后危机时代国际投行的发展动向、发展趋势及其启示

自2008年发生全球性金融危机以来,国际投行发生了哪些重大变化,呈现怎样的发展趋势,由此给我国证券行业带来了哪些有益的借鉴和启示,这些都值得我们思考。本文试图对这些问题进行探讨,以期加强并进一步深化我国证券业的金融创新,加快建立证券业的自主创新体系,同时加强金融衍生品的全面审慎监管与风险控制,有效防范和化解金融风险,从而促进证券业的持续、稳定、健康发展。     

Financing low-income housing in South Africa: Borrower experiences and perceptions of banks

South Africa is facing a low-income housing crisis, with the current backlog estimated at over three million units. An obstacle in the provision of low-income housing is the difficulty encountered by commercial banks to extend loans in this market despite supporting initiatives by Government. A lack of knowledge on the borrowing behaviour, preferences and experiences of low-income households in accessing housing finance from the commercial banking sector in South Africa hampers an understanding of the reasons for these problems. This paper's contribution is to provide information on the experiences and perceptions of low-income borrowers in the housing market of South Africa, specifically in their dealings with commercial banks. Results from a survey of 653 households across five provinces of the country are provided. In the survey, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain information on the experiences and perceptions of low-income households about their access to credit and housing finance, their experience of banks, the successes in credit approval, their judgements on the suitability of banks’ home-loan products, as well as preferences with regard to prices and interest rates.     

Kulturwandel im Geldgeschäft? Potenziale einer ethischen Selbsterneuerung im Banken- und Finanzwesen

Following the financial crisis in 2008 a debate about the social benefit of the financial industry, which operates without considering its real-economic consequences, was initiated. The financial industry responded by offering strategies of cultural change (“Kulturwandel”) which foster a more socially responsible financial practice. At the same time the expansion of “ethical” banks aims to establish a banking business avoiding negative externalities of the banking sector. Following the conceptual assumptions of the sociology of critique we study the collectively shared interpretation of a “good” and legitimate financial practice beyond publicly communicated standards of practice. Against this backdrop we evaluate the potentials of normative self-regulation in banking and finance. Our results show that cultural or ethical change is only partly feasible if it exclusively focuses the motives, values and personalities of the individual subjects but neglects the structural as well as institutional conditions of a “good” financial practice.     

Causes of the financial crisis: Risk misperception,policy mistakes,and banks’ bounded rationality

This article describes important determinants of the current financial crisis. In particular, the text focuses on the bounded rationality of banks which contributes to the credit cycle. The credit cycle is the mechanism that links the present financial crisis with earlier crisis. Shortcomings on the side of monetary policy, rating agencies, and bank regulation are also discussed. We propose measures to strengthen the stabilizing effect of market forces, banks’ risk management, as well as possible changes to regulation and monetary policy.     

CHANGING BUSINESS MODELS IN INTERNATIONAL BANK FUNDING

This paper investigates the foreign funding mix of globally active banks. Using BIS international banking statistics for a panel of 12 advanced economies, we detect a structural break in international bank funding at the onset of the great financial crisis. In their postbreak business model, banks rely less on cross‐border liabilities and, instead, tap funds from outside their jurisdictions by making more active use of their subsidiaries and branches, as well as interoffice accounts within the same banking group. (JEL C32, F65, G21)     

„Da gibt es Sachen,die macht man einfach nicht“ – Deutungsmuster von Banken im Kontext von Nachhaltigkeit und Krise

Banks in Germany are experiencing a profound legitimacy crisis. In the wake of financial and economic crises, failures, and bailouts, as well as new oversight and stricter regulations, banks have lost the reputation and trust they once had. The present article uses an analysis of interpretative patterns to examine how banks seek to legitimize themselves in times of crisis, with reference to sustainability as a guiding principle of society. Following the concept of social legitimacy by new institutionalism in sociology, and based on discursive interviews with 18 representatives of German banks, we reconstructed three interpretative patterns: a) the differentiation from “bad” banks, which abandons profit-maximizing business models and promotes the moral superiority of sustainable banking, b) responsibility for society, which promotes the role and responsibility of banks as socially relevant actors that spur social change, and c) “right” return, whereby banks seek an appropriate relationship between their value orientation and a return on investments. Although a return on investment is economically necessary and confers legitimacy, it may not be understood as an end in itself. Banks discredited during the crisis can refocus on a banking model which promises social legitimacy by referring to sustainability.     

当前世界经济形势及对我国的影响

通过回顾前一阶段全球性金融危机发生的原因和结果,重点分析美国等发达国家的国内经济形势和走向,指出当前美国存在债务风险和财政政策的困境,欧洲则深陷主权债务危机,日本地震又给世界经济造成巨大冲击,由此得出有关当前世界经济形势的3点判断：一是全球经济恢复的势头减缓;二是发达国家的国债风险进一步提高;三是全球通胀形势急剧恶化。在此背景下,中国经济面临非常严重的挑战,如外汇储备缩水、热钱流入、输入型通胀压力增大、经济增长缓慢等,需要采取多种准确有效的应对措施,保持中国经济持续稳定增长。     

全球金融风险及中国的对策

当前,全球金融危机深层次影响正逐步显现,全球经济和金融体系的风险还在积聚,经济复苏的基础仍很脆弱,危机远远没有结束。在全球金融危机持续发酵的过程中,按照G20峰会确定的改革方向,金融稳定理事会、巴塞尔委员会等国际组织正共同努力推动金融监管改革,但金融体系长期积累的问题短期内难以消化,还需要全球政策制定者和监管当局加强政策协调,凝聚共识,在刺激经济增长和实施长期结构化改革之间寻求平衡。针对金融领域存在的风险隐患,中国为坚守不发生系统性和区域性金融风险的底线,必须完善相关配套政策,全面构建中国银行业的审慎监管体系。     

Connections with banking institutions and diverse asset portfolios in young adulthood: Children as potential future investors

A central hypothesis of Child Development Accounts (CDA) suggests that savings accounts in childhood lay a foundation for connecting to mainstream banking institutions and diversifying asset portfolios in young adulthood and beyond. While children may have limited savings to invest initially, they are financial actors who may increasingly invest money into different types of savings products over time. This paper uses propensity score weighted, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its supplements to examine the types of financial and nonfinancial assets owned by young adults and whether or not they are more likely to own these assets when they have savings accounts as children. The most commonly owned assets in young adulthood included savings accounts (89%), vehicles (54%) and credit cards (51%). Smaller percentages owned stocks (9%), bonds (6%), and homes (8%). On average, young adults owned two to three different assets. Having savings accounts in childhood was associated with being two times more likely to own savings accounts, two times more likely to own credit cards, and four times more likely to own stocks in young adulthood, compared to not having savings accounts in childhood. Young adults' ownership of more total financial assets was also associated with having savings accounts in childhood. Findings provide some supporting evidence of demand for children's savings accounts. Policy endeavors that remove barriers to account ownership may be advantageous for children and mainstream banks.     

Discourses of cultural heritage in times of crisis: The case of the Parthenon Marbles

The paper focuses on the commodification and politicisation of cultural heritage using as a case study the ongoing debate on the return of the Parthenon Marbles from the U.K. to Greece, recently reignited by the press release for the movie The Monuments Men in 2014. Greece has been in the throes of a severe financial crisis for over six years with the ever imminent threat of Grexit constantly disputed. In parallel with this ongoing turmoil, discourses of Greek antiquity have been persistently prominent in the media. In this context, we problematise the complex nexus of relationships between the financial crisis, national identity and cultural heritage. We combine the Discourse‐Historical Approach and Interactional Sociolinguistics drawing data from an online forum, and investigate how the users negotiate pro‐/anti‐return positions and make the financial crisis relevant in the argumentation process. The analysis shows that history, identity, value, and debt are recontextualised in relation to the Parthenon sculptures. The analysis identifies an underlying process of value trade off and brings the current political and economic environment to the fore. We close the paper by foregrounding the implications of our study and provide directions for further research.     

解读社会融资规模 加快金融改革步伐

偏离为实体经济服务的"影子银行"会创造金融泡沫;统计监管社会金融资产规模是关注"影子银行"活动的重要措施;尊重市场主体的投资和融资自主权是市场配置资源的基本要义,资金是配置资源的龙头,风险自担是尊重自主权的前提;明确法律关系、发展资产管理市场是搞活投资渠道的重点。     

Coherence,pathology and change in Chinese commercial banks

Abstract

In this article, the traditional organisation development (OD) methodology is adapted into a new form called organisation patterning (OP), which is able to explore coherence, pathology and change in Chinese commercial state-owned banks. This occurs by shifting it into a cybernetic frame of reference that provides a new way of understanding organisational change. OP is better able to deal with resistance, power and control issues than traditional OD is. It is applied to the notions of coherence and pathology in the Chinese commercial banking system through a questionnaire analysis of state-owned banks in different Chinese regions. OP is different from traditional OD, incorporating new knowledge derived from a cybernetic paradigm called knowledge cybernetics. It is better able to understand coherence and pathologies and is applicable to understanding change in Chinese commercial state-owned banks. This study only concerns well-established state-owned commercial banks in China. There might be different conclusions for other types of enterprises. The study also offers guidelines for managing change in Chinese banks, especially with respect to coherence, pathologies and kinematics.     

The Islamic Banking Industry in Jordan

Thirty-three years ago Islamic banking was considered wishful thinking. However, serious research over the past two-and-a-half decades has shown that Islamic banking is not only feasible and viable, but is an efficient and productive way of financial intermediation. A number of Islamic banks have also been established during this period in Jordan. The objective of this paper is to examine the structure and performance of the Islamic banking industry in Jordan during the period 2000–2006. We find that the Jordanian Islamic banking industry is still in its infancy compared to a number of countries in the region and there is a growth trend in the financial services market, despite its current concentration and limited size.     

The shadow of the past: Financial risk taking and negative life events

Based on data from the four 2004–2010 waves of the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we show that financial risk taking is significantly related to life-history negative events out of an individual’s control. Using observed portfolio decisions to proxy for risk taking, we find correlation with two of such individual-specific events: having been victim of a physical attack and (especially) the loss of a child are associated with lower and less frequent investments in risky assets, with an intensity similar to that of the beginning, in 2008, of a collectively experienced event such as the recent financial crisis. We also find evidence that the correlation of risk taking with a child loss is long-lasting, as opposed to the correlation with a physical attack that disappears after few years. Our analysis is more in favor of a preference-based – rather than a belief-based – explanation of the observed change in risk taking. Overall our findings indicate that the past, especially through the loss of a child, casts a long shadow that extends over individuals’ current decisions also within unrelated domains.     

What do stress tests test? Experimentation,demonstration, and the sociotechnical performance of regulatory science

After their successful introduction during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, central bank stress tests were adopted as a fixture of international banking supervision. However, in recent years a new normal has emerged where banks are expected to pass the tests, raising questions about the tests’ usefulness and legitimacy. Combining a dramaturgical interpretation of regulatory science with the idea of performativity in the sociology of finance, this article understands stress tests as a sociotechnical Goffmanian performance. With a focus on the Bank of England’s program, the paper argues that the Bank’s decision to make their tests “predictable” is an attempt to shore up central bank legitimacy by constraining regulatory discretion. This is accomplished through the use of calculative and procedural stage management techniques which allow the Bank to control the contingency of the testing process while demonstrating its objectivity. Nevertheless, the conclusion suggests that in the context of low levels of trust in central banks, routine declarations of “all clear” may undermine public confidence in the tests’ credibility and necessity. The study draws on 20 interviews with high-level regulators, financial practitioners and other stakeholders in the Bank of England’s stress tests.     

Are Branch Banks Better Survivors? Evidence from the Depression Era

It is widely argued in the literature on the Great Depression that the prevalence of unit banks aggravated the problem of financial instability that afflicted the United States. This article tests the theory that more widespread branch banking would have reduced financial turbulence by examining the survival of individual branch and unit banks. Results indicate that instead of being more likely to survive, branch banks were more likely to fail. Further investigation suggests that this higher failure rate occurred because branch banks systematically held riskier portfolios than unit banks.     

Reactions Versus Perceptions Within the Romanian Banking Sector in Times of Crisis and Reorganization

Our paper contributes to the literature on the Romanian banking sector by analyzing a particular credit institution, namely the Cluj Napoca regional corporate business center of BCR Erste Bank Romania. Our choice is motivated by the fact that the Cluj Napoca regional center represents the pilot used by Erste Bank in testing all structural changes, new technologies and management and risk strategies. The analysis being developed focuses on the restructuration process taking place due to BCR’s merger with Erste Group, in what was considered to be one of the most spectacular takeovers in Central and Eastern Europe, therefore forming BCR Erste. The analyzed period also involves financial crisis circumstances. Considering the changes taking place within both the internal and external environment of the bank we oriented our analysis towards the bank’s clients. More precisely, we tested if, under the considered circumstances, we could find a connection between the bank’s clients’ reaction to the events taking place and their perception upon the same phenomenon. Regression models are used in developing the analysis. The results of the study come to prove the existence of a medium intensity relationship between clients’ perception on the two considered phenomenon and their reaction. Such results are justified if we think that on one hand the restructuration contributed towards positive effects while on the other we have negative effects due to the financial crisis. Our study has the obvious limitation of only approaching one case study. The analysis performed on BCR Erste’s case could also be extended to other banks. Conclusions therefore being reached and the potential effects of this type of research could be directly beneficial for the local, regional and/or national economic environment. The information aimed to be obtained is in line with the bank’s policy of orientation towards its clients. Besides analyzing clients’ perception, our analysis also considers its connection to their reaction. Since clients’ behavior is always in the center of management’s attention, dimensioning this connection bears significant practical implications. The distinctive element of the study is given by the analyzed period representing for the chosen bank both its restructuration process and the period when the financial crisis peaked in its manifestation.     

ARE WOMEN MORE RISK AVERSE?

We find that single women exhibit relatively more risk aversion in financial decision making than single men. Using U.S. sample data, we examine household holdings of risky assets to determine whether there are gender differences in financial risk taking. As wealth increases, the proportion of wealth held as risky assets is estimated to increase by a smaller amount for single women than for single men. Gender differences in financial risk taking are also influenced by age, race, and number of children. Greater financial risk aversion may provide an explanation for women's lower levels of wealth compared with men's. ( JEL J16, D81, G11)     

The banking industry in Jordan

This paper examines the structure and performance of the banking industry in Jordan during the period 2000–2006. The Jordanian banking industry is free of extensive state ownership and government direction of the economy. These positive features are reflected by the absence of dominant state-owned banks and by the limited use of directed credit programs, interest rate controls, and credit ceilings. The banking industry is well developed, with bank assets representing 239.80 percent of the GDP at the end of 2006, which is a high percentage compared with other developing countries in the region.     

The Role of Foreign Banks in Poland

The paper examines the process of the Polish banking sector's internationalisation, with a particular intention of describing incentives and the impact of foreign banks entry. In order to carry out an assessment of changes in the banking market structure and banks' performance, the study introduces arguments and motivations of foreign capital inflow into local financial systems with implications for the stability and the development of the banking sector. The role of foreign capital in the Polish economy derives from an analysis of the effects of foreign banks penetration, in terms of changes in competitiveness, efficiency, and stability of the banking sector. An assessment of concentration level and development prospects have also been included.