开放式基金净值增长率被拉升了吗?——中国证券市场日历效应检验

本文旨在研究基金净值增长率在月末、季末、年末最后1个交易日是否被显著地拉升而表现出一定的日历效应.首先引入虚拟变量进行回归分析,然后讨论不同业绩组的日历末表现以及前后10个交易日的净值增长率走势.结果表明,实证支持基金日历末净值增长率异常增大的原假设.此外还发现,净值增长率在月末、季末前后10个交易日明显呈现一个由低点逐渐增大,然后回落的趋势.     

Choosing the Number of Instruments

Properties of instrumental variable estimators are sensitive to the choice of valid instruments, even in large cross‐section applications. In this paper we address this problem by deriving simple mean‐square error criteria that can be minimized to choose the instrument set. We develop these criteria for two‐stage least squares (2SLS), limited information maximum likelihood (LIML), and a bias adjusted version of 2SLS (B2SLS). We give a theoretical derivation of the mean‐square error and show optimality. In Monte Carlo experiments we find that the instrument choice generally yields an improvement in performance. Also, in the Angrist and Krueger (1991) returns to education application, when the instrument set is chosen in the way we consider, it turns out that both 2SLS and LIML give similar (large) returns to education.     

Transferability of Human Capital and Immigrant Assimilation: An Analysis for Germany

This paper investigates the transferability of human capital from various countries to Germany and the contribution of imperfect human capital portability to the explanation of the immigrant‐native wage gap. Our results reveal that, overall, education and, in particular, labor market experience accumulated in the home countries of the immigrants receive significantly lower returns than human capital obtained in Germany. We further find evidence for heterogeneity in the returns to human capital of immigrants across countries. Finally, imperfect human capital transferability appears to be a major factor in explaining the wage differential between natives and immigrants.     

Home governments and MNEs in Russia: Relationships and MNE external legitimacy

This paper examines the complex relationships between the government and multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Russia. Different from most studies that focus on the state as a whole, we distinguish between different levels of government, namely federal and regional. We investigate how these relationships influence the ability of Russian MNEs to gain external legitimacy. We report the findings of a qualitative multiple-case study of 12 Russian MNEs based on observations and 55 face-to-face interviews conducted in 2014 and 2015. The analysis reveals four different types of relationships: collaborative, submissive, adversarial, and collusive. We find that collaborative and submissive relationships have a positive effect on the external legitimacy of MNEs, whereas adversarial and collusive ones have a negative effect. We conclude that Russian MNEs are able to gain external legitimacy by capitalizing on different types of relationships with the federal and regional governments and using them to advance their own international activities.     

Internationalization of small and medium sized enterprises in the Baltic Sea Region

We integrate internationalization process theory with industrial network theory to explain SME entry in emerging markets. We show that entry modes are complemented by entry nodes and entry processes. We develop a Five/Five Stages Model to consider the dynamic interaction between these factors. We undertook a survey of 116 SMEs in Southern Sweden trading with the Baltic States, Poland and Russia, as complemented by a case study of ten SMEs trading with Poland and an analysis of trade statistics of SMEs in Southern Sweden.We find that relationships are critical for entry as most firms rely on direct relationships with customers or dyads. The involvement of subsidiaries is uncommon, suggesting a low degree of FDI. Meanwhile, triads or indirect relationships through distributors or agents are more important. This low cost entry node creates a paradox in that the insufficient learning it provides about local markets obstructs further internationalization. By relating entries to the global internationalization process, we find that most SMEs trade with few countries in the region, indicating a low degree of regional internationalization.     

Leverage and the performance of buyouts

In this paper we investigate the effects of debt usage on (risk-adjusted) equity returns in private equity-backed buyout transactions. We use a proprietary data set of more than 700 realized European and North American buyouts acquired between 1990 and 2006 to empirically assess theoretical predictions. Our results show a positive relationship between debt levels and equity returns indicating the return-enhancing effects related to leverage. However, our results also provide evidence that it is possible to ‘over-leverage’ a company, i.e. at very high levels of leverage (debt to total capital of approximately 90%) the increased company default risk outweighs the positive effects related to leverage resulting in decreasing equity returns. On the other side, we find no significant relationship between leverage and risk-adjusted equity returns which implies that the return increase through higher debt ratios comes along with increasing risk. In addition, we show that private equity sponsors successfully conduct debt-equity-arbitrage in times of favorable debt market conditions. This implies that these investors successfully time debt markets.     

Why adding firm value with a put feature in debt contracts is better than renegotiation

In this paper, we analyze the ability of putable debt to add firm value. To stress the impact of a put feature, we compare the resulting optimal firm values and capital structures to those of a firm with straight debt that can be renegotiated. For this purpose, we consider a time-independent firm value model with tax-deductibility of coupon payments, bankruptcy costs in the case of a default, and dynamic restructuring. We find that a put right can always be designed so that a put is enforced for low asset values but the bond remains alive for high asset values. The optimal firm value arising from this type of equilibrium strategy is remarkable for several reasons: The optimal firm value under putable debt is always higher than under straight debt even under renegotiation with arbitrary negotiation power of debt and equity holders. Moreover, the optimal firm value under putable debt always benefits from higher bankruptcy costs, while the optimal firm value under straight debt suffers. Accordingly, a higher volatility of asset value returns can be favorable for a high firm value under putable debt, while it always destroys value of a firm with straight debt.     

The Structure of Wages by Firm Size: A Comparison of Canada and the USA

Cross‐country comparisons of the skill premium between USA and Canada show differences in the returns to higher education between the two countries since the 1980s. This paper analyses whether such differences could be related to differences in skill distribution and worker sorting across firm size between the two countries. Estimation of the wage structure by size for male non‐unionized workers in the private sector reveals that selectivity effects on wages are present and similar in both countries. There are significant and substantial cross‐country differences in the returns to education among large firms, especially for younger workers.     

Considering the shareholder perspective: value-based management systems and stock market performance

We empirically study the use of value-based management systems in listed German firms and examine implications for firms’ stock market performance. Using a novel, hand-collected data set covering 1,083 firm years from 2002 to 2008, we find that value-based management systems become increasingly common. Specifically, in 2008 42% of our sample firms have implemented such a system. In the empirical analysis, we find that firms implementing value-based management systems earn both statistically significant and economically substantial abnormal stock market returns measured within a 2-year adoption phase. These excess returns are not jeopardized by poor post-adoption returns. In the analysis, we carefully control for risk and account for endogeneity concerns. Overall, our findings support the view that shareholders consider the adoption of a value-based management system as a credible signal that management will focus on shareholder interests and that such systems actually increase shareholder value.     

Mobility and the Return to Education: Testing a Roy Model with Multiple Markets

Self–selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though U.S. workers are highly mobile. To assess the impact of self–selection on estimated returns, this paper first develops a Roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) to live and work. Available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model with so many alternatives or place potentially severe restrictions on earnings and the selection process. This paper develops an alternative econometric methodology that combines Lee's (1983) parametric maximum order statistic approach to reduce the dimensionality of the error terms with more recent work on semiparametric estimation of selection models (e.g., Ahn and Powell (1993)). The resulting semiparametric correction is easy to implement and can be adapted to a variety of other polychotomous choice problems. The empirical work, which uses 1990 U.S. Census data, confirms the role of comparative advantage in mobility decisions. The results suggest that self–selection of higher educated individuals to states with higher returns to education generally leads to upward biases in OLS estimates of the returns to education in state–specific labor markets. While the estimated returns to a college education are significantly biased, correcting for the bias does not narrow the range of returns across states. Consistent with the finding that the corrected return to a college education differs across the U.S., the relative state–to–state migration flows of college– versus high school–educated individuals respond strongly to differences in the return to education and amenities across states.     

Corporate Governance in Russia:: towards a European, US, or Russian Model?

This article analyzes Russia’s emerging corporate governance system taking into account both foreign and domestic influences. It discusses influences on Russia’s corporate governance from other countries, particularly the US, Germany, and France. Aspects of Russian culture and traditions are then examined to see how they might influence the country’s evolving corporate governance system. Although Russia will continue to be influenced by international standards and systems of other countries, the article concludes that Russian corporate governance will evolve into its own unique model reflecting the country’s traditions, values, and culture. Implications for Western investors are discussed.     

Earning While Learning: When and How Student Employment is Beneficial

Although studies of student employment (‘earning while learning’) mostly find positive wage effects, they do not adequately consider the relation of the employment to the field of study. We investigate how different types of student employment during tertiary education affect short‐ and long‐term labour market returns. Beyond examining differences between non‐working and part‐time working students, we distinguish between student employment related and unrelated to the field of study. Our results show significant positive labour market returns of ‘earning while learning’ only for student employment related to the field of study. These returns consist of a lower unemployment risk, shorter job‐search duration, higher wage effects, and greater job responsibility.     

International Business,Human Rights,and Moral Complicity: A Call for a Declaration on the Universal Rights and Duties of Business

The purpose of this article is to call for the formulation and adoption of a declaration on the universal rights and duties of business. We do not attempt to define the specific contents of such a declaration, but rather attempt to explain why such a declaration is needed and what would be some of its general characteristics. The catalyst for this call was the recognition that even under optimal conditions, good companies sometimes are susceptible to moral lapses, and when companies undertake ventures in authoritarian countries with poor human rights records, even those with the best intentions may find themselves drawn into complicity in human rights abuses. There, market exigencies may persuade them to leave their codes of ethics and commitments to human rights at home. Pragmatism, it would seem, requires thatthey accept the ethical inconsistencies that follow from a “When in Rome, do as they Romans do” outlook. When facing the moral dilemma about whether or not to invest in human rights abusing countries, companies are offered two alternatives: they can operate in those countries and accept potential complicity or they can stay away. We suggest, however, that a preferable option is to address the underlying problem, and to this end we advocate the promulgation of a declaration for business that is comparable to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Our proposed name for this is the “Declaration on the Universal Rights and Duties of Business.” To be effective, such a declaration would require enforcement mechanisms. To illustrate this issue, we focus on China, not because China is unique in its human rights abuses, but because China occupies such a central place in the globalization efforts of the major companies from around the world. A robust international declaration is needed to provide a common framework for the practice of consistent and fair business competition everywhere.     

International offshoring of services: A parity study

Conventional wisdom suggests that firms engage in international offshoring of services primarily to reduce wage costs associated with a given service activity. Drawing on international business research on the costs of doing business abroad (CODBA), liability of foreignness (LOF), and institutional theory, we investigate the factors that contribute to the location choices for services offshoring activity, including wage differentials between the home and host countries. We find that consistent with a parity perspective but contrary to conventional expectations, a country is more likely to be a destination of services offshoring as the average wage of a country increases. We also find that education level and cultural similarity are significant drivers of offshoring location choices, again consistent with a parity perspective. This study contributes to debates about the economic impact of services offshoring by showing that firms locate offshoring facilities in destinations that are closer in wages to the home country and those with higher education levels and cultural similarity.     

How do industry and country impact firm performance? A national and supranational analysis

We contribute to the literature of the country, industry and firm effects on performance by developing an autoregressive cross-classified mixed-effect linear model that examines heterogeneity in the profitability of corporations in emerging and developed economies, as well as corporations located in different supranational regions. To this purpose, we simultaneously decompose abnormal returns into permanent and transitory components at the firm, industry, country and industry–country levels. We find that firms in emerging countries have significantly higher rates of performance persistence and different sources of persistence compared to firms located in developed countries. These differences are also evident between different supranational regions and countries at different levels of institutional development.

     

投资者情绪指标与股票市场——基于扩展卡尔曼滤波方法的研究

基于扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)方法,首次构造出过滤市场噪声的投资者情绪指标,并在此基础上应用向量自回归模型分析我国投资者情绪指标与股票收益、股本规模等因素的经验关系,实证结果表明:(1)扩展卡尔曼滤波方法可以获得一个更加清晰反映投资者情绪的状态变量;(2)情绪的变化量比情绪指标本身具有更强的市场收益预测能力;(3)大规模公司股票的收益对投资者情绪的影响程度高于小规模公司股票,而投资者情绪对小规模公司股票的影响显著高于大规模公司的股票,并且情绪波动能够预测小规模股票的短期收益惯性和跨期收益反转的特征,证明情绪波动是影响资产定价的重要主观因素。     

Impact of the Minimum Wage on Youth Labor Markets

We study the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes for young workers using US county‐level panel data from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2009. We go beyond the usual estimates of earnings and employment effects to consider how differences across states in the minimum wage affect worker turnover via separations and accessions and job turnover through new job creation and job losses. We find that a higher minimum wage level is associated with higher earnings, lower employment and reduced worker turnover for those in the 14–18 age group. For workers aged 19–21 and 22–24, we find less consistent evidence of minimum wage effects on earnings and employment. But, even for these age groups, a higher minimum wage is found to reduce accessions, separations and the turnover rate.     

Scenario planning,cognition, and strategic investment decisions in a turbulent environment

We explore how scenario planning contributes to cognitive dynamics and strategic investment decisions in a changing environment. Our research is based on an in-depth, longitudinal case study of Shell's ventures in Russia between 1994 and 2016. We show that Shell's scenarios did not foresee some major events that occurred in the turbulent Russian energy market. However, the scenarios envisaged the rising role of gas, the strategic relevance of the gas transportation infrastructure, and the growing interventionism of the Russian government. The scenarios thus helped Shell's managers to adapt their strategic beliefs and ultimately enabled them to notice, assess, and respond successfully to external changes—even though these changes had not been foreseen in the scenarios. Shell has been the first (and, for almost a decade, the only) foreign company to produce and export gas from Russia.     

Do individual investors learn from their mistakes?

Based on recent empirical evidence which suggests that as investors gain experience, their investment performance improves, we hypothesize that the specific mechanism through which experience translates into better investment returns is closely related to learning from investment mistakes. To test our hypotheses, we use an administrative dataset which covers the trading history of 19,487 individual investors. Our results show that underdiversification and the disposition effect do not decline as investors gain experience. However, we find that experience correlates with less portfolio turnover. We conclude that compared to other investment mistakes, it is relatively easy for individuals to identify and avoid costs related to excessive trading activity. When correlating experience with portfolio returns, we find that as investors gain experience, their portfolio returns improve. A comparison of returns before and after accounting for transaction costs reveals that this effect is related to learning from overtrading.     

Internationalization of Developing Country Firms into Developed Countries: The Role of Host Country Knowledge-Based Assets and IPR Protection in FDI Location Choice

Foreign direct investment (FDI) from developing to developed countries is a widespread phenomenon in the global economy. The literature suggests that such investments frequently follow a motive to seek knowledge-based assets, with the goal of augmenting the firm's resource base through internationalization. We argue that the prevalence of this motive may direct developing country firms' FDI toward developed countries with relatively stronger knowledge-based assets and weaker intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and that this effect is amplified when both conditions coincide. Furthermore, we suggest that the respective importance of knowledge-based assets and IPR protection diminishes as developing countries augment their own knowledge-based assets and that the importance of asset seeking as an internationalization motive for the country's firms declines compared with other motives such as institutional escapism. We investigate our model with FDI data including investment flows from 85 developing countries to 35 developed countries during 2009–2014. We find that developing country firms prefer investing in developed countries with stronger knowledge-based assets and weaker IPR protection. These criteria attract even more FDI when both co-occur. Furthermore, the influence of weaker host country IPR protection on the location decision diminishes for firms originating from home countries with higher stocks of knowledge-based assets.