Strategic Revenue Sharing with Daily Deal Sites: A Competitive Analysis

Promoting through daily deal sites has become popular in the past few years. Groupon is perhaps the best known provider of these promotions (also known as online discount vouchers) to customers. Daily deals differ from traditional coupons on three important dimensions: (i) They are not offered to consumers directly by firms but are offered through an intermediary, (ii) the promotional depth offered by these localized promotions tends to be higher, and (iii) consumers prepay for the discount vouchers, and then the daily deals site reimburses the retailer a prespecified negotiated percentage of each paid voucher. In this study, we build a theoretical model to explore the profitability of undertaking a daily deals campaign by firms. Our analysis identifies the role of types of consumers in the market, relative bargaining power of the local firms, revenue sharing agreements, and market characteristics, such as degree of product substitutability and extent of competition, on the profitability attained through daily deal promotions. Surprisingly, when demand spillovers exist, an asymmetric outcome, with one firm offering an online discount voucher and the competing firm not offering an online discount voucher, is an equilibrium under some conditions.      

The Gender Wage Gap and Poverty in Colombia

Abstract. Using 19 years of cross‐section wage data, we look at the trend of the ratio of male to female wages in Colombia. First, we observe a long‐term trend towards an increase in the gender wage gap that may be related to new labor regulations giving more protection to women and thereby raising the cost of female employment for firms. Second, we measure the impact on poverty of the increasing gap by producing estimates of the income distribution for the subsequent years had the wage gap remained at the low level it used to be in the early 1990s. As mainly low‐skilled women suffered from the increase in the wage gap, we find that the phenomenon contributed to an overall increase in poverty during the decade.     

Toward an Effective Design of Behavioral Health Care Delivery: An Empirical Analysis of Care for Depression

A criticism of behavioral health care delivery is that it has largely missed the social determinants of behavioral health disorders and their diagnosis. Toward addressing this criticism, this study evaluates the delivery of behavioral health care as a part of primary care operations. Focusing on the treatment of depression, the study results show that: (i) primary care clinics operating in communities with superior social environment characteristics are associated with improved depression outcomes in the short term, and (ii) psychosocial resources (social and emotional support) and the built environment (man‐made resources and infrastructure to support human activity) of primary care clinics are associated with sustaining the improvement in depression outcome in the long term. Centering our attention on IT‐enabled, evidence‐based, and affordable primary care as mechanisms that can enable the integration of behavioral and medical care delivery, the results suggest that IT‐enabled and evidence‐based primary care are associated with improvements in depression outcomes. We also find that the effect of improving the affordability of behavioral health care delivery depends on the community's socioeconomic status. Primary care clinics in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities practicing cost‐containment are associated with improvements in depression outcomes, and, therefore, can contribute toward reducing disparities in behavioral health care delivery. Counter to our original expectations, we find that the effect of evidence‐based care on improvements on depression outcomes increases as the availability of medically trained behavioral health care specialists practicing in a community increases lending support to concerns that primary care clinics in resource‐rich communities obtain greater benefit from quality improvement interventions.     

THE IMPACT OF INCOME SHOCKS ON HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM COHORT DATA

We study the effect of permanent income innovations on health for a prime‐aged population. Using information on more than half a million individuals sampled over a 25‐year period in three different cross‐sectional surveys we aggregate data by date‐of‐birth cohort to construct a “synthetic cohort” data set with details of income, expenditure, socio‐demographic factors, health outcomes, and selected risk factors. We then exploit structural and arguably exogenous changes in cohort incomes over the 1980s and 1990s to uncover causal effects of permanent income shocks on health. We find that such income innovations have little effect on a wide range of health measures, but do lead to increases in mortality and risky health behaviour. (JEL: I10, D31)     

What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?

We show that deterioration in household balance sheets, or the housing net worth channel, played a significant role in the sharp decline in U.S. employment between 2007 and 2009. Counties with a larger decline in housing net worth experience a larger decline in non‐tradable employment. This result is not driven by industry‐specific supply‐side shocks, exposure to the construction sector, policy‐induced business uncertainty, or contemporaneous credit supply tightening. We find little evidence of labor market adjustment in response to the housing net worth shock. There is no significant expansion of the tradable sector in counties with the largest decline in housing net worth. Further, there is little evidence of wage adjustment within or emigration out of the hardest hit counties.     

THE WELL‐BEING OF THE ELDERLY AND WAGE ARREARS IN RUSSIA

About one‐third of households with elderly were not paid their wages during the mid‐1990s in Russia. Applying matching estimations to a nationally representative survey, the study shows that wage arrears had detrimental effects on the well‐being of the elderly in these families. Salaries in households with wage arrears dropped by almost two‐thirds, income fell by more than one‐third, and poverty doubled. Behavioral responses were only partly effective. The net revenue loss amounted to five‐sixths of the wage shock for men, and nine‐tenths of the wage shock for women. The elderly cut back on food expenses by reducing food purchases and adjusting their diet towards cheaper calories, economising on expenses equal to around one‐quarter of the wage reduction. Caloric and protein intakes dropped, although less than income, and the nutritional content of food consumption with regard to vitamins and minerals deteriorated. Wage arrears worsened male health more than female health, even though the decline in income was comparable. Functional limitations rose by 8% for men and 3% for women, and self‐rated health declined by 2.5% for men and 0.5% for women. Old‐age men with arrears were almost twice as likely to die before the next survey round, and functional limitations of surviving men rose by more than 10%. By contrast, there was no impact on the next round's health status of old‐age women. A rich data set is used to discount alternative explanations, including feedback from health to income, other economic factors, health service access, health behavior, and environmental conditions. (JEL: I12, I30, J14, J30)     

住房供给调控中异质环境的作用效果研究

本文在住宅存量调整模型基础上,将政策实施环境与政策工具引入住宅供给分析框架,建立了基于异质环境的商品住宅供给调控动态模型,并在设置预期和城市两类微环境因子的基础上,对中国35个大中城市1999-2010年间住房供给调控政策的实施效果进行了实证分析。结果表明:异质预期环境下同一政策工具对商品住宅供给的作用效果存在明显差异;预期不仅对商品住宅供给产生了直接影响,而且还会弱化货币和土地等政策工具的实施效果;异质城市环境下同一政策工具对商品住宅供给的作用效果也存在明显差异。全文从异质环境的视角出发,对现实中住房调控的低效现象给出了新的解释和解决手段。     

The Role of Discount Vouchers in Market with Customer Valuation Uncertainty

Online discount voucher market In the discount voucher market, customers usually face two types of valuation uncertainty, namely, preference uncertainty and consumption state uncertainty. Preference uncertainty is related to the customer's lack of relevant experience with the merchant, whereas consumption state uncertainty is related to the advance selling nature of the discount voucher mechanism. By taking a comprehensive perspective (i.e., considering revenue management and promotion effect at the same time), we find (i) no show of voucher buyers may not be a good thing for the merchant, especially for those large or start‐up ones; (ii) offering refund may always hurt the merchant's profit and the PayPal model may not be optimal in terms of maximizing social welfare; and (iii) market segmentation is not necessary for the profitability of promotion.     

CRIME AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES

We use the exceptional variation in municipality‐level unemployment in Sweden during the 1990s to identify the effect of unemployment on crime. Our findings are as follows: (i) There is a statistically and economically significant effect of general unemployment on the incidence of burglary, auto theft, and drug possession; (ii) we find no evidence for the popular view that youth unemployment matters for crime; (iii) prime‐aged unemployment is robustly correlated with main categories of youthful crimes, a finding consistent with the idea that unstable life conditions of parents have adverse spillover effects on the life‐choices of their children. (JEL: J00, K4)     

A WORLD OF CITIES: THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF URBANIZATION IN POORER COUNTRIES

Historically, urban growth required enough development to grow and transport significant agricultural surpluses or a government effective enough to build an empire. But there has been an explosion of poor mega‐cities over the last 30 years. A simple urban model illustrates that in closed economies, agricultural prosperity leads to more urbanization, but that in an open economy, urbanization increases with agricultural desperation. The challenge of developing world mega‐cities is that poverty and weak governance reduce the ability to address the negative externalities that come with density. This paper models the connection between urban size and institutional failure, and shows that urban anonymity causes institutions to break down. For large cities with weak governments, draconian policies may be the only way to curb negative externalities, suggesting a painful trade‐off between dictatorship and disorder. A simple model suggests that private provision of infrastructure to reduce negative externalities is less costly when city populations are low or institutions are strong, but that public provision can cost less in bigger cities.     

我国住宅市场财富效应研究

通过对我国总体数据的实证分析发现,预期收入增长对总消费具有显著正的影响;预期住宅价格对总消费也有显著正的影响,即我国住宅市场财富效应是显著存在的。这与最近关于OECD国家住宅市场研究中的结论是相吻合的。     

The Tradeoffs of Inclusionary Zoning: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

Inclusionary zoning (IZ), a controversial planning tool for supplying affordable housing, grew significantly during the 2000s' housing boom in the USA. We review the resultant scholarly literature on IZ. Our key reading is that IZ can include both tradeoffs and practical efforts to address them. There is also a need for additional research. More specifically, we find that IZ programs (i) have many components and vary considerably; (ii) can increase affordable housing production and social integration, but there can be a tradeoff between these goals; and (iii) can have slight adverse market effects, but cost-offsets can help mitigate the outcomes. Finally, we discuss the need for more research, particularly in-depth case studies and make suggestions.     

Unions,Firing Costs,and Unemployment

Abstract. We study the effects of firing costs in unionized economies with heterogeneous workers. We consider an overlapping generations model where workers participate in the labour market both when young and when old. All workers belong to the same union that sets wages unilaterally. We find that at given wages firing costs increase youth unemployment and decrease old‐age unemployment. However, once the wage response is considered, firing costs increase both youth and old‐age unemployment. Indeed, knowing that when firing costs are higher firms refrain from firing, the union increases the wage of old workers, and, therefore, old‐age unemployment increases.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHILD HEALTH,DEVELOPMENTAL GAPS,AND PARENTAL EDUCATION: EVIDENCE FROM ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

We use administrative German data to examine the role of physical and mental health conditions in explaining developmental gaps between children whose parents have different educational levels. Specifically, we employ sibling fixed effect models to estimate the effect of a comprehensive list of childhood health conditions—diagnosed by government physicians—on the cognitive and verbal ability of pre‐school children. We also apply decomposition methods to examine the extent to which gaps in child development can be attributed to child health conditions. While most physical health conditions have small and insignificant effects, mental health conditions, in particular hyperactivity, have a large and significant effect on development. Mental health conditions account for 14%–36% of the gap in cognitive ability and for 23%–24% of that in verbal ability. Thus, policies aimed at reducing disparities in child development and socioeconomic inequalities later in life should focus more on the early diagnosis and effective treatment of mental health conditions.     

CRITICAL PERIODS DURING CHILDHOOD AND ADOLESCENCE

We identify the ages that constitute sensitive (or critical) periods in children's development towards their adult health status, skills, and human capital. For this, we use data on families migrating into Sweden from countries that are poorer, with less healthy conditions. Late‐life health is proxied by adult height and other adult outcomes. The relation between siblings’ ages at migration and their adult outcomes allows us to estimate the causal effect of conditions at specific childhood ages. We effectively exploit that, for siblings, the migration occurs simultaneously in calendar time but at different developmental stages (ages). We find evidence that the period just before the puberty growth spurt constitutes a critical period for adult height and we find related critical periods for adult cognition, mental health, and education.     

CEO health

Using comprehensive data on 28 cohorts in Sweden, we analyze CEO health and its determinants and outcomes. We find CEOs are in much better health than the population and on par with other high-skill professionals. These results apply in particular to mental health and to CEOs of larger companies. We explore three mechanisms that can account for CEOs’ robust health. First, we find health predicts appointment to a CEO position. Second, the CEO position has no discernible impact on the health of its holder. Third, poor health is associated with greater CEO turnover. Here, both contemporaneous health and health at the time of appointment matter. Poor CEO health also predicts poor firm outcomes. We find a statistically significant association between mental health and corporate performance for smaller-firm CEOs, for whom a one standard deviation deterioration in mental health translates into a performance reduction of 6% relative to the mean.     

中国房地产限售政策对房价的影响研究——兼论限售和限购的政策组合效应

自2017年3月以来，中国多个城市相继出台了房地产限售政策。本文基于2017年1月至2018年5月的全国城市月度数据，针对限售政策分期出台的实际情况，构建更具适用性的多期双重差分模型（Multi-Stage Difference-in-Difference），分别从国家和城市层面实证分析了限售政策平抑房价的效果及其异质性。在此基础上，又对限售政策和限购政策的联合效应进行研究。研究结果表明：房地产限售政策能显著平抑房价且效果具有异质性。具体而言，在国家层面，限售政策对房价的平抑效果二手房强于新房、小户型强于中大户型；在城市层面，其平抑房价的效果一线城市强于二三线城市、中西部城市强于东部城市。此外，双限政策的联合效果优于单一限售政策。以上研究对进一步发掘限售政策的独特价值具有现实意义。     

Loss/Gain Framing,Dose, and Reactance: A Message Experiment

Whether a loss or gain frame has a persuasive advantage in communicating health risks is a matter of ongoing debate. Findings reported in the literature are mixed, suggesting that framing effects are likely complex and may be influenced by a combination of factors. This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements). Compared to loss frames, gain frames generated more threat to freedom and reactance. Dosage exerted significant influence at the extremes; the one‐dose messages invoked less intentions to exercise compared to the four‐dose messages. Planned contrasts revealed significant frame × dose interactions. Notably, the one‐dose gain‐framed messages triggered significantly more freedom threat and less intentions to engage in physical activity—a situation that changed when the information was loss‐framed or when the dosage was increased.     

Incentives to Exercise

Can incentives be effective in encouraging the development of good habits? We investigate the post‐intervention effects of paying people to attend a gym a number of times during one month. In two studies we find marked attendance increases after the intervention relative to attendance changes for the respective control groups. This is entirely driven by people who did not previously attend the gym on a regular basis. In our second study, we find improvements on health indicators such as weight, waist size, and pulse rate, suggesting the intervention led to a net increase in total physical activity rather than to a substitution away from nonincentivized ones. We argue that there is scope for financial intervention in habit formation, particularly in the area of health.     

Equilibria in Health Exchanges: Adverse Selection versus Reclassification Risk

This paper studies regulated health insurance markets known as exchanges, motivated by the increasingly important role they play in both public and private insurance provision. We develop a framework that combines data on health outcomes and insurance plan choices for a population of insured individuals with a model of a competitive insurance exchange to predict outcomes under different exchange designs. We apply this framework to examine the effects of regulations that govern insurers' ability to use health status information in pricing. We investigate the welfare implications of these regulations with an emphasis on two potential sources of inefficiency: (i) adverse selection and (ii) premium reclassification risk. We find substantial adverse selection leading to full unraveling of our simulated exchange, even when age can be priced. While the welfare cost of adverse selection is substantial when health status cannot be priced, that of reclassification risk is five times larger when insurers can price based on some health status information. We investigate several extensions including (i) contract design regulation, (ii) self‐insurance through saving and borrowing, and (iii) insurer risk adjustment transfers.