Effects of Uncertainty Aversion on the Call Option Market

This article examines the effects of uncertainty aversion in competitive call option markets using a partial equilibrium model with the Choquet-expected utility setup. We find that the trading volume of a call option is negatively affected by uncertainty aversion, whereas the price of the call is practically independent of it.      

Dynamic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: An Experimental Investigation of Choices Between Accumulator Gambles

This paper presents an experiment that is designed to be more effective than previous studies at reproducing in the laboratory the affective experiences of risk-taking, such as hope, fear, thrill, pain of loss, regret, disappointment or elation. The use of dynamic choice problems involving accumulator gambles, and a particular randomisation device to resolve them, are central to the design. Our results both are inconsistent with orthodox dynamic choice theory and cast doubt on the generality of effects observed in previous designs. We discuss these findings, in terms of the relative impacts on behaviour of affective experience and judgement.     

Better May be Worse: Some Monotonicity Results and Paradoxes in Discrete Choice Under Uncertainty

It is not unusual in real-life that one has to choose among finitely many alternatives when the merit of each alternative is not perfectly known. Instead of observing the actual utilities of the alternatives at hand, one typically observes more or less precise signals that are positively correlated with these utilities. In addition, the decision-maker may, at some cost or disutility of effort, choose to increase the precision of these signals, for example by way of a careful study or the hiring of expertise. We here develop a model of such decision problems. We begin by showing that a version of the monotone likelihood-ratio property is sufficient, and also essentially necessary, for the optimality of the heuristic decision rule to always choose the alternative with the highest signal. Second, we show that it is not always advantageous to face alternatives with higher utilities, a non-monotonicity result that holds even if the decision-maker optimally chooses the signal precision. We finally establish an operational first-order condition for the optimal precision level in a canonical class of decision-problems, and we show that the optimal precision level may be discontinuous in the precision cost.     

The Precautionary Principle in Context: U.S. and E.U. Scientists' Prescriptions for Policy in the Face of Uncertainty*

Objective. Our objective is to explain how scientists interpret less‐than‐certain scientific findings to inform policymakers' choices on controversial science policy issues. We focus on two particularly difficult policy cases concerning global climate change and low‐dose radiation protection. Methods. Our method is to analyze data from a unique multination survey of scientists to analyze the ways their views about what is scientifically correct are translated into judgments about appropriate policy. The surveys asked scientists, randomly drawn from U.S. and E.U. subscribers to the journal Science, to indicate the “most likely” relationships between greenhouse gas emissions and average global temperatures and between radiation dose and incidence of cancer in humans. Follow‐up questions asked for their judgments about appropriate policy targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emission and safety standards for radiation exposure. The data permit analysis of the relationships between scientific certainty and policy judgments in these two cases. Results. Our results shed light on when and how scientists reach precautionary policy conclusions, demonstrating that scientists' application of precaution is dependent on context. In the case of radiation protection, greater certainty is associated with less precaution. But with respect climate change, we found the opposite relationship. Conclusions. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for the role of scientists, and scientific advice, in the policy process.     

项目选择模型的发展初探

项目选择一直是企业资金预算中很重要的一环,关系到企业的成功与失败。通过介绍项目选择评价体系的发展、经典的L-S项目选择净现值模型、实物期权理论以及在不确定理论日趋发展成熟后,项目选择问题新的发展,探析项目选择模型的发展历程,提出相应观点。     

中印关系的确定性和不确定性

中国和印度是两个崛起中的亚洲大国,中印关系是亚洲地区最重要的双边关系之一。中印之间既有独立外交、发展要务、共同崛起、健康竞争、睦邻政策、亚洲大国、地区合作、全球协调等确定性的方面,它们是中印关系稳定和良性发展的基础和机遇。同时两国之间又存在信任赤字、边界问题、力量对比、美国因素、巴基斯坦、海上通道、核武因素、印度入常等不确定的领域,它们是中印关系不稳定和有可能朝不利方向发展的问题和挑战。     

浅论社会工作中的保密原则

保密原则是社会工作过程中的一项基本原则,既是职业道德的要求,也是社会工作者本身的性质所决定的。但是在具体的实践过程中,这一原则有时候并不容易把握。社会工作者在面对不同的对象、处理不同的问题时,会遇到各种伦理困境。因此需要综合各种相关因素,然后作慎重的思考和权衡,从而使助人过程得以顺利进行。文中阐释了保密的研究现状及不足、社会工作中保密的含义、专业中的保密原则与生活中保密的比较、在社会工作中怎样保密以及如何解决在保密中遇到的问题,以此探讨社会工作中保密的重要性,指出保密工作中存在的不足进而提出相关的完善措施。     

The Aversion to the Sequential Resolution of Uncertainty

This paper sets forth and offers an explanation for preferences for the form of the timing of resolution of uncertainty; namely for uncertainty to be resolved all at one time rather than sequentially. The explanation is based on a weakening of the independence axiom, in particular on the notion of disappointment aversion developed in Gul's (1991) axiomatic model of preferences. Implications of this aversion are discussed for issues in finance, intertemporal decision making under uncertainty, high stakes risky situations and consumer self-regulation. The analysis encourages a formulation of preferences over all attributes of interest to the decision maker, including psychological satisfaction.     

The Swing of the Regulatory Pendulum in Europe: From Precautionary Principle to (Regulatory) Impact Analysis

Regulation in Europe is currently driven by three distinct, yet not entirely unrelated factors. These are competitiveness, sustainable development and governance. Increasingly these factors influence both the need for, and concepts of, what the European Commission (the Commission) refers to as “better regulation.” To ensure better regulation, two regulatory philosophies have been put forward, namely the precautionary principle and impact assessment.^1,2 In this paper, I first briefly describe the current drivers of better regulation. Then I examine the use of these two regulatory philosophies in helping to achieve better regulation. In the final section I offer some speculations on the future development of European Union (EU) regulation. Will elements of the Commission and the EU member states operate in an even more precautionary environment, or will the implementation of the precautionary principle be seen as too costly, forcing regulators to resort to an even greater use of impact analysis?     

Economics of Radiation Protection: Equity Considerations

In order to implement cost-benefit analysis of protective actions to reduce radiological exposures, one needs to attribute a monetary value to the avoided exposure. Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection has stressed the need to take into consideration not only the collective exposure to ionising radiation but also its dispersion in the population. In this paper, by using some well known and some recent results in the economics of uncertainty, we discuss how to integrate these recommendations in the valuation of the benefit of protection.     

公民有序参与:公共决策科学化、民主化的基石

公民有序参与公共决策有助于实现公共决策科学化和民主化。当前公民参与公共决策存在参与体制不完善、参与渠道不畅通、参与法制不完备、参与主体不成熟等问题,严重影响了公共政策的质量,需不断完善和发展。健全公民有序参与公共决策的机制需不断推进政治体制改革,实现公共决策的科学化、民主化;加速政治转型,不断拓宽公民参与决策的新渠道;完善法律,实现公民参与公共决策的法制化;提高公民素质,增强参与意识。     

论科学教育的人文价值基础

科学教育的兴起曾经对现代文明的发展产生了极为重要的影响。但随着科学技术负效应的不断显现,人们开始对科学教育进行反思和质疑。本文意在说明,科学教育只有重塑其人文价值基础,即通过与人文教育的融合,以人的价值的实现和人的创造性发展为根本目标,才能适应现代文明的未来发展要求。     

社会工作实验室的建设原则与功能设置

社会工作实验室的建设在社会工作专业学生的培养中具有不可或缺的作用，但在建设的过程却缺乏统一的伦理标准与技术标准，对功能的设置也缺乏经验。针对这一问题，本文从社会工作实验室的建设原则与功能设置两方面进行了探讨与总结。     

A Test of the Principle of Optimality

This paper reports on an experimental test of the Principle of Optimality in dynamic decision problems. This Principle, which states that the decision-maker should always choose the optimal decision at each stage of the decision problem, conditional on behaving optimally thereafter, underlies many theories of optimal dynamic decision making, but is normally difficult to test empirically without knowledge of the decision-maker's preference function. In the experiment reported here we use a new experimental procedure to get round this difficulty, which also enables us to shed some light on the decision process that the decision-maker is using if he or she is not using the Principle of Optimality - which appears to be the case in our experiments.     

The Firm Under Uncertainty with General Risk-Averse Preferences: A State-Contingent Approach

This paper summarizes and synthesizes recent developments in the state-contingent theory of production under uncertainty presented by Chambers and Quiggin (2000) with a particular focus on the case of generalized expected utility preferences. The problem of the risk-averse firm under price and production uncertainty is analyzed using a state-contingent production technology and general risk-averse preferences. The concept of an efficient frontier, which identifies all potentially optimal production plans for weakly risk-averse decisionmakers, is introduced and used to develop comparative static results. For constant absolute risky technologies, the efficient frontier is shown to correspond to a unique isocost contour.     

"进化"的科学意义

自从达尔文提出进化论以来,“进化”这个概念已经成为日常语言中的一个常用词。虽然进化论可被应用于社会科学和文化研究,但是日常的或“准学术”的言谈不能表达进化论的科学意义,反而造成对进化论的似是而非的误解。文章通过对比人们对“进化”这一概念的误解和该概念的科学含义表明了科学语言和日常语言的不同。     

建构科学知识社会学的与境分析

科学知识社会学学者有着不同的社会学抱负和哲学抱负,他们在建构理论过程中充分借重了后实证主义知识社会学、相对主义和解释学资源,并对库恩的理论进行激进解读,同时在为自己的社会学理论辩护时采取经验主义立场,为哲学立场辩护时诉诸理性的力量,这恰好反映了科学知识社会学在知识论上的两难境地。     

论科学管理原理在安全生产管理中的应用

泰罗的科学管理原理被认为是现代管理思想的起源。当前我国安全生产形势严峻,这与我国政府和企业的安全生产管理水平低下有关。本文认为,应当借鉴泰罗的科学管理原理,提高我国政府和企业的安全生产管理水平,使之达到科学管理的层次,从而促进安全生产整体形势的好转。     

Asking Price and Price Discounts: The Strategy of Selling an Asset Under Price Uncertainty

We consider fixed and asking price strategies in the context of selling an asset with Bernoullian updating of the seller’s subjective probability of sale at a given price. The determination of optimal fixed, asking and endogenous reservation prices is discussed under risk-neutrality and expected utility maximisation. With risk-neutrality, the optimal asking price exceeds the optimal fixed price when the expected gain is a strictly concave function. The seller’s choice between the fixed and the asking price strategies depends on several factors: the expected cost of haggling, price competition and the seller’s attitude towards risk.     

Evaluating the Oversight of Scientific Misconduct

The office of Research Integrity has proposed a new definition of scientific misconduct that will substantively reduce the federal government's role of oversight of scientific practices. The standard is being changed despite the lack of evidence about the effects of current policies or understanding of why research misconduct occurs, how it can be detected and prevented, and the nature and effectiveness of sanctions. Given this lack of knowledge and the perception that the integrity of science is falling, we believe it would be unwise for the academic and scientific community to adopt this new standard.