Personal probabilities of probabilities

By definition, the subjective probability distribution of a random event is revealed by the (‘rational’) subject's choice between bets — a view expressed by F. Ramsey, B. De Finetti, L. J. Savage and traceable to E. Borel and, it can be argued, to T. Bayes. Since hypotheses are not observable events, no bet can be made, and paid off, on a hypothesis. The subjective probability distribution of hypotheses (or of a parameter, as in the current ‘Bayesian’ statistical literature) is therefore a figure of speech, an ‘as if’, justifiable in the limit. Given a long sequence of previous observations, the subjective posterior probabilities of events still to be observed are derived by using a mathematical expression that would approximate the subjective probability distribution of hypotheses, if these could be bet on. This position was taken by most, but not all, respondents to a ‘Round Robin’ initiated by J. Marschak after M. H. De-Groot's talk on Stopping Rules presented at the UCLA Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in Behavioral Sciences. Other participants: K. Borch, H. Chernoif, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, T. S. Ferguson, G. Graves, K. Miyasawa, P. Randolph, L. J. Savage, R. Schlaifer, R. L. Winkler. Attention is also drawn to K. Borch's article in this issue.     

Mother–Child Conversations of Emotionally Salient Events: Exploring the Functions of Emotional Reminiscing in European-American and Chinese Families

This study explores the functional variations in mother–child conversations of emotionally salient events in European‐American and Chinese families. Thirty Chinese and 31 European‐American 3‐year‐old children and their mothers participated. Mothers were asked to discuss with their children at home two specific one‐point‐in‐time events in which they both participated. One event was extremely positive to the child, one extremely stressful. American mothers initiated more interactive and elaborative conversations that focused on the child's roles and predilections in the story, and they employed a ‘cognitive approach’ to emotional regulation by providing explanations for the cause of children's feeling states. Chinese mothers took a directive role in posing and repeating memory questions and focusing on social interaction, and they used a ‘behavioral approach’ to emotional regulation by emphasizing discipline and proper conduct to their children. Findings are discussed in light of cultural influences on the functions of emotional reminiscing for self and relationship construction and emotional regulation.     

‘Work for others but none for us’: the economic and environmental inequalities of New Deal relief

This article calls for increased dialogue between social and environmental historians through an examination of the unintended inequalities caused by New Deal relief efforts in the United States during the Great Depression era. It does so not by exploring those directly involved in New Deal relief programmes, but rather by analysing the impact of such programmes on residents of local communities situated near New Deal work project sites. In particular, it traces how a dozen Civilian Conservation Corps camps in a state park thirty miles from New York City transformed the local environment, and in turn influenced the economies and political relationships of nearby local communities. The article argues that while working-class residents were unable to benefit financially from nearby New Deal relief work, middle- and upper-class business owners proved more successful. As a result of such economic inequalities, while working-class locals became increasingly critical of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, middle- and upper-class residents became grudgingly supportive. The article concludes by urging both social and environmental historians to undertake ‘histories from the ground up’ that pay as much attention to nature as they do to race, class, ethnicity and gender.     

Social change and nationalism in China's popular songs

ABSTRACT

The unveiling of memorials to those who fell in the First World War were highly solemn, dramatic and emotional events. Yet, while much attention has been given by historians to memorials and the purposes behind memorialisation, there has been less discussion of just how the feelings of the public were stimulated and provoked. Most accounts concentrate on the aesthetics and symbolism of the monuments themselves, and the speeches given by the officiating parties and individuals at unveilings. In doing so, however, they miss what was perhaps the most important emotional aspect of these ceremonies: music. This article argues that non-verbal sounds best expressed the raw emotions of the occasions and, in doing so, gave them their power and significance in establishing the mood of the moment and the public’s attachment to the memorials. Examining the major city memorials of Scotland as well as the National Memorial at Edinburgh Castle, it focuses on the significance of the bagpipes and Scotland’s most famous lament, ‘The Flowers of the Forest’, in providing the emotional high points of the ceremonies.     

The cognitive approach to information-seeking behaviour and information use

The cognitive approach to ‘information behaviour’ centres upon the idea of meaning. Meaning is involved not only in all aspects of information generation, transfer and use, but also in the way people define themselves, their lives and their actions.The cognitive approach, therefore, draws attention to the need for a bridge between the meanings of everyday life and the information that may have relevance for everyday life. In this sense, of course, ‘everyday life’ is different for every person—for some it may involve research as an everyday activity, for others the practice of a profession, for others, involvement in business and commerce.The aim of this paper will be to explore these concepts in the context of research into information behaviour in the everyday world of work, where individuals may be constrained to a greater or lesser degree in their ability to define the content, direction and function of their work and where the diversity of roles may prevent the emergence of coherent groups capable of expressing clear needs for information support.De Mey's presentation of the ‘cognitive paradigm’ will be examined and parallels to elements of such a ‘paradigm’ will be sought in the world of work.Throughout, the paper will draw upon the author's present and past research.     

‘The confidence to know I can survive’: resilience and recovery in post-quake Christchurch

This paper explores the relevance of terms such as resilience and recovery when analysing earthquake stories recorded for the Women's Voices/Ngā Reo o Ngā Wahine Project after the sequence of earthquakes and aftershocks in Christchurch, New Zealand's second-largest city, in 2010–2011. While the media focused on stories of victims, the heroic work of rescue teams, policy, army and firefighters, or the deliberations of national and local politicians, the National Council of Women of New Zealand wanted to ensure that women's everyday quake experiences were recorded for posterity. The outcome was an oral history project that documented the stories of women all over the city, both beneficiaries of earthquake support and those active in assisting others. Their narratives illustrate how resilience in the face of natural hazard events, such as this earthquake sequence, requires effort, ingenuity and imagination, but also the activation of multiple actor networks and relevant technologies. These ‘insider stories’ also highlight the ways in which expectations of ‘resilience’ can obscure vulnerability after natural hazard events and the complex and uneven processes associated with ‘recovery’. The relevance of critical reflections on discourses of resilience is explored through attention to the stories of specific women.     

The logic of preference reconsidered

Preferences are an important object of study in economic theory. Their logico-mathematical study has become prominent with the raise of modern decision theory and with the new conceptions of utility-functions and personalistic probabilities. The ‘basic logic’ at the foundation of the more advanced theories of preference, however, has been relatively little investigated. The pioneer work is Hallden's The Logic of ‘Better’ of the year 1957, followed by von Wright's The Logic of Preference in 1963. The topic has turned out unexpectedly problematic and there is as yet little consensus among logicians about the basic laws of preferring. A reason for this is apparently that there exist several concepts of preference which must be disentangled and kept apart in a logical theory. How this is to be done is discussed in the introductory sections (1–5) of the present paper. In Section 8 is sketched a logic for an asymmetric and connected preference-relation which holds between ‘possible worlds’ within a subject's ‘preference-horizon’ (Section 7). Preferences between states of affairs generally are called holistic when they hold ceteris paribus, i.e., when there is a corresponding preference-relation between any pairs of possible worlds which differ only in those two states and in no others. (Section 6.) Holistic preferences between states are asymmetrical and transitive but they do not form a linear preference order. (Section 9.) Failure to notice this, the author maintains, is responsible for much confusion in the traditional treatment of the subject. In the concluding sections (10–12) the author discusses the mutual relations of the value-absolutes, the good and the bad. Can they be defined in the terms of the relative notion of betterness or preference (and logical constants) alone? The definition which says that the goodness of a state is the holistic preference of it over its contradictory, answers the question affirmatively but conflicts with several deep-rooted axiological intuitions of ours. A more satisfying definition of the value-absolutes requires the additional notion of a value-less state (world) with which all the other states may be compared. In this connection some ideas of G. E. Moore about the notion of an ‘empty’ world can be interestingly exploited.     

The origins of the ‘creative class’: provincial urban society,scientific culture and socio-political marginality in Britain in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries1

Recent historiography has revealed the importance of scientific culture in British society during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, with scientific knowledge shown to have been central in a wide range of sites and contexts, from botanical gardens to mechanics’ institutes. The article draws upon the insights of historians of science, urban historians and others to argue that the concept of the English ‘urban renaissance’, the Habermasean model of the public sphere, various aspects of post-structural, post-modern and feminist theory, and attention to ‘the space’ and geography can all be used to enhance the understanding of this culture. Given that scientific culture has often been associated with social groups that have sometimes been described as ‘marginal’, the article explores the historiography of various aspects of what it defines as the ‘marginal model’ of cultural expression. Aspects of its various manifestations are explored with special reference to groups often perceived as ‘alternative’ or ‘peripheral’ to ‘dominant’ or majority culture, such as women, dissenters, gays or immigrants, including recent work in the United States concerning the activities of the ‘creative class’. It is contended that this can illuminate our understanding of British scientific culture, for instance through its emphasis on urban and regional differentiation and on the irrational aspects of intellectual endeavour. The study assesses how successfully models of social marginality account for the varied character and geography of this culture, using case-studies of scientific societies in different types of English town and a review of Scottish Enlightenment science.     

Linguistic indirectness in parent–preschooler reminiscing about emotion‐related events: Links with emotion regulation and psychosocial adjustment

The concept of linguistic indirectness is well established within the field of pragmatics, in which it has been observed that speakers express ideas directly and indirectly. We integrated the analysis of linguistic directness and indirectness with the examination of two established measures of parental emotion socialization through reminiscing: elaboration and emotion explanations. We examined the unique associations of parents’ direct and indirect elaboration and emotion explanations with preschoolers’ emotion regulation and psychosocial adjustment. Participants were 55 parent–preschooler dyads (31 girls, 24 boys). The dyads reminisced about positive and negative events. Conversations were coded for parental elaboration, parental use of emotion explanations, and parental linguistic directness and indirectness. Children's emotion regulation was observed during standard tasks, and teachers reported on children's psychosocial adjustment. Multivariate regressions including direct elaboration and direct emotion explanations indicated that parents who engaged in more indirect elaboration when discussing positive events had children with worse emotion regulation. Parents who used indirect emotion explanations when discussing positive events had children with better psychosocial adjustment. Parents’ indirect speech during negative event discussions was not related to child outcomes. The results suggest differential functions for indirect elaboration and indirect emotion explanations in relation to children's social outcomes, and support the utility of examining linguistic indirectness.     

Unmaking the Middle Eastern working classes: labour and the politics of historiography

This article surveys recent developments in academic approaches to the history of the working classes in the modern Middle East and argues that the decline of scholarly interest in Middle Eastern labour history is a product of the confluence of political, cultural and disciplinary transformations. Labour history thrived among historians of the Middle East in the late 1970s and 1980s but produced only a small handful of important texts in the following two decades. The marginalization of organized labour by post-populist authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, the sudden rise of political Islam as the dominant paradigm of political opposition to the state, and the general abandonment of class analysis by historians in the wake of the ‘cultural turn’ have all contributed to this decline of academic interest in the lives of Middle Eastern workers. These problems have been exacerbated by the political instability of the region and the corresponding difficulty of accessing state archives. The political spark provided by labour activism and agitation in the years preceding and following the ‘Arab Spring’, however, is once again bringing questions of labour and class to the attention of historians.     

Falling real interest rates,rising debt: A free lunch?

Deep systemic financial crises tend to be infrequent events, as they leave deep lasting scars on the psyche of consumers, investors, politicians and regulators. Normally, especially given strengthened regulation and, one would not expect another systemic event for many decades. But the situation today is anything but normal. Record high global public and private debt combined with political paralysis and extraordinarily weak leadership outside central banks make today’s uncharacteristically fragile at this point in the debt supercycle.     

Clive's Kids: An Employment Scheme for Unemployable Youth

In eighteen months, one man with a second-hand utility, two worn lawn mowers, community and employer support, resulted in over sixty-eight ‘unemployable’ youth entering the workforce on a permanent basis. Clive's program is unique to Australia. (It was considered that anonymity should be maintained because adverse publicity resulted in youth programs in the area being closely scrutinized regarding participants ‘working’ and earning money.—Ed.)     

Distinctive alcohol cultural practices amongst Niuean men living in Auckland,New Zealand

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe some of the distinctive cultural practices evident in Niuean men's drinking behaviours. The paper is also intended to illustrate that alcohol is an integral aspect of the Niuean culture and part of the system of cultural exchange. Alcohol has become an integral component of Niuean cultural rituals to the extent that celebrations and festivals are thought to be incomplete if alcohol is not present. Alcohol is used as a tool for expressing cultural values such as fakaalofa (gifting), generosity, respect, status and host obligations. Finally, alcohol is used as a symbol of ‘being Niuean’ and being a ‘real’ Niuean man. This paper will describe how practices specific to Niuean men such as drinking the ‘Niuean way’ and kalaga are symbols that help to reinforce men's cultural identity, enhancing their feeling of communal identity. It is important to emphasize that it is difficult to divorce the ‘cultural’ components of Niuean men's drinking styles from their drinking and behaviour more generally. Culture shapes people's values and behaviours. Although this paper points to some of the specific and distinctively ‘cultural’ aspects of Niuean drinking, we must recognize that all of the participants’ drinking behaviours and attitudes are likely to have been shaped by their cultural and social context. Furthermore, this paper provides only a brief snapshot of how culture and alcohol are intertwined for Niuean men. Educational programmes and host responsibility guidelines need to be culturally appropriate to suit the needs of the Niuean community. Further work is needed to elucidate this complex topic.     

Strategic Planning for Support Services for Children with a Parent or Close Relative in Prison

It has long been recognized that children with a parent or close relative in prison are more likely to experience educational difficulties, emotional distress, family breakdown and a substantial reduction in family income (Boswell 2002; Smith et al. 2007; Morgan et al. 2013b; Morgan and Gill 2013). Consequently, children with a parent in prison are more likely to require support from statutory services, especially education and social care. However, statutory support for this group of children is sparse, and children of prisoners tend not to be identified as a priority group. The demand on local authorities to spend their limited budgets wisely means tough decisions have to be made. These decisions are not taken in a vacuum: they are taken in a context of local need, consumer representation, central and local politics; underpinned by the values and attitudes of individual members as well as by the ethos or culture of the local authority itself. In this article we apply Axford's typology (2009) of the different cultures which underpin local authority service provision to data from a research study carried out in 2011 in one local authority which explored support provision in schools for children of prisoners. We examine the contradictions and gaps within the local authority's attempts to synergize the different modules of service delivery into a coherent pattern of provision, and we explore how changes in strategic culture might lead to improvements being made in terms of service delivery to this group of ‘vulnerable’ children.     

Offending behaviour in care: is children's residential care a ‘criminogenic’ environment?

This paper focuses on offending behaviour and children in residential care. The paper considers whether children's residential care is a ‘criminogenic’ environment, i.e. whether this type of care environment helps to provide the conditions that produce crime or criminality. The paper draws on the findings from recently completed research on 10 children's homes in a large county local authority in England. This paper focuses on the patterns shown in trend data collected on problematic and offending data across these homes over a 7‐year period (2001–2007) and a 1‐year cohort study of 46 young people. Interviews with care staff and young people are used to contextualize these patterns. The data provide evidence of an environment where conflict and offending behaviour are common. It is argued that the residential care environment, particularly for older teenagers, often presents a set of risks that tend to reinforce offending behaviour and that this is in part due to its ‘last resort’ status.     

(De)familialization and (De)genderization – Competing or Complementary Perspectives in Comparative Policy Analysis?

This article critically engages with Saxonberg's proposal (2013) to replace the (de)familialization perspective with the (de)genderization approach in comparative family policy/regime studies. It argues: (1) there is a need to refine the term ‘(de)familialization’ and to bring in the child's and elderly's perspective; (2) the ‘(de)familialization’ and ‘(de)genderization’ perspectives are mutually irreplaceable; and (3) there is a need to conceptualize the theoretical relationship between these two perspectives. The article further proposes to use the theoretical framework of Amartya Sen's Capability Approach (CA) to reinterpret both analytical perspectives with a dual advantage using that approach would lend. It first conceptualizes the de‐familializing and de‐genderizing policies as ‘means’ designed to increase peoples' ‘capabilities’ to achieve ‘valued functionings’ and not ultimate goals of policies that aim to change people's ‘functionings’. Thus, it addresses the criticism of de‐familialization and de‐genderization as policy strategies that enforce certain, potentially controversial ideals of societal and familial relations. Second, by using crucial CA concepts, i.e. ‘means’, ‘capabilities’ and ‘functionings’, it refines the interpretation of policy‐, regime‐ and outcome‐oriented analyses (typologies). As a result, it clarifies the distinction between these types of analyses and highlights the advantages of both a policy approach and a redefined regime approach.     

Harsanyi’s critical rule utilitarianism

In his recent book,Rational Behaviour and Bargaining Equilibrium In Games and Social Situations, John C. Harsanyi devotes a chapter to his new theory of morality, which he calls ‘Critical Rule Utilitarianism’, and which contains his solution to the problem of the interpersonal comparison of utility. After a detailed exposition of his theory, arguments will be presented to show that:

1. there are certain formal difficulties in the solution that he offers which leads to a rejection of the axiom that there is to be agreement between an individualj’s personal preferences and individuali’s (i ≠j) extended utility function out of which the social welfare function is to be constructed; and
2. Harsanyi’s theory of critical rule utilitarianism cannot be accepted as a theory of morality because it presupposes a more fundamental theory in its actual construction.

     

Dialogical Demand: Discursive Position Repertoires for a Local and Global UK Sex Industry

The increasing incidence of ‘trafficking’ has added an incontestably disturbing dimension to the contestable nature of a ‘non‐trafficked’ UK sex industry. Men who buy sex remain under‐researched, though some studies have indicated ambivalence within men's attitudes. This study combines a critical discursive psychology in support of dialogical self theory. Secondary data, from prominent UK media resources, were analysed using Edley's (2001) method of combining ‘interpretative repertoires’, ‘ideological dilemmas’ and ‘subject positions’. Contrasting discursive practices indicative of wider ideological conflict were found. Discursive concepts were ‘mapped’ onto Hermans and Hermans‐Konopka's (2010) ‘I‐positions’ to explore how these potentially dilemmatic positions might be understood in terms of identity production. The function of ‘uncertainty’, particularly salient with the increasing complexity of globalisation, was considered a factor in how men's identities might be limited by the current discursive space. A ‘dialogical’ model of self is introduced as a framework for understanding how men who buy sex might take up new, inclusive, positions. A corollary is reflected upon; that researchers, activists and buyers alike, who remain ideologically inflexible, may be sustaining the conditions for coercion through their contribution to the discursive conflict. The synthesis of discursive and dialogical analytical tools is recommended for investigating the production of selves in contested spaces.