Effects of Workers' Remittances and its Volatility on Economic Growth in South Asia

This study investigates the effect of workers' remittances and its volatility on economic growth of five South Asian countries by employing long time series data from 1975 to 2009. Cointegration results confirm a significant positive long run relationship between remittances and economic growth in India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, but a significant negative relationship in Pakistan. Conversely, the volatility of workers' remittances has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Pakistan, Indian, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, but a negative but insignificant impact in Nepal. All sensitivity analyses confirm that the results are robust. A less volatile inflow of workers' remittances is growth‐enhancing for all countries. It is suggested that policy makers should make policies to reduce the transaction cost to welcome remittances into the region. Furthermore, countries like Pakistan should make the policies to discourage voluntary unemployment.

Policy Implications

• This study show the positive effect of remittances on economic growth in India, Bangladesh, Sri‐Lanka and Nepal. These countries should create friendly policies to reduce the transaction cost to ensure the continuous inflows of workers' remittances.
• Results indicate a negative effect of remittances on economic growth in Pakistan. Remittances are considered an uninterrupted source of income, which may increase voluntary unemployment, leading to decreased economic growth. The government should make policies to discourage this voluntary unemployment.
• Policymakers should create effective systems to ensure this inflow comes through formal financial channels for better control.

     

Does satisfaction matter? A microeconomic empirical analysis of the effect of social relations on economic welfare

The paper studies the effect of social relations on individual economic welfare by explicitly considering the qualitative aspect of relations that characterize the social structure of personal contacts. It argues that important information is lost if only the density of the social network is considered. This proposition is tested using microdata representative of the entire Italian population. Two proxies for interpersonal relations at an individual level are considered: the number of voluntary associations joined and the satisfaction gained from relationships with friends. Both seem to have a positive effect on two indices of household economic welfare: a subjective index and an objective one. The subjective index is based on both the subjects’ personal assessment of their household general economic situation and financial difficulties in meeting certain expenditures. The objective index is calculated from objective data on the household's economic situation. The empirical results prove robust on considering a variety of control variables and using different econometric methods.     

The effect of immigration on the earnings of native-born workers: Evidence from Australia

No consensus has been reached by previous studies on the impact of immigration on the earnings of natives. Using data from the Australia's 2001 Census of Population and Housing an individual-level earnings function is estimated by including the fraction of immigrants in a given skill group relative to total employment in that skill group as one of the independent variables. Using employees’ occupation and level of education as proxies for skill, the results indicate that generally immigrants have a significant positive effect on earnings of natives. The overall findings suggest that the increase in supply of labour due to immigration is offset by higher demand for labour and hence positive effect on native earnings.     

Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

The relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty, investment and economic growth is an empirical issue in developing countries. This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment and economic growth in Pakistan for the period 1975–2008 by using the accelerator model of investment and endogenous growth model. The conditional variances, directly estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is utilized for erecting the uncertainty variables related to fiscal policy, openness and foreign capital inflows. The results clearly indicate that the macroeconomic uncertainty have significant negative effects on investment and per capita income of Pakistan. We conclude that a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty through appropriate fiscal and monetary policy, stability in capital inflows and improved trade performance could result in high investment and sustainable economic growth in the country.     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.     

Relationship Between Government Size and Trade Openness: Evidence from Pakistan

In this paper the effect of trade openness on government’s role in the economy is investigated in Pakistan using data for the period 1947–2009. The results demonstrate that there is a significant positive association between trade openness and government size. The explanation appears that as openness increases the size of government will inflate. This association is robust to the inclusion of a wide range of control variables and model specifications. The results support the compensation hypothesis and imply that government consumption plays a risk-reducing role in Pakistan. The empirical findings also highlight the role of other variables in determining the government size. Government size increases with income, democracy, foreign debt and investment, while it decreases with the increase in inflation and urbanization.     

The Impact of Trade and Exchange‐rate Policy Reforms on North African Manufactured Exports

Three indicators capture the impact of exchange‐rate policy in fostering manufactured exports from North Africa: changes in the real effective exchange rate (REER), its volatility, and its misalignment. The impact of trade policy is examined using a trade liberalisation indicator. Export supply equations are estimated for three manufacturing industries: textiles, chemicals, and food. The results suggest that trade and exchange‐rate policies matter for export performance, as is evidenced by the negative influence exerted independently by real exchange‐rate misalignment and volatility and by the positive influence of trade liberalisation.     

Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data

This study examined the determinants of fertility, using panel data for 27 European countries. We employed panel co-integration to estimate fertility as function of demographic and economic variables. We showed that low fertility in most industrialized countries in Europe is due to low infant mortality rates, high female employment, low nuptiality rate, and high opportunity cost of having children. Using two measures of economic uncertainty, which are associated with labor market decisions—a production (an output) volatility measure and the unemployment rate—we examined to what extent economic insecurities affect fertility decisions. The empirical results showed that both measures of economic uncertainty have a significant negative impact on fertility implying that labor market insecurities might be a significant factor affecting fertility decisions.     

INTERNATIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND THE VOLATILITY OF TRADE

Were the large import fluctuations around the 2007–2009 recession because of increasing trade volatility? I show that import volatility relative to gross domestic product (GDP) increased in the 2000s and examine whether vertical specialization (VS) trade can explain this increase. I develop and calibrate a model of VS trade that generates most of the observed increase in relative import volatility from the 1960s to the 2000s. The increase is because of GDP's shift to less volatile services production. VS trade has a negligible impact. VS causes trade to fall more in recession but also increases the share of output that is traded, leaving volatility unaffected. It increases volatility by shifting trade to more volatile sectors, but this effect is quantitatively small. (JEL E3, F1)     

WHEN IS TRADE PROTECTION GOOD FOR GROWTH?

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisingly fragile, as shown in a number of other papers. We address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationship is contingent on the pattern of comparative advantage, following the endogenous growth literature. Our findings suggest that such contingencies do in fact exist—in particular, the correlation between tariffs and growth is strong and positive for skill‐abundant countries—and are robust to the choice of control variables. (JEL F13, F43, O19, O24)     

PHYSICIAN RESPONSE TO A MAILED SURVEY AN EXPERIMENT IN TIMING OF PAYMENT

This article reports the results of an experiment in obtainingphysician response to a mailed questionnaire. Each physicianwas eligible for a payment of $20. A randomly selected halfreceived the payment with their initial questionnaire and coverletter; half were told they would receive their payment afterthey completed and returned the questionnaire. The same mailand telephone followup procedures were used for both groups.Overall, prepayment had significant positive effects on responserates. This paper examines these effects in terms of responserates for various specialties, field efficiencies, cost, andrepresentativeness of the sample.     

The Impacts of Gaming Expansion on Economic Growth: A Theoretical Reconsideration

This paper employs a general equilibrium framework to analyze the effects on economic growth of global expansions in casino gaming, which exports gambling services largely to non-residents. Both domestic and foreign investments in the gaming sector bring in not only substantial revenues but also positive spillover effects on related sectors and even on the entire local economy. However, an over-expansion of commercial gambling may lead to deterioration in the terms of trade with an adverse impact on real income. If this situation persists, it would not be impossible for immiserizing growth to occur. As a highly profitable sector, casino gaming may enable its operators to diversify out of this risk if they invest retained profits in non-gaming sectors to cash in on the spillover effects it has created. The gaming-dominant economy can then be directed on a more balanced and sustainable growth path, and will become less susceptible to business cycles. Indeed, economic experiences in the world’s major casino resorts are consistent basically with this argument for diversification. We believe that after the current global crisis fades away, economic growth and resulting surges in global demand for gambling services can provide further opportunities for the expansion of existing casino resorts and the development of new gaming markets.     

Who is on the rise in Austria: Wage mobility and mobility risk

In this paper we investigate earnings mobility in Austria from the angle of individual persons. Earnings mobility over time has two aspects: Positional changes and the volatility of earnings over time. Whereas the further is a positive outcome, more volatility as such can be seen as negative. We use Austrian data from tax authorities to find out how population characteristics are related to these two concepts of earnings mobility. Our main results concern initial positions: The higher up you are at the beginning, the more difficult is further positional advancement, moreover, in terms of volatility we see that those in the lowest quantiles of the earnings distribution face the highest volatility of earnings positions over time. *Rudolf Winter-Ebmer is also associated with CEPR, London and IZA, Bonn.     

Democracy and Growth: Evidence for Portugal (1960–2001)

This paper examines the causal relationship between democracy and economic growth in Portugal over the period 1960–2001 within a VAR model with four variables: output, physical and human capital, and an index of democracy. We apply Granger causality tests and impulse-response functions to analyze causality and check how unexpected changes influence growth. Our main findings point to a bi-directional causality between democracy and growth. The impulse-response analysis suggests that in the short run democracy has a negative effect on growth in Portugal, but in the long run this effect is positive. Furthermore, we find that democracy also causes economic growth by increasing educational attainment.     

VOLATILITY AND IRISH EXPORTS

We analyze the impact of volatility per se on real exports for a small open economy concentrating on Irish trade with the United Kingdom and the United States. An important element is that we take account of the time lag between the trade decision and the actual trade or payments taking place by using a flexible lag approach. Rather than adopting a single measure of risk, we adopt a spectrum of risk measures and detail varied size characteristics and statistical properties. We find that the ambiguous results found to date may be due to not taking account of the timing effect, which varies substantially depending on which volatility measure is used. (JEL C32, C51, F14, F31)     

Remittances,Institutions and Growth in Africa

Remittances have become an important source of external finance in many developing countries. This article examines the relationship between remittances, institutions and economic growth in a panel of 26 African countries over the period 1980–2014. We apply the fixed effects (FE) and the two‐step system generalized method‐of‐moments (GMM) estimation methods. Our results show that there is a positive relationship between remittances and growth. We also find that institutions are an important determinant of economic growth. The interaction terms have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth. Thus, the growth effect of remittances is enhanced in the presence of strong institutions. Strong institutions are therefore germane in attracting greater remittance inflows to African countries. A clearer understanding of the channels through which remittance flows will enhance growth in African economies may assist policymakers to craft appropriate policies. In particular, a policy environment that promotes strong institutions would serve to attract more remittances.     

Economic policy and the level of self-perceived well-being: An international comparison

The focus of macroeconomic inquiry has traditionally been on studying economic growth. The success or failure of any government initiated expenditure, revenue, or regulatory policy is commonly judged by the rate of the ensuing economic growth. This study focuses on whether economic variables that figure prominently in current policy discussions, such as economic growth and economic freedom, are related to the self-reported levels of well-being of individuals. The econometric analysis attempts to uncover those economic factors that appear to be the most highly correlated with a country's success or failure in promoting its citizens’ well-being. The cross-country sample includes 68 countries of diverse characteristics and uses averaged data for the 1990s.     

Economic welfare,civil liberty,and suicide: an empirical investigation

Performing an international cross-section study for 30 countries, this paper investigates the dependence of suicides rates on real income per capita, real income growth and civil liberty. Suicide rates are transformed into logits, and weighted seemingly unrelated Zellner–Aitken estimates are obtained for both sexes and seven age groups, where the weights correspond to the size of the population in each of the subgroups of the different countries. All three variables have significant effects on the suicide rate. The economic variables have a positive influence: the higher real per capita income and/or real economic growth, the higher the suicide rate is. But these results vary between age groups: income plays a more important role for the middle age group, whereas economic growth is more important for the older people. Moreover, older women react stronger to income growth than older men. With respect to civil liberty, we get ‘expected’ results: the more liberty, the lower the suicide rates.     

Volatility,House Edge and Prize Structure of Gambling Games

This study used simulations to examine the effect of prize structure on the outcome volatility and the number of winners of various game configurations. The two most common prize structures found in gambling games are even money payoff games (bet 1; win1; win 2) found on most table games and multilevel prizes structures found in gambling machine games. Simulations were set up to examine the effect of prize structure on the long-term outcomes of these games. Eight different prize structures were compared in terms of the number of winners and volatility. It was found that the standard table game and commercial gambling machines produced fairly high numbers of short term winners (1 h), but few long term winners (50 h). It was found that the typical even money game set up produced the lowest level of volatility. Of the multilevel prize structures examined, the three simulations based on commercial gambling machines were the least volatile. The results are examined in terms of the pragmatics of game design.     

Benefit-cost analysis of residential and outpatient addiction treatment in the State of Washington

A benefit-cost analysis of full continuum (FC) and partial continuum (PC) care was conducted on a sample of substance abusers from the State of Washington. Economic benefits were derived from client self-reported information at treatment entry and at 9 months postadmission using an augmented version of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI). Average (i.e., per client) economic benefits of treatment from baseline to follow-up for both FC and PC were statistically significant for most variables and in the aggregate. The overall difference in average economic benefit between FC and PC was positive ($8,053) and statistically significant, favoring FC over PC. The average cost of treatment amounted to $2,530 for FC and $1,138 for PC (p < .01). Average net benefits were estimated to be $17,833 (9.70) for FC and $11,173 (23.33) for PC, with values showing statistical significance (p < .05). Results strongly indicate that both treatment options generated positive and significant net benefits to society.