Can Relaxation of Beliefs Rationalize the Winner's Curse?: An Experimental Study

We use a second‐price common‐value auction, called the maximal game, to experimentally study whether the winner's curse (WC) can be explained by models which retain best‐response behavior but allow for inconsistent beliefs. We compare behavior in a regular version of the maximal game, where the WC can be explained by inconsistent beliefs, to behavior in versions where such explanations are less plausible. We find little evidence of differences in behavior. Overall, our study casts a serious doubt on theories that posit the WC is driven by beliefs.     

How Portable Is Level‐0 Behavior? A Test of Level‐k Theory in Games With Non‐Neutral Frames

We test the portability of level‐0 assumptions in level‐k theory in an experimental investigation of behavior in Coordination, Discoordination, and Hide and Seek games with common, non‐neutral frames. Assuming that level‐0 behavior depends only on the frame, we derive hypotheses that are independent of prior assumptions about salience. Those hypotheses are not confirmed. Our findings contrast with previous research which has fitted parameterized level‐k models to Hide and Seek data. We show that, as a criterion of successful explanation, the existence of a plausible model that replicates the main patterns in these data has a high probability of false positives.     

A Comment on “Can Relaxation of Beliefs Rationalize the Winner's Curse?: An Experimental Study”

Ivanov, Levin, and Niederle (2010) use a common‐value second‐price auction experiment to reject beliefs‐based explanations for the winner's curse. ILN's conclusion, however, stems from the misuse of theoretical arguments. Beliefs‐based models are even compatible with some observations from ILN's experiment.     

Split‐Award Procurement Auctions—Can Bayesian Equilibrium Strategies Predict Human Bidding Behavior in Multi‐Object Auctions?

We analyze if and when symmetric Bayes Nash equilibrium predictions can explain human bidding behavior in multi‐object auctions. We focus on two sealed‐bid split‐award auctions with ex ante split decisions as they can be regularly found in procurement practice. These auction formats are straightforward multi‐object extensions of the first‐price sealed‐bid auction. We derive the risk‐neutral symmetric Bayes Nash equilibrium strategies and find that, although the two auction mechanisms yield the same expected costs to the buyer, other aspects of the two models, including the equilibrium bidding strategies, differ significantly. The strategic considerations in these auction formats are more involved than in single‐lot first‐price sealed‐bid auctions, and it is questionable whether expected utility maximization can explain human bidding behavior in such multi‐object auctions. Therefore, we analyzed the predictive accuracy of our equilibrium strategies in the laboratory. In human subject experiments we found underbidding, which is in line with earlier experiments on single‐lot first‐price sealed‐bid auctions. To control for regret, we organize experiments against computerized bidders, who play the equilibrium strategy. In computerized experiments where bid functions are only used in a single auction, we found significant underbidding on low‐cost draws. In experiments where the bid function is reused in 100 auctions, we could also control effectively for risk aversion, and there is no significant difference of the average bidding behavior and the risk‐neutral Bayes Nash equilibrium bid function. The results suggest that strategic complexity does not serve as an explanation for underbidding in split‐award procurement auctions, but risk aversion does have a significant impact.     

Transparency in Buyer‐Determined Auctions: Should Quality be Private or Public?

We study buyer‐determined procurement auctions where both price and non‐price characteristics of bidders matter for being awarded a contract. Although, in scoring auctions bidders perfectly know how price and non‐price attributes determine the awarding of the contract, this remains uncertain in buyer‐determined auctions where the buyer is free to choose once all bids have been submitted. We analyze the impact of information bidders have with respect to the buyer's awarding decision. As we show theoretically whether it is in the buyer's interest to conceal the impact of non‐price characteristics depends on how important the quality aspects of the procured good are to the buyer: The more important quality aspects are, the more interesting concealment becomes. In a counterfactual analysis using data from a large European procurement platform, we analyze the reduction of non‐price information available to the bidders. Confirming our hypothesis, for auction categories where bidders’ non‐price characteristics strongly influence buyers’ decisions concealment of non‐price information leads to an increase in buyers’ surplus of up to 15% due to higher competitive pressure and lower bids. Conversely, for categories where bidders’ non‐price characteristics are of little importance concealment of non‐price information leads to a decrease in buyers’ surplus of up to 6%.     

Parameters of a Dose‐Response Model Are on the Boundary: What Happens with BMDL?

It is well known that, under appropriate regularity conditions, the asymptotic distribution for the likelihood ratio statistic is χ². This result is used in EPA's benchmark dose software to obtain a lower confidence bound (BMDL) for the benchmark dose (BMD) by the profile likelihood method. Recently, based on work by Self and Liang, it has been demonstrated that the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio remains the same if some of the regularity conditions are violated, that is, when true values of some nuisance parameters are on the boundary. That is often the situation for BMD analysis of cancer bioassay data. In this article, we study by simulation the coverage of one- and two-sided confidence intervals for BMD when some of the model parameters have true values on the boundary of a parameter space. Fortunately, because two-sided confidence intervals (size 1–2α) have coverage close to the nominal level when there are 50 animals in each group, the coverage of nominal 1−α one-sided intervals is bounded between roughly 1–2α and 1. In many of the simulation scenarios with a nominal one-sided confidence level of 95%, that is, α= 0.05, coverage of the BMDL was close to 1, but for some scenarios coverage was close to 90%, both for a group size of 50 animals and asymptotically (group size 100,000). Another important observation is that when the true parameter is below the boundary, as with the shape parameter of a log-logistic model, the coverage of BMDL in a constrained model (a case of model misspecification not uncommon in BMDS analyses) may be very small and even approach 0 asymptotically. We also discuss that whenever profile likelihood is used for one-sided tests, the Self and Liang methodology is needed to derive the correct asymptotic distribution.     

Is There a Curse of Dimensionality for Contraction Fixed Points in the Worst Case?

This paper analyzes the complexity of the contraction fixed point problem: compute an ε‐approximation to the fixed point V*Γ(V*) of a contraction mapping Γ that maps a Banach space B_d of continuous functions of d variables into itself. We focus on quasi linear contractions where Γ is a nonlinear functional of a finite number of conditional expectation operators. This class includes contractive Fredholm integral equations that arise in asset pricing applications and the contractive Bellman equation from dynamic programming. In the absence of further restrictions on the domain of Γ, the quasi linear fixed point problem is subject to the curse of dimensionality, i.e., in the worst case the minimal number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations required to compute an ε‐approximation to a fixed point V*∈B_d increases exponentially in d. We show that the curse of dimensionality disappears if the domain of Γ has additional special structure. We identify a particular type of special structure for which the problem is strongly tractable even in the worst case, i.e., the number of function evaluations and arithmetic operations needed to compute an ε‐approximation of V* is bounded by Cε^−p where C and p are constants independent of d. We present examples of economic problems that have this type of special structure including a class of rational expectations asset pricing problems for which the optimal exponent p1 is nearly achieved.     

Does Security Impact E‐procurement Performance? Testing a Model of Direct and Moderated Effects

Despite the widespread adoption of e‐procurement and the critical role of information security in these situations, academic research examining the relationship between information security and e‐procurement performance has been surprisingly minimal. This study represents an interdisciplinary approach to present and test a theoretical model that links security in e‐procurement processes to e‐procurement performance. E‐procurement performance is measured as a combination of cost savings, order quality, and satisfaction of fulfillment as perceived by buyers. The model also posits that two aspects of the procurement process will enhance the value of security in e‐procurement, namely, process complexity and process interdependence. We empirically examine these relationships using data collected from procurement managers. Our results have important implications for managing the e‐procurement process.     

Tradeoffs in Manufacturing? A Meta‐Analysis and Critique of the Literature

An ongoing, important question in the operations strategy literature pertains to tradeoffs: Can manufacturers focus on multiple priorities simultaneously or achieve strength on multiple capabilities without sacrificing performance of another? In this paper, we accumulate, integrate, and examine the wide spectrum of conclusions reached in the literature concerning tradeoffs using modified meta‐analysis methods. Based on two decades of empirical research in operations strategy, we find that the evidence in the literature indicates manufacturers, on average, do not report experiencing tradeoffs among the competitive dimensions of quality, delivery, flexibility, and cost as suggested by the classical tradeoffs model. Our meta‐analysis also reveals that the way variables are operationalized, whether initiatives are implemented, and the unit of analysis are all related to the degree and nature of the evidence a paper contains with respect to the tradeoffs issue. We interpret our meta‐analysis results in the context of the prevailing model of manufacturing strategy and the theory of performance frontiers. We also discuss how the research designs used in this literature, which are predominantly cross‐sectional, affect the nature of the evidence generated and the conclusions that can be drawn. We go on to suggest research designs that more directly assess the tradeoffs issue.     

Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing‐Power‐Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean‐Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price

The PPP puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods (LOOP) or baskets of goods (PPP) appear highly persistent or even nonstationary. The present consensus is these price differences have a half‐life that is of the order of five years at best, and infinity at worst. This seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons, typically days or weeks. However, current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology, involving (i) relatively low‐frequency monthly, quarterly, or annual data, and (ii) a linear model specification. In fact, these methodological choices are not innocent, and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk. Intuitively, if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days, then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it. If we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial “band of inaction,” then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random‐walking in that band. Thus, when testing for PPP or LOOP, model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets.     

Tax and Education Policy in a Heterogeneous‐Agent Economy: What Levels of Redistribution Maximize Growth and Efficiency?

This paper studies the effects of progressive income taxes and education finance in a dynamic heterogeneous‐agent economy. Such redistributive policies entail distortions to labor supply and savings, but also serve as partial substitutes for missing credit and insurance markets. The resulting tradeoffs for growth and efficiency are explored, both theoretically and quantitatively, in a model that yields complete analytical solutions. Progressive education finance always leads to higher income growth than taxes and transfers, but at the cost of lower insurance. Overall efficiency is assessed using a new measure that properly reflects aggregate resources and idiosyncratic risks but, unlike a standard social welfare function, does not reward equality per se. Simulations using empirical parameter estimates show that the efficiency costs and benefits of redistribution are generally of the same order of magnitude, resulting in plausible values for the optimal rates. Aggregate income and aggregate welfare provide only crude lower and upper bounds around the true efficiency tradeoff.     

Business Exit and Strategic Change: Sticking to the Knitting or Striking a New Path?

The purpose of this study is to examine the potential of business exit for initiating strategic change in divesting parent firms. In contrast to prior literature that mainly investigates the impact of different antecedents on the likelihood of business exit in general, this study additionally tests the influence of these antecedents on the choice between two exit types with a cross‐industry sample of divesting firms listed in the German CDAX over the time period 1999–2004. A divestiture involving strategic change is a strategic business exit; otherwise it is denoted as status quo preserving. The findings reveal that a relatively highly dissipated focus does not automatically enhance the likelihood of business exit in general and status‐quo‐preserving business exit in particular. CEO turnover and pressures exerted by institutional investors predict neither strategic nor status‐quo‐preserving business exit. Low firm performance does not nurture the likelihood of business exit per se but especially promotes status‐quo‐preserving business exit.     

Birds of a feather?: Firm sales growth and narcissism in the upper echelons at the CEO-TMT interface

Blending conceptual framing from the CEO-TMT interface literature with upper echelons decision-making theory, we develop a model of the role of CEO narcissism and narcissism in the upper echelons. We argue that narcissistic CEOs tend to have higher narcissism in their Top Management Teams (N-TMTs). In turn, TMTs characterized by narcissism can benefit from positive aspects of narcissism while avoiding its pitfalls; especially when strategic decision speed is slower and behavioral integration is higher. In a field study of 104 TMTs from publicly-listed South Korean firms, we find an association between narcissistic CEOs and N-TMT, and that N-TMT mediates in the indirect, conditional relationship between CEO narcissism and sales growth. We also invoke threshold theory in anticipation that outcomes associated with N-TMT may be nonlinear. In support of our threshold hypothesis, we find a curvilinear relationship between N-TMT and sales growth; and this curvilinear relationship is stronger for a small number of TMTs scoring high on N-TMT (> +2SD), where TMTs’ activities are defined by deliberative integration. The pattern of results we report provides evidence for the importance of accounting for narcissism in the upper echelons as a predictor of sales growth, and key contextual moderators of this relationship.     

Is There a Double‐Negative Effect? Gender and Ethnic Wage Differentials in Italy

This paper investigates the gender and ethnic wage differentials for female migrants in Italy by applying the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, with and without Heckman correction, to account for self‐selection into the labour market. The gender wage gap is nearly 15 per cent, more than 60 per cent of which is unexplained by observable differences. The ethnic wage gap is much larger (39 per cent), but endowments explain 53 per cent of the gap. We also estimate the double‐negative effect of being both female and a migrant. A female migrant earns 42 per cent less than an Italian male; the unexplained component is estimated to be 53–65 per cent. Results are robust to different specifications.     

Design of the Reverse Channel for Remanufacturing: Must Profit‐Maximization Harm the Environment?

A key attribute of a remanufacturing strategy is the division of labor in the reverse channel, especially whether remanufacturing is performed in‐house or outsourced. We investigate this decision for a retailer who accepts returns of a remanufacturable product. Our formulation considers the cost structures of the two strategies, uncertainty in the input quality of the collected/returned used products, consumer willingness‐to‐pay for remanufactured product, the extent to which the remanufactured product cannibalizes demand for a new product, and the power structure in the channel. For the profit‐maximizing retailer, the differentials in variable remanufacturing costs drive strategy choice, and higher fixed costs of in‐house remanufacturing favors outsourcing. The variable remanufacturing costs and the balance of power in the prospective outsourced reverse channel are the key drivers of environmental impact, as measured by the retailer's propensity to remanufacture. While profitability and environmental goals often conflict, they align under certain conditions. These include (a) the third party has less bargaining power; or (b) the fixed cost for in‐house remanufacturing is relatively high. All else equal, when remanufacturing is outsourced, the environment fares better if the third party has leadership power. We generalize to the cases when remanufacturing achieves a quality level less than “good‐as‐new" and when used items have non‐zero salvage value. Analysis of these extensions illuminates how relative power in the reverse channel drives the firms’ preferences, as well as the end customers’ consumption experience.     

Decentralized Implementation of Flood Resilience Measures – A Blessing or a Curse? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan and the Royal Docks Regeneration

This article presents a case study on the implementation of the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan in the Royal Docks, a regeneration project in the East of London. On paper, the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan advances the shift from traditional flood control to flood resilience, because of its long-term horizon, estuary-wide approach, and emphasis on floodplain management. In practice, however, we identify three frictions between vision and reality: a lack of local ownership of the plan, a lack of clear guidance for floodplain management, and limited capacities with local authority. These frictions suggest an ongoing ‘public-public divide’ in decentralized governance.     

Following the Herd or Not?: Patterns of Renewal in the Netherlands and the UK

How do large firms conduct their strategic renewal journeys in an increasingly turbulent environment? Are there generic industry patterns, or are these renewal journeys country- or firm-specific? To answer these questions, we examine the relative incidence of external versus internal and explorative versus exploitative renewal actions, and their speed, in leading Dutch and UK financial service companies using longitudinal data. The context, content and process dimensions of strategic renewal are distinguished, and research questions about these attributes are formulated and investigated using new metrics. Findings show that while exploration/exploitation ratios are fairly similar for firms across the entire industry, systematic differences are evident between the external/internal renewal ratios of Dutch and UK firms, and that speed of renewal is largely determined at the firm level. Thus we find that industry-, country- and firm-specific factors all influence journeys of strategic renewal in distinctive and complementary ways.     

Requirement or Promise? An Analysis of the First‐Mover Advantage in Quality Contracting

Quality contracting is critical and challenging due to the many unique issues related to quality. In this study, we analyze the first‐mover right in quality contracting by considering two different strategies for the buyer: the quality requirement strategy (QR) where buyer moves first by posting quality requirement to suppliers and quality promise strategy (QP) where buyer voluntarily gives up the first‐mover right to suppliers to ask them to promise quality. We study which strategy (1) better encourages suppliers' quality improvement efforts and (2) leads to a higher expected profit for the buyer. To analyze the drivers behind the buyer's choice between QR and QP, we start with the basic model where buyer faces only one supplier who has the opportunity to make quality improvements. We then gradually add other business features such as information asymmetry and supplier competition, analyzing how each feature adds/changes the driving forces and how they interact in the buyer's decision between QR and QP. We consider both the case where the wholesale price is fixed (when the buyer has the power to dictate price or price is set by the market) and the case where the wholesale price is included as a variable (when price is part of the negotiation). We find that QP always leads to the first‐best quality efforts from the supplier(s) while QR limits their efforts. However, this does not guarantee higher expected profit for the buyer under QP. We provide insightful guidelines in buyer's choice between QP and QR. This research enriches the limited literature on quality contracting with quality improvement opportunity and asymmetric information.     

Can Belief in a Just World Buffer Mood and Career Prospects of People in Need of Risk Protection? First Experimental Evidence

Research indicates that individuals high in belief in a just world (BJW) are confident that they will not fall victim to unforeseeable disasters. The current study tested the hypothesis that BJW acts as buffer that serves to sustain mood and career prospects of those in need of risk protection. Threat was manipulated by confronting participants with risks regarding their career outlook, and individual differences in threat perception were measured by degree of uncertainty tolerance. As hypothesized, BJW helped protect the mood of participants threatened by serious career‐related risks who were unable to tolerate uncertainty. The finding supported the buffer hypothesis regarding mood, but not career prospects, possibly due to a more conscious mindset or variability in self‐efficacy. However, BJW was overall positively associated with career prospects. Moreover, it was suggested that BJW can also serve as a personal resource, not only protecting from risk, but also enhancing mood among those with high uncertainty tolerance.