The use of an identity in Anderson for multivariate multiple testing

Consider the model where there are I$I$ independent multivariate normal treatment populations with p×1$p\times 1$ mean vectors _μi${\mathit{\mu }}_i$, i=1,…,I$i=1,\dots ,I$, and covariance matrix Σ$\Sigma$. Independently the (I+1)$(I+1)$st population corresponds to a control and it too is multivariate normal with mean vector _μI+1${\mathit{\mu }}_{I+1}$ and covariance matrix Σ$\Sigma$. Now consider the following two multiple testing problems.     

Optimally robust credible sets with a class of priors

We determine a credible set A   that is the “best” with respect to the variation of the prior distribution in a neighborhood Γ$\Gamma$ of the starting prior _π0(θ)${\pi }_0(\theta )$. Among the class of sets with credibility γ$\gamma$ under _π0${\pi }_0$, the “optimally robust” set will be the one which maximizes the minimum probability of including θ$\theta$ as the prior varies over Γ$\Gamma$. This procedure is also Γ-minimax$\Gamma \text{-minimax}$ with respect to the risk function, probability of non-inclusion. We find the optimally robust credible set for three neighborhood classes Γ$\Gamma$, the ε-contamination$\epsilon \text{-contamination}$ class, the density ratio class and the density bounded class. A consequence of this investigation is that the maximum likelihood set is seen to be an optimal credible set from a robustness perspective.     

Confidence intervals in regression utilizing prior information

We consider a linear regression model with regression parameter β=(_β1,…,_βp)$\beta =({\beta }_1,\dots ,{\beta }_p)$ and independent and identically N(0,σ²)$N(0,{\sigma }^2)$ distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is θ=a^Tβ$\theta =a^T\beta$ where a$a$ is a specified vector. Define the parameter τ=c^Tβ-t$\tau =c^T\beta -t$ where the vector c$c$ and the number t$t$ are specified and a$a$ and c$c$ are linearly independent. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that τ=0$\tau =0$. We present a new frequentist 1-α$1-\alpha$ confidence interval for θ$\theta$ that utilizes this prior information. We require this confidence interval to (a) have endpoints that are continuous functions of the data and (b) coincide with the standard 1-α$1-\alpha$ confidence interval when the data strongly contradict this prior information. This interval is optimal in the sense that it has minimum weighted average expected length where the largest weight is given to this expected length when τ=0$\tau =0$. This minimization leads to an interval that has the following desirable properties. This interval has expected length that (a) is relatively small when the prior information about τ$\tau$ is correct and (b) has a maximum value that is not too large. The following problem will be used to illustrate the application of this new confidence interval. Consider a 2×2$2\times 2$ factorial experiment with 20 replicates. Suppose that the parameter of interest θ$\theta$ is a specified simple   effect and that we have uncertain prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. Our aim is to find a frequentist 0.95 confidence interval for θ$\theta$ that utilizes this prior information.     

Reduced-rank estimation of the difference between two covariance matrices

We consider m×m$m\times m$ covariance matrices, _Σ1${\Sigma }_1$ and _Σ2${\Sigma }_2$, which satisfy _Σ2-_Σ1=Δ${\Sigma }_2-{\Sigma }_1=\Delta$, where Δ$\Delta$ has a specified rank. Maximum likelihood estimators of _Σ1${\Sigma }_1$ and _Σ2${\Sigma }_2$ are obtained when sample covariance matrices having Wishart distributions are available and rank(Δ)$\text{rank}(\Delta )$ is known. The likelihood ratio statistic for a test about the value of rank(Δ)$\text{rank}(\Delta )$ is also given and some properties of its null distribution are obtained. The methods developed in this paper are illustrated through an example.     

A sequential design for a clinical trial with a linear prognostic factor

We study a randomized adaptive design to assign one of the L$L$ treatments to patients who arrive sequentially by means of an urn model. At each stage n$n$, a reward is distributed between treatments. The treatment applied is rewarded according to its response, 0?_Yn?1$0?Y_n?1$, and 1-_Yn$1-Y_n$ is distributed among the other treatments according to their performance until stage n-1$n-1$. Patients can be classified in K+1$K+1$ levels and we assume that the effect of this level in the response to the treatments is linear. We study the asymptotic behavior of the design when the ordinary least square estimators are used as a measure of performance until stage n-1$n-1$.     

Truncated linear estimation of a bounded multivariate normal mean

We consider the problem of estimating the mean θ$\theta$ of an _Np(θ,_Ip)${\mathrm{N}}_{\mathrm{p}}(\theta ,I_p)$ distribution with squared error loss ∥δ−θ∥²$\parallel \delta -\theta {\parallel }^2$ and under the constraint ∥θ∥≤m$\parallel \theta \parallel \le m$, for some constant m>0$m>0$. Using Stein's identity to obtain unbiased estimates of risk, Karlin's sign change arguments, and conditional risk analysis, we compare the risk performance of truncated linear estimators with that of the maximum likelihood estimator _δmle${\delta }_{\mathrm{mle}}$. We obtain for fixed (m,p)$(m,p)$ sufficient conditions for dominance. An asymptotic framework is developed, where we demonstrate that the truncated linear minimax estimator dominates _δmle${\delta }_{\mathrm{mle}}$, and where we obtain simple and accurate measures of relative improvement in risk. Numerical evaluations illustrate the effectiveness of the asymptotic framework for approximating the risks for moderate or large values of p.     

Distribution theory of quadratic forms for matrix multivariate elliptical distribution

This paper proposes the density and characteristic functions of a general matrix quadratic form X^(?)AX${\mathbf{X}}^{(?)}\mathbf{AX}$, when A=A^(?)$\mathbf{A}={\mathbf{A}}^{(?)}$ is a positive semidefinite matrix, X$\mathbf{X}$ has a matrix multivariate elliptical distribution and X^(?)${\mathbf{X}}^{(?)}$ denotes the usual conjugate transpose of X$\mathbf{X}$. These results are obtained for real normed division algebras. With particular cases we obtained the density and characteristic functions of matrix quadratic forms for matrix multivariate normal, Pearson type VII, t and Cauchy distributions.     

Lattice and Schröder paths with periodic boundaries

We consider paths in the plane with (1,0$1,0$), (0,1$0,1$), and (a,b$a,b$)-steps that start at the origin, end at height n$n$, and stay strictly to the left of a given non-decreasing right boundary. We show that if the boundary is periodic and has slope at most b/a$b/a$, then the ordinary generating function for the number of such paths ending at height n   is algebraic. Our argument is in two parts. We use a simple combinatorial decomposition to obtain an Appell relation or “umbral” generating function, in which the power zⁿ$z^n$ is replaced by a power series of the form zⁿ_φn(z),$z^n{\phi }_n(z),$ where _φn(0)=1.${\phi }_n(0)=1.$ Then we convert (in an explicit way) the umbral generating function to an ordinary generating function by solving a system of linear equations and a polynomial equation. This conversion implies that the ordinary generating function is algebraic. We give several concrete examples, including an alternative way to solve the tennis ball problem.     

On selecting a prior for the precision parameter of Dirichlet process mixture models

In hierarchical mixture models the Dirichlet process is used to specify latent patterns of heterogeneity, particularly when the distribution of latent parameters is thought to be clustered (multimodal). The parameters of a Dirichlet process include a precision parameter α$\alpha$ and a base probability measure _G0$G_0$. In problems where α$\alpha$ is unknown and must be estimated, inferences about the level of clustering can be sensitive to the choice of prior assumed for α$\alpha$. In this paper an approach is developed for computing a prior for the precision parameter α$\alpha$ that can be used in the presence or absence of prior information about the level of clustering. This approach is illustrated in an analysis of counts of stream fishes. The results of this fully Bayesian analysis are compared with an empirical Bayes analysis of the same data and with a Bayesian analysis based on an alternative commonly used prior.     

Optimality of the quasi-score estimator in a mean–variance model with applications to measurement error models

We consider a regression of y$y$ on x$x$ given by a pair of mean and variance functions with a parameter vector θ$\theta$ to be estimated that also appears in the distribution of the regressor variable x$x$. The estimation of θ$\theta$ is based on an extended quasi-score (QS) function. We show that the QS estimator is optimal within a wide class of estimators based on linear-in-y$y$ unbiased estimating functions. Of special interest is the case where the distribution of x$x$ depends only on a subvector α$\alpha$ of θ$\theta$, which may be considered a nuisance parameter. In general, α$\alpha$ must be estimated simultaneously together with the rest of θ$\theta$, but there are cases where α$\alpha$ can be pre-estimated. A major application of this model is the classical measurement error model, where the corrected score (CS) estimator is an alternative to the QS estimator. We derive conditions under which the QS estimator is strictly more efficient than the CS estimator.     

Optimal designs for threshold-determining limiting dilution assays

In common with other non-linear models, the optimal design for a limiting dilution assay (LDA) depends on the value of the unknown parameter, θ$\theta$, in the model. Consequently optimal designs cannot be specified unless some assumptions are made about the possible values of θ$\theta$. If a prior distribution can be specified then a Bayesian approach can be adopted. A proper specification of the Bayesian approach requires the aim of the experiment to be described and quantified through an appropriate utility function. This paper addresses the problem of finding optimal designs for LDAs when the aim is to determine whether θ$\theta$ is above or below a specified threshold, _θ0${\theta }_0$.     

Optimal global rates of convergence for nonparametric regression with unbounded data

Estimation of regression functions from independent and identically distributed data is considered. The _L2$L_2$ error with integration with respect to the design measure is used as an error criterion. Usually in the analysis of the rate of convergence of estimates a boundedness assumption on the explanatory variable X$X$ is made besides smoothness assumptions on the regression function and moment conditions on the response variable Y$Y$. In this article we consider the kernel estimate and show that by replacing the boundedness assumption on X$X$ by a proper moment condition the same (optimal) rate of convergence can be shown as for bounded data. This answers Question 1 in Stone [1982. Optimal global rates of convergence for nonparametric regression. Ann. Statist., 10, 1040–1053].