AN ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF "TRIAL HEAT" POLLS DURING THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

There is little systematic research on the multitude of factorsthat influence the accuracy of poll results. This article examinessix methodological factors directly under the survey researcher'scontrol and two exogenous factors concerning the nature of publicopinion as sources of survey error. Data for this study comefrom 56 "trial heat" polls conducted during the last month ofthe 1992 presidential election. The most important variablesinfluencing survey accuracy were the number of days a poll isin the field, which increased total accuracy one-half of a percentagepoint per day; conducting interviews only on weekdays (and thusonly during evening hours), which reduced overall accuracy ratesby more than 1 percentage point; and conducting a "tracking"poll, which increased accuracy by about 1.5 points. Sample sizewas not related to accuracy rates. Results also indicated thatsampling frames of "likely voters" (relative to "registeredvoters") tended to overestimate support for George Bush andunderestimate support for Ross Perot, that interviewing onlyon weekdays led to overestimates of support for Bush, and thatstrict methods of defining a respondent as "supporting" a candidatehurt the two newcomers, Perot and Bill Clinton, more than Bush.In light of these data it is recommended that the common practiceof reporting "margins of error" based solely on sample sizesbe abandoned as misleading and replaced by a more empiricallyjustifiable measure based more on response rates.     

ELECTORAL CONSEQUENCES OF "WINNING" TELEVISED CAMPAIGN DEBATES

This study explores the long-neglected impact of a candidatebeing perceived as the "winner" of political debates on individualvoting behaviour in West Germany. While there has been muchresearch on the effects of debates on perceptions of candidatepolicy stands and personality atttributes, there has been littlework that attempts to guage how much "winning" the debate helpsa candidate at the polls. I investigate this process with straightforwardprobit models of the vote choice, including party identificationand candiate evaluation as well as whether the individual judgeda particular candidate as the "winner", or "fared best" in thedebate. These models are run for the 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1983elections in West Germany. The results show that there is aconsistent impact of "winning" the debate on individual votingchoices in West Germany; controlling for party and other factors,there is a significantly higher probability of voting for theparty of the politician the respondent feels won the contest.Debates, then, do ultimately make a substabtial electoral difference.     

"SECRET BALLOTS" AND SELF-REPORTS IN AN EXIT-POLL EXPERIMENT

A controlled exit-poll experiment on Election Day (November3, 1992) shows that refusals to answer questions and other evasiveforms of responding were significantly lower when respondentswere given a self-administered "secret-ballot" questionnairethan when they were interviewed face-to-face. While there weresome suggestive interactions of this mode-of-data collectioneffect with age and sex, and with the partisan atmosphere ofthe precinct in which the interviews were conducted, they wereborderline in significance, inconsistent in pattern, or difficuitto interpret. More important, comparisons with official electionreturns (the truth) indicated that the secret-ballot techniquewas more accurate than were face-to-face interviews in estimatingthe final outcome on the most socially sensitive of three self-reportedvotes: a vote for or against a tax levy for elderly services.Using a genuine secret ballot in the tradition of the olderGallup preelection polls can thus increase the validity of self-reportsin exit polls today.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

Comment apprécier une politique policière ? : Le premier ministère Sarkozy (7 mai 2002-30 mars 2004)

How to assess the effects of the policy of Nicolas Sarkozy, Home Secretary in France from May 2002 to March 2004? An analysis of the statistics and, in particular, of the way they were construed reveals that the results were ambiguous, because law enforcement was centered on the state's duty to enforce the law while police services were being asked to show a decrease in delinquency so as to prove that the new policy was effective. On the other hand, an analysis of polls about how public opinion felt about law and order indicates that the minister's tough talk was effective to a degree, especially when feelings of insecurity were strongly politicized prior to presidential elections in April 2002. This analysis sheds light on the distance between the practical and purely political effectiveness of a policy of law and order.     

Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less

Changes in journalism—including newsroom cutbacks, anemphasis on repackaging secondhand material, and the demandsof 24-hour news—have expanded the reliance on polls asnews, including polls of a sort once considered not reliablefor publication, and led to a more superficial understandingof the 2004 presidential race. The proliferation of outletsoffering news, which has resulted in greater competition foraudience, has also intensified the motivation of using pollsin part for their marketing value rather than purely their probativejournalistic value. The more "synthetic" style of contemporaryjournalism has increased the tendency to allow polls to createa context for journalists to explain and organize other news—becomingthe lens through which reporters see and order a more interpretativenews environment. A greater dependence on horse race trackingpolls by the media has reinforced these tendencies and furtherthinned the public’s understanding toward who won andaway from why. Growing audience skepticism and political polarizationhave created an environment of distrust about the methodologyand integrity of polling. All of these factors, in turn, arefrustrating the efforts of academic and commercial pollstersto maintain standards and deepen understanding among journalistsabout public opinion research and how to use it as journalism.     

CHANGING RACIAL LABELS: FROM "COLORED" TO "NEGRO" TO "BLACK" TO "AFRICAN AMERICAN"

Labels play an important role in defining groups and individualswho belong to the groups. This has been especially true forracial and ethnic groups in general and for Blacks in particular.Over the past century the standard term for Blacks has shiftedfrom "Colored" to "Negro" to "Black" and now perhaps to "AfricanAmerican." The changes can be seen as attempts by Blacks toredefine themselves and to gain respect and standing in a societythat has held them to be subordinate and inferior.     

Toward an Open-Source Methodology: What We Can Learn from the Blogosphere

During the 2004 election campaign, millions of political enthusiastsdownloaded poll data on the Internet, while "Weblogs" provideda new forum for commentary on survey methodology. At the sametime, traditional public opinion surveys came under pressurefrom declining cooperation, contact, and coverage rates, andmany automated and Internet surveys began to proliferate. Thisarticle provides some examples of "blog" commentary on automatedand Internet polls and then explores the lessons to be learnedfrom the spirit of innovation and openness of the Internet inevaluating new survey methods such as automated polls and thoseconducted over the Internet.     

Asking about the future: methodological insights from energy biographies

Temporality is fundamental to qualitative longitudinal (QLL) research, inherent in the design of returning to participants over time, often to explore moments of change. Previous research has indicated that talking about the future can be difficult, yet there has been insufficient discussion of methodological developments to address these challenges. This paper presents insights from the Energy Biographies project, which has taken a QLL and multimodal approach to investigating how everyday energy use can be understood in relation to biographical pasts and imagined futures. In particular, we detail innovative techniques developed within the project (e.g. SMS photograph activities) to elicit data on anticipated futures, in ways that engender thinking about participants’ own biographical futures and wider societal changes. We conclude by considering some of the significant benefits and challenges such techniques present. These methodological insights have a wider relevance beyond the substantive topic for those interested in eliciting data about futures in qualitative research.     

Pollsters Under Attack: 2004 Election Incivility and Its Consequences

The 2004 election was remarkable for a number of reasons, includingthe harsh, personal attacks from all parts of the politicalspectrum on a number of media pollsters. The idea of "killingthe messenger" has been around long enough for the phenomenonto have its own name, but it appears to have intensified muchmore than in the past. The article details the experiences oftwo polls and their pollsters, one national and one statewide.These attacks are part of a growing practice of trying to mitigateperceived damage by any message in the political marketplace.The article suggests that while there are positive effects fromthese developments, including heightened awareness among votersof polling methods, negative effects can damage the credibilityof specific polls and their sponsors, as well as the professionin general, including market and other public opinion research.The article ends with a call for researchers to be more openwith their methods and measures, and to strongly defend properlydone research against critics; for journalists to be more discerningin evaluating poll criticisms before publishing them; and forprofessional organizations to help the public better understandpolling, market research, and other public opinion researchand their benefits to society.     

The transparent corporation and organized community

The aim of this special issue of Public Relations Review is to raise questions for further discussion and research about how technology is changing the industry of public information dissemination and persuasion, and how the public changes its mind about events, social issues, high profile images, and information itself. Unprecedented access to information through consumer and citizen Net-works has created the “transparency” in corporate life that has overturned conventional ideas about ownership in organizations, reshaping popular images of Big Business carved by partisan politics. Corporate Social Responsibility, also called “stakeholder capitalism”, suggests that prosperous business owes something back to the community from which it draws its profits.The widespread use of pseudo-polls by policy advocates in public relations campaigns and the media ownership of polls have undermined public confidence in the credibility of the phrase “what the public thinks”. While technology diminishes the ability of corporations, politicians, and governments, to control or define a public image, the individual enjoys unprecedented access to information and a newfound advantage in the sphere of public influence. The currents and undercurrents of the life cycle of public information, disbelief, persuasion and doubt pose profound questions for public relations inquiry, on an ethical as well as technical level.     

Conformity to AAPOR Standards in Newspaper Reporting of Public Opinion Polls

This study examines three newspapers' level of conformity toAAPOR standards of minimal disclosure in their reporting ofpublic opinion polls. Analysis of 116 polls published in theperiod of 1972–79 indicates a dramatic increase in thenumber of polls reported, but not in the level of conformityto AAPOR standards. Conformity is higher when the polls concernelections rather than nonelection topics, and when newspapersthemselves, rather than external sources, are the sources ofthe polls.     

Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics

Only in recent years has the "likely voter" technology beenextended to polls well in advance of an election. In the caseof the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Galluptracking polls indicated considerable fluctuations in likelyvoter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registeredvoters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup’s likelyvoter model exaggerates the reported volatility of voter preferencesduring the campaign. Much of the reported variation in candidatepreference reported by Gallup in that election is not due toactual voter shifts in preference but rather to changes in thecomposition of Gallup’s likely voter pool. The findingshighlight dangers of relying on samples of likely voters whenpolling well before Election Day.     

Consequences of reducing nonresponse in a national telephone survey

Critics of public opinion polls often claim that methodological shortcuts taken to collect timely data produce biased results. This study compares two random digit dial national telephone surveys that used identical questionnaires but very different levels of effort: a "Standard" survey conducted over a 5-day period that used a sample of adults who were home when the interviewer called, and a "Rigorous" survey conducted over an 8-week period that used random selection from among all adult household members. Response rates, computed according to AAPOR guidelines, were 60.6 percent for the Rigorous and 36.0 percent for the Standard study. Nonetheless, the two surveys produced similar results. Across 91 comparisons, no difference exceeded 9 percentage points, and the average difference was about 2 percentage points. Most of the statistically significant differences were among demographic items. Very few significant differences were found on attention to media and engagement in politics, social trust and connectedness, and most social and political attitudes, including even those toward surveys.     

Racism,class ethos and place: the value of context in narratives about asylum‐seekers

The British public view asylum‐seekers in generally negative terms. Yet whilst there are an abundance of reports and opinion polls that measure levels of hostility in order to fuel political ‘debate’ very little is known about how asylum seekers are spoken about in more quotidian contexts. Based on an ethnographic study of racism in Southend‐on‐Sea, Essex this paper identifies two kinds of narrative (abstract truths and context‐dependent stories) commonly used by established members of the community to speak about asylum‐seekers. The paper then seeks to explain why more affluent, suburban residents of the town tend to draw upon the abstract narrative while less wealthy, centrally located residents are more likely to regale context‐dependent stories about asylum seekers. An explanation for this socio‐spatial phenomenon is constructed around a Bourdieusian theory of practice that unravels local class relations and maps out a field for local symbolic prestige. Finally this microanalysis is used as a springboard to consider the wider relationship between racist narratives and social and cultural reproduction.     

WHY THEY LIKED IKE: Tradition, Crisis, and Heroic Leadership

Much is known about Dwight Eisenhower's accomplishments as wartime general and postwar president; however, little is known about the reasons for his extraordinary popularity. Drawing from opinion polls, popular media, and related sources this article shows how Eisenhower's achievements and public conduct resonated with the concerns and values of his generation. "Symbolic leadership" theory and the "action theory" of heroic leadership frame this twofold articulation of Eisenhower's midcentury image, but we place it in a broader perspective centered on tradition, crisis, and generational change. We thus explain not only why Eisenhower's reputation was so strong during the postwar years but also why it declined so sharply after his death, even while other American leaders' reputations remained intact.     

"DON'T KNOW" BOXES IN FACTUAL QUESTIONS IN A MAIL QUESTIONNAIRE: EFFECTS ON LEVEL AND QUALITY OF RESPONSE

This article summarizes the findings of an experiment to evaluatethe effect of "Don't Know" (DK) boxes in a mail questionnaireconsisting of factual questions. In a split-panel test, halfof the respondents received a questionnaire with DK boxes andthe other half received a questionnaire without DK boxes. Theoverall response rates were the same for the two versions. Thequestionnaire version without DK boxes obtained an appreciablyhigher rate of substantive responses for many items. However,there were few large substantive changes in response distributionsbetween the two versions, and there was no appreciable differencein the response error rates.     

North Americans' Attitudes Toward Illegal Drugs

Public opinion polls conducted from 1969 to 2003 found a variety of opinions on the use, possession, and legalization of marijuana. Public opinion about legalizing marijuana use is increasing, but it is also increasing toward harsher penalties for those who possess a small amount of marijuana. Public opinion regarding the legalization of illegal drugs appears to be influenced by the times. The majority of Americans increasingly believe that the country has made some progress in dealing with the problems of illegal drugs, but Americans are also reporting more difficulty within their families related to marijuana. This article examines trends based in public opinion polls on the use of marijuana in the United States and Canada and discusses the social and political history of marijuana and the biophysical effects, medical uses, definitions, and previous research related to marijuana.     

The Ethics of Social Research with Children: An Overview1

This paper attempts to provide an overview of ethical issues related to social research with children. It sets the discussion in the context of current debates about researching children in the UK, and explores the extent to which children should be regarded as similar to, or different from, adults in social research, focusing on how children are positioned as vulnerable, incompetent and relatively powerless in society in general, and how this conceptualisation of children needs to be taken into account in social research. The paper concludes with some practical and methodological suggestions.