Do immigrants working illegally reduce the natives' legal employment? Evidence from Italy

The paper uses estimates, provided by the Central Statistical Office, of standard units of labour to examine how immigrants working (illegally) in the shadow economy affect the employment of (legal) labour in the official economy. The results of our cross sector-time series analysis of the demand for legal labour in the Italian economy between 1980 and 1995 show that the increase of illegal units of labour produces a reduction in the use of legal labour, albeit a very limited one. An analysis by sectors shows that the competitive effect of illegal foreign workers is not homogeneous and is strongest in the agricultural sector, while complementarity between the two categories of labour is evident in the non-tradable services sector. Furthermore, when the effects of illegal foreign and illegal native workers are compared, the former is smaller than the latter one, with illegal foreigners workers just reinforcing the impact of the illegal nationals on the labour market. Received: 27 June 1997/Accepted: 31 August 1998     

Dynamics of immigration control

This paper examines the dynamic implications of border control policies and internal enforcement measures for the pattern of illegal immigration and the sectoral allocation of clandestine foreign workers. It is argued that efforts to control illegal immigration in sectors where they traditionally find employment may trigger the formation of networks supporting clandestine foreign workers in new locations and occupations where the probability of detection is relatively lower. The end result may be an increase in the overall stock of illegal immigrants residing in the economy. Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 4 December 1997     

Illegal immigration,deportation policy,and the optimal timing of return

Countries with strict immigration policies often resort to deportation measures to reduce their stocks of illegal immigrants. Many of their undocumented foreign workers, however, are not deported but rather choose to return home voluntarily. This paper studies the optimizing behavior of undocumented immigrants who continuously face the risk of deportation, modeled by a stochastic process, and must decide how long to remain in the host country. It is found that the presence of uncertainty with respect to the length of stay abroad unambiguously reduces the desired migration duration and may trigger a voluntary return when a permanent stay would otherwise be optimal. Voluntary return is motivated by both economic and psychological factors. Calibration of the model to match the evidence on undocumented Thai migrants in Japan suggests that the psychological impact of being abroad as an illegal alien may be equivalent to as large as a 68 % cut in the consumption rate at the point of return.     

An international labour migration to developing countries in Asia: a case study of Korea

This study is based on a random sample of 431 temporary migrant workers from developing countries in Korea. Interviews were conducted from mid-October 1995 to mid-March 1996 with 105 Pakistanis, 77 Filipinos, 71 Sri Lankans, 67 Bangladeshi, 40 Indonesians, 26 individuals from Myanmar, 22 Chinese, 16 Nepalese, 2 Iranians, 2 Kazakstanians, 1 Malaysian, 1 Vietnamese, and 1 Ghanaian. Migration follows legal and illegal patterns. Legal trainee migrants leave before their contract time due to low pay, inadequate living conditions, forced overtime work, and lack of freedom. Trainees tend to be ethnic Koreans born in China and Chinese nationals. The number of illegal migrants is increasing. Foreign workers gain entry illegally through smuggling networks and legally through industrial work or tourist visas. Sample data reveal that the average age ranged from 26 to 32 years. Almost 70% were unmarried, and most were males. Filipinos tended to be older and show gender and marital balance. Age, marital status, religion, and education varied widely by ethnic group. Indonesians and Sri Lankans had lower household income than Pakistanis and Filipinos. Pakistanis tended to come from larger families. Total travel costs ranged from $3000 to $5000. Korea is one of four rapidly developing countries that shifted from being a major exporter of labor to a major importer of workers. Shortages of workers accompanied the shift. This case study illustrates that the traditional structural paradigm does not explain some unique features of international labor migration (ILM) in Asia, including the encouragement of illegal migration. The clandestine networks are different from those in developed countries. State policies mediate the flow of ILM.     

Legal and illegal immigrants: an analysis of optimal saving behavior

Savings of guest workers as well as of undocumented migrants represent important inflows of foreign exchange for some developing countries. This paper compares the saving behavior of these two types of migrants, assuming that the former are authorized to work abroad for a specific period of time, while the latter can stay until apprehended and deported by the immigration authorities. Due to the risk of deportation, the saving rate of an illegal immigrant is found to be initially above that of a documented migrant. This precautionary saving phenomenon is, however, short-lived. A key finding of the paper is that the total repatriated assets of an illegal migrant are always lower than those of a documented worker, provided that their duration of stay abroad is identical. This is because the undocumented migrant’s saving rate falls over time as her expected lifetime earnings are adjusted upwards every day that she avoids apprehension.     

Undocumented workers in the labor market: an analysis of the earnings of legal and illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States

This paper studies the differences in earnings between Mexican legal and illegal immigrants in the United States. The analysis includes a cross-sectional examination of the wage differences between legal and undocumented workers as well as a longitudinal analysis examining the impact of legalization on the earnings of previously-undocumented workers. It is shown that the average hourly wage rate of male Mexican legal immigrants in the United States was 41.8% higher than that of undocumented workers while female legal immigrants earned 40.8% more. Though illegal immigrants have lower education and English proficiency, and a shorter period of residence in the United States, than legal immigrants, it is shown that differences in the observed characteristics of legal and illegal immigrants explain only 48% of the log-wage gap between male legal and illegal workers and 43% of the gap for women. An analysis of undocumented immigrants legalized after the 1986 U.S. immigration policy reform shows significant wage growth in the four years following legalization. These gains are due mostly to the change in legal status itself, not to changes in the characteristics of immigrants over time. Received: 7 July 1997/Accepted: 16 March 1998     

Types of Temporary Employment: An 8-Year Follow-Up of Labour Market Attachment

This study aimed to find out how heterogeneous temporary employment is reflected in later labour market attachment. Using data from Finnish Quality of Work Life Surveys in 1990, 1997 and 2003 merged with an 8-year register follow-up, we compared permanent workers with three categories of temporary employees: substitutes, common fixed-term (e.g. project workers), and periphery (seasonal, on-call, temporary agency and employment subsidy) workers. First, we applied sequence analysis to identify the main activities at the end of each follow-up year for all employees with permanent and temporary contracts. On this basis, we formed six typical employment sequence clusters. Second, we performed multinomial logistic regression to find out whether there are statistically significant differences between temporary and permanent employees in terms of how they are divided between the sequence clusters. Four in five permanent employees were in stable employment over the following 8 years, compared to only two in five temporary periphery workers. The corresponding proportion for substitute workers was 70% and for common fixed-term workers 64%. Compared to permanent workers, those in common fixed-term or periphery temporary employment were more likely to become unemployed, whereas substitute workers were not. Our major finding is that periphery employment clearly increases the risk of being edged out of the labour market through retirement, especially on disability pension.     

Competition, substitution, or discretion: an analysis of Palestinian and foreign guest workers in the Israeli labor market

This paper investigates the effects of foreign workers on labor market outcomes for Palestinian workers in the Israeli labor market. The paper utilizes a micro-dataset on the Palestinian labor force combined with time-series data on foreign workers in Israel. The data covers the period 1999–2003, a period in which Israel enforced a strict closure on labor (and goods) movement, particularly in 2001 and 2002. The evidence suggests that foreign workers in Israel do not affect Palestinian employment; however, an increase in the number of foreign workers in Israel tends to reduce Israeli wages paid to Palestinian workers from the Gaza Strip. The Israeli closure policy appears to be the main cause for the substantial reduction in long-run Palestinian employment levels in Israel, not the presence of foreign workers.     

Mobility,Stagnation, or Attrition? Diverse Earning Trajectories in a Cohort of Foreign‐born Men

Researchers and policymakers frequently debate about the integration of immigrants into the US economy. These debates are often based on limited data that do not capture the diversity of immigrants who arrived in the later twentieth century. Related research has also struggled to incorporate the experience of short‐term immigrants or immigrants who move in and out of the labor force. Using records from the Social Security Administration, we track the complete cohort of foreign‐born men who received social security numbers in 1978 through their subsequent working years and characterize their earning trajectories. We find that the share of foreign‐born men with low earnings declined over time, mainly due to attrition from the formal labor force. We also show, for the first time, that immigrants’ employment and earning histories vary considerably by their countries of origin: while those from several countries in Asia and Africa experienced substantial earnings growth and tended to stay in the United States for the long term, men from Central America and the Caribbean experienced more stagnation and had high levels of temporary and permanent attrition from the formal labor force. We end by discussing the historical contingencies and socioeconomic contexts—in sending countries and the United States—that shaped these trajectories.     

Subjective and Occupational Well-Being in a Sample of Mexican Workers

This article examines the well-being of workers, observing that subjective and occupational well-being are interrelated but independent dimensions and analyzing their interaction with their modulating factors. Specifically, the relationships between well-being and personal value structures are examined, hypothesizing that congruence between personal and socially predominant values improves the well-being of workers. The influence of various occupational and personal factors is also analyzed. We studied 209 workers of a multinational company in Mexico using different standardized questionnaires. The results demonstrate that subjective and occupational well-being are related but are independent variables influenced by differentiated variables. Specifically, the occupational wellbeing of workers is influenced by the nature of their work, whereas subjective well-being is affected by their social values and level of education. We present a model for the interaction of these variables and their consequences with the intention of the worker to stay with or leave the company. We discuss some practical issues raised by the study and make recommendations for future.     

The Value of an Employment-Based Green Card

The need for and role of highly skilled immigrant workers in the U.S. economy is fiercely debated. Proponents and opponents agree that temporary foreign workers are paid a lower wage than are natives. This lower wage partly originates from the restricted mobility of workers while on a temporary visa. In this article, we estimate the wage gain to employment-based immigrants from acquiring permanent U.S. residency. We use data from the New Immigrant Survey (2003) and implement a difference-in-difference propensity score matching estimator. We find that for employer-sponsored immigrants, the acquisition of a green card leads to an annual wage gain of about $11,860.     

Empirical characteristics of legal and illegal immigrants in the USA

We combine the New Immigrant Survey (NIS), which contains information on US legal immigrants, with the American Community Survey (ACS), which contains information on legal and illegal immigrants to the USA. Using an econometric methodology proposed by Lancaster and Imbens (J Econ 71:145–160, 1996) we compute the probability for each observation in the ACS data to refer to an illegal immigrant, conditional on observed characteristics. These results are novel, since no other work has quantified the characteristics of illegal immigrants from a random sample representative of the population. Using these conditional probability weights on the ACS data, we are able to uncover some interesting facts on illegal immigrants. We find that, while illegal immigrants suffer a large wage penalty compared to legal immigrants at all education levels, the penalty decreases with education. We also find that the total fertility rate among illegal immigrant women is significantly higher than that among legal ones, in particular for middle and higher educated women. Looking at the sector of activity, we document that the sectors attracting most illegal immigrants are constructions and agriculture. We also generate empirical distributions for state of residence, country of origin, age, sex, and number of legal and illegal immigrants. Our forecasts for the aggregate distribution of legal and illegal characteristics match imputations by the Department of Homeland Security.     

Death at the Border: Efficacy and Unintended Consequences of US Immigration Control Policy

This article assesses the efficacy of the strategy of immigration control implemented by the US government since 1993 in reducing illegal entry attempts, and documents some of the unintended consequences of this strategy, especially a sharp increase in mortality among unauthorized migrants along certain segments of the Mexico–US border. The available data suggest that the current strategy of border enforcement has resulted in rechanneling flows of unauthorized migrants to more hazardous areas, raising fees charged by people‐smugglers, and discouraging unauthorized migrants already in the US from returning to their places of origin. However, there is no evidence that the strategy is deterring or preventing significant numbers of new illegal entries, particularly given the absence of a serious effort to curtail employment of unauthorized migrants through worksite enforcement. An expanded temporary worker program, selective legalization of unauthorized Mexican workers residing in the United States, and other proposals under consideration by the US and Mexican governments are unlikely to reduce migrant deaths resulting from the current strategy of border enforcement.     

Guestworker programs: Evidence from Europe and the United States and some implications for U.S. policy

Mounting concern in the United States over increased illegal migration from Mexico during the past decade has generated a heated policy debate and led to a number of proposals as to how the U.S. government should deal with the problem. Among these has been a call for a temporary worker program similar to the U.S.-sponsored Bracero Program (1942–1964) in which over 4 million Mexican workers were recruited to perform temporary agricultural labor in the southwestern United States. This article considers the implications of such a program by examining the social and economic effects of previous guestworker programs in the United States and western Europe from the perspective of both sending and receiving societies. Particular attention is paid to the efficacy of these programs in promoting temporary as opposed to long-term immigration of foreign workers as well as their developmental impact on sending countries.Now at 2405 Rayburn House Office Building, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington DC 20515.     

Up and on or down and out? Gender, immigration and the consequences of temporary employment in Canada

What happens to temporary workers when their jobs end? Is temporary employment a fleeting way station to a better job, or does it herald an ongoing cycle of precariousness? What are the implications of temporary employment dynamics for broader patterns of inequality in labour markets? European researchers have focused increasing attention on these issues in the context of concern about the relationship between inequality and insecurity in labour markets with strong regulatory protections for insiders. However, research on the outcomes of temporary employment in the less regulated labour markets of North America remains limited. This paper draws on rich representative panel data from Statistics Canada's Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) and competing risks Cox regression to assess the outcomes and dynamics of temporary employment in this understudied context. Key contributions include more precise estimates of transitions, consideration of multiple theoretically relevant outcomes (permanent jobs; new temporary jobs; and periods of unemployment and labour force withdrawal), and situation of the effect of gender and immigration status on temporary employment transitions in the context of the dynamics of permanent jobs. Findings present a more pessimistic picture of overall temporary job outcomes than prior research but suggest that the dynamics of temporary work do not magnify inequalities of gender and immigration status.     

Foreign and undocumented workers in California agriculture

In November 1986, the United States Congress passed the most sweeping reform of federal immigration laws in more than two decades. The major objective of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 is to curtail the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States. But the Act contains controversial provisions to assure agricultural producers who rely most heavily on illegal immigrants to harvest perishable crops that they will not suffer unfairly from changes in U.S. immigration laws. These special provisions for agriculture rest on two assumptions that heretofore have received little attention from researchers: (1) that agriculture now relies heavily on undocumented workers to harvest perishable crops, and (2) that growers hire undocumented labor because legal farmworkers are not available to work at wages growers can afford to pay. This paper presents preliminary findings from a study of the role of undocumented workers in California agriculture. The findings cast some doubt on the assumptions that undocumented workers are employed mostly in harvesting perishable crops and that growers hire illegal aliens because legal workers are not available. The analysis focuses on California because one-half of all undocumented immigrants in the United States are believed to live in this state.     

Maternity leave and the employment of new mothers in the United States

We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to examine the relationships between maternity leave coverage and U.S. womens post-birth leave taking and employment decisions from 1988 to 1996. We find that women who were employed before birth are working much more quickly post-birth than women who were not. We also find that, among mothers who were employed pre-birth, those in jobs that provided leave coverage are more likely to take a leave of up to 12 weeks, but return more quickly after 12 weeks. Our results suggest that maternity leave coverage is related to leave taking, as well as the length of time that a new mother stays home after a birth.All correspondence to: Jane Waldfogel. Funding for this project was provided by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the William T. Grant Foundation. We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Responsible editor: Daniel S. Hamermesh.     

The ambiguities of U.S. temporary foreign worker policy

Expansion of temporary worker programs has figured prominently in recent proposals to reform United States immigration policy. The Florida sugar cane industry has been using foreign workers from the English-speaking Caribbean since 1943. The 8000 to 9000 workers annually admitted under section H-2 of the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act to cut cane constitute the largest legal nonimmigrant labor force in the United States. Examination of the Florida H-2 program reveals that existing temporary worker policy is ambiguous, if not contradictory, on the issues of the displacement of domestic workers; the characteristics and value of H-2 workers; their impact on local communities in the United States; and the effects of seasonal labor migration on the migrant and his country. Suggestions for improving policy include strengthening of statutory guidelines and administrative agencies, adoption of a more market-sensitive adverse effect wage rate, making farm labor more attractive to American workers, removing distinctions between foreign and domestic workers, and measures to improve the lot of the migrant and his home society.This article is drawn from a study funded by a grant from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (R01-HD-14277-01). The Center for Latin American Studies and the Division of Sponsored Research of the University of Florida provided additional financial support for field work in the Caribbean. Fuller discussions of the results are found in McCoy (1984a), McCoy and Wood (1982) and Wood and McCoy (forthcoming). The author would like to acknowledge the suggestions of Jose Alvarez, Robert Bach, Marian Houston, Steve Sanderson and Charles Wood, his collaborator on the larger project. The comments of David North and especially Edwin Reubens on an earlier version, presented at the 1984 meeting of the American Political Science Association, are also appreciated.     

Immigration and free trade with Mexico: protecting American workers against double jeopardy

Free trade may well increase immigration from Mexico to the United States before ultimately slowing it down. Rapid population growth, unemployment or underemployment of half the labor force, and vast ethnic and kinship links to the United States have given Mexican migration a stubborn momentum. Increased prosperity from free trade will give many would-be migrants the means to resettle in the U. S. Foreign competition will displace Mexican workers in small farms, state-owned enterprises, and less competitive industries, forcing some to migrate. The noneconomic incentives and expectations driving migration will also remain strong. Mexicans may see free trade as making the border a mere formality or as conferring an entitlement to live in the United States. On the U. S. side, free trade may well deepen the government's traditional complacency about border controls. Over the long-term, however, a successful free trade agreement could reduce immigration by improving Mexico's democracy and the quality of life, diminishing the prospects of mass asylum movements from Mexico, creating a better climate for effective family planning, and luring marginal, immigration-magnet industries from the U. S. to Mexico. In the United States, less- skilled American workers in some industries and regions can expect job displacement and other disruptions from free trade. Particularly vulnerable will be workers in perishable crop agriculture, border retail trade, construction, apparel, and light manufacturing such as furniture, auto parts and glass. Continued heavy immigration of Mexican and other foreign workers into those industries and communities will further impede the adjustment of resident workers by competing for jobs and consuming public resources needed for retraining and job search. To ease the adjustment of displaced workers, the U. S. must make Mexico's cooperation in restraining immigration a condition for free trade. Mexico's cooperation should include enforcement of its own laws against clandestine border crossing; action against alien smugglers, document forgers and transiting illegal aliens from Central America; and curbs on the reentry of aliens deported from the United States. U.S. initiatives that would cushion vulnerable American workers against the added disruption of immigration would be: better identification and screening of applicants for public assistance; tightened enforcement of safety and labor standards in immigrant-impacted firms and provision of legal workers to such firms; protection of public assistance resources through better screening and identification of applicants; and curbs on imports of temporary foreign workers for firms that will now have access to Mexican labor in Mexico. Finally, the United States must consistently press Mexico for higher safety, environmental and labor standards at the workplace to improve the job satisfaction and quality of life of working Mexicans who might otherwise migrate, as well as to narrow Mexico's labor cost advantages over the United States.     

On financing the internal enforcement of illegal immigration policies

"We introduce a government budget constraint into an illegal immigration model, and show that the effect of increasing internal enforcement of immigration laws on the host country's disposable national income depends on the mix of employer fines and income taxation used to finance the added enforcement. These issues are addressed under alternative assumptions about (a) the ability of host country employers to discern between legal and illegal workers, and (b) host country labor market conditions. Empirical evidence for the United States indicates that the employer sanctions program may have had a negative impact on disposable national income."