Cursed Equilibrium

There is evidence that people do not fully take into account how other people's actions depend on these other people's information. This paper defines and applies a new equilibrium concept in games with private information, cursed equilibrium, which assumes that each player correctly predicts the distribution of other players' actions, but underestimates the degree to which these actions are correlated with other players' information. We apply the concept to common‐values auctions, where cursed equilibrium captures the widely observed phenomenon of the winner's curse, and to bilateral trade, where cursedness predicts trade in adverse‐selections settings for which conventional analysis predicts no trade. We also apply cursed equilibrium to voting and signalling models. We test a single‐parameter variant of our model that embeds Bayesian Nash equilibrium as a special case and find that parameter values that correspond to cursedness fit a broad range of experimental datasets better than the parameter value that corresponds to Bayesian Nash equilibrium.     

Managing Co‐creation Design: A Strategic Approach to Innovation

Co‐creation offers firms and their network of actors significant opportunities for innovation, as each actor offers access to new resources through a process of resource integration. However, despite the significant advantages that co‐creation can offer, there is surprisingly little research providing a strategic approach for identifying the most advantageous co‐creation opportunities, especially when many possible options are available. Recently, scholars have called for research that develops tools and processes related to co‐creation. This study addresses these priorities, making two contributions. First, in contrast to previous work considering co‐creation more generally, or focusing on one specific form only, e.g. co‐production, this paper offers a detailed and granular approach to co‐creation design. A co‐creation design framework is developed, which incorporates multiple design dimensions and categories that can reveal new co‐creation opportunities. Second, the research extends the application of a design approach, specifically within the context of co‐creative activities. The authors use field‐based research with senior executives to develop a framework that includes key co‐creation design elements. A morphological approach is used to explore how a lead firm can identify attractive co‐creation opportunities. An innovation solution in one organization provides an illustration of how the co‐creation design framework can be applied.     

Prices,Markups, and Trade Reform

This paper examines how prices, markups, and marginal costs respond to trade liberalization. We develop a framework to estimate markups from production data with multi‐product firms. This approach does not require assumptions on the market structure or demand curves faced by firms, nor assumptions on how firms allocate their inputs across products. We exploit quantity and price information to disentangle markups from quantity‐based productivity, and then compute marginal costs by dividing observed prices by the estimated markups. We use India's trade liberalization episode to examine how firms adjust these performance measures. Not surprisingly, we find that trade liberalization lowers factory‐gate prices and that output tariff declines have the expected pro‐competitive effects. However, the price declines are small relative to the declines in marginal costs, which fall predominantly because of the input tariff liberalization. The reason for this incomplete cost pass‐through to prices is that firms offset their reductions in marginal costs by raising markups. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity and variability in markups across firms and time and suggest that producers benefited relative to consumers, at least immediately after the reforms.     

Managing Supply Chain Execution: Monitoring Timeliness and Correctness via Individualized Trace Data

Improvements in information technologies provide new opportunities to control and improve business processes based on real‐time performance data. A class of data we call individualized trace data (ITD) identifies the real‐time status of individual entities as they move through execution processes, such as an individual product passing through a supply chain or a uniquely identified mortgage application going through an approval process. We develop a mathematical framework which we call the State‐Identity‐Time (SIT) Framework to represent and manipulate ITD at multiple levels of aggregation for different managerial purposes. Using this framework, we design a pair of generic quality measures—timeliness and correctness—for the progress of entities through a supply chain. The timeliness and correctness metrics provide behavioral visibility that can help managers to grasp the dynamics of supply chain behavior that is distinct from asset visibility such as inventory. We develop special quality control methods using this framework to address the issue of overreaction that is common among managers faced with a large volume of fast‐changing data. The SIT structure and its associated methods inform managers on if, when, and where to react. We illustrate our approach using simulations based on real RFID data from a Walmart RFID pilot project.     

Retailer's Response to Alternate Manufacturer's Incentives Under a Single‐Period,Price‐Dependent,Stochastic‐Demand Framework*

This article considers the joint development of the optimal pricing and ordering policies of a profit‐maximizing retailer, faced with (i) a manufacturer trade incentive in the form of a price discount for itself or a rebate directly to the end customer; (ii) a stochastic consumer demand dependent upon the magnitude of the selling price and of the trade incentive, that is contrasted with a riskless demand, which is the expected value of the stochastic demand; and (iii) a single‐period newsvendor‐type framework. Additional analysis includes the development of equal profit policies in either form of trade incentive, an assessment of the conditions under which a one‐dollar discount is more profitable than a one‐dollar rebate, and an evaluation of the impact upon the retailer‐expected profits of changes in either incentive or in the degree of demand uncertainty. A numerical example highlights the main features of the model. The analytical and numerical results clearly show that, as compared to the results for the riskless demand, dealing with uncertainty through a stochastic demand leads to (i) (lower) higher retail prices if additive (multiplicative) error, (ii) lower (higher) pass throughs if additive (multiplicative) error, (iii) higher claw backs in both error structures wherever applicable, and (iv) higher rebates to achieve equivalent profits in both error structures.     

Product Differentiation,Multiproduct Firms,and Estimating the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Productivity

This paper studies whether removing barriers to trade induces efficiency gains for producers. Like almost all empirical work which relies on a production function to recover productivity measures, I do not observe physical output at the firm level. Therefore, it is imperative to control for unobserved prices and demand shocks. I develop an empirical model that combines a demand system with a production function to generate estimates of productivity. I rely on my framework to identify the productivity effects from reduced trade protection in the Belgian textile market. This trade liberalization provides me with observed demand shifters that are used to separate out the associated price, scale, and productivity effects. Using a matched plant–product level data set and detailed quota data, I find that correcting for unobserved prices leads to substantially lower productivity gains. More specifically, abolishing all quota protections increases firm‐level productivity by only 2 percent as opposed to 8 percent when relying on standard measures of productivity. My results beg for a serious reevaluation of a long list of empirical studies that document productivity responses to major industry shocks and, in particular, to opening up to trade. My findings imply the need to study the impact of changes in the operating environment on productivity together with market power and prices in one integrated framework. The suggested method and identification strategy are quite general and can be applied whenever it is important to distinguish between revenue productivity and physical productivity.     

Assessing Markups,Service Quality,and Product Attributes in Music CDs' Internet Retailing

We investigate trade‐offs among markups, service quality, and product attributes across customer, Internet retailer, and wholesaler echelons. Research has documented the reality of retail price dispersion, but little is known about how retail markups, in particular, are related to service quality and product attributes. For example, do Internet retailers deliver superior service in return for high markups? Do product characteristics affect the relationship between service and markups for retailers? To examine these issues, we first developed a model of Internet retail profitability that separates revenues and costs related to sales from other profit sources. This framework allowed us to position our work alongside the extant literature about Internet retailing. Moreover, it led us to synthesize service quality dimensions found in Internet retailing studies. We subsequently developed a critical‐event study based on the profit model and the synthesis of service quality dimensions to delineate service aspects that retailers should emphasize to address buyers' utility. Finally, we collected data from Internet purchases across retailers to isolate markup‐service quality trade‐offs along our delineated service aspects. We find that high markups are associated with superior performance across service quality dimensions. Furthermore, this trade‐off becomes more acutely defined when products with variable popularity are transacted.     

Fast Equilibrium Selection by Rational Players Living in a Changing World

We study a coordination game with randomly changing payoffs and small frictions in changing actions. Using only backwards induction, we find that players must coordinate on the risk‐dominant equilibrium. More precisely, a continuum of fully rational players are randomly matched to play a symmetric 2×2 game. The payoff matrix changes according to a random walk. Players observe these payoffs and the population distribution of actions as they evolve. The game has frictions: opportunities to change strategies arrive from independent random processes, so that the players are locked into their actions for some time. As the frictions disappear, each player ignores what the others are doing and switches at her first opportunity to the risk‐dominant action. History dependence emerges in some cases when frictions remain positive.     

Risk Aversion,Collective Bargaining,and Wages in Germany

We develop an open‐shop model of trade union membership in which workers differ in their risk attitudes, and derive conditions under which the bargained wage will fall and union membership will increase with a general rise in risk aversion. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel we define broad bargaining units and show that wages decline as average risk aversion of union members in these units rises, controlling for individual effects of risk aversion. Given a negative relationship between wages and employment, this suggests that secular changes in risk attitudes, because of an aging workforce or greater female labour force participation, can help to explain variations in the employment performance of unionized economies.     

INFORMATION GATHERING IN ORGANIZATIONS: EQUILIBRIUM,WELFARE, AND OPTIMAL NETWORK STRUCTURE

We model an organization as a game in which all agents share a common decision problem and some level of coordination is necessary between individual actions. Agents have individual private information concerning the task they have to perform, and they share this private information through pairwise channels of communication. We analyze how this communication pattern, modeled by means of a network structure, affects individual behavior and aggregate welfare. In the unique equilibrium of this Bayesian game, each agent's optimal action depends on a properly defined knowledge index that measures how the aggregation of information helps him to infer higher‐order beliefs about other's information after communication. Adding communication channels is not always beneficial for the organization because it can lead to mis‐coordination. We single out the geometry of interagent communication links that the manager could implement in order to improve the organization's performance.     

A Flexible Evaluative Framework for Order Picking Systems

This paper develops a novel framework to evaluate the integral performance of order picking systems with different combinations of storage and order picking policies. The warehousing literature on order picking mostly considers minimizing either elapsed time or distance as the sole objective, whereas warehouse managers in a supply chain have to look beyond single‐dimensional performance and consider trade‐offs among different criteria. Thus managers still need a unified and efficient framework to select a portfolio of appropriate order picking policies from a multi‐criteria and contextual perspective. Our framework—combining data envelopment analysis, ranking and selection, and multiple comparisons—provides an efficient methodology to simultaneously analyze several interrelated problems in order picking systems with multiple performance attributes, such as service levels and operational costs. We demonstrate our approach through comprehensive evaluations of order picking policies in three low‐level, picker‐to‐parts rectangular warehouses facing demand variations.     

Agent‐Based Modeling to Simulate Contamination Events and Evaluate Threat Management Strategies in Water Distribution Systems

In the event of contamination of a water distribution system, decisions must be made to mitigate the impact of the contamination and to protect public health. Making threat management decisions while a contaminant spreads through the network is a dynamic and interactive process. Response actions taken by the utility managers and water consumption choices made by the consumers will affect the hydraulics, and thus the spread of the contaminant plume, in the network. A modeling framework that allows the simulation of a contamination event under the effects of actions taken by utility managers and consumers will be a useful tool for the analysis of alternative threat mitigation and management strategies. This article presents a multiagent modeling framework that combines agent‐based, mechanistic, and dynamic methods. Agents select actions based on a set of rules that represent an individual's autonomy, goal‐based desires, and reaction to the environment and the actions of other agents. Consumer behaviors including ingestion, mobility, reduction of water demands, and word‐of‐mouth communication are simulated. Management strategies are evaluated, including opening hydrants to flush the contaminant and broadcasts. As actions taken by consumer agents and utility operators affect demands and flows in the system, the mechanistic model is updated. Management strategies are evaluated based on the exposure of the population to the contaminant. The framework is designed to consider the typical issues involved in water distribution threat management and provides valuable analysis of threat containment strategies for water distribution system contamination events.     

They Reap but Do Not Sow: How Multinational Corporations Are Putting an End to Virtuous Capitalism

The actions of “world‐based” multinational corporations (MNCs) have effectively decoupled the revenue generation and the production sides of the business equation. This decoupling has led to an end of “virtuous capitalism,” which has widespread ramifications for the societies within highly developed countries as well as those in developing and underdeveloped nations. This article presents an overview of the defining aspects of virtuous corporations and the linkages to virtuous capitalism. It then describes the actions of Apple Computer as emblematic of an MNC that is nonvirtuous in its practices. The article then discusses how the encouragement of globalized trade has prompted the shift away from virtuous capitalism and closes with a summary of possible actions that could reverse the decline in corporate virtue.     

Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks

Decision biases can distort cost‐benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well‐documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk‐cost‐benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk‐reducing regulations. Low‐regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low‐regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example.     

Inequality and Unemployment in a Global Economy

This paper develops a new framework for examining the determinants of wage distributions that emphasizes within‐industry reallocation, labor market frictions, and differences in workforce composition across firms. More productive firms pay higher wages and exporting increases the wage paid by a firm with a given productivity. The opening of trade enhances wage inequality and can either raise or reduce unemployment. While wage inequality is higher in a trade equilibrium than in autarky, gradual trade liberalization first increases and later decreases inequality.     

Understanding the Processes Underlying Inter‐firm Collaboration: Mutual Forbearance and the Principle of Congruity

This paper makes a theoretical innovation by integrating two key principles – mutual forbearance and the principle of congruity – into one general process model. It examines the micro‐mechanisms underlying the formation of a mutual‐forbearance agreement and explicates the role of time and of individual actions. We further understanding of the process of cooperation building by drawing a parallel between early stages of the formation process of mutual forbearance and cooperation, and argue that mutual forbearance may, under certain conditions, lead to long‐term cooperation or, if mismanaged, completely smother any chances of it. A prospective agreement may be put at risk when potential contributions are evaluated differently by each party and no action to mitigate the consequences is taken; even more so in a mutual‐forbearance context when the parties can only observe their counterparts’ actions through the market. Our model takes into account the micro‐mechanisms associated with the time between the actions of one entity/individual (e.g. the top manager) and the reaction of another entity/individual, the boundary conditions of the background to those actions and the alternative actions available during this time. Propositions for further exploration and implications are drawn.     

A Multi‐layered Exploration of the Diversity Management Field: Diversity Discourses,Practices and Practitioners in the UK

This paper presents a multi‐layered exploration of the diversity management field in the UK. In doing so, it aims to address two problematic tendencies in the current diversity research: the focus on single‐level explorations, and the polarization between critical and mainstream approaches. Using Bourdieu's concept of field, I develop a theoretical framework that conceptualizes the field of diversity management in three constituents: diversity discourse, diversity practice and diversity practitioners. The framework is used to analyse empirical evidence generated through semi‐structured interviews with 19 diversity managers of large private‐sector companies. This study reveals the presence of a gap between the diversity discourse and practice, and the absence of any standard set of qualifications and skills requirement for practitioners. The findings demonstrate the twofold role of discourse in drawing the boundaries of the diversity management field. First, it is instrumental in constructing diversity management as distinct from equal opportunities. Second, the use discourse functions as a mechanism to control the entry of practitioners into this field, which otherwise has low entry barriers. The paper offers a contribution to management research in general and equality and diversity research in particular through its original use of Bourdieuan sociology in an empirical study.     

Knowledge Management and Balanced Scorecard Outcomes: Exploring the Importance of Interpretation,Learning and Internationality

The topics of shared interpretation, organizational learning and firm internationalization have been studied extensively. Though considered important factors that shape the international competitive landscape, research synthesizing these interrelated areas has been limited to date. We use the balanced scorecard as a framework for assessing how organizational learning and sensemaking influence actions relating to a global marketing strategy and subsequent financial performance. Using data from 169 multinational corporations, findings indicate that a specific set of knowledge activities is related to balanced scorecard outcomes (e.g. customer performance, innovation and learning performance, and internal process performance). The hypothesized importance of customer performance is confirmed as the only balanced scorecard outcome significantly related to financial performance. A post hoc analysis revealed further insights for future research opportunities. Overall, these results suggest that firms can improve their competitive position by emphasizing shared interpretation within the organization and including balanced scorecard elements when assessing performance.     

THE RISE OF THE EAST AND THE FAR EAST: GERMAN LABOR MARKETS AND TRADE INTEGRATION

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and “the East” (China and Eastern Europe) in the period 1988–2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross‐regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade flows of other high‐income countries as instruments for regional import and export exposure. We find that the rise of the East in the world economy caused substantial job losses in German regions specialized in import‐competing industries, both in manufacturing and beyond. Regions specialized in export‐oriented industries, however, experienced even stronger employment gains and lower unemployment. In the aggregate, we estimate that this trade integration has caused some 442,000 additional jobs in the economy and contributed to retaining the manufacturing sector in Germany. This is almost exclusively driven by the rise of Eastern Europe, not by China. We also conduct an analysis at the individual worker level, and find that trade had a stabilizing overall effect on employment relationships.     

PLATFORM OWNERSHIP

We develop a theoretical framework of trade on a platform on which buyers and sellers interact, and compare the impact of different platform ownership structures. If two‐sided network effects are strong, monopoly ownership induces more trade than dispersed ownership and is therefore socially preferable. Independent of the strength of network effects, monopoly ownership dominates a club‐like ownership structure where incumbent owners can exclude potential entrants. Under dispersed ownership, vertical integration tends to increase welfare as it allows the internalization of demand externalities. Allowing incumbent platform owners to exclude potential entrants hurts buyers but can raise welfare. (JEL: L10, D40)