对经过重建和调整后的我国婴儿死亡率的验证

本文根据婴儿死亡率随人均GDP的动态变化规律筛选最佳验证模型,验证了时间序列模型重新构建的1952－1980年婴儿死亡率和调整校正的1981－1990年婴儿死亡率。结果表明幂函数形式为相对较好的验证模型,拟合精度稍逊于时间序列预测模型,验证模型与时间序列模型的预测结果与历史婴儿死亡率比较,变异程度无显著差异,且预测结果与建立国家儿童死亡监测网络后的国家监测地区婴儿死亡率形成了平稳性过渡。文章认为以时间序列模型重新构建和调整校正的婴儿死亡率比较可靠,更加接近当时的实际水平。     

Trends in inequality in infant mortality in the north of England, 1921–1973, and their association with urban and social structure

Summary.  The paper analyses a time series of infant mortality rates in the north of England from 1921 to the early 1970s at a spatial scale that is more disaggregated than in previous studies of infant mortality trends in this period. The paper describes regression methods to obtain mortality gradients over socioeconomic indicators from the censuses of 1931, 1951, 1961 and 1971 and to assess whether there is any evidence for widening spatial inequalities in infant mortality outcomes against a background of an overall reduction in the infant mortality rate. Changes in the degree of inequality are also formally assessed by inequality measures such as the Gini and Theil indices, for which sampling densities are obtained and significant changes assessed. The analysis concerns a relatively infrequent outcome (especially towards the end of the period that is considered) and a high proportion of districts with small populations, so necessitating the use of appropriate methods for deriving indices of inequality and for regression modelling.     

The impact of deviations from the definition of live births on the rate of infant mortality

It is first noted that the definition of a live birth in Poland includes both weight at birth and signs of life. The author contends that the weight measure is often inaccurate, especially near the 1,000 gram limit. The result is that the infant mortality rate is underestimated. Calculations of the upper and lower limits of infant mortality for various years are presented.     

Future developments in population statistics

The author examines the development of population statistics in the USSR. The transition from past policies of secrecy to current availability of population statistics is described, and various methods of data collection and utilization are discussed. Information is included on trends in mortality, infant mortality, life expectancy at birth, and population projections to the year 2015.     

A longitudinal analysis of infant and senescent mortality using mixture models

We construct a mixture distribution including infant, exogenous and Gompertzian/non-Gompertzian senescent mortality. Using mortality data from Swedish females 1751–, we show that this outperforms models without these features, and compare its trends in cohort and period mortality over time. We find an almost complete disappearance of exogenous mortality within the last century of period mortality, with cohort mortality approaching the same limits. Both Gompertzian and non-Gompertzian senescent mortality are consistently present, with the estimated balance between them oscillating constantly. While the parameters of the latter appear to be trending over time, the parameters of the former do not.     

Seasonal variation in basic demographic phenomena (the example of Latvian SSR)

The existence of seasonal variation in demographic phenomena in the USSR is illustrated using data for Latvia. The authors provide evidence of seasonal variations in births, marriages, and infant mortality over the period 1970-1986. Changes in the pattern of seasonal variation over time are also noted.     

Appraisal of the reliability of infant mortality data

The authors evaluate the reliability of infant mortality data in the USSR. Various indirect estimation methods are assessed. The focus is on the Bourgeois-Pichat method, which they apply to available statistics for individual Union republics. They conclude that this method can be used with data sets of varying degrees of reliability.     

The analysis of seasonality in births and deaths

"Monthly data on live births and stillbirths and quarterly data on mortality and infant mortality in Poland are analyzed for the period 1983-1985. The aim is to evaluate and compare seasonal fluctuations in these variables in Katowice voivodship and in Poland as a whole. Effects of seasonal factors are estimated separately for males and females and urban-rural areas via a regression model. For births, effects of seasonality are similar in Katowice and Poland, while for deaths significant differences are observed.     

Women in the USSR

This is a selection of statistical data on women from the 1989 Soviet census. The data include total female population by republic; rural and urban female population; women's age distribution, income, labor force participation, educational status, and life expectancy; marriage and divorce; birth weight of children born to unmarried women; induced abortion; maternal mortality; and infant mortality.     

Statistical materials

Data are presented on coefficients of population reproduction, 1958-1985; infant mortality by month, 1985; and life tables, 1984-1985.     

Population growth among different nationalities in the USSR

The authors examine ethnic differences in population trends in the USSR using data from official sources, including the censuses from 1959 to 1989. They look at differentials in fertility, general mortality, and infant mortality and their causes. They also note that, out of the 18 major nationalities, 5 have reproduction rates below replacement level: Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Lithuanians, and Jews. Data are included on population size, growth rates, and fertility rates by ethnic group.     

Mapping disease and mortality rates using empirical Bayes estimators

"Methods for estimating regional mortality and disease rates, with a view to mapping disease, are discussed. A new empirical Bayes estimator, with parameters simply estimated by moments, is proposed and compared with iterative alternatives suggested by Clayton and Kaldor." The author develops a local shrinkage estimator in which a crude disease rate is shrunk toward a local, neighborhood rate. The estimators are compared using simulations and an empirical example based on infant mortality data for Auckland, New Zealand.     

Statistical materials. Part 3: life expectancy,infant mortality,and age-specific death rates

Official data are presented in this one-page item on average life expectancy by sex in the USSR from 1926-1927 to 1985; infant mortality by sex, 1970-1985; and age-specific death rates, 1969-1970 to 1984-1985.     

Statistical materials

This is a summary of demographic statistics for the USSR and its constituent republics for the period 1959-1991. Tables include data on population size; rural and urban population; average annual population growth; population by age group; fertility; life expectancy at birth and at selected ages; infant mortality by cause of death, 1989; and mortality of the active population by cause of death, 1989.     

The population of the USSR

Official population data for the USSR for 1986 and 1987 are presented. Tables are included on age and sex distribution; rural and urban population; birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1970-1986; fertility and mortality by sex, 1970-1986; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban area and Union republic; age-specific death rates, 1970-1986; infant mortality, 1970-1986; life expectancy, 1926-1986; life tables; marriage and age at marriage; and divorce.     

Estimation of infant mortality rates categorized by social class for an Australian population

"This paper reports a method of deriving simultaneous confidence intervals for [Australian] infant mortality rates based on a birth sample rather than the birth population. The large sample size employed enables the use of asymptotic multivariate techniques....[The authors find that] where the population distribution of a characteristic such as social class is not known, confidence intervals can be estimated for rates based on the distribution of this characteristic in a sample of that population."     

The demographic situation in European countries

Demographic trends in European countries are summarized for the period 1960 to 1980 using data taken primarily from published sources, including those of the Council of Europe and the United Nations. Information is included on age composition, natural increase, births, infant mortality, marriages and divorces, and population projections to the year 2000. The data are presented separately for Socialist and capitalist countries.     

Women in the nation

A selection of statistical data on women in the former Soviet Union is presented for the years 1979, 1989, 1990, and 1991. The data concern number of women by republic and by age group; marriage, divorce, and birth rates; number of household members and singles; infant mortality; abortion and natality; life expectancy; single mothers; education; and employment.     

Women and children in the USSR

Selected official data concerning women and children in the USSR are presented. Data are included on percentage of women in the urban and rural population by republic, women in the labor force, female educational status and occupations, marital status, mothers with children, life expectancy, health care, birth rate, infant mortality, child care, and education.     

Modeling of rates over a hierarchical health administrative structure

Identifying the distribution of the incidence rate of a disease over a region is a prediction problem where area‐specific random effects are to be estimated. The authors consider the inclusion of such effects at different levels of a hierarchical health administrative structure. They develop inference procedures for this type of multi‐level model and show that the predicted rates are approximately weighted sums of the crude rates obtained by pooling data on each level of the hierarchy. Their techniques are illustrated using infant mortality data from British Columbia.