On multivariate nonlinear regression models with stationary correlated errors

In this paper we consider the statistical analysis of multivariate multiple nonlinear regression models with correlated errors, using Finite Fourier Transforms. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the weighted least squares estimates are established under various conditions on the regressor variables. These conditions involve different types of scalings, and the scaling factors are obtained explicitly for various types of nonlinear regression models including an interesting model which requires the estimation of unknown frequencies. The estimation of frequencies is a classical problem occurring in many areas like signal processing, environmental time series, astronomy and other areas of physical sciences. We illustrate our methodology using two real data sets taken from geophysics and environmental sciences. The data we consider from geophysics are polar motion (which is now widely known as “Chandlers Wobble”), where one has to estimate the drift parameters, the offset parameters and the two periodicities associated with elliptical motion. The data were first analyzed by Arato, Kolmogorov and Sinai who treat it as a bivariate time series satisfying a finite order time series model. They estimate the periodicities using the coefficients of the fitted models. Our analysis shows that the two dominant frequencies are 12 h and 410 days. The second example, we consider is the minimum/maximum monthly temperatures observed at the Antarctic Peninsula (Faraday/Vernadsky station). It is now widely believed that over the past 50 years there is a steady warming in this region, and if this is true, the warming has serious consequences on ecology, marine life, etc. as it can result in melting of ice shelves and glaciers. Our objective here is to estimate any existing temperature trend in the data, and we use the nonlinear regression methodology developed here to achieve that goal.     

Partially linear models and polynomial spline approximations for the analysis of unbalanced panel data

In this paper, we study the estimation of the unbalanced panel data partially linear models with a one-way error components structure. A weighted semiparametric least squares estimator (WSLSE) is developed using polynomial spline approximation and least squares. We show that the WSLSE is asymptotically more efficient than the corresponding unweighted estimator for both parametric and nonparametric components of the model. This is a significant improvement over previous results in the literature which showed that the simply weighting technique can only improve the estimation of the parametric component. The asymptotic normalities of the proposed WSLSE are also established.     

An alternative form of the Watson efficiency

Watson [1951. Serial correlation in regression analysis. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Experimental Statistics, North Carolina State College, Raleigh] introduced a relative efficiency, which is often called the Watson efficiency in literatures, to measure the inefficiency of the least squares in linear regression models. The Watson efficiency is defined by determinant, but we shall show by two examples that such a criterion does not always work well in some cases. In this paper, an alternative form based on Euclidean norm of the Watson efficiency is proposed and some examples are given to illustrate superiority of the new relative efficiency.     

Large sample interval mapping method for genetic trait loci in finite regression mixture models

This article investigates the large sample interval mapping method for genetic trait loci (GTL) in a finite non-linear regression mixture model. The general model includes most commonly used kernel functions, such as exponential family mixture, logistic regression mixture and generalized linear mixture models, as special cases. The populations derived from either the backcross or intercross design are considered. In particular, unlike all existing results in the literature in the finite mixture models, the large sample results presented in this paper do not require the boundness condition on the parametric space. Therefore, the large sample theory presented in this article possesses general applicability to the interval mapping method of GTL in genetic research. The limiting null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistics can be utilized easily to determine the threshold values or p-values required in the interval mapping. The limiting distribution is proved to be free of the parameter values of null model and free of the choice of a kernel function. Extension to the multiple marker interval GTL detection is also discussed. Simulation study results show favorable performance of the asymptotic procedure when sample sizes are moderate.     

On robust forecasting in dynamic vector time series models

In this article, robust estimation and prediction in multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) are considered. The conditional least squares (CLS) estimators are known to be non-robust when outliers occur. To obtain robust estimators, the method introduced in Duchesne [2005. Robust and powerful serial correlation tests with new robust estimates in ARX models. J. Time Ser. Anal. 26, 49–81] and Bou Hamad and Duchesne [2005. On robust diagnostics at individual lags using RA-ARX estimators. In: Duchesne, P., Rémillard, B. (Eds.), Statistical Modeling and Analysis for Complex Data Problems. Springer, New York] is generalized for VARX models. The asymptotic distribution of the new estimators is studied and from this is obtained in particular the asymptotic covariance matrix of the robust estimators. Classical conditional prediction intervals normally rely on estimators such as the usual non-robust CLS estimators. In the presence of outliers, such as additive outliers, these classical predictions can be severely biased. More generally, the occurrence of outliers may invalidate the usual conditional prediction intervals. Consequently, the new robust methodology is used to develop robust conditional prediction intervals which take into account parameter estimation uncertainty. In a simulation study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the robust prediction intervals under several scenarios for the occurrence of the outliers, and the new intervals are compared to non-robust intervals based on classical CLS estimators.     

On statistical models for multimodal optimization

A new approach for the construction of statistical models for multimodal optimization is proposed; the examples of such models are given. The results of the psychological experiment show that the proposed approach is intuitively acceptable.     

Collapsibility of regression coefficients and its extensions

Collapsibility with respect to a measure of association implies that the measure of association can be obtained from the marginal model. We first discuss model collapsibility and collapsibility with respect to regression coefficients for linear regression models. For parallel regression models, we give simple and different proofs of some of the known results and obtain also certain new results. For random coefficient regression models, we define (average) A$A$-collapsibility and obtain conditions under which it holds. We consider Poisson regression and logistic regression models also, and derive conditions for collapsibility and A$A$-collapsibility, respectively. These results generalize some of the results available in the literature. Some suitable examples are also discussed.     

Generalized partially linear varying-coefficient models

Generalized varying-coefficient models are useful extensions of generalized linear models. They arise naturally when investigating how regression coefficients change over different groups characterized by certain covariates such as age. In this paper, we extend these models to generalized partially linear varying-coefficient models, in which some coefficients are constants and the others are functions of certain covariates. Procedures for estimating the linear and non-parametric parts are developed and their associated statistical properties are studied. The methods proposed are illustrated using some simulations and real data analysis.     

Variance estimation in the central limit theorem for Markov chains

This article concerns the variance estimation in the central limit theorem for finite recurrent Markov chains. The associated variance is calculated in terms of the transition matrix of the Markov chain. We prove the equivalence of different matrix forms representing this variance. The maximum likelihood estimator for this variance is constructed and it is proved that it is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The main part of our analysis consists in presenting closed matrix forms for this new variance. Additionally, we prove the asymptotic equivalence between the empirical and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the stationary distribution.     

Design selection criteria for discrimination/estimation for nested models and a binomial response

The aim of an experiment is often to enable discrimination between competing forms for a response model. We investigate the selection of a continuous design for a non-sequential strategy when there are two competing generalized linear models for a binomial response, with a common link function and the linear predictor of one model nested within that of the other. A new criterion, _TE$T_E$-optimality, is defined, based on the difference in the deviances from the two models, and comparisons are made with T$T$-, _Ds$D_s$- and D$D$-optimality. Issues are raised through the study of two examples in which designs are assessed using simulation studies of the power to reject the null hypothesis of the smaller model being correct, when the data are generated from the larger model. Parameter estimation for discrimination designs is also discussed and a simple method is investigated of combining designs to form a hybrid design in order to achieve both model discrimination and estimation. This method has a computational advantage over the use of a compound criterion and the similar performance of the designs obtained from the two approaches is illustrated in an example.     

Pair‐copula constructions for non‐Gaussian DAG models

We propose a new type of multivariate statistical model that permits non‐Gaussian distributions as well as the inclusion of conditional independence assumptions specified by a directed acyclic graph. These models feature a specific factorisation of the likelihood that is based on pair‐copula constructions and hence involves only univariate distributions and bivariate copulas, of which some may be conditional. We demonstrate maximum‐likelihood estimation of the parameters of such models and compare them to various competing models from the literature. A simulation study investigates the effects of model misspecification and highlights the need for non‐Gaussian conditional independence models. The proposed methods are finally applied to modeling financial return data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 86–109; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Trimmed and Winsorized means based on a scaled deviation

Trimmed (and Winsorized) means based on a scaled deviation are introduced and studied. The influence functions of the estimators are derived and their limiting distributions are established via asymptotic representations. As a main focus of the paper, the performance of the estimators with respect to various robustness and efficiency criteria is evaluated and compared with leading competitors including the ordinary Tukey trimmed (and Winsorized) means. Unlike the Tukey trimming which always trims a fixed fraction of sample points at each end of data, the trimming scheme here only trims points at one or both ends that have a scaled deviation beyond some threshold. The resulting trimmed (and Winsorized) means are much more robust than their predecessors. Indeed they can share the best breakdown point robustness of the sample median for any common trimming thresholds. Furthermore, for appropriate trimming thresholds they are highly efficient at light-tailed symmetric models and more efficient than their predecessors at heavy-tailed or contaminated symmetric models. Detailed comparisons with leading competitors on various robustness and efficiency aspects reveal that the scaled deviation trimmed (Winsorized) means behave very well overall and consequently represent very favorable alternatives to the ordinary trimmed (Winsorized) means.     

Investigating dependence between frequency and severity via simple generalized linear models

Recently, a body of literature proposed new models relaxing a widely-used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity in non-life insurance rate making. This paper critically reviews a generalized linear model approach, where a dependence between claim frequency and severity is introduced by treating frequency as a covariate in a regression model for severity. As an extension of this approach, we propose a dispersion model for severity. For this model, the information loss caused by using average severity rather than individual severity is examined in detail and the parameter estimators suffering from low efficiency are identified. We also provide analytical solutions for the aggregate sum to help rate making. We show that the simple functional form used in current research may not properly reflect the real underlying dependence structure. A real data analysis is given to explain our analytical findings.     

D-optimal minimax regression designs on discrete design space

One classical design criterion is to minimize the determinant of the covariance matrix of the regression estimates, and the designs are called D-optimal designs. To reflect the nature that the proposed models are only approximately true, we propose a robust design criterion to study response surface designs. Both the variance and bias are considered in the criterion. In particular, D-optimal minimax designs are investigated and constructed. Examples are given to compare D-optimal minimax designs with classical D-optimal designs.     

Combined multiple testing by censored empirical likelihood

We propose a new procedure for combining multiple tests in samples of right-censored observations. The new method is based on multiple constrained censored empirical likelihood where the constraints are formulated as linear functionals of the cumulative hazard functions. We prove a version of Wilks’ theorem for the multiple constrained censored empirical likelihood ratio, which provides a simple reference distribution for the test statistic of our proposed method. A useful application of the proposed method is, for example, examining the survival experience of different populations by combining different weighted log-rank tests. Real data examples are given using the log-rank and Gehan-Wilcoxon tests. In a simulation study of two sample survival data, we compare the proposed method of combining tests to previously developed procedures. The results demonstrate that, in addition to its computational simplicity, the combined test performs comparably to, and in some situations more reliably than previously developed procedures. Statistical software is available in the R package ‘emplik’.     

The convolution theorem for estimating linear functionals in indirect nonparametric regression models

Nonparametric regression—directly or indirectly observed—is one of the important statistical models. On one hand it contains two infinite dimensional parameters (the regression function and the error density), and on the other it is of rather simple structure. Therefore, it may serve as an interesting paradigm for illustrating or developing abstract statistical theory for non-Euclidean parameters. In this paper estimation of a linear functional of the indirectly observed regression function is considered, when a deterministic design is used. It should be noted that any Fourier coefficient of an expansion of the regression function in an orthonormal basis is such a functional. Because the design is deterministic the observables are independent but not identically distributed. Local asymptotic normality is established and applied to prove Hájek's convolution theorem for this functional. Pertinent references are Beran [1977. Robust location estimates. Ann. Statist. 5, 431–444] and McNeney and Wellner [2000. Application of convolution theorems in semiparametric models with non-i.i.d. data. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 91, 441–480]. For purposes explained above, however, the paper is kept self-contained and full proofs are provided.     

Some nonparametric precedence-type tests based on progressively censored samples and evaluation of power

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing the equality of two distributions when both samples are progressively Type-II censored. We discuss the following two statistics: one based on the Wilcoxon-type rank-sum precedence test, and the second based on the Kaplan–Meier estimator of the cumulative distribution function. The exact null distributions of these test statistics are derived and are then used to generate critical values and the corresponding exact levels of significance for different combinations of sample sizes and progressive censoring schemes. We also discuss their non-null distributions under Lehmann alternatives. A power study of the proposed tests is carried out under Lehmann alternatives as well as under location-shift alternatives through Monte Carlo simulations. Through this power study, it is shown that the Wilcoxon-type rank-sum precedence test performs the best.     

Robust designs for misspecified logistic models

We develop criteria that generate robust designs and use such criteria for the construction of designs that insure against possible misspecifications in logistic regression models. The design criteria we propose are different from the classical in that we do not focus on sampling error alone. Instead we use design criteria that account as well for error due to bias engendered by the model misspecification. Our robust designs optimize the average of a function of the sampling error and bias error over a specified misspecification neighbourhood. Examples of robust designs for logistic models are presented, including a case study implementing the methodologies using beetle mortality data.     

Asymptotic normality of frequency polygons for random fields

The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymptotic normality of the frequency polygon estimator of a stationary mixing random field indexed by multidimensional lattice points space Z^N$Z^N$. Appropriate choices of the bandwidths are found.