American families: policy issues

"Increases in the number of children living in single-parent (usually female-headed) households and in the proportion of mothers who work outside their homes have raised concern in the United States about the effects of these trends on the well-being of children and the possible need for policy intervention. This paper discusses the arguments for and against policies that affect families. We review a number of such policies and what research suggests about their likely effects. The policies discussed...include those concerning child support, welfare, income taxes, child and dependent care, family leave, family planning, programs to improve parenting skills and family function, and economic growth."     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.     

Opting for families: recent trends in the fertility of highly educated women

After declining for many years, there are indications that fertility may be increasing among highly educated women. This paper provides a comprehensive study of recent trends in the fertility of college-graduate women. In contrast to most existing work, we find that college graduate women are indeed opting for families. Data from the Current Population Surveys and Vital Statistics Birth Data both show that fertility increases among college graduate women, especially at older ages since the mid- to late 1990s. There are also increases in fertility among less-educated women, but these are concentrated at younger ages.     

Recent health trends in the Native American population

This paper reviews the changes in the health status of Native Americans since the mid-1950s, how the disease pattern differs from non-Natives, and regional differences within the Native American population. Despite some limitations, data from the Indian Health Service indicate that substantial decline in the infant mortality rate and mortality from such infectious diseases as tuberculosis and gastroenteritis has occurred. With the exception of cardiovascular diseases and cancer, the risk of death from most causes are higher among Native Americans than the total US population. Geographic variation in disease rates can be demonstrated, most notable in diabetes. The unique pattern of diseases among Native Americans reflect the interaction of environmental and genetic factors. Genetic susceptibility plays a significant role in some diseases, such as diabetes, while for others, the generally lower socioeconomic status, higher prevalence of certain health risk behaviors and lower utilization of preventive services in the Native American population are important determinants.     

The growth of American families studies an assessment of significance

This is a review focused mainly upon the book Fertility and Family Planning in the United States, by Pascal K. Whelpton, Arthur A. Campbell, and John E. Patterson, published by Princeton University Press in 1966, and representing the results of the second GAF survey (1960). The initial GAF survey was conducted in 1955 and resulted in the book Family Planning, Sterility, and Population Growth, by Ronald Freedman, Pascal K. Whelpton, and Arthur A. Campbell, published by McGraw-Hill in 1958.A basic purpose of the GAF studies, as contrived by Whelpton, was that of trying to improve the bases for population estimates by learning from young women themselves the number of children that they expected to have altogether and during the next five years. By repeating the study five years later, it was hoped to test the validity of replies on expectations by comparing them with subsequent performance. This involved interviewing not the same women but the same types of women in 1955 and 1960.The GAF studies have indicated the usefulness of questions on number of children expected. They suggest that the replies of 1955 have low predictive value for individual behavior but high predictive value for group behavior. They have provided invaluable data on other aspects of fertility unavailable from official sources, such as family planning, fecundity, and the influence of religion. The chief inadequacies of the GAF studies have been those associated with small numbers. Moreover, definitive comparisons of expectations with performance would seem to require longitudinal studies of the same women rather than periodic studies of the same types of women. On the other hand, the latter type of design doubtless is preferable for other purposes.Besides the yield of new data on fertility, the GAF studies have been significant in that one government agency provided the funds for the National Fertility Survey of 1965, which was essentially a third round of the GAF studies, and another government agency is considering the institution of regular surveys of the GAF type in order to provide a wider scope of data relating to fertility. The volume under review is at once a fitting living memorial to the senior author and the Scripps Foundation, a credit to the coauthors, and a worthy model for future studies.     

The Philippines: population trends and dilemmas

National and regional variations in population growth rates, age and sex composition, fertility and mortality measures, the numbers in the working age population and population distribution are described and their implications for future development outlined. The prospects for the next 20 years indicate a continuation and even exacerbation of regional imbalances in terms of birth, death, and migration rates with the Mindanao area turning out to be the most demographically disadvantaged of the 3 island groups. The policy makers will have to take account of current and projected numbers of people in the planning process if they wish to improve the welfare of each and every Filipino.     

Stem families and joint families in comparative historical perspective

This note revisits the author's June 2009 PDR article, "Reconsidering the Northwest European family system." Using an array of contemporary and historical census microdata from around the world with simple controls for agricultural employment and demographic structure, I detected no significant differences in complex family structure between nineteenth-century Western Europe and North America and twentieth-century developing countries. This article adds two new measures designed to detect stem families and joint families. The results suggest that Western Europeans and North Americans have had a long-standing aversion to joint family living arrangements, and that this pattern cannot be easily ascribed to demographic and economic conditions.     

Fertility trends in Taiwan: Tradition and change

Fertility rates have been falling In Taiwan for several years. The declines appear to be general throughout the island, and are occurring mainly in the age groups above 50, as would be expected if there are beginnings of family limitation. There are indications that the fertility rates are negatively correlated with indices of modernization In local areas. Several pilot studies indicate a consensus in the population on the desirability of a moderate number of children, the desirability of the Idea of family planning, a positive valuation of such traditional Chinese values as the joint family and support of parents by their children In old age. In one urban area studied, a substantial minority of wives 25–29 years old have used a family planning method already. The “pre-pregnancy health program” of the Provincial Health Department has been quite successful in providing service to interested couples, and among these couples the programme is demonstrably effective in reducing birth rates. Data from the various sources are consistent with the speculation that Taiwanese couples want to use modern family planning methods to maintain elements of the traditional Chinese family in a modern setting.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Poverty in America: trends and new patterns

Poverty trends in the US between 1959-83, as revealed by census data, are described, 1984 government expenditures on social programs are delineated, contrasting explanations put forth to explain the increase in poverty between 1978-83 are critically examined, and some practical suggestions for reducing poverty levels are made. Between 1959-73, the absolute number and the proportion of individuals below the poverty line decreased respectively from 39.5-23.0 million and from 22.4%-11.1%. Between 1973-78, poverty rates fluctuated somewhat. Between 1978-83, the absolute number and proportion of poor increased respectively from 24.5-35.3 million and from 11.4%-15.2%. Between 1978-83, the depth of poverty also increased. The proportion of families with incomes below US$5000 increased from 3.9%-5.7%, and the median income for poor families declined. Some experts, such as Charles Murray, attribute the increase in poverty to federal poverty programs. Murray maintains that poverty programs undermine the work ethic and encourage the creation of female headed households. Others, including Michael Harrington, attribute the increase in poverty to structural changes in the economy and to changes in the composition of the population. Harrington maintains that the decline in the number of manufacturing jobs, the lack of employment opportunities for unskilled workers, and the entry of the baby boom generation into the working age population makes it increasingly difficult for young males, and especially for black males, to find jobs offering financial security. The present analysis provided more support for the latter explanation than for the former explanation. Numerous studies indicate that there is considerable movement in and out of poverty and that most individuals are poor because they cannot find jobs. The American public has a mistaken impression about the amount of money expended by the government to provide assistance to the poor. The bulk of the government's social expenditures goes to the middle class. There are 4 major types of social benefit programs. These are 1) non-means-tested cash assistance programs, including social security retirement and disability and unemployment insurance; 2) means-tested cash assistance programs, including Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC); 3) noncash, non-means-tested benefits, such as Medicare for the elderly; and 4) noncash, means-tested benefits, such as Medicaid. In fiscal year 1984, means-tested benefits amounted to US$61.0 billion. In contrast, non-means-tested benefits amounted to US$262.7 billion. Female headed households, especially among blacks increased considerably in recent years; however, the major reason for this increase is the shortage of black males with incomes sufficiently large to support a family. Recommendations for reducing poverty without seriously increasing the federal deficit are 1) to provide relevant job training so that all able-bodied individuals can become productive taxpayers; 2) to change the tax code so the poor do not have to pay taxes; 3) to standardize AFDC payments throughout the country and to tie the payments to the inflation rate; 4) to expand successful programs, e.g., Headstart, and; 5) to reinstitute programs to help welfare mothers become independent.     

Redefining single-parent families: Cohabitation and changing family reality

This paper explores the implications, for the measured prevalence and duration of mother-only families, of marked changes in nonmarital fertility, unmarried cohabitation, and homeleaving and re-entry. Throughout, estimates are compared on the basis of marital definitions and definitions including cohabitation. The duration of the first single-parent spell appears to have increased under the marital definition, but declines substantially when cohabitations are taken into account. A substantial proportion of single mothers have spent some time as single parents while in their parents’ household. Hence we argue that definitions of single-parent families must be based on living arrangements rather than on the parents’ marital status.     

Public attitudes toward gays and lesbians: trends and predictors

Public opinion about gay men and lesbians is a popular topic in both the popular press and academic journals. However, analyses of attitudinal trends are rare. Tracing changes in opinion polls on homosexuals in the United States between 1977 and 2003, the first part of the present study showed that public opinion of this minority group has become more positive over time. Part two of this research utilized a recent national survey to identify factors predicting anti-gay attitudes. The best predictors included respondents' sex, stance of anti-abortion and anti-women's equality, and religiosity. Implications for gay rights advocates were discussed.     

Consanguinity and child mortality: The risk faced by families

Previous research reveals that the characteristics and practices of a child's family are important determinants of its chances of surviving beyond childhood. This study investigates the effects of consanguinity on a family's odds of experiencing the death of a child in Pakistan, a society in which marriage among close relatives is common. Analysis of data from the 1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey reveals that first cousin marriages increase a couple's risk of enduring the death of one or more of their children. These couples are 1.18 times as likely to have a child die by its fifth birthday than couples not related by blood net of other factors associated with child mortality. Elimination of first cousin marriages would contribute to a modest decrease in the proportion of Pakistani families suffering the death of a child.     

Postneonatal diarrhea mortality of Mexican American and Anglo American infants: Trends and context

In the 1930s and 1940s, the Mexican origin population of San Antonio, Texas, USA, was desperately impoverished and inhabited some of the worst slums in the USA. Mortality of Mexican origin infants in the 1930s and 1940s was dominated by diarrhea, a cause of death identified with fecal contamination of the environment. The postneonatal diarrhea mortality rate (risk) was 48 per 1,000 Mexican origin infants, but only 7 per 1,000 Anglo infants. By 1970 this cause of death had virtually disappeared in both populations, but in the 35 years of 1935-1969, Mexican origin infants accounted for over 90 percent of all diarrhea deaths in the city. Limited evidence suggests that miserable living conditions without proper water supplies and sanitation in the densely settled Mexican American neighborhoods gave rise to environmental contamination which resulted in high diarrhea morbidity and mortality. The hypothesis is suggested that reduction of mortality from diarrhea was a consequence of specific community interventions.     

Psychosocial correlates and antecedents of abortion: An exploratory study

Longitudinal data are used to examine the relation between young adult women's abortion experience and a variety of antecedent and subsequent personality, perceived environment, and behavior variables. About one-quarter of the women in two separate samples reported that they had had an abortion. Bivariate analyses show that young adult women who have had an abortion are characterized by greater psychosocial unconventionality than women who have not had an abortion. Similar differences along an underlying dimension of conventionality-unconventionality distinguish, antecedent to the abortion experience, women who would later have an abortion from those who would not. The findings are consistent with the expectations of Problem-Behavior Theory (Jessor & Jessor, 1977).This paper is a report from the Young Adult Follow-Up Study (R. Jessor, princial investigator) supported by Grant No. AA-03745 from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.We are grateful to Dr. Lee Jessor for her contribution to the overall longitudinal project and to several of the measures employed in this report.     

Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods

In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.     

Three measures of longevity: Time trends and record values

This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth century: it moved from a plateau level, around age 80, to having a similar pace of increase as that observed for the mean and the median in most recent years. These findings explain the previously observed uninterrupted increase in the record life expectancy. The cause of this increase has changed over time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death.     

Humans and biodiversity: population and demographic trends in the hotspots

An analysis of human population trends from 2000 to 2010 shows that of the roughly one billion additional people on the planet today, a disproportionate number live in the biodiversity hotspots and tropical wilderness areas (TWAs). Although the annual population growth rate in the hotspots declined from 1.6 to 1.3 %, the total population increased by 187 million people. While less densely populated, the TWAs grew at roughly twice the rate of the hotspots. Overall, slower growth rates are indicative of longer-term global trends in decreasing fertility, aging populations, and increased urbanization. The hotspots, however, are largely inhabited by people who have yet to enter their reproductive years or are in the early stages therein. The young age structure means that populations in these priority conservation areas will grow even as fertility rates fall further, and biodiversity will be forced to share dwindling natural habitat with ever more people.