What is natural fertility? The remodeling of a concept

This paper applies three log-linear models to Louis Henry's original 1961 natural fertility data in order to test various assumptions leading to ways of obtaining a standard natural fertility schedule through explicit modeling. "The models specify that births follow an independent Poisson distribution for each age interval of each population. All parameters are estimated through an iterative maximum-likelihood procedure." The author suggests that the model selected provides better estimates of the standard natural fertility function than previous models.     

What is No-Scalpel Vasectomy?

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Is low fertility a twenty-first-century demographic crisis?

Nearly half of the world's population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement, are widespread. But there are both persistent rationales for having children and institutional adjustments that can make the widespread intentions for two children attainable, even in increasingly individualistic and egalitarian societies.     

“Susie Bubble is a Sign of The Times”

This essay takes as its point of critical departure the digital stardom of Susanna Lau, aka Susie Bubble, the most recognizable and respected fashion blogger in the world, in order to consider the historical formation of success in the postmillennial digital economy. By examining Lau as an embodied sign rather than an exceptional figure of success, I am concerned with the technical, cultural, and economic forces that give shape to hegemonic notions of success and the ideal subject it produces. More specifically, I hope to demonstrate the cultural frames that structure our ways of seeing and recognizing successful individuals in the post millennium by highlighting the gendered and racial construction of the ideal Web 2.0 subject. The aim of my discussion is to show that the discursive construction of Lau's success is reflective of emerging global patterns born out of the rising significance of Asians and young women (especially young Asian women) as consumers and producers in the digital economy.     

Sex preference and fertility: what is the link?

It is argued that investment in programs for changing attitudes toward sex preference may not have the greatest impact on reducing fertility or increasing fertility control. Arnold's new method of analysis of determining sex preference was applied to data from a 1977 Egyptian survey of 36,000 rural households in Menoufia Governorate. Findings indicated that couples increased their use of modern contraceptives in direct proportion to an increase in the number of sons. Arnold determined that a large majority of all couples would have at least one boy early in their childbearing years. Thus sex preference would not have a large effect on fertility. Arnold's analysis among 27 countries found that without any sex preference, contraceptive usage would increase by an average of less than 3.7 percentage points. Arnold found that sex preference was strongest in Asia, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan that already have reduced fertility levels. In Africa, where fertility is high, the total elimination of sex preference would have only a 2.9 percentage point difference in contraceptive use. Sex preference had small effects on the percent of women who practice contraception, the percent who desire no more children, and the average number of additional children wanted. For example, in Bangladesh having no sex preference would show a percentage difference of 1.6 percentage points for contraceptive use, 4.7 percentage points difference for women desiring no more children, and -0.1 percentage point difference for the average number of additional children wanted. The effect of having no sex preference was strongest in India compared with Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, Ghana, Kenya, Costa Rica, Haiti, Paraguay, and Peru. The effect of no sex preference in India would have the respective percentage point effect of 3.7, 8.9, and -0.2. Public policy should be directed to information, education, and communication with other social goals.     

Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: Southern Sweden, 1766–1864

In this article, we analyze fertility control in a rural population characterized by natural fertility, using survival analysis on a longitudinal data set at the individual level combined with food prices. Landless and semilandless families responded strongly to short-term economic stress stemming from changes in prices. The fertility response, both to moderate and large changes in food prices, was the strongest within six months after prices changed in the fall, which means that the response was deliberate. People foresaw bad times and planned their fertility accordingly. The result highlights the importance of deliberate control of the timing of childbirth before the fertility transition, not in order to achieve a certain family size but, as in this case, to reduce the negative impacts of short-term economic stress.     

The Institutional vs. the Academic Definition of the Quality of Work Life. What is the Focus of the European Commission?

In recent years, we have seen how the quality of work life has been focused and defined by the European Commission (EC). In our study we compare the EC definition with the academic one and try to see how close they are. We also analyse the possibility of applying the institutional definition to the Spanish case through the development of specific indicators. Our main conclusions are that QWL is increasingly important for policy makers. In addition, it is essential to have objective indicators and to conduct surveys in order to reliably measure QWL.     

If GDP is Not the Answer,What is the Question? The Juncture of Capabilities,Institutions and Measurement in the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report

This review essay offers an institutional critique of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Report. The notion of human capabilities and functionings advocated by the Report demonstrates an inspirational perspective to monitor human progress in quality of life (QoL). Several measurements the Report suggested remain inadequate. The personal diary techniques have some potential as it possesses strength in recording hedonic activities, but it is relatively weak in revealing eudaimonic experiences. The Report unfortunately mixes up outcome indicators of QoL at individual level and the higher-ordered, social institutions in mapping out causal processes of human wellbeing. Future researchers can contribute by concentrating on clarifying the plausible linkage between institutions and individual wellbeing in broad sense. There is much knowledge to be gained by researchers who ask questions of “how we can change” rather than answer to “what we can measure”     

Measures of Disadvantage: is Car Ownership a Good Indicator?

A need to better understand the multidimensional nature of disadvantage is leading to the adoption of a wider range of measurement variables. One variable now commonly adopted is zero car ownership. This paper challenges the logic of including ‘not having a car’ as an indicator of disadvantage. It argues that this can distort the real picture of disadvantage. It presents evidence to show that zero car ownership can be a positive feature of low income households and that conversely high car ownership can put significant financial stress on households with low income.     

What makes a stopping rule sexist?

"Parents' decisions to have children are modeled by a simple stopping rule that describes the probability of having another child as a function of the number of boys and girls already born to the parents. Because the stopping rule depends on the sex of the offspring, the rule may introduce a correlation between sex of offspring and the number of siblings the offspring has. When this is coupled with a correlation between number of siblings and well-being, a correlation between sex and well-being may emerge despite equal treatment of the two sexes within each family. The author provides sufficient conditions on a stopping rule for it to be sexist in the sense that the average well-being of one sex is higher than that of the other sex." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child

With 2.59 children per woman in 2008, Mongolia appears today as an exception in East Asia where fertility rates are far below the replacement level. Moreover, from its historical nadir of 1.95 children per women in 2005, fertility is on the rise. This paper first presents recent fertility development in Mongolia. Second, based on the experiences of European and East Asian countries, factors contributing to the development of low fertility are discussed in reference to the Mongolian context. Most of these factors are indeed found in Mongolia and could probably contribute to reducing fertility in the future. However, the country also presents cultural-family practices and recently-adopted fertility-family incentives which may support and stabilize fertility rates. These recent fertility-incentives factors and policies adopted by the Government of Mongolia are discussed in the final part from the perspective of equity, efficiency, and efficacy proposed by McDonald (2006b, “An assessment of policies that support having children from the perspectives of equity, efficiency and efficacy”, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006, Special issue on ‘Postponement of childbearing on Europe’, 213–234). The aim is to determine if these measures are efficient to counterbalance and cancel out the depressing fertility effects.     

The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response—such as ‘don’t know’ or ‘it’s up to God’—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s ‘calculus of conscious choice’. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19?years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women’s likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.     

Happy by What Standard? The Role of Interpersonal and Intrapersonal Comparisons in Ratings of Happiness

The present research suggests that many of the most commonly-used indicators of happiness are constructed in a manner that renders them susceptible to null or misleading findings. While few happiness indicators specify particular comparison standards, we demonstrate that people tend to evaluate their happiness relative to comparison standards and give reliably different happiness ratings based on the comparison standards they spontaneously adopt. In Study 1, participants reported that intrapersonal comparisons were a more important consideration than interpersonal comparisons in determining their happiness ratings. In Study 2, participants using a free-response format more frequently reported making intrapersonal comparisons than interpersonal comparisons when rating happiness. In both Studies 1 and 2, participants who reported using interpersonal comparisons gave higher happiness ratings than those who reported using intrapersonal comparisons. In Study 3, participants who were prompted to make interpersonal comparisons gave higher happiness ratings than those prompted to make intrapersonal comparisons. We discuss the implications of these findings for measuring subjective well-being and interpreting happiness research.

Is Work a Burden? The Role of the Living Standard

Social Indicators Research - Many mainstream schools of economics argue that work is a burden, while nonmainstream schools argue that this might not be entirely true. This paper aims to reconcile...     

The adoption of fertility control on Mykonos, 1879-1959: stopping, spacing or both?

This abstract examines the timing and means of the fertility transition on the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1879 to 1959. By combining the results of family reconstitution with oral evidence, an unusual insight into the pathways of the fertility transition of this island population is offered. The paper concludes by outlining a model of the adoption of fertility control, a model which sees the transition from high to low fertility as a transition from spacing to stopping, and from innovation of methods to innovation of ideas.     

Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for "inital" fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration / vector error correction modelling approach

This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline. Received: 7 April 1995/Accepted: 15 May 1998     

What do you say to a lifer?

Right-to-life groups are highly organized, sophisticated, well financed, and have the will to make abortion the sole issue in many future elections. They have an advantage in emotional appeal and numbers of active supporters in the conflict with prochoice groups. Most Americans believe abortion is a private matter between a woman and her doctor, but few base their entire moral code on the belief as the right-to-lifers do. Examples of possible responses to lifer rhetoric are given.     

What is Inclusive Development? Introducing the Multidimensional Inclusiveness Index

Social Indicators Research - Despite decreasing global poverty, feelings of increasing inequalities drive growing dissatisfaction with development outcomes. Inclusive development benefiting larger...