Gender inequality in human capital accumulation and economic growth: a comparative analysis of Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Even though the significance of human capital in the growth literature is well established, little evidence is available on the role of education on growth segregated on a gender basis. The present study has focused on the importance of female education and employment and queried to what extent gender inequality in education and employment has an impact on economic growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. To answer this question, a simultaneous equations model covering time period of 1975–2009 has been used and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) has been applied. The results have confirmed that the gender gap in education has induced an adverse impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly, through rapid population growth and low investment. Results also show that though there is gender inequality in human capital accumulation in both counties but the intensity is higher in Pakistan as compared to Sri Lanka. The study explored the opportunities to encourage the role of females in the developmental activities of these countries. In view of the fact that gender inequality in education is critical for growth, the study recommends that rather than slashing the PSDP (Public Sector Development Program), Pakistan needs to promote investment in human capital and that there should be equal opportunity for education and employment for both males and females in both south Asian Countries.     

Macroeconomic impact of public debt and foreign aid in Sri Lanka

Accumulation of public debt in Sri Lanka is raised significantly since the independence. It exceeded 100% of gross domestic products (GDP) in the late 1980s and the early 2000s. Although it has been declined in the recent past and becomes 79.3% of GDP in 2016; the high level of debt in a weak fiscal position of the small economy Sri Lanka is an issue of concern. In this backdrop, this paper examines the impact of public debt and foreign aid on income, price level and interest rate in Sri Lanka for the post-reform period. It is found that public debt in general and foreign debt, in particular, depresses income and stimulates price level. Domestic debt has some impact on the price level. On the other hand, foreign aid has a deleterious effect on both the income and price level. The foreign debt and aid have raised interest rate both in the short-run and in the long-run, while no significant impact of the domestic debt on interest rate is found. Based on these findings, the paper elaborates on some long-term measures for reducing the dependence on debt and aid in Sri Lanka.     

斯里兰卡内战结束以来印度对斯政策分析

自2009年斯里兰卡内战结束以来,印度积极参与了斯里兰卡的重建与和解进程并推动两国的经济一体化。但是印度的对斯里兰卡政策并未能取得预定的效果。除了受自身实力、斯里兰卡外交独立性、泰米尔纳德邦等因素的制约外,地区战略的排他性从根本上也影响了印度对斯里兰卡政策的效果。     

Does female employment affect fertility? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper tests the validity of the proposition that there is a causal relationship between fertility choice and female employment in a multivariate framework during the period 1958–1998 in the United Kingdom. Following recent advances in economic and demographic theory the nexus between female employment and fertility is reexamined taking into account changes in the labor market and the overall real economic activity. Our key finding is that expanding the estimating equations to control for the influences of changes in real wages and real output creates a positive relationship between fertility and female employment and a negative relationship between fertility and real wages. Finally, fertility choice should not be considered exogenous to the female employment, the labor market or the growth process.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： MIGRANT WORKERS IN THE COURSE OF URBANIZATION Migrant workers in China： a general survey

本文通过对相关实证研究文献的疏理,从农民工总量规模、结构分布、对输出地贡献和对输入地影响四个方面对中国农民工的总体性状况进行了描述与分析。在总量规模的分析中,我们需要注意各调查的统计口径,值得注意的是,根据最新发布的农普调查数据,农村外出从业劳动力已达1．3亿,此处数据不含随外出从业劳动力外出的非劳动力人口。外出务工经商者以初中文化的青壮年为主,行业分布以制造业、建筑业和服务业为主,长距离迁移占很高比例。农民工跨区域转移这种就业结构变动对我国经济增长贡献巨大,已有研究估计对GDP增量贡献在20％左右。从输出地来看,总的影响是积极的,特别是收入状况的改善,但也留下了数量庞大的留守族。     

Agricultural policies and development: A socioeconomic investigation applied to Sri Lanka

This paper explores the interrelationship between agricultural policies and development by means of a dynamically recursive, computable general equilibrium model applied to Sri Lanka. The agricultural policies investigated include elimination of the food subsidy, land reform, and technical change in agriculture. The goals considered are the levels and growth rates of GNP and employment, the distribution of income, and the real income level of the lowest income group. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the association between policies and goals and identifies the key economic mechanisms in this association.     

Fertility implications of nuptiality patterns in South Asia

The author presents an overview of nuptiality in South Asia, with particular reference to India and Bangladesh, and of the effect of nuptiality on fertility. Data are from censuses and national surveys. The characteristics of nuptiality over the past century, including early age at marriage, the large number of widows, and the universality of marriage, are discussed. Exceptions to the general patterns observed, such as Sri Lanka and Kerala, are identified, and the reasons for decreases in fertility in Kerala are analyzed     

Asia educates to brake the population juggernaut

Most of the Asian countries have national programs to provide educat ion on all factors that influence population growth. School children are given information on the effects of high birthrates on family and nation. Sloan Wayland thinks that the Asians will become the world's experts in population education. In all 9 countries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand) represented at a Meeting of Experts on the Role of University Faculties/Colleges of Education in Population Education in Bangkok, population education in varying degrees had been introduced in primary and secondary schools.     

Trade and poverty nexus: A case study of Sri Lanka

The link between trade liberalisation and poverty has become one of the most debated topics in recent years. There is a growing body of empirical literature on this topic and many studies provide mixed results. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a detailed case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is used as an analytical framework to examine the trade-poverty nexus. The results suggest that, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro-poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall, this study suggests that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor creating uneven gains across different household groups in Sri Lanka. While short-term complementary policies are needed to compensate vulnerable income groups, long-term policies are needed to make gains from trade liberalisation more inclusive and equitable to maintain economic and political stability in Sri Lanka.     

Determinants of Social Expenditure in Sri Lanka

The study examines the determinants of social expenditure in Sri Lanka for the period 1970–2010. The data are from a new data set assembled by the authors. The social spending data are collected from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka on education, health, and also on welfare spending. The study explains the determinants of social spending considering the demand‐side and the supply‐side driving forces and finds that inequality issues have been a major concern of social policy in Sri Lanka. Similarly, this study implies the influence of political behavior to satisfy voters as explained by the fiscal illusion theory. The globalization is not significant for social expenditure as commonly assumed in developed countries. Even the consequences of the self‐interested behavior of bureaucrats are not evident in the Sri Lankan welfare sector.     

On changes in the age composition of the population and policy options for population planning

This analysis, based on 1978 data from official household registers, suggests that the 1983-2000 period will be critical for China's efforts to control population growth. If declines in the fertility rate are maintained, the possibility of stabilizing China's population at 800-900 million in the next century is feasible. If the population is to be kept under 1.2 billion by the year 2000, the general fertility rate must be lowered to 1.8 in 1985 and must decline 0.1 each 5 years thereafter until it reaches 1.5 in the year 2000. Once population growth is brought under control, it will be necessary to address consequent increases in the median age of the population. Those over 65 years of age will comprise 7.1-7.8% of the population in the year 2000, depending on whether fertility rates are low or high. The medium projection includes a population of 1.211 billion in the year 2000, approaching the peak value but allowing the fertility rate to rise slowly to guard against excessive aging of the population. The proportion of those over 65 years of age reaches a peak value of 20.2% in the year 2040. Overall, these projections suggest a "golden age" continuing until about 2020 in which the proportion of those both over 65 years and under 15 years will be rather low. The dependency ratio should begin to climb after 2020, reaching a peak in 2040 and stabilizing by 2070 at a level slightly higher than that existing today in developed countries. Since a rational age composition and a suitable decrease in the proportion of dependents are essential for economic growth, future analyses should focus on the quality of the population and not just population size. As long as birth rates continue to fall, the proportion of the dependent population will also fall and have a beneficial effect on China's economic development.     

充分就业:和谐社会的重要标志

我国人口基数大,新增劳动力、国企下岗分流人员增加和农村劳动力转移的现象并存,呈现出劳动力供求总量矛盾与结构性矛盾交织、就业压力长期存在的局面。同时,存在多种影响充分就业的客观因素,使得就业的数量与就业质量受到严峻的挑战。因此,实行"经济发展与充分就业并重、效率与公平均衡"的方针,大力发展生产力,推进技术创新,鼓励非公经济、第三产业和中小企业的发展,保护劳动者的合法权益,为构建和谐社会奠定坚实基础。     

How did divorced women fare in the 1990s?: Analysis of work and hourly earnings

This paper presents evidence of changes in employment and real wages in the population of divorced single women during the 1990s. Using data from the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS) for 1989 and 1999, the paper estimates multivariate models of labor force participation and hourly wages for each year. Differences between years in employment and wages are decomposed into portions attributable to changes in measured characteristics and changes in coefficients of the models. Estimates indicate that full time employment remained virtually unchanged during the decade, and real wages increased by less than 2%. Decomposition of the regression models shows that measured characteristics in this population changed in a direction that would have lead to higher wage growth, but those changes were offset by changes in the model’s coefficients. The result is that earnings experienced only modest growth. In the labor force participation model, changes in measured characteristics worked in the direction of a modest decrease in full time employment, but again coefficient changes provided an offsetting effect.     

Experiences of disabled people making the transition from vocational training to employment in Sri Lanka: an exploratory study

This study examines the experiences of disabled people in Sri Lanka as they make the transition out of vocational training programmes into employment. This study was carried out using purposive sampling method to select ‘good practice’ cases and semi-structured interviews with 12 disabled people. The study applied thematic analysis to the qualitative data using NVivo software. The disabled people were found to have distinctive employment experiences following vocational training such as gaining work satisfaction, earning and spending income, presenting workability, expanding social relationships, and facing challenges. This study also identified key factors related to the transition process, including skills acquired through training, job opportunities, participants’ strengths and empowerment, supportive environments, and suitable work. These findings have important implications for both policy and practice.     

Social security for the unorganized sector in South Asia

This paper discusses social security programmes for the disadvantaged elderly population in the unorganized sector in three South Asian countries: India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Owing to data constraints, the discussion is limited to social assistance, old age homes, and pensions. The analysis suggests that both the State and private voluntary organizations have played only a limited role in providing social assistance in old age. The outcome is inadequate coverage and funding for the programmes designed to assist older persons. Because of rapid ageing, if the current situation is allowed to prevail, the outcome will be even less promising. Increased coverage and funding will require greater focus on achieving higher economic growth rates and improving the fiscal management of public expenditure.     

Thailand's reproductive revolution

Thailand has achieved a remarkable population revolution in the past 15 years, resulting in a fertility decline of 44%, the 3rd greatest decline of the major developing countries. Thailand is quite distinct from either China or South Korea, the leaders in fertility decline. It has neither China's authoritarian power system to enforce population control nor the highly developed, Westernized outlook of South Korea. Instead it achieved its astounding fertility drop through a noncoercive family planning program operating within a context of rapid social change and a cultural setting. Thailand's drop in population growth has touched almost all segments of Thai society. The preferred number of children among couples married less than 5 years has dropped in both rural and urban families at almost exactly the same rate, from about 3.2 in 1969 to 2.3 in 1984. Religious groups represent the only substantial difference in family size preference; Moslem women married less than 5 years stated a desired average of 3.1 children versus 2.3 for Buddhist women. The direct case of the fertility drop is a national increase in contraceptive use. In 1984, 65% of Thai women reported using contraception. The Thai population, however, was ripe for using contraception when it became available due to 1) mass media creating a desire for consumer goods, 2) the increased costs of education to parents, 3) the willingness of parents to trade off "parent repayment" from many children for a few quality children, 4) couples' autonomy in fertility decision making, 5) the high status of women in Thailand, and 6) the fact that Buddhism poses no barriers to contraception. Current trends show no immediate sign of change.     

Planning studies with an optimal control multisectoral dynamic economic model: The case of Sri Lanka

This article investigates the impact of different development scenarios on optimal investment strategy and economy of Sri Lanka and studies the potential of applying control theory techniques to economic planning. The multisectoral dynamic planning model is formulated as a linear quadratic tracking problem. Targets to be tracked define the development strategies: economic growth, trade deficit reduction, food self-sufficiency, and balanced growth. Besides providing insights into these strategies, empirical results show that the difficulty in setting inequality constraints and ensuring nonnegative solutions could undermine the linear tracking optimal control technique for development planning.     

Reforming formal social security systems in India and Sri Lanka

This paper analyses the formal social security systems of India and Sri Lanka. While many of the social, demographic, and economic indicators differ markedly between the countries, the structure of the social security systems, challenges, and reform directions are quite similar. Thus, the provident fund organizations in both countries need to modernize and benchmark their governance, operations, and investment policies. The dualism in their systems, which has resulted in relatively generous non–contributory pensions being provided to civil servants, also needs to be addressed. This dualism and the fiscal unsustainability of current civil service pension arrangements lend urgency to reforms in this area in the two countries. The prospects for voluntary tax–advantaged private sector schemes are encouraging, particularly in India. The conditions for reforms are more favourable now owing to hopeful signs of an end to longstanding conflict in Sri Lanka, and decade–long experience with financial sector reforms in India.     

Can increased educational attainment explain declining Indigenous fertility?

Prior research shows that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women are more likely to have children and have more children, on average, than non-Indigenous women. However, like those of the total Australian population, fertility rates of Indigenous women have been declining since the 1970s. The decline has been more significant in recent years. Between 2006 and 2016, an increasing proportion of Indigenous women postponed childbirth from their teens into their 20s and 30s, leading women to have fewer children over their lifetimes. During the same period, there was a rapid increase in educational attainment among the Indigenous population. This paper examines educational gradients in fertility among Indigenous women and whether the observed fertility decline is linked with the increased educational attainment. Using data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Australian Census of Population and Housing and applying a shift-share decomposition analysis, we find that education has been a big driver of falling fertility rates in non-remote areas. In remote areas, education has had a much smaller effect (except for youngest women).     

Anti‐Muslim hate speech and displacement narratives: Case studies from Sri Lanka and Australia

Muslim communities have frequently been the victim of vilification and discrimination in Australia and the broader Asian region. This article discusses and compares the narratives around Muslim vilification in Australia and Sri Lanka. Despite the fact that these two nations are vastly different in size, demographics and cultural history, I will argue that there are remarkable similarities in how Muslims are subject to attack in both nations. The hate speech occasioned against Muslims in Sri Lanka and Australia is shaped by almost identical narrative structures and is cultivated in similar online environments. In both cases, anti‐Muslim animus is fuelled by a fear of displacement and perceived contamination of what nativists regard as ethnically sovereign territory. I will argue that the underlying sub‐text in both cases is owed to a repulsion to the physical presence of Muslims which can be understood in terms of Mary Douglas' concept of the moral pollutant.