The changing American family

This Bulletin documents recent changes in American family patterns resulting both from longterm trends in urbanization, industrialization, and economic growth and the disruption of the Great Depression and World War 2, as well as changed attitudes toward marriage, parenthood, divorce, and the roles of women. Following a postwar boom in the 1950s and 1960s, marriage rates have now fallen to levels observed in the early 20th century. Since 1970, the number of unmarried couples living together has more than tripled to 1.9 million in 1983. The divorce rate has now stabilized after more than doubling since 1960, but at the current level, 1/2 of all recent marriages will end in divorce. Most divorced persons remarry fairly quickly, often creating complex families of "step-relatives." With 19% of households with minor children now headed by a women with no husband present, up to 1/2 of all children will live for sometime in a fatherless family before age 18. Over 1/2 of all married women, including 49% of married mothers of preschool children, now hold a paid job outside the home. Working wives boost a family's income by an average 40% but still are expected to shoulder most responsiblility for home and childcare. White women now in their 20s say they expect to have an average of 2 children, but are delaying childbearing to such an extent that 29% could end up childless. Most of the elderly live on their own but usually near children whom they see frequently. Despite changes in traditional family patterns, Americans consistently report that a happy marriage and good family are the most important aspects of life. And though most Americans now live with few or no family members, they maintain active contact with a large network of family.     

Midpregnancy Marriage and Divorce: Why the Death of Shotgun Marriage Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

Conventional wisdom holds that births following the colloquially termed “shotgun marriage”—that is, births to parents who married between conception and the birth—are nearing obsolescence. To investigate trends in shotgun marriage, we matched North Carolina administrative data on nearly 800,000 first births among white and black mothers to marriage and divorce records. We found that among married births, midpregnancy-married births (our preferred term for shotgun-married births) have been relatively stable at about 10 % over the past quarter-century while increasing substantially for vulnerable population subgroups. In 2012, among black and white less-educated and younger women, midpregnancy-married births accounted for approximately 20 % to 25 % of married first births. The increasing representation of midpregnancy-married births among married births raises concerns about well-being among at-risk families because midpregnancy marriages may be quite fragile. Our analysis revealed, however, that midpregnancy marriages were more likely to dissolve only among more advantaged groups. Of those groups considered to be most at risk of divorce—namely, black women with lower levels of education and who were younger—midpregnancy marriages had the same or lower likelihood of divorce as preconception marriages. Our results suggest an overlooked resiliency in a type of marriage that has only increased in salience.     

Understanding U.S. fertility: findings from the National Survey of Family Growth,Cycle III

The 1st overview of findings from Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth, the latest of 7 such surveys of US fertility since 1955 and the 1st to cover all women of childbearing age in the conterminous US is presented. Interviews between August 1982 and February 1983 with 7969 women, representative of 54 million women aged 15-44, reveal that sterilization is now the leading contraceptive method in the US, used by 33% of all contraceptors in 1982 (22%, female sterilization; 11% male sterilization), followed by the pill (29%), condom (12%), diaphragm (8%), and IUD (7%). Linked to this is the continuing decline in unwanted births since the baby boom peak in 1957, which accounted for nearly 1/2 of the drop between 1973 and 1982 in ever-married women's children ever born, from 2.2 to 1.9/woman. However, births conceived sooner than planned increased slightly among younger married women, probably due to the large drop in pill use since 1973 and increased use of the less effective diaphragm and condom among couples still intending to have more children. Black women are now more likely than white women to use the most effective female methods: female sterilization, pill, and IUD. Only 45% of women aged 15-44 in 1982 had used a contraceptive method at 1st intercourse. 4 out of 5 women married for the 1st time between 1975 and 1982 had intercourse before marriage. However, premarital sexual activity may be leveling off among white teenagers after a steep rise since the early 1970s and declining moderately among black teenagers. 16% of 1st marriages among ever-married women aged 15-44 in 1982 had been dissoved within 5 years, mostly by divorce or separation. 59% of black women with children in 1982 had their 1st birth before marriage, compared to 11% of white mothers. The proportion of babies who were breastfed more than doubled between 1970-71 and 1980-81, from 24 to 53%.     

Nonmarital cohabitation and fertility in the United States and Western Europe

The increasing popularity of nonmarital cohabitation and a decline in marriage rates in the United States and Western Europe has led to a growing research interest in cohabitation without marriage and its relationship to traditional marriage. This article examines the evidence on the prevalence of cohabitation and the characteristics of cohabitants, and focuses on the childbearing behavior of cohabiting couples who are not married. The evidence to date suggests that in Denmark and Sweden cohabitation is widespread, especially among young people, and childbearing within cohabitational unions is relatively common. In the rest of Western Europe and in the United States, cohabitation is less common and fertility is less frequent. Fertility will be affected to the extent that couples delay having children until they are married. Policy and law concerning cohabitants and their children are changing rapidly. Most of these changes have resulted in a blurring of the distinctions between married and unmarried couples and between legitimate and illegitimate children.     

A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption

Married couples with children appear to be less likely to end their marriages than childless couples, especially when the children are young. Although this suggests that children affect the chances that their parents will divorce, the process may not be so simple: the chances that the marriage will last also may affect couples’ willingness to make the commitment to the marriage implied by having children. This paper uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test the hypothesis that the risk of disruption faced by a married woman affects the chances that she will conceive and bear a child. The model used takes into account the simultaneous relationships between marital dissolution and marital fertility by including the hazard of disruption as a predictor of timing and likelihood of marital conception, and by including the results of previous fertility decisions as predictors of disruption of the marriage. We find that the hazard of disruption has strong negative effects on the hazard of marital childbearing, lengthening the intervals between births and decreasing the chances that a child will be born. This effect appears to be strongest for women who have had at least one child, either before or during the current marriage, although it is also large for childless women. Explicitly including the hazard of disruption in models of marital childbearing has sizable and important effects on many predictors of fertility.     

National Estimates of Cohabitation

Data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households are used to provide national estimates of cohabitation trends and levels. The rapid increase since around 1970 is documented over both birth cohorts and marriage cohorts. Almost half of the persons in their early 30s and half of the recently married have cohabited. Changes in the proportion ever married are compared with changes in the proportion who have either married or cohabited. Much of the decline in marriage has been offset by increased living together without being married. The stability of unions of various types is compared. Cohabitations end very quickly in either marriage or disruption. About 60 percent of all first cohabitations result in marriage. Cohabiting unions and marriages preceded by cohabitation are much more likely to break up than are unions initiated by marriage. Multivariate analysis reveals higher rates of cohabitation among women, whites, persons who did not complete high school, and those from families who received welfare or who lived in a single-parent family while growing up.     

Effect of family structure on life satisfaction: australian evidence

How do family arrangements affect subjective well-being? We investigate this issue using data pooled from the IsssA and HILDA, both large, representative national samples of Australia (pooled n=38 447). Our regression analysis of cross-sectional and panel data examines how large are the differences in life satisfaction according to marital status and cohabitation. We find that women and men in formal marriages experience higher levels of life satisfaction than do people in other family arrangements. Moreover, both multiple tests in the cross-section, and tests controlling for prior happiness in the panel analysis, suggest that this is a causal relationship. Aggregating up the levels of life satisfaction generated by different marriage and cohabitation arrangements across a lifetime, suggests that a life-long marriage is the most satisfying. Early divorce followed by an enduring second marriage is little worse (because little time is spent outside the married state). But divorce without remarriage, or long lasting cohabitation without formal marriage, reduce the lifetime sum of subjective well-being by 4–12% for both women and men.     

Socioeconomic Differences According to Family Arrangements in Chile

Family changes have accelerated in Chile in the last decades. Impressively, the proportion of children born outside of marriage has reached over 60%, at the same time that marriage has declined and cohabitation has increased. These changes are regularly considered indicators of a second demographic transition. This study describes the socioeconomic differences that currently exist in Chile between first-time mothers living in different family arrangements, and it asks to what extent these differences are the result of long term disadvantages passed on from the families the respondents grew up in. The data comes from a postpartum survey implemented in Santiago (N = 686 women). The results show large differences in the socioeconomic wellbeing of women in different family arrangements. Women in nuclear marriages stand far apart from any other group in terms of educational attainment, income and participation in the labor force. Cohabiters and married women in extended households enjoy a level of socioeconomic wellbeing that is similar, but not as high as that of married women in nuclear households. Cohabiters in extended households, visiting, and single mothers look alike, and are the most vulnerable women in the sample. The link between the current scenario and the family where the respondents grew up is strong. Under these circumstances, it is hard to interpret the recent demographic changes in Chilean families as a prototypical case of the SDT. The trend the country is following resembles closer the dichotomous trajectory the U.S. has followed.     

The negligible influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility in current danish cohorts, 1975

This paper studies the influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility by applying life table methods to data for cohorts of Danish women born in 1926–1955, collected in retrospective interviews made in 1975. For each five-year cohort, the data have been analyzed by duration of marriage or by duration since previous birth, for women who had no reported births before marriage. Our main empirical results are: (a) that women who married at age 15–19 had higher rates of marital first and second births than those married at ages 20–24, and (b) that premarital cohabitation had very little influence on births of these two first orders in our data.     

The Retrenchment of Marriage: Results from Marital Status Life Tables for the United States, 1995

Marital status life tables were calculated using 1995 US rates of marriage, divorce, and mortality. Compared to figures for 1988, the proportion of persons surviving to age 15 who ever marry remained fairly steady at about five‐sixths of all men and seven‐eighths of all women. The average age at first marriage rose substantially: to 28.6 years for men and 26.6 years for women. The probability of a marriage ending in divorce changed little and was .437 for men and .425 for women. It is likely that no US period or cohort will ever have half of all marriages end in legal divorce, though the highest cohort may reach 47 percent. Patterns of marriage and divorce observed since 1970 show the effect that cohabitation continues to have on the American family, where it is delaying, but not replacing, marriage.     

Delayed childbearing in the U.S.: facts and fictions

Between 1970-82, the proportion of 1st births in the US to women 25 and older rose from 19-36% and the proportion of women still childless at ages 25-34 increased by 56% at about the same time. Although a sharp contrast with the baby boom era of the 1950s and 1960s, todays's epidemic of delayed childbearing is similar to patterns earlier in the 20th century. As then, much is due to delayed age at marriage, but baby boomers now in the their late 20s and early 30s are also delaying childbirth after marriage. The trend stems in part from their economic difficulties as they compete in a tight job market caused both by their large numbers and a turbulent economy. But it is also related to women's increasing education and, in turn, increasing opportunities in and commitment to the labor force, which can be expected to encourage a delayed childbearing even after prospects brighten for young people. Although a diverse group, most of today's delayed childbearers are white, highly educated, 2-career couples. Adequate daytime care for preschool children is a prime concern. Although more employers now offer childcare assistance and flexible work schedules to working parents, the juggle between jobs and childraising can be a strain. On the plus side are delayed childbearers' greater maturity and generally higher incomes, which can ease potential problems created by parent-child age differences as their children grow up. Businesses have been quick to respond to the new market of older, affluent, 1st-time mothers. New methods of treating of circumventing infertility and prenatal detection of chromosomal birth defects can now help overcome potential biological problems that may concern women who choose to delay childbearing past age 30.     

Communicating population and family planning

This thorough look at the change in the American family 1900-1700 finds that 40% of marriages among women now in their late 20s may end in divorce, that the divorce rate is stabilizing, that between 1-4% of unrelated men and women are living together in informal unions (the figure made difficult to obtain by the difficulty in framing the question), that 15 million adults live alone, and that only 67% of children live with their own once-married parents. About 33% of births are premaritally conceived. The median age for mothers at birth of last child has moved downward from 33 years in the early 1900s to about 30 years. Childbearing has declined from 3.9 children per mother in the early 1900s to 2.5. The period of childbearing has been compressed to about 7 years, between ages 23-30. 10% of remarried women's children are born between marriages. 50% of pregnancies end in abortion. It was found that persons who had completed an educational level, whether it be high school or college, generally had more stable marriages; those who had not completed a level were more likely to get divorced. Despite changes in lifestyle, however, some typical family situations are experienced by most Americans. 2 of 3 marriages will last until death of 1 of the partners and most young women questioned in census surveys expect 2 children.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

American family: looking good

The American family is becoming stronger because marriage and parenthood are becoming options, not mandates. Previously nearly 95% of Americans were married, a higher percentage than any other country except India. Often people become parents for the wrong reasons, such as parents of the couple wanted grandchildren or the feeling that one must have a baby to have meaning in life. Later marriage is seen as eventually lowering the divorce rate because adults will be mature. Increased use of contraception, and abortion as a last resort, is reducing the number of unplanned, unwanted children who may be abused. Reminders of the motherhood mandate are traditional houses in the suburbs far from jobs. Traditionally commuting times for women have been less than for men, presumably to allow them to spend more time with the children. It is also suggested that schools give realistic courses on parenting and emphasize that having children is not for everyone.     

Cohabitation and marriage in the 1980s

Using cohabitation and marriage histories collected in 1985 from 23-year-old women and men, this study investigates the process of union formation, considering transitions from single life into cohabitation and marriage. The outcomes of cohabitation are also considered--both the dissolution of unions and the transformation of cohabiting unions into marriage. These data indicate that large proportions of men and women experience cohabitation fairly early in the life course. At the same time, many cohabiting unions are dissolved fairly quickly and numerous others are soon transformed into marriages. Thus even though cohabitation will be experienced by many, most people will continue to spend substantially more time in marital unions than in cohabiting unions.     

The relative stability of cohabiting and marital unions for children

Children are increasingly born into cohabiting parent families, but we know little to date about the implications of this family pattern for children's lives. We examine whether children born into premarital cohabitation and first marriages experience similar rates of parental disruption, and whether marriage among cohabiting parents enhances union stability. These issues are important because past research has linked instability in family structure with lower levels of child well-being. Drawing on the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, we find that white, black and Hispanic children born to cohabiting parents experience greater levels of instability than children born to married parents. Moreover, black and Hispanic children whose cohabiting parents marry do not experience the same levels of family stability as those born to married parents; among white children, however, the marriage of cohabiting parents raises levels of family stability to that experienced by children born in marriage. The findings from this paper contribute to the debate about the benefits of marriage for children.     

Strategic non-marital cohabitation: theory and empirical implications

Non-marital cohabitation is a rapidly growing global phenomenon. Prior literature examines the puzzling empirical regularity that premarital cohabitation is associated with higher divorce rates. Since cohabitation should yield improved match-quality information, one might expect the opposite. This result, and its recent weakening, have been explored empirically and produced theoretically using matching models. In this paper, we develop an intra-household bargaining model of alternative dating and cohabitation paths to marriage in which higher relationship exit costs for cohabitors relative to daters generates the observed higher divorce rate. We also show that asymmetric exit costs can produce rejection and generate exits that would not otherwise occur. In addition, we show that even when cohabitors have lower average marriage quality, expected utility for a given match quality is higher, and some utility enhancing marriages that would not have taken place without cohabitation will occur in its presence.     

Changing compatibility of cohabitation and childbearing between young British women born in 1958 and 1970

We investigate the effect of parenthood on whether non-marital unions led to marriage or parting for two cohorts of British women when they were aged between 16 and 29. We compare the effect of conceptions leading to births and the presence and characteristics of children on the odds that a cohabitation was dissolved, or that it was converted to marriage, for women born in 1958 and 1970. A multilevel, multiprocess, competing-risks model allows for multiple cohabitation per woman and endogeneity of fertility status. We find that cohabiting couples' response to impending parenthood and the presence of children changed over time. In particular, the proportion of cohabiting couples who married before a birth decreased and, in the 1970 cohort only, the risk of dissolution declined during pregnancy. There is also evidence that the presence of a child cemented a cohabiting union for women from the 1970, but not the earlier, cohort.     

Marriage Patterns And Cumulative Fertility In West Malaysia: 1966–1967

Differentials in age at first marriage and being married more than once are discussed for a probability sample of West Malaysian currently married women 15-44 years of age. Both marriage ages and the incidence of multiple marriages vary greatly by race, place of current residence, wife's education, and husband's occupation; and the marriage variables are shown to have significant effects on the cumulative fertility of West Malaysian women. Early marriage leads to higher cumulative fertility and multiple marriages lead to lower cumulative fertility. Since the social groups with the highest proportions of early marriages are also those with the highest incidence of multiple marriages, the marriage variables explain some but not all of the variance in cumulative fertility for West Malaysian social groups. After adjustment for the effects of the marriage variables, rural Indian or Pakistani women still have the highest cumulative fertility and urban Chinese women with more than five years of schooling still have the lowest cumulative fertility.     

The disappearing link between premarital cohabitation and subsequent marital stability, 1970–2001

Previous research has demonstrated that marriages preceded by premarital cohabitation have higher rates of dissolution than those in which the couple marry without first living together. Most of this research relies on data generated by couples who cohabited in the 1970s and early 1980s when premarital cohabitation was relatively uncommon and usually of brief duration. Since then, premarital cohabitation in Australia has become normative and thus less prone to selection effects. The period of premarital cohabitation has also lengthened and is thus more likely to provide opportunities to screen out unviable matches. This paper uses national survey data from Australia to explore whether, in the light of these changes, the previously observed higher level of marital dissolution among those who live together before marrying has persisted. It demonstrates that the higher risk of marital dissolution among those who cohabited before marriage has declined substantially in the 1990s marriage cohort and, after controlling for selection factors, has disappeared altogether.