Birth limitation, late marriage and decline in the natural increase rate of the population]

Birth limitation and late marriage are two major factors which contribute to the reduction of population growth rate. These two factors should be used as the fundamental method for effectively controlling China's population growth. Facts have proved that birth limitation and late marriage are complimentary to each other and should match each other closely. Since late marriage cannot be delayed indefinitely, the average fertility rate for females under the age of 25 in their first marriage may still reach 5-6 children, provided that birth control measures are not taken. Because of this situation, at the same time that late marriage is encouraged, birth control should also be promoted positively. All married couples should be advised to have only one child. In order to ensure the everlasting practice of these two methods, certain policies concerning family planning and birth control should be formulated according to China's current economic situation. These policies include enforcement of an ideological education and social insurance practice in order to solve the problem of the high population growth rate in the countryside and effectively reach the goal of controlling China's population growth.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

The TFR and birth control]

Total fertility rate if (TFR) is a simple an straight forward measure of women's fertility. However, it is difficult to use the TFR as a target measure in FP programs. If TFR level is set as a target for a particular year, how can women's fertility be regulated to achieve this target? The following analysis suggests a simple model to control the proportion of birth parity. First, the TFR is decomposed into a parity- specific TFR. The parity-specific TFR can be worked out using coefficients of the regression models calculated from data of previous fertility surveys. Once the TFR is given, the parity-specific total fertility can be calculated using a model with coefficients from empirical data. Then the number of births of each parity may be calculated from the parity-specific TFR using the female age structure in a particular year, the survival probability, and the standard fertility model for each parity. When the number of surviving children of each women at child-bearing age is known, the desired proportion of births of each parity can be calculated using the standard birth probability during a years. From these models, it would be possible to calculate how many women can have their first child/year, and how many can have the second. Thus, family planning organizations would be in a position to formulate a birth quota on the basis of the above information.     

World fertility and the women's situation]

In 1981, total number of childbearing women in the world reached 9.8 hundred million. Their socioeconomic status and fertility level are very important data for the study of women's liberation and population control. Facing limited natural resources and a constant growing demand, many nations are studying how to control the population growth and achieve a "zero population growth." In nations with a high GNP, such as Switzerland, West Germany, and France, fertility is low. On the contrary, countries in central and south Asia and most parts of Africa are the poorest economically, and their fertility rate has remained very high. Another factor which is related to the fertility level is the degree of women's participation in the labor market. In Europe and North America, the percentage of women's participation in economic activities is high, and fertility is low. In Latin America and Africa, fertility is high, and the percentage of women's participation in economic labor is low. From the above, we may conclude that promotion of women's participation in the labor market and better employment conditions will reduce fertility. Another 2 factors related to fertility are marriage age and birth control rate. Late marriage and the extensive use of birth control measures are effective methods for reducing fertility. All the above mentioned factors are closely related to the woman's educational background. If women receive a better education and find better employment opportunities, delay their marriage age, and take birth control measures, fertility will be reduced and the population growth will be under control.     

广东妇女生育水平的变化及影响因素分析

根据第五次人口曾查资料,本文详细描述了广东妇女生育水平的现状。并从实际出发,对影响广东省生育水平和生育机制的农村生育模式,生育孩次构成,文化水平和职业构成等四个重要因素进行分析。最后,就稳定广东省低生育水平,提高人口科学管理等问题提出三点建议。     

An analysis of the fertility of Chinese women]

The 1982 census provided detailed information on fertility in China. It recorded 20,689,704 births in 1981, producing a birth rate of 2.1%, a decrease, respectively, of 43% and more than 50% in comparison with 1952 and 1963. The birth rate has varied widely over the last 30 years, from 3.6% in the early 1950's, to 1.8% in 1961, after a planned birth program was begun, to a record high of 3.7% in 1962 following the economic recovery, to 3.3% in 1970, after a gradual decline through the 1960's. By 1981 the birth rate had declined to 2.1%, clearly resulting from the intense planned fertility promotion begun in the early 1970's. In the mid- and late 50's, urban birth rate was consistently higher than rural, with the mass move to the cities at the beginning of the People's Republic. General economic development after 1957 brought simultaneous declines of both urban and rural rates, both reaching a low point in 1961. Age structure of the population also has an influence, depending on the proportion of childbearing women in the population. In 1981, the fertility of China's childbearing women was 8.3%, lower than that of the developing countries, but higher than the developed countries. By age group, the fertility rates reached 14.7% and 23.9% respectively in women between 20-24 and 25-29 years of age; the legal marriage age is 20. The fertility rate in large cities is generally lower than that of provinces. Higher educational and socio-economic level also exert an inverse influence on fertility rates; in low socio-economic areas the rate reached 3.5%, and in more advanced areas it was held to 2.2%. In all professions with the exception of agriculture, fishing, and forestry, the percentage of families with 1 child was 81.8%. Since planned fertility was implemented, the overall fertility rate has dropped from 3% to 2%. China's fertility mode has changed to that of developed countries, with high intensity between 20 and 29 years of age. Appropriate measures should be taken to lower the fertility rate in different regions.     

农村妇女生育意愿影响因素分析

低生育水平不代表我国农村社会生育意愿已经完成了从传统型向现代型的转变,因为生育意愿的变化受到社会和家庭多种因素的影响。借助莱宾斯坦孩子"成本-效用"理论,通过农村妇女边际孩子的选择对农村妇女生育意愿的影响因素进行分析。结果发现,性别偏好、孩子的经济成本以及抵御家庭风险、扩大家庭规模的效用在影响妇女生育意愿中起着较为明显的作用。了解农村妇女生育意愿影响因素,对建设先进生育文化有重要意义。     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

A model of the age patterns of births by parity in natural fertility populations

This research develops a convolution model to express the age patterns of fertility at each birth order in natural fertility populations in terms of six parameters, directly representing the proximate determinants of fertility, and a series of parity level indicators. The parity level indicators at each birth order are simply the proportions of women in a cohort who will eventually have births at each birth order it the age‐related fecundity decline is controlled. The Coale‐McNeil nuptiality model is adopted to represent the age pattern of first marriage rates and the natural fertility schedule employed in the Coale‐Trussell fertility model is incorporated to adjust age effects. The fast Fourier transform is used in solving the model numerically. It proves that the model is able to provide excellent fits to fertility for rural Chinese women in the 1950s.     

2011:中国人口学研究的回顾与评述

通过检索与回顾2011年刊发在国内主要人口学刊物上较有代表性的文章以及人口学相关著作或科研文集,从中国人口国情、人口与社会、流动人口、人口老龄化、生育、人口与经济、其他领域等学界关注的领域系统性地评述2011年中国人口学研究的现状与进展。总体来看,2011年学界加强了对中国人口发展总体形势的判断,更多地关注人口与社会管理、人口与公共政策、人口与教育等与社会现实息息相关的领域。此外,对流动人口、人口老龄化、生育、人口与经济等以往人口学传统主题也进行了更为深刻和细致的研究。     

Implications of economic reform and spatial mobility for fertility in Vietnam

Vietnam has registered a dramatic decline in fertility during the last decades. While the causes of such a sustained decline are still not well documented, many observers believe that government policies adopted in the 1980s have contributed to lower fertility. This article focuses on the implications of the Doi Moi program of market reforms on fertility, taking into account the influences of migration and population policy. The analysis is based on a sequential logit model of birth histories of ever married women interviewed in Vietnam in 1997. The results show a substantial decline in fertility since the Doi Moi program was introduced. The disruptive effects of migration are less pronounced, although migrants generally exhibit lower childbearingrates, and a somewhat different pattern of parity progression. We argue that the economic reforms of 1986, and the two-child policy initiated two years later, have reinforcedVietnamese women's desire for smaller families.     

The method of measuring probability of the annual fertility]

At the present time, under the guidance of national planning, population control is the most important theme of China's population policy. In order to realize the national goal of controlling population growth, family planning should be worked out at local levels. How to achieve a reasonable population planning norm at a local level is a very crucial problem in family planning work. Up to the present time, various methods have been used to measure the probability of the annual fertility. In his report, the author provides a new formula to calculate the probability of the annual fertility. Based upon this formula, we may calculate the number of planned birth for a certain year and its fertility. From the figure we may set a reasonable goal according to population policy and actual population components. This formula is suitable for use in annual planning, as well as short-term or long-term population planning.     

中国妇女生育水平变动考证和未来人口发展的策略选择

1990年以来各类人口调查和相关学者的研究结果显示,目前的低生育水平的实现有外在政策强力的作用,更有中国社会经济发展内生化的作用;真实的生育水平既不是调查包括人口普查所显示的那样低(低于1.5),也不是有关部门和政府所想象的那样高。调查显示农村居民平均生育意愿不会高于2个孩子,这是生育率持续稳定的根本。众所周知,为了保证人口稳定持续的发展,应使妇女生育率保持更替水平或至少接近更替水平。从人口发展规律和人口发展与社会经济发展相适应的规律出发,结合当前我国居民生育意愿和生育水平走低的实际,我们应该抓住生育政策调整的最佳时期,调整应该在最佳时期即未来5-10年内完成。     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

Characteristics of fertility transition in China]

Since 1949 and in particular the 1970s, China's fertility rate has undergone rapid and continuous change. This is a direct reflection of China's success in population control. The decline in China's fertility rate regulated the speed of population growth, altered the population structure, and brought population development to be in line with economic development. Data used in this article are from the National 1/1000 Random Sample of Fertility (1982), the 10% Sample of the 1982 Population Census, 1981, 1983 and 1984 statistical yearbooks, and other data from the Statistics Bureau. China's fertility rate dropped an annual average of 2.5/1000 from 1950-81. However, this time, the fertility rate fluctuated, depending on political, social and economic factors. As the nation prospered, the fertility rate remained stable and high; as China suffered severe economic losses, the fertility rate dropped. A steady decline was evident beginning in 1970 as the government began to propagandize the merits of smaller families. Between 1971-83 the average yearly rate of growth was 1.6%. The number of years a woman was fertile was similar for both urban and rural women in 1964 and 1981; moreover, in 1981 both groups showed a sharp drop in fertility between the ages of 27-35. The 1 child rate for urban women rose from 21.9% in 1964 to 86.6% in 1981. Urban women tend to be more receptive to late marriage, late births, and fewer children. This change in the 1 child rate contributed to the drop in the birth rate of 31.1/1000 in 1964 to 20.9/1000 in 1981.     

俄罗斯人口发展状况及对中国的启示

本文利用俄罗斯的历史人口数据,对俄罗斯人口数量和结构变动状况进行了分析,并对俄罗斯三次人口转型中的社会经济情况变化对人口变动状况的影响进行了分析。结果表明,俄罗斯的人口出生率下降很快,人口死亡率升高,总和生育率已远低于替代水平,因此人口自然增长率迅速下降,总人口数长期处于下降通道,出生预期寿命不增反降,特别是男性出生预期寿命远低于女性出生预期寿命。在推动人口增长的社会经济相关措施实施后,俄罗斯人口数量仍不能增加,这对目前总和生育率已经很低的中国有一定的借鉴意义。     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

An evaluation of the recent fertility changes in Afghanistan: a parity-specific analysis

Very limited studies exist on the demography of Afghanistan. Using the only national survey with complete birth history data, the 2010 Afghanistan Mortality Survey, this paper describes the recent fertility changes in the country from a parity-specific perspective. From 1995 to 2009, parity progression ratios, average birth intervals, sex ratio at birth by parity and synthetic lifetime average parity are successively examined. Results show that the progression to higher-order births started to decline in the early 2000s and was accompanied by childbearing postponement. The consistency of the parity analysis is assessed by looking at the sex ratio at birth by parity and comparing the synthetic lifetime average parity to fertility estimates computed from other datasets and/or estimation methods. While the sex ratio at birth indicates strong distortion, casting doubt on the ultimate fertility level, the consistency of the parity-based fertility estimates with other fertility estimates corroborates the fact that misreporting the sex of the child is mainly causing the imbalanced sex ratio at birth and is not significantly affecting the level of fertility. The SPPRs-based analysis provides solid evidence that Afghanistan is in the early stage of its fertility transition.     

生育文明与我国未来生育率控制

我国的生育率变化一直以来都与生育文明的发展有着密切的关系。深厚的传统生育文化支持着我国农业社会的高生育水平,这在历史上起到过一定的积极作用,但是庞大的人口数量越来越成为我国经济社会发展的包袱。我国现阶段生育率已经在计划生育政策的控制下,达到了一个较低的标准。但是,这种低生育水平还很不稳定,也不可避免的带来了一些社会问题。随着我国经济发展和社会转型,推进生育文明的发展将成为稳定低生育水平,实现适度人口规模的最好方法。     

A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]

A general review of papers and discussions at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development held December 10-14, 1984 is presented. Discussions on population and development included China's population change 1949-1982, impacts of economic change on Tianjin's population, the population factor in economic development policy-making, Japanese population and development, recent population development in Hungary, population and economy, comprehensive long-term population development in Russia, fertility rate change factors in China, Shanghai's population change, and population and economic development in Mian County, Shaanxi Province. Fertility rate changes were discussed, including multinational borderline value assumptions, recent trends in life span fertility rate in China, fertility rate in Jiangsu Province, fertility rate change in Zhejiang Province, and sterilization in Yangjiaping, Thailand. Population and employment discussions included the economic impact of world population change, the 1984 International Population Conference, changes in economically productive population and employment strategy, employed/unemployed populations in Guangdong Province, and the economic composition of China's population. Urbanization discussions covered population and development methodological problems, population growth and economic development in the Pacific region, surplus rural population transfer and economic development in China, urbanization analysis, trends and urban population distribution problems, and Laioning Province population development. Issues in migration, population distribution, and regional population included migration and development of the Great Northwest, internal migration to Beijing, Chinese population growth and economic development by major region, and current population changes of Chinese Tibetans. Under social problems of population, discussions included women's status, development and population change, Shanghai's aging trend, analysis of the aged population, analysis of educational quality in Anhui Province, and the retirement system in Chinese villages.