Analysis of seasonal level shift (SLS) detection in SARIMA models

This study aims at exploring correct identification of seasonal outliers using most commonly applied test statistics. We evaluate the performance of seasonal level shift (SLS) by means of empirical level of significance, power of the test for sensitivity in detecting changes, and the vulnerability to masking of outliers by misspecification frequencies. We observe that the size of SLS affects the sampling distribution of η_SLS (test statistics for SLS detection) in case of SAR (1) and SMA (1) model. The empirical critical values for 1%, 5%, and 10% upper percentiles are higher than the usual cut off points and the empirical level of significance is inversely related to sample size and the model coefficients. The empirical power of the test statistics is not satisfactory at small sample size, and for large model coefficient. η_SLS gets confused with IO. The potential list of types of outliers should retain both IO and SLS as a part of outlier detection procedure for most efficient results. We apply the method suggested by Kaiser and Maravall with five possible types of outliers, that is, AO, IO, LS, TC, and SLS, to a number of quarterly and monthly time series data from Pakistan.     

Evaluating lifetime performance for the Pareto model with censored and imprecise information

A lifetime capability index L _tp has been proposed to measure the business lifetime performance, wherein output lifetime measurements are assumed to be precise from the Pareto model with censored information. In the present study, we study a more realistic situation where the lifetime output data are imprecise. The approach developed by Buckley [Fuzzy system, Soft Comput. 9 (2005), pp. 757–760; Fuzzy statistics: Regression and prediction, Soft Comput. 9 (2005), pp. 769–775] incorporated with some extensions (a set of confidence intervals, one on top of the other), is used to construct the triangular-shaped fuzzy number for the fuzzy estimate of the L _tp. With the sampling distribution of the unbiased estimator of the L _tp, two useful fuzzy inference criteria, its critical value and fuzzy p-value are obtained to assess the lifetime performance. The presented methodology can handle the lifetime performance assessment on the condition that sample lifetime data are involved with imprecise information, classifying the lifetime performance with the three-decision rule. With different preset requirements and a certain degree of imprecise data, we also develop a four quadrants decision-making plot where managers can easily simultaneously visualize several important features of lifetime performance for making a decision. An example of business lifetime data is given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method.     

Modified kolmogorov-smirnov tests of goodness of fit

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K–S) one-sided and two-sided tests of goodness of fit based on the test statistics D⁺ _n D^? _n and D_n are equivalent to tests based on taking the cumulative probability of the i–th order statistic of a sample of size n to be (i–.5)/n. Modified test statistics C⁺ _n, C^? _n and C_n are obtained by taking the cumulative probability to be i/(n+l). More generally, the cumula-tive probability may be taken to be (i?δ)/(n+l?2δ), as suggested by Blom (1958), where 0 less than or equal δ less than or equal .5. Critical values of the test statis-tics can be found by interpolating inversely in tables of the proba-bility integrals obtained by setting a=l/(n+l?2δ) in an expression given by Pyke (1959). Critical values for the D's (corresponding to δ=.5) have been tabulated to 5DP by Miller (1956) for n=1(1)100. The authors have made analogous tabulations for the C's (corresponding to δ=0) [previously tabulated by Durbin (1969) for n=1(1)60(2)100] and for the test statistics E⁺ _n, E^? _n and E_n corresponding to δ f.3. They have also made a Monte Carlo comparison of the power of the modified tests with that of the K–S test for several hypothetical distributions. In a number of cases, the power of the modified tests is greater than that of the K–S test, especially when the standard deviation is greater under the alternative than under the null hypo-thesis.     

Generalized Sobol sensitivity indices for dependent variables: numerical methods

The hierarchically orthogonal functional decomposition of any measurable function η of a random vector X=(X₁,?…?, X_p) consists in decomposing η(X) into a sum of increasing dimension functions depending only on a subvector of X. Even when X₁,?…?, X_p are assumed to be dependent, this decomposition is unique if the components are hierarchically orthogonal. That is, two of the components are orthogonal whenever all the variables involved in one of the summands are a subset of the variables involved in the other. Setting Y=η(X), this decomposition leads to the definition of generalized sensitivity indices able to quantify the uncertainty of Y due to each dependent input in X [Chastaing G, Gamboa F, Prieur C. Generalized Hoeffding–Sobol decomposition for dependent variables – application to sensitivity analysis. Electron J Statist. 2012;6:2420–2448]. In this paper, a numerical method is developed to identify the component functions of the decomposition using the hierarchical orthogonality property. Furthermore, the asymptotic properties of the components estimation is studied, as well as the numerical estimation of the generalized sensitivity indices of a toy model. Lastly, the method is applied to a model arising from a real-world problem.     

A simple diagnostic method of outlier detection for stationary Gaussian time series

In this paper we present a "model free' method of outlier detection for Gaussian time series by using the autocorrelation structure of the time series. We also present a graphic diagnostic method in order to distinguish an additive outlier (AO) from an innovation outlier (IO). The test statistic for detecting the outlier has a χ ² distribution with one degree of freedom. We show that this method works well when the time series contain either one type of the outliers or both additive and innovation type outliers, and this method has the advantage that no time series model needs to be estimated from the data. Simulation evidence shows that different types of outliers can be graphically distinguished by using the techniques proposed.     

Likelihood ratio tests for testing for multiple contaminants in the shocks and labelled slippage models

In the literature related to the study of lifelengths of experimental units, little attention has been paid to the models where shocks to the units generate outliers. In the present article, we consider a situation where n experimental units under investigation receive shocks at several time points. The parameter values of the lifelength distribution may change due to each shock, resulting in the generation of outliers. We derive the likelihood ratio test statistic to investigate if the shocks have significantly altered the parameter values. We also derive a likelihood ratio test under the labelled slippage alternative with multiple contaminations. Monte Carlo studies have been carried out to investigate the power of the proposed test statistics.     

Detecting outliers in GARCH(p,q) models

This article is concerned with the outliers in GARCH models. An iterative procedure is given for testing the presence of any type of the four common outliers. Since the distribution of test statistic cannot be obtained analytically, its distributional behavior is investigated via a simulation study. The simulation study is based on estimation of residuals standard deviation (σ_ν), which are obtained using two methods, median absolute deviation method (MAD), and omit-one method. The proposed procedure is employed for testing the presence of outliers in weekly light oil price Indexes of Iran during 1997 to 2010.     

Expected and unexpected values of individual Mahalanobis distances

This paper derives first-order sampling moments of individual Mahalanobis distances (MDs) in cases when the dimension p of the variable is proportional to the sample size n. Asymptotic expected values when n, p → ∞ are derived under the assumption p/n → c,?0 ? c < 1. It is shown that some types of standard estimators remain unbiased in this case, while others are asymptotically biased, a property that appears to be unnoticed in the literature. Second-order moments are also supplied to give some additional insight to the matter.     

Within groups analysis of covariance: multiple comparisons at specified design points using a robust measure location when there is curvature

Consider the situation where measurements are taken at two different times and let M_j(x) be some conditional robust measure of location associated with the random variable Y at time j, given that some covariate X=x. The goal is to test H₀: M₁(x)=M₂(x) for each x∈ x₁,?…?, x_K such that the probability of one or more Type I errors is less than α, where x₁,?…?, x_K are K specified values of the covariate. The paper reports simulation results comparing two methods aimed at accomplishing this goal without specifying some parametric form for the regression line. The first method is based on a simple modification of the method in Wilcox [Introduction to robust estimation and hypothesis testing. 3rd ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press; 2012, Section 11.11.1]. The main result here is that the second method, which has never been studied, can have higher power, sometimes substantially so. Data from the Well Elderly 2 study, which motivated this paper, are used to illustrate that the alternative approach can make a practical difference. Here, the estimate of M_j(x) is based in part on either a 20% trimmed mean or the Harrell–Davis quantile estimator, but in principle the more successful method can be used with any robust location estimator.     

Moments of Order Statistics from Weibull Distribution in the Presence of Multiple Outliers

In this article, we derive exact expressions for the single and product moments of order statistics from Weibull distribution under the contamination model. We assume that X₁, X₂, …, X_{n ? p} are independent with density function f(x) while the remaining, p observations (outliers) X_{n ? p + 1}, …, X_n are independent with density function arises from some modified version of f(x), which is called g(x), in which the location and/or scale parameters have been shifted in value. Next, we investigate the effect of the outliers on the BLUE of the scale parameter. Finally, we deduce some special cases.     

Prediction Intervals for Future Order Statistics from a Generalized Modified Weibull

Viewing the future order statistics as latent variables at each Gibbs sampling iteration, several Bayesian approaches to predict future order statistics based on type-II censored order statistics, X₍₁₎, X₍₂₎, …, X_(r), of a size n( > r) random sample from a four-parameter generalized modified Weibull (GMW) distribution, are studied. Four parameters of the GMW distribution are first estimated via simulation study. Then various Bayesian approaches, which include the plug-in method, the Monte Carlo method, the Gibbs sampling scheme, and the MCMC procedure, are proposed to develop the prediction intervals of unobserved order statistics. Finally, four type-II censored samples are utilized to investigate the predictions.     

Two-stage chain sampling plans chsp-(0,2) and chsp-(l,2) - part 1

This article outlines the structure of a generalized family of two-stage chain sampling plans, extending the concept of two-stage chain sampling plans of Dodge and Stephens (1966) which is an extension of the original work of Dodge (1955). Expressions are derived for the OC curves for two-stage chain sampling plans with (c₁,c₂) = (0,2) and (1,2). In the original work of Dodge (1955) only acceptance numbers of 0,1 were used and in the extension work of Dodge and Stephens (1966) acceptance numbers of (c₁,c₂) = (0,1), (0,2), (1,2), (0,3), (1,3), (0,4) and (1,4) were used with selected sets of values of k₁ and k₂ (the number of lots considered for cumulation in the first and second stage respectively). In this paper the OC curves are derived more generally for any k₁ and k₂combination for two-stage chain sampling plans with (c₁,c₂) = (0,2) and (1,2) and comparisons are made with respect to sample sizes and discriminating power, with the corresponding single and double sampling plans.     

A note on determining the number of outliers in an exponential sample by least squares procedure

In this paper, we suggest a least squares procedure for the determination of the number of upper outliers in an exponential sample by minimizing sample mean squared error. Moreover, the method can reduce the masking or “swamping” effects. In addition, we have also found that the least squares procedure is easy and simple to compute than test test procedure T _k suggested by Zhang (1998) for determining the number of upper outliers, since Zhang (1998) need to use the complicated null distribution of T _k . Moreover, we give three practical examples and a simulated example to illustrate the procedures. Further, simulation studies are given to show the advantages of the proposed method. Finally, the proposed least squares procedure can also determine the number of upper outliers in other continuous univariate distributions (for example, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, etc.). Received: May 10, 1999; revised version: June 5, 2000     

Methods for calculating stationary distribution in linear models of time series

The article deals with methods for computing the stationary marginal distribution in linear models of time series. Two approaches are described. First, an algorithm based on approximation of solution of the corresponding integral equation is briefly reviewed. Then, we study the limit behaviour of the partial sums c ₁ η₁+c ₂ η₂+···+c _n η _n where η _i are i.i.d. random variables and c _i real constants. We generalize procedure of Haiman (1998) [Haiman, G., 1998, Upper and lower bounds for the tail of the invariant distribution of some AR(1) processes. Asymptotic Methods in Probability and Statistics, 45, 723–730.] to an arbitrary causal linear process and relax the assumptions of his result significantly. This is achieved by investigating the properties of convolution of densities.     

Inference for Random Coefficient INAR(1) Process Based on Frequency Domain Analysis

In this article, we present the explicit expressions for the higher-order moments and cumulants of the first-order random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive (RCINAR(1)) process. The spectral and bispectral density functions are also obtained, which can characterize the RCINAR(1) process in the frequency domain. We use a frequency domain approach which is named Whittle criterion to estimate the parameters of the process. We propose a test statistic which is based on the frequency domain approach for the hypothesis test, H₀: α = 0?H₁: 0 < α < 1, where α is the mean of the random coefficient in the process. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is obtained. We compare the proposed test statistic with other statistics that can test serial dependence in time series of count via a typically numerical simulation, which indicates that our proposed test statistic has a good power.     

Lower percentage points of hartley's extremal quotient statistic and their applications

Consider K(>2) independent populations π₁,..,π _k such that observations obtained from π _k are independent and normally distributed with unknown mean µ _i and unknown variance θ _i i = 1,…,k. In this paper, we provide lower percentage points of Hartley's extremal quotient statistic for testing an interval hypothesisH ₀ θ _[k] θ _[k] > δ vs. H _a : θ _[k] θ _[1] ≤ δ , where δ ≥ 1 is a predetermined constant and θ _[k](θ _[1]) is the max (min) of the θ_i,…,θ _k . The least favorable configuration (LFC) for the test under H ₀ is determined in order to obtain the lower percentage points. These percentage points can also be used to construct an upper confidence bound for θ_[k]/θ_[1].     

The Evaluation of the Performance of IPWGEE,a Simulation Study

This article compares two recently proposed test statistics for unobserved cluster effects (C, SSR _w ) with three statistics frequently mentioned in panel econometrics (BP, SLM, F). Simulations include data generating processes with a cluster-level explanatory variable, scenarios with unequally sized clusters, processes that have an incorrectly specified cluster structure, and processes that have no cluster structure but rather spatial correlation. All but the F test exhibit small-sample deviation from the asymptotic distribution. The SLM, F, and SSR _w tests show equivalent power when cluster sizes are balanced. SLM has greatest power when cluster sizes are unbalanced.     

Critical values of Mandel’s h and k, the Grubbs and the Cochran test statistic

According to ISO 5725-2 (1994), measurement results obtained in an interlaboratory experiment are inspected for consistency by plotting Mandel’s h and k statistics and for outliers by application of the Grubbs test and the Cochran test. Critical values of these statistics for significance levels α=5% and α=1% and for some numbers p of laboratories and n of repeated measurements in the laboratories are supplied in ISO 5725-2 without reference to methods for their calculation. In this paper, exact formulae for the critical values of Mandel’s h and k and approximate formulae for the critical values of the Single Grubbs test, the Double Grubbs test and the Cochran test are derived.     

Rank‐based estimate of four‐parameter logistic model

During drug development, the calculation of inhibitory concentration that results in a response of 50% (IC₅₀) is performed thousands of times every day. The nonlinear model most often used to perform this calculation is a four‐parameter logistic, suitably parameterized to estimate the IC₅₀ directly. When performing these calculations in a high‐throughput mode, each and every curve cannot be studied in detail, and outliers in the responses are a common problem. A robust estimation procedure to perform this calculation is desirable. In this paper, a rank‐based estimate of the four‐parameter logistic model that is analogous to least squares is proposed. The rank‐based estimate is based on the Wilcoxon norm. The robust procedure is illustrated with several examples from the pharmaceutical industry. When no outliers are present in the data, the robust estimate of IC₅₀ is comparable with the least squares estimate, and when outliers are present in the data, the robust estimate is more accurate. A robust goodness‐of‐fit test is also proposed. To investigate the impact of outliers on the traditional and robust estimates, a small simulation study was conducted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting Outliers in Gamma Distribution

Zerbet and Nikulin presented the new statistic Z _k for detecting outliers in exponential distribution. They also compared this statistic with Dixon's statistic D _k . In this article, we extend this approach to gamma distribution and compare the result with Dixon's statistic. The results show that the test based on statistic Z _k is more powerful than the test based on the Dixon's statistic.