% in less developed regions will be in agriculture. Differences in gross national product between regions is striking. In 1970 the less developed regions contained 70% of world population, 67% of the world labor force, 87% of the world agricultural labor, and produced 15% of its wealth. There are also sharp contrasts in participation in the labor force. In less developed countries more youths and older persons are in the labor force while in developed countries more women work. By the year 2000 female activity rates in more developed regions will increase for ages 20-64 and decrease for those under 20 and over 64. This will raise female participation in the labor force to 35%. In less developed regions female participation is expected to decline. The proportion of young workers is expected to increase in less developed and decline in more developed regions; the same will be true for older workers. The dependency burden will be concentrated among the young in less developed nations; in more devel oped regions there will be larger numbers of older dependents.     

Employees with Long Term Illnesses or Disabilities in the UK Social Services Workforce

Between 6% and 16% of the working age population have a long term illness or disability. 'Disability' is not consistently defined, however, and neither the distribution of disabled employees nor the nature of their disabilities is well documented. This paper presents the findings of a study of statutory social services employees in the UK and for the first time provides an estimate of the proportion of workers with long term illnesses or disabilities. Over a fifth had a self-reported long term illness or disability, 8% a condition which affected daily life. The distribution and nature of these, and the effects of gender, age, occupational categories, and work experience such as job satisfaction, stress and sick leave, are examined. Changes in legislation and the profile of the working age population are likely to increase the number of people with disabilities in work. The paper concludes that at a time of difficulties with recruitment and retention, social services and other social care employers must develop a range of responses to support and retain the diversity of people with disabilities in work.     

The impact of rapid population growth,expanding urbanisation,and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya

This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.     

The Distribution of Air Lead Levels Across U.S. Counties: Implications for the Production of Racial Inequality

This work draws upon previous studies of environmental inequity to investigate the distribution of estimated air lead concentrations across 3,111 U.S. counties. Data for this research come from the U.S. Census Bureau's 1990 Census of Population and Housing: Summary Tape File 3A and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 1990 Cumulative Exposure Project . Findings from OLS and WLS regression suggest that air lead concentrations are associated with county racial composition. Counties with the largest proportion of Black youth under 16 years of age (10th decile=0.09) have nearly 7.9 percent more lead in the air than counties with no Black youth (1st decile=0.00). Counties with the largest proportion of White youth under 16 years of age (10th decile=0.25) have nearly 10.0 percent less lead in the air than counties with the smallest proportion of White youth (1st decile=0.13). These findings persist despite adjustments for urbanization, income, and housing values. This work proposes that the distribution of air lead levels has important implications for the field of sociology and the study of racial inequality.     

Demography of ageing

The world's elderly population, 60 years and older, reached 251.6 million by 1950, 488 million by 1990 and, according to United Nations projection estimates, it will reach 1205.3 million in 2025. These figures mean an increase of 144% between 1950 and 1990 and of 146% between 1990 and 2025. Asia accounted for the highest number of elderly persons: 49.2%, in 1990, Europe reported 19%, Africa 6.3%, and Latin America 6.5%. On the other hand, over the next 35 years, the European region figure will decrease to 12%, while other regions will show increased percentages: 58% for Asia and around 8% for Africa and Latin America. Fertility and mortality decreases in developing countries will result in the elderly population constituting 12% of the total population in the year 2025. In this same year, Latin America will have the same high proportion of elderly persons as the world will have in the year 2020. On the other hand, some of the developed regions, such as Northern America and Europe, will reach figures around 27%. Below the average value for these regions in the year 2025 will be the former Soviet Union with 20% and Oceania with 19.2%. Another way to confirm population aging is by computing the median age of a population. Thus, while in 1950 the world median age was 23.4 years, it increased up to 24.2 years in 1990, and is estimated to be 31.1 years by the year 2025. Developed regions show higher population aging than the less developed ones. In fact, in 1990, developed countries had a median age of 33.7 years and developing countries had a median age of 22 years. While the median age will be 40.7 years for developed countries in the year 2025, it will only be 29.7 years for less developed countries. Nevertheless, this relatively high median age indicates that the aging process has already started in less developed countries.     

石油美元对伊拉克经济的影响

20世纪70年代，随着中东产油国争取民族权益斗争的胜利，石油美元作为强有力的经济后盾开始显现。它既促进了伊拉克经济的发展，又成为引发战争的导火线、阻碍了伊经济的发展。只有合理利用石油美元，才能发挥其最大潜力。