A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

Adolescent fertility programs: responding to the needs of today's youth

The 1983 conference on Adolescent Fertility Management in Asia and the Pacific provided a forum for sharing information and experiences. The project was designed to stimulate interest in and strengthen existing programs on adolescent fertility in participating countries, i.e., Bangladesh, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Philippines, Sri lanka, and Thailand. Specifically, the conference sought to identify adolescent fertility problems and share experiences in managing adolescent fertility programs, identify gaps in the development and implementation of adolescent fertility programs and projects, and formulate plans to meet the adolescent fertility needs of the participating countries. Capsule presentations of the experiences of the participating countries are presented. Focus is on the projects they have undertaken and proposed activities. In Bangladesh Jatio Tarum Sangha, the national youth organization, seeks to get youth involved in family planning activities through information/education/motivation programs and community development projects. Fiji proposes to establish a youth center to be operated by the Ministry of Health to reduce the incidence of unplanned pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases in adolescents and to make them more aware of sex-related health problems and the importance of responsible sex. India's Family Planning Association has initiated population education programs for youth. Several projects have been launched in Jakarta to cope with adolescent fertility problems including the adolescent health project, the Consultation Center for Adolescents, and the university-based family health project. The Family Planning Association of Nepal has completed some major programs under its youth project. The Philippines' proposed youth centers are planned to respond to the fertility related needs and problems of Filipino adolescents. Innovations of the center are: the operation of several youth-serving government and private agencies under 1 roof, and encouragement of youth participation in designing and running the center. Sri Lanka does not have much of an adolescent fertility problem. Virtually all fertility is said to occur within marriage. A study on adolescent fertility is planned. Thailand has launched several government and nongovernment programs to reach adolescents both in and out of school. Government programs include counseling services and the National Family Planning Communication for Premarriage adolescents. Key issues are identified and recommendations are made.     

Age at marriage is rising for Asian women and men,according to new data

The social transformations in Asia are described: delayed age at marriage and the proportions marrying. Policy implications are ascertained. The norm for female age at marriage has risen from 15 years to 17-18 years in south Asia, and from 18 years to 24 years and older in east Asia. Men's marriage age has also risen but not as much. Concurrent changes have occurred with fertility declines and small family sizes and lower population growth, with changing roles for women, and with emergent youth subcultures and increased prevalence of premarital sexual behavior. The number of singles is rising and expected to continue to rise. Examples are given of marriage age changes for Nepal and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, South Korea, and regional totals. Southeast Asian countries experienced less dramatic changes, and changes primarily in the 20-24 year old group (from 30% to 74% of single women). Change for men has been less regular and with less magnitude. In Southeast Asia, the rise in marriage age for men has risen only 1-2 years compared with women. East Asia patterns vary by country, i.e., South Korean increases of 6 years, Taiwanese increases of 4 years, and 2 years in Japan. Single males have been common in South and Southeast Asia, while in East Asia married male teens 25 years are rare. Marriage timing for men is not as closely associated as for women with social and cultural change. Downturns for men follow momentous, temporary disruptions such as happen during wars and periods of migration, while women's patterns are more reflective of structural change. The trend for never marrying is on the increase, particularly for men in Japan (1.1% in the 1920s to 18% in the early 1980s for men 50 years). Women not ever marrying are increasing in Thailand, Bangladesh, and Hong Kong. Never marrying is common in urban or educated populations, i.e., Singapore, Thailand, and Philippines. The implications are a longer gap between successive generations and a shorter period of exposure to risk of conception. Research findings have shown that a 1 year delay in age at 1st marriage reduces fertility by 20% of a child. Schooling delays marriage age as well as marriage laws, but structural and economic changes may be more important than policy changes. Policies affect the status of women and opportunities.     

中国大陆婚姻状况变迁及婚姻挤压问题分析

本文以2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据为基础,通过城乡之间的比较,借助对婚姻挤压以及中国大龄未婚人口现象的系统描述来揭示其存在的特征和后果。婚姻挤压和大龄未婚现象既与个人因素有关,同样受到社会结构变迁的影响,不仅在性别上有所差异,城乡之间也存在较大差别,农村未婚女青年的比例较低,最多的大龄未婚女青年集中在城市。而婚姻迁移和社会对于男女两性的期望不同将会对新的婚姻挤压问题造成进一步的冲击。     

Adolescent fertility: worldwide concerns

There is growing concern over the adverse health, social, economic, and demographic effects of adolescent fertility. Morbidity and mortality rates ar significantly higher for teenage mothers and their infants, and early initiation of childbearing generally means truncated education, lower future family income, and larger completed family size. Adolescent fertility rates, which largely reflect marriage patterns, range from 4/1000 in Mauritania; in sub-Saharan Africa, virtually all rates are over 100. In most countries, adolescent fertility rates are declining due to rising age at marriage, increased educational and economic opportunities for young women, changes in social customs, increased use of contraception, and access to abortion. However, even if fertility rates were to decline dramatically among adolescent women in developing countries, their sheer numbers imply that their fertility will have a major impact on world population growth in the years ahead. The number of women in the world ages 15-19 years is expected to increase from 245 million in 1985 to over 320 million in the years 2020; 82% of these women live in developing countries. As a result of more and earlier premarital sexual activity, fostered by the lengthening gap between puberty and marriage, diminished parental and social controls, and increasing peer and media pressure to be sexually active, abortion and out-of-wedlock childbearing are increasing among teenagers in many developed and rapidly urbanizing developing countries. Laws and policies regarding sex education in the schools and access to family planning services by adolescents can either inhibit or support efforts to reduce adolescent fertility. Since contraceptive use is often sporadic and ineffective among adolescents, family planning services are crucial. Such programs should aim to reduce adolescents' dependence on abortion through preventive measures and increase awareness of the benefits of delayed sexual activity. Similarly, sex education should seek to provide a basis for intelligent, informed decision making. Programs tailored to reach teenagers in schools, recreational centers, and the workplace have particular potential.     

Future population growth: researchers in three countries quantify causes and propose policies

This article discusses Population Council analyses conducted by social scientists from India, Kenya, and the Philippines. These scientists agreed that population momentum would continue to increase population size, and that governments must strengthen and create a range of economic, health, and social programs and policies to slow population growth. Multiple approaches will be needed. John Bongaarts is credited with being the first to identify the key role of population momentum and to decompose growth into unwanted fertility, high desired fertility, and population momentum. Unwanted fertility is responsible for about 19% of projected population growth in India, 26% in Kenya, and 16% in the Philippines. High wanted fertility accounts for 20% of future growth in India, 6% in Kenya, and 19% in the Philippines. Population momentum can account for under 50% or over 90% of growth. Unwanted fertility can be addressed by fulfilling unmet need and increasing knowledge of methods, reducing the fear of side effects and disapproval, and eliminating poor service. Family planning programs need to be strengthened and integrated with maternal and child health services. Preferred and actual family sizes can be reduced by lowering infant mortality by means of increasing infant and child health services and girls' educational attainment. Population momentum can be addressed by delaying age at marriage and childbearing through improving social conditions. Investments in human development through education, training, and income generation can create the conditions for slowing population growth. Countries should decompose population growth into its components of unwanted and high wanted fertility and population momentum as a means of distributing resources most effectively.     

Coping with adolescent fertility

In the Philippines, despite the conservative values of the population, factors brought about by increasing modernization encurage the youth to practice sex, although actual sexual behavior lags behinds attitudes. This is particlarly the case in Metropolitan Manila, the country's most urbanized region. In 1982, 4 of 10 live births were to women aged 15-24. There also are reports that births out of wedlock have increased in the past few years, with the biggest number of such births registered by women in the younger age groups. The magnitude of the problem causes concern among the policymakers, throughout the world, the Philippines included. The government and the private sector in the philippines have started to recognize the need to protect adolescents, particularly girls, from unplanned parenthood. Adolescent fertility programs in the Philippines and neighboring countries are relatively new and policymakers are working to strengthen them. Recently, the Commission on population (Popcom) organized the Youth and Premarriage Task Forces to address the specific needs and concerns of the youth. In line with this objective, private and government agencies have developed programs and projects for specific youth sectors which influence or may be influenced by adolescent secxuality norms. There are projects designed to suit the specific needs of in school youth, out of school youth, working youth, pregnnant unmarried women, and adolescent counselors. Some of these programs and projects are described. Similar to other projects, the adolescent fertility projects in the Philippines experience their share of problems and constrants, including shortage of trainers, lack of reliable data, inadequate supply of resource materials, and the need to strengthen government policy. In view of all this, a need exists to attract more people to train service providers who will attend to adolescents' information needs, ranging from common concerns like dating to more serious concerns like pregnancy. In a recent survey many service providers indicated that the were wary of providing contraceptive information and services to adolescents for 2 reasons: they believe these might promote sexual promiscuity among the married; and the fear they might be sued by irate parents. Coupled with the problem of lack of reliable data is the fact that few materials on sexually related materials have been developed in the philippines. Such local materials are needed for the benefit of both the youth and the service providers and counselors.     

Premarital information efforts under way

Premarital couples are among priority targets of family planning information in the Philippines national population program as they can serve a pivotal role in slowing population growth. Applicants for marriage licenses are required to attend a family planning session as a prerequisite. Following recommendations of a training effort and seminar on Premarital Family Planning Counseling, on July 20, 1976, premarital information was institutionalized in the country by Presidential DEcree 965 which made family planning counseling obligatory to the marriage license applicants. Shortly after that, a multiagency effort gathered information on the status of the Premarital information program in the Philippines, which showed that there is no full-time specialist for the work. Medical officers; social workers; community welfare supervisors; and program and training officers do this work of information in addition to their usual duties. Distribution of the applicants varied greatly in age groups, educational levels, and professional category. The size of the group, length of session and topics of discussion varied greatly. Necessary efforts should be made to solve the major problems by selecting better sites for group sessions and training more personnel for the purpose. There is a great need fordeveloping more effective and research oriented information, education and communication materials, according to the needs and cultural traits of the target audience.     

Women--the deciding factor in family planning?

Prominent women from Korea, Nepal, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Afghanistan discuss family planning attitudes in broad terms. Educated women in urban areas make decisions regarding birth control and family size, but the tradition in most developing countries is that of the man in the authority role. Family planning is intrinsically a joint decision. Obligations to family and family lineage prohibit family planning. In the Philippines, Catholicism is the dominant religion and because of population density, encourages family planning. For economic and social reasons, rural families prefer more children. The changing role of women to include jobs and education will have a positive effect on family planning. The representative from Nepal points out that it is necessary to have family planning in order to have changing women's roles. Rather than emphasizing smaller family size, it is recommended by concensus, that family planners communicate health and nutritional benefits for each individual child.     

The marriage of mentally handicapped people and family planning services for them in Shanghai

This brief article discusses findings from a study by the Shanghai Population Information Center on marriage, fertility, and family planning among mentally handicapped adults in Shanghai, China, and population dynamics. The sample included 184 mentally handicapped persons aged 20-49 years (79 men and 116 women). 47 people had mild, 92 had moderate, and 45 had severe mental deficiencies. The mean age was 33 years. About 29% were married or ever married. 49 were married or ever married women. 6 spouses were mentally deficient. About 70% of the married or ever married had children. 43 had ever used contraception. The most commonly used method was the IUD. Several people had the approval of family members and were sterilized. Only 3 women were prevented from use of contraceptive services by family. 38% of the unmarried women's parents or relatives wanted their mentally deficient family members to be married before old age. 48% discouraged marriage because of the mental deficiency.     

Pop-ed programs for the out-of-school youth

39% of the Philippines youth are not in school and these youths receive no training for responsible parenthood and community life. A number of agencies try to reach these members of society, including the Bureau of Youth Welfare (BYW), the Family Planning Organization of the Philippines (FPOP), the Foundation for Youth Development in the Philippines (FYDP), the Rizal Youth Development Foundation (RYDF), the Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM), and the Philippine Youth Welfare Coordinating Committee. BYW conducts informal group sessions including discussions among 13-24 year old members who have started self-employment projects. FPOP's youth program, SIGLA, aims at developing out-of-school youths social y and having them disseminate information to other out of school youths. This information includes family development, family planning, and population-related information, and is disseminated through activities and workshops. FYDP aims at functional literacy but also disseminates family planning information to out-of-school youths. RYDF conducts week-long seminars in topics such as birth processes, family relations, and care of babies. PRRM integrates population and family planning into its nonformal education program for out-of-school youth and adults in Nueva Ecija Province. Problems encountered in these programs are 1) suspicion of parents, and 2) feelings of inadequacy on the part of teachers. While emphasis has been on unemployed youth, efforts should be made to reach those youth who are employed.     

我国青少年未婚人流问题的理论思考

为了加强对青少年未婚人口问题理论探讨，本文回顾了近年我国青少年未婚人流的相关研究，发现目前存在比例高、低龄化、重复人流比例高以及并发症高四大特征；从理论角度思考，认为发育年龄和初婚年龄间隔拉大、更为频繁的人口流动．更加开放婚前性行为态度以及生殖健康知识和服务渠道的缺乏是造成该现状的重要宏观因素；提出应该根据“性行为链条”的理论框架及时转变青少年生殖健康观念、加强对青少年生殖健康服务和改善相关服务模式．才能有助于改善现状。     

The Catholic response to the population problem

A survey of efforts led or sponsored by the Catholic church in response to the population problem in the Philippines. These efforts stem from the Church's belief that population growth is related to the overall picture of development, and that priority must go to social and economic justice. The Catholic Church of the Philippines (to which 85% of the population belong) views it as a problem basically involving care of people, and directs its efforts primarily at internal human sexual control rather than external contraceptive control. Family Life Education began as a program in the church in the 1960s. Efforts by priests, nuns, and lay leaders in Mindanao eventually resulted in counseling in husband-wife relations, marriage commitment, human sexuality, parent-child relations, and responsible parenthood, and to the creation of college courses to prepare teachers in tackling sex education. A program offering natural family planning was also started, initially for employees of a packing firm and later expanding throughout the province. In 1975, the program was launched in Manila, and a year later had 3 family life centers. The ovulation (or Billings) method is offered -- an advantage to low income people because it does not require purchase of a thermometer. Success of this method requires a sense of responsibility on the part of both husband and wife. Widespread international interest in the ovulation method has led to formation of an International Federation for Family Life Promotion, to which the Philippine Federation for Natural Family Planning has applied for membership. The IFFLP is working with the WHO Human Reproduction Unit on 2 projects, part of one of them (a field trial for evaluation) being conducted in Iligan City, Iloilo City, and Manila. Among the concerns of the IFFLP-WHO collaboration is developing a standardized Natural Family Planning curriculum or educational package.     

基于符号互动论视角下的个体生育态度探究

近年来随着人口老龄化进程的明显加快,以及不同地区、城市出现的生育率持续走低等情况,中国未来人口数量的变化成为了一个十分重要的议题。近年来,国家先后制定了“双独生二胎”、“单独生二胎”以及全面放开二胎等鼓励民众生育的相关政策;相关学者也从人口学和经济学等视角对生育问题展开了诸多研究。本研究则是从符号互动论这一微观社会学视角出发,试图了解民众（主要集中在1970年至1995年出生的群体）生育态度是否会受到社会心理因素,尤其是从小生长的家庭环境中,兄弟姊妹等手足人数、手足关系、父母对待子女公平与否和出生排行的影响;以及当前生活环境,如社会治安状况、经济发展前景和政治稳定性等方面的主观判断对生育态度的影响;最后研究还将结婚意愿、性别等因素纳入到影响个体生育态度的分析模型之中。研究结果发现,兄弟姊妹等手足越多者,未来越倾向要生孩子;手足间关系越好者,未来也越倾向于要生孩子;排行中间的比排行老大的生孩子意愿高;无论父母对自己和手足公平情况怎样,都不会影响其生育态度。此外在所有外在环境中,经济状况是影响人们生育态度的主要因素,有结婚意愿者更倾向于生育孩子,男性也显著比女性更倾向于生育孩子。     

Our population predicament: a new look

Issued to mark the Population Reference Bureau's 50th anniversary, this issue updates the story of world population presented in its popular predecessor of 1971, "Man's Population Predicament." Estimated at 1/2 billion in 1650, world population reached about 2 billion in 1930, 4 billion in 1975, and is projected to be about 6 billion in 2000. Most of today's rapid growth is occurring among the 3/4 of the world's peoples living in less developed countries where the post-World War II gap between high birth rates and falling death rates has only recently begun to narrow. This growth, coupled with high consumption in developing countries, is putting tremendous pressures on the Earth's resources, environment, and social fabric. New evidence on Europe's population transition and from China, Indonesia, and Thailand in the 1970s suggests that well-designed family planning programs can speed fertility decline but rapid worldwide attainment of replacement level fertility will also require special development efforts and measures that go beyond family planning. Current projections of the world's ultimate peak population range from 8 billion in the mid 21st century to 11 billion in about 2125, depending on when replacement-level fertility is reached. China's drive for a drastic birth rate reduction and the oil crisis might change fertility behavior more rapidly than most demographers have heretofore thought likely.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

The influence of the family on premarital sexual attitudes and behavior

This research has expanded our understanding of the determinants of adolescent sexuality in several directions. We have used a study of mothers and children to construct and estimate a model of the intergenerational transmission of sexual attitudes and behavior. With data collected from both mothers and children, we were able to proceed further than most past research and to consider both the attitudes and behaviors of mothers as reported by the mothers themselves. These data permitted an investigation of the determinants of maternal attitudes concerning adolescent sexuality as well as an examination of the influences of the attitudes and experiences of mothers on the attitudes, perceptions, and behavior of children. Obviously, limiting the study to white families prevents generalization of our findings to other subgroups of the population. The findings demonstrate the importance and relevance of parental and adolescent attitudes in understanding adolescent sexuality. Premarital sexuality is a salient issue to both young people and their parents. There are, however, very important and substantial differences in the attitudes of parents and children. On average, the attitudes of young people today are much less restrictive than those of their parents, reflecting either life cycle differences or the impact of social change. The intergenerational difference is recognized by young people themselves and probably affects the ability of parents to assist their maturing children in adjusting to and dealing with their sexuality--a difficulty likely to be reflected in the relative lack of success sexually active young people have in preventing pregnancy. Our findings also add to the research literature in demonstrating that although children, on average, have more permissive attitudes than their parents, the attitudes of individual parents tend to be reflected in the attitudes of individual children. Children whose mothers have less restrictive attitudes have, on average, less restrictive attitudes themselves. Further, the attitudes of mothers are also reflected in the behavior of their children, so on average, mothers with more permissive attitudes have children who are more sexually active. The influence of maternal attitudes, however, is stronger for children's attitudes than for their behavior. Of course, variability in children's attitudes and behavior--and even their perceptions of maternal attitudes--can only be partially explained by the attitudes of their mothers; but presumably, if the attitudes of other important family members, including fathers and siblings, were known, the prediction of adolescent attitudes would improve.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Smokers’ Sexual Behavior and Their Satisfaction with Family Life

Smokers tend to be more impatient and prefer immediate benefits compared with non-smokers. If people follow their primitive instincts they will engage in sexual behavior. Impatient people are more likely to have sex. However, for married people, having sex with a spouse is considered to be an investment in family life. Based on individual level data of Japan General Social Surveys, this paper investigated how sexual behavior differs between smokers and non-smokers. In addition to it, determinants of life satisfaction are also investigated. The important findings through the interval regression model and the ordered probit model are: (1) frequency of sex is positively associated with family satisfaction; (2) unmarried smokers are more likely to have sex than unmarried non-smokers; (3) married smokers are less likely to have sex than married non-smokers. It follows from estimation results that smoking behavior alerts us to his unobserved characteristics before marriage, thus reducing information asymmetry.     

Fertility survey in the rural areas of Hubei Province]

In July, 1981, the staff of the Population Research Section of the Economics Department of Wuhan University and family planning personnel at the local level conducted a survey on fertility in the rural areas of Hubei Province. The survey was conducted in the forms of public opinion polls and individual conversations with the local people. The results of this survey can be summarized as follows: (1) Marriage Question -- the average age for first marriage is 22.54. The marriage rate is 5.3/1,000 for age 18, 35.5/1,000 for age 19, 54.2/1,000 for age 20, 171.9/1,000 for age 21, 393.5/1,000 for age 22, 717.8/1,000 for age 23, 886.3/1,000 for age 24, and 965.3/1,000 for age 25. (2) Birth Question -- average time between first marriage and first child is two years. Women between the ages of 25 and 29 average 2 children; women between the ages 20 and 24 average 1.3 children. Figures show that an unlimited population growth is already under restraint, and the fertility rate shows some obvious decline. (3) Ideological Question -- traditional beliefs favoring more children and favoring boys to girls are still strong in the minds of the people. In general, young males and females still contemplate an early marriage and wish to have two children. In order to correct the people's ideology and match it with national population policy, more work is needed in family planning.