The covariance structure of sequential forecasts obtained by regression analysis

A method is presented for evaluating the covariance matrix of a set of sequential forecasts obtained by regression analysis. The matrix can be used to derive the relation between the variance of the forecasts on the one hand, and the lead times between the forecasting time and the time at which the forecasted variables are realized, on the other hand. The determination of this relation is important whenever the optimal frequency of forecasting must be determined.     

A new class of probability distributions via cosine and sine functions with applications

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we introduce a new class of (probability) distributions, based on a cosine-sine transformation, obtained by compounding a baseline distribution with cosine and sine functions. Some of its properties are explored. A special focus is given to a particular cosine-sine transformation using the exponential distribution as baseline. Estimations of parameters of a particular cosine-sine exponential distribution are performed via the maximum likelihood estimation method. A simulation study investigates the performances of these estimates. Applications are given for four real data sets, showing a better fit in comparison to some existing distributions based on some goodness-of-fit tests.     

Monte carlo estimates of the distributions of the random polygons of the voronoi tessellation with respect to a poisson process

A large-scale study, in which two million random Voronoi polygons (with respect to a homogeneous Poisson point process) were generated and mensurated, is described. The polygon characteristics recorded are number of sides (or vertices), perimeter, area and interior angles. A feature is the efficient “quantile” method of replicating Poisson-type random structures, which it is hoped may find useful application elsewhere.     

Abel series distributions with applications to fluctuations of sample functions of stochastic processes

A two-parameter class of discrete distributions, Abel series distributions, generated by expanding a suitable pa,rametric function into a series of Abel polynomials is discussed. An Abel series distribution occurs in fluctuations of sample functions of stochastic processes and has applications in insurance risk, queueing, dam and storage processes. The probability generating function and the factorial moments of the Abel series distributions are obtained in closed forms. It is pointed out that the name of the generalized Poisson distribution of Consul and Jain is justified by the form of its generating function. Finally it is shown that this generalized Poisson distribution is the only member of the Abel series distributions which is closed under convolution.     

Families of power series distributions,with particular reference to the Lerch family

The paper revisits the concept of a power series distribution by defining its series function, its power parameter, and hence its probability generating function. Realization that the series function for a particular distribution is a special case of a recognized mathematical function enables distributions to be classified into families. Examples are the generalized hypergeometric family and the q-series family, both of which contain generalizations of the geometric distribution. The Lerch function (a third generalization of the geometric series) is the series function for the Lerch family. A list of distributions belonging to the Lerch family is provided.     

Testing the equality of diagnostic effectiveness of one measure with respect to k different features

In several cases the same measurement is used as a marker for two or more population features, and it is useful to test whether this measurement has the same diagnostic effectiveness with respect to different features. In this paper we use the area under receiver operating characteristic curve as index for the discriminatory power among continuous variables and population features (eventuality, two or more diseases), and we propose a test to contrast the equality of the diagnostic effectiveness of this measurement.