年龄别生育率与总和生育率间接估计方法与应用研究

本文讨论了人口分析技术与遗传算法相结合的年龄别生育率与总和生育率间接估计方法,并以人口普查数据为例展示年龄别生育率与总和生育率间接估计方法的建模过程与实施步骤,同时指出今后有待深入研究的问题。     

Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility

In this article, we show how stochastic diffusion models can be used to forecast demographic cohort processes using the Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models. Such models have been used deterministically in the past, but both behavioral theory and forecast utility are improved by introducing randomness and uncertainty into the standard differential equations governing population processes. Our approach is to add time-series stochasticity to linearized versions of each process. We derive both Monte Carlo and analytic methods for estimating forecast uncertainty. We apply our methods to several examples of marriage and fertility, extending them to simultaneous forecasting of multiple cohorts and to processes restricted by factors such as declining fecundity.     

Making Comparisons of Demographic Aggregates more Meaningful: A Case of Life Expectancies and Total Fertility Rates

With the recent emphasis on human development, development researchers are making frequent use of aggregate demographic measures in describing development experiences and more so while linking health and development. And it is often seen that comparison of these demographic aggregates across space and time is naïve given their complex construct on one hand and the implied meaning on the other. Are these comparisons across the board valid for the meanings ascribed to them? Or are the stated achievements as well as projected trends based on them reliable? This paper attempts to illustrate these concerns taking the twin aggregate measures frequently in use namely the life expectancy and Total fertility Rates. The primary focus here has been to link additional dimension of the same phenomenon (referring to survival or fertility here) which does not follow the principle of matched ordering while read along with these aggregates. Taking into account these additional dimensions, the magnitude of the differences in these aggregate measures gets moderated and their comparison across levels (between lower and higher) becomes more consistent.     

历时研究与事件史分析

本文分析了截面研究与历时研究对于因果关系研究的有效性,论述了不同类型的历时研究,提出了本源性变化的新概念,并对事件史分析进行了简要的介绍.     

孩次递进比的计算与调整生育指标的理解

文章就姜全保的商榷订正了根据普查数据计算年龄别孩次递进比公式,并进一步探讨了生育递进指标与去进度效应总和生育率指标的应用。     

总和生育率的测算及分析

文章针对现有人口抽样数据的特点和缺陷,通过对总和生育率指标的分析和改进,测算了1994~2004年中国的总和生育率,探讨了影响该指标变化的各种因素。结果表明,中国的总和生育率从1994~1996年的1.80左右下降到2001~2004年的1.62左右,其中2000年为1.66;影响中国总和生育率的主要因素有经济发展水平、一般生育率、生育年龄和城镇化进程等。     

试论时期总和生育率、终身生育率与政策生育率的关系

通过对总和生育率(TFR)、终身生育率(CFR)与政策生育率(PFR)的概念及相关数据分析,论证总和生育率与政策生育率是完全不同的概念,不可直接比较。在特定条件下TFR、CFR和政策生育率会产生差异,在一个国家生育水平下降的历史时期,TFR必然小于当年49岁组女性的CFR;"超生率"、"未婚率"、"未育率"和"不孕率"的变化,决定了政策生育率与终身生育率的差异。借鉴日本经济与人口发展相关数据,可以相信由平均初婚年龄推迟、女性有偶率下降导致的生育水平下降很可能成为对我国人口均衡发展的最大潜在威胁。因此,当前以及今后相当的时期内,我国的政策生育率应高于1.8。     

Migration and Pacific Mortality: Estimating Migration Effects on Pacific Mortality Rates Using Bayesian Models

Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand–born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand’s immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.     

Women,Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy

Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables’ influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics—namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables—female-related predictors, in particular—have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.     

真实队列年龄别生育率估算方法与应用研究

本文以时期育龄妇女年龄别生育率为基础,提出真实队列年龄别生育率估算方法,并通过1950～1981年全国妇女分孩次年龄别生育率数据验证其可行性和可靠性。在实际应用中,可用该估算方法研究递进生育模式及其相关问题,尤其是在调整生育政策的时间窗口,估算生育一孩的育龄妇女规模和结构,以及符合生育政策但尚未生育二孩的育龄妇女规模和结构,为政府制定生育政策和人口规划提供决策依据。     

Population Dynamics: Poverty,Inequality, and Self-Regulating Fertility Rates

Population growth without a parallel increase in capital impoverishes any society and tends to deepen inequality. The system is dynamic because people who perceive or foresee contracting economic opportunity usually restrict family size. Worsening poverty feeds back into the loop to slow, then stop further population growth.     

结构方程模型在妇女生育行为研究中的应用:以深圳市为例

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据 ,运用结构方程模型 (SEM)对深圳流动育龄妇女的生育行为进行了尝试性的分析 ,克服了传统统计方法无法处理自变量测量误差的局限性。研究结果表明 ,对生育行为最大的影响因素是生育意愿。经济因素对生育行为的影响是双向的 ,一方面经济水平的提高可以产生孩子质量 -数量替代效应 ;另一方面在生育意愿没有改变前 ,经济水平提高对生育行为也会有促进作用。最后 ,提出了结构方程模型在生育行为研究和计划生育实践的应用前景     

Variations in Natural Fertility: The Effect of Lactation and Other Determinants

The analysis focuses on average waiting times to a fertile conception, as derived from non-contraceptive exposure in second and higher-order birth intervals. Life-table estimates are derived from exposure in the two-year periods preceding the survey, for 20 surveys in Africa, Asia and Latin America undertaken as part of the WFS programme. Differences in the waiting time to conception are examined as a function of the duration of lactation and post partum abstinence. In addition, the extent to which variations in waiting times are produced by country and regional effects, and effects due to age, duration of marriage and parity are examined. The analysis points out the dangers of deriving estimates of natural fertility from the sub-group of women who never breastfed.     

Modernization and Tradition in the Recent History of Italian Fertility

The secular decline of Italian fertility, started in the last decade of the nineteenth century, came to an end in the early 1950'sand has recovered slightly in the last fifteen years. Italian experience seems to follow, with a twenty-year lag, the experience of the more advanced western European populations. At present, with an average of 2.5 children per marriage, Italian fertility is very close to the French and to the average European level.At the regional level, two contrasting patterns can be detected. On one side stands the very low fertility of the North and of the Center, mostly below replacement in the last thirty years;on the other, the still high fertility of the South.In the North and in the Center, where the decline started earlier, fertility has fallen well below replacement level in the last thirty years. In the South, where the decline started in the late 1920's and early 1930's, a large family system still prevails, and the spreading of voluntary control faces barriers setup by a long historyof cultural isolation,attachment to tradition and religion. In the last 15 years, however, the gap has narrowed slowly, more because of an upturn of fertility in the North and in the Center than because of the decline in the South.Another interesting feature of Italian fertility is low class differentials: the fertility of the most prolific segment (farmers, farm laborers) is only 20 percent higher than the fertility of the less prolific professional groups. Finally, Italian experience provides an interesting example of the changing relationship linking the economic level of the population and fertility changes; in 1931-51 a negative correlation linked the changes in fertility to the economic level of the region, while in 1951-61 and 1961-66 a very high and positive correlation can be observed.As for the future trends in fertility, two factors may have an important role. In the first place, on the one hand, the economic policy of the government, aiming at reducing the economic gap between the South and the rest of the country, may accelerate the leveling of regional fertility differentials. The same effect, on the other hand, may be reached by more liberal legislation, now under way, for birth control and family planning propaganda.     

The Relationship between Birth History and Current Fertility in Developing Countries

The aim of this research is to find a model of fertility in terms of ‘birth-history’ factors which is common to a diversity of developing countries. Data for nine WFS countries are analysed. The analysis is essentially a birth-interval life-table analysis with regression where factor effects are allowed to vary smoothly over time since previous birth. Strong evidence for a common model is found, with surprisingly similar patterns in the parameters emerging for each country. The main components of the model may be interpreted in terms of ‘tempo’ of previous reproduction, age-related infecundity, and birth-order-related fertility control.     

对解放后我国居民生育意愿变化情况的历史考察

生育意愿是人口学和社会学领域的一个重要研究话题,其转变受社会经济发展水平的影响,是生育率下降和人口转变的前提条件。本文运用历史考察和文献分析的方法。主要从生育目的、意愿生育子女数和恚愚生育性别三个雏度来探讨我国居民生育意愿的变化情况,摸索其中的变化规律,进而提出国家和政府应针对不同地区和不同人群。制定相应的、灵活而更具可操作性的计划生育政策,使生育政策在调节生育率水平的同时兼顾人们的生育意愿。     

Multidimensional Life Table Estimation of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components

Using discrete-time survival models of parity progression and illustrative data from the Philippines, this article develops a multivariate multidimensional life table of nuptiality and fertility, the dimensions of which are age, parity, and duration in parity. The measures calculated from this life table include total fertility rate (TRF), total marital fertility rate (TMFR), parity progression ratios (PPR), age-specific fertility rates, mean and median ages at first marriage, mean and median closed birth intervals, and mean and median ages at childbearing by child’s birth order and for all birth orders combined. These measures are referred to collectively as “TFR and its components.” Because the multidimensional life table is multivariate, all measures derived from it are also multivariate in the sense that they can be tabulated by categories or selected values of one socioeconomic variable while controlling for other socioeconomic variables. The methodology is applied to birth history data, in the form of actual birth histories from a fertility survey or reconstructed birth histories derived from a census or household survey. The methodology yields period estimates as well as cohort estimates of the aforementioned measures.     

2000年中国人口总量和妇女生育率水平研究

2000年中国的人口总量和妇女的生育率水平是20多年来人口学界一直关注的课题。2000年普查登记人口为124 261万,比1999年和1998年年度统计公报的人口还要少,说明人口漏报问题已经达到中国人口统计体制无法包容的程度。文章按照中国历年小学招生数计算出2000年普查时0～16岁人口漏报5 378万。据此,2000年中国人口普查时的总人口应是13O 885万(假使存在1.81％漏报率)或者129 889万(不存在1.81％漏报率)。按照2000年普查公报人口126 583万计算,1982～2000年中国妇女平均生育率接近2.3;如果按照文章中提到的13亿左右的人口计算,同期妇女则平均生育了2.3个以上的孩子。