增发博弈中流通市场交易操纵模型与实证研究

承销增发新股中承销商是否存在交易操纵行为是涉及到市场信息效率的关键问题.从国内发行核准制度和无市商的电子交易机制出发,流通市场承销商与策略交易者的博弈行为研究表明,纯操作均衡是唯一的均衡,即承销商始终选择流通市场交易操纵行为,此时流通市场净指令流的信息失效,增发公告后流通市场信息缺乏效率.同时,本文也通过首日流通市场中收盘价和交易量回归,以考察承销商是否存在增发实施前的交易操纵行为.实证表明,增发首日交易量与承销商信誉无关,且难以用公开信息预测,预示承销商交易操纵行为;另外,收盘价与交易量无关,交易量没有信号效应,这与纯操纵均衡相符.本文从实证角度验证了模型结论.结论表明现行发行核准制驱使承销商操纵增发前流通市场交易价格,这要求监管当局修正或者重新设计股票发行制度.     

知情与非知情交易者市场到达率及其影响因素研究

本文实证研究了我国证券市场知情与非知情交易者的市场到达率及其影响因素.首先选取2003.7.1至2003.10.31上海证券市场高频分笔交易数据,运用EKOP(Easley,Kiefer,O'Hara and Paperman,1996)模型假设对我国上海股票交易所知情交易者与非知情交易者的到达率(交易强度)进行了度量;其次研究了股票收益、市场收益、隔夜收益、买(卖)方成交量、相对价差、供给(需求)弹性等市场特征对交易者到达率的影响.实证结果表明非知情交易者的到达率主要受股票收益、买(卖)交易量、相对价差和供给(需求)弹性的影响;除相对价差对非知情者有负向影响外,其余各项对非知情交易者均是正向影响.知情交易者的到达率受市场收益、隔夜收益、买(卖)交易量、相对价差以及供给(需求)弹性影响.此外,对应不同换手率股票,交易者到达率受市场特征的影响也不相同.本文研究认为,知情者较非知情者的收益优势,不仅因为其拥有私有信息还因为知情者观察了较全面的公共信息.     

如何破解农地流转的需求困境?——以发展新型农业经营主体为例

当前我国农地流转市场发展的瓶颈并非供给不足,而是缺乏需求.因此,如何创造有效需求是进一步促进农地流转市场发展的关键.本文利用2015年和2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,采用双重差分模型(DID)考察新型农业经营主体(简称"新型主体")能否成为农地流转的需求引擎.研究发现,新型主体既能通过自身农地需求直接拉动农户出租土地,又能促进农户投资间接带动农户租入土地.但农户的农地流转决策与务农比较收益有关,非平原地区务农比较收益低,新型主体以直接拉动效应为主,而平原地区务农比较收益高,新型主体以间接带动效应为主.在各类新型主体中,家庭农场和专业大户自身农地需求大而具有显著的直接拉动效应,农民专业合作社的互助联合能带动农户之间的农地流转,而农业企业暂不具有显著的农地流转效应.最后,本文发现新型主体可通过促进农地流转提高农地整体利用率,并进一步提高农业产出和农户收入.研究表明,新型主体能成为破解农地流转需求困境,进而提高农业生产率和农户收入的有效抓手.     

农户进住新型农村社区的意愿分析——以陕西六县(区)为例

随着人口与劳动力的大规模进城,农村产生了大量的空心村和空巢家庭,留守人口的分散居住方式产生了诸多问题,农户进住新型农村社区是农村现代化的重要内容。本文以留守农民家庭为背景,以实地调查数据为依据,针对影响农户进住新型农村社区意愿的复杂因素,通过建立无序多分类资料的logistic模型,分析并确定影响农户进住新型农村社区意愿的主要因素,继而得出加快农地流转、培育农村土地市场和加强宣传教育与典型示范等结论。     

农村土地承包经营权产权残缺与市场流转困境:理论与政策分析

我国农地承包经营权的不完全性是现阶段农地市场发育缓慢的产权原因 ,而农地承包经营权的不完全性又与其法律属性不明确有关。不完全的农地承包经营权降低了农户农地经营收益和农地交易价格 ,提升了农地交易成本 ,降低了农地市场交易的净收益 ,最终减弱了农户的农地需求和供给。要加速我国农地市场化进程 ,就必须按物权理论规范我国农地承包经营权制度 ,通过法律制度的建设 ,从产权安排上克服我国农地市场发育的产权制度瓶颈。引言已有的大量文献曾致力于评价私有财产与共同财产制度的相对优劣性 ,这一讨论在很大程度上源于哈丁“公地的悲剧…     

产品稀缺诉求影响消费者购买意愿的双中介模型

通过广告传播产品稀缺诉求从而影响消费者购买决策已经非常普遍，甚至已经发展成为许多厂家或商家提高价格、促进销售的重要营销策略。但目前相关研究却比较少，已有研究主要从感知稀缺性和心理抗拒感解构消费者对产品稀缺诉求的反应机制，缺乏从感知竞争性和感知欺骗性视角整合性地探索消费者应对稀缺诉求的心理反应研究，无疑限制了对消费者稀缺效应本质性和全面性的有效洞察。 产品稀缺诉求会对消费者的消费动机和消费行为产生重要影响。当呈现产品稀缺诉求时，一方面会唤起消费者的感知竞争性，从而促使消费者产生促进性的购买意愿；另一方面也会唤起消费者的感知欺骗性，从而促使消费者产生防御性的购买意愿。采用以手机为实验商品的情景模拟研究方法，运用方差分析和Bootstrap方法检验感知竞争性和感知欺骗性的中介机制以及消费者独特性需求对产品稀缺诉求影响消费者感知竞争性和感知欺骗性的调节机制，得出重要研究结论。 4个实验研究结果表明，产品稀缺诉求影响消费者的购买意愿，而且限量稀缺诉求比限时稀缺诉求更能促使消费者产生购买意愿；消费者感知竞争性和感知欺骗性分别独立部分中介产品稀缺诉求对消费者购买意愿的影响，并且均受到消费者独特性需求的调节；消费者感知竞争性和感知欺骗性共同完全中介产品稀缺诉求对消费者购买意愿的影响，而且该共同完全中介过程受到消费者独特性需求的调节。检验结果也发现限量稀缺诉求和限时稀缺诉求在诱发消费者感知欺骗性上并无显著差异。 研究结果不仅对深化和完善产品稀缺理论、感知竞争性理论和感知欺骗性理论等具有重要的理论意义，而且对指导企业正确操作稀缺营销、增强营销效果和帮助消费者正确辨识稀缺诉求动机、理性消费稀缺诉求产品有重要的实践意义。     

农民被征地意愿研究——以苏南苏北为例

随着人地矛盾日益尖锐,如何更好地完成征地任务成为困扰当今政府的一大问题。农民作为征地的直接利益相关人,其意愿对推进征收土地进程的重要影响不言而喻。本文笔者以苏南苏北农民被征地意愿对比为着入点,探究影响农民被征地意愿的因素,并据此提出改善农民被征地意愿的意见和建议。     

金融危机背景下我国房地产市场价格变动趋势

2008年是我国房地产市场极不平凡的一年。从2007年房价的疯狂上涨到2008年终的量价齐跌,让购房者经历了房地产价格戏剧性的变化,许多人预言房价还会持续下跌。那么,在金融危机背景下,房地产市场价格到底会有怎样的变化趋势？我国房地产市场价格的决定持l型在充分竞争的市场结构中,均衡价格是由市场的供给和需求共同决定的。当影响供给和需求的因素发生变动后,市场的均衡价格也会发生相应的变动。如果供给和需求同方向变化,例如同时增加,需求增加的幅度大于供给增加的幅度,则均衡价格会上升;     

C2C共享模式下多边市场均衡机制及定价决策

共享产品的出现增加了新的消费和供给渠道,不仅改变了人们的消费模式,还影响着传统产品的供给消费关系,形成了新的多边市场均衡。由于共享平台的双边市场特征及网络外部性特征,新的多边市场均衡取决于C2C共享模式中主体的主观能动性、共享平台双边市场的外部性及其交互作用。本研究通过感知价值差异识别参与主体差异,在考虑双边市场外部性交互作用的基础上,构建三维Hotelling模型,从共享产品双边市场均衡、共享产品介入下的三方市场均衡(共享消费、传统消费、不消费)两个维度,探索共享产品介入下的共享平台双边市场、产品消费三方市场均衡机制,进而识别共享平台和传统平台的最优定价决策,为共享经济中的参与主体制定相关策略提供依据。研究发现:在C2C共享模式中,潜在需求的开发规模与共享经济中的定价决策密切相关,受平台(共享平台和传统平台)产品拥有量的积极影响,双边市场的感知价值差异和外部性对产品消费决策起到调节作用;共享平台的最优定价决策,与供给市场的外部性、供给者感知价值差异以及供给成本密切相关,与消费市场关系不大;共享平台的最大利润受同类产品定价决策、产品效用,以及供给市场外部性、供给市场感知价值差异的积极影...     

交易者市场到达率及影响因素研究

将交易者市场到达率看作与市场状态相依的变量,实证研究了上海证券市场知情与非知情交易者的市场到达率及其影响因素.首先运用EKOP模型假设,选取2003.7.1至2003.12.31上海证券市场高频分笔交易数据,对知情与非知情者的到达率(交易强度)进行了度量;其次研究了各种宏观、微观市场特征对交易者到达率的影响.实证结果表明:非知情交易者的到达率与市场收益正相关,知情交易者的到达率主要受买(卖)交易量和供给(需求)弹性的影响,且这种影响只存在于同期之间.与非知情交易者不同,知情者较多的观察微观公共信息.     

寡头市场产量与价格推测变差之间的关系

用于研究寡头垄断市场的推测变差方法,可以将各种寡头行为模型进行统一,本文在这个基础上,考察了产量推测和价格推测之间的关系。这种对应关系对于我们理解和指导实践,尤其是战略管理,都有一家的帮助。     

考虑产能约束的模糊供应链网络均衡研究

在考虑制造商存在产能约束情形下,研究由多个相互竞争的制造商与零售商组成且零售商处面临着模糊需求的供应链网络均衡问题。利用模糊事件的可信性理论,推导零售商的模糊期望利润。通过变分不等式,构建具有模糊需求的单商品供应链网络均衡状态。最后,利用对数二次近似预测校正算法,讨论分析制造商产能约束对供应链均衡解的影响。     

Sales Force and Competition in Financial Product Markets: The Case of Mexico's Social Security Privatization

This paper examines how sales force impacts competition and equilibrium prices in the context of a privatized pension market. We use detailed administrative data on fund manager choices and worker characteristics at the inception of Mexico's privatized social security system, where fund managers had to set prices (management fees) at the national level, but could select sales force levels by local geographic areas. We develop and estimate a model of fund manager choice where sales force can increase or decrease customer price sensitivity. We find exposure to sales force lowered price sensitivity, leading to inelastic demand and high equilibrium fees. We simulate oft proposed policy solutions: a supply‐side policy with a competitive government player and a demand‐side policy that increases price elasticity. We find that demand‐side policies are necessary to foster competition in social safety net markets with large segments of inelastic consumers.     

A WTP‐Choice Model: Empirical Validation,Competitive and Centralized Pricing

Willingness To Pay (WTP) of customers plays an anchoring role in pricing. This study proposes a new choice model based on WTP, incorporating sequential decision making, where the products with positive utility of purchase are considered in the order of customer preference. We compare WTP‐choice model with the commonly used (multinomial) Logit model with respect to the underlying choice process, information requirement, and independence of irrelevant alternatives. Using WTP‐choice model, we find and compare equilibrium and centrally optimal prices and profits without considering inventory availability. In addition, we compare equilibrium prices and profits in two contexts: without considering inventory availability and under lost sales. One of the interesting results with WTP‐choice model is the “loose coupling” of retailers in competition; prices are not coupled but profits are. That is, each retailer should charge the monopoly price as the collection of these prices constitute an equilibrium but each retailer's profit depends on other retailers' prices. Loose coupling fails with dependence of WTPs or dependence of preference on prices. Also, we show that competition among retailers facing dependent WTPs can cause price cycles under some conditions. We consider real‐life data on sales of yogurt, ketchup, candy melt, and tuna, and check if a version of WTP‐choice model (with uniform, triangle, or shifted exponential WTP distribution), standard or mixed Logit model fits better and predicts the sales better. These empirical tests establish that WTP‐choice model compares well and should be considered as a legitimate alternative to Logit models for studying pricing for products with low price and high frequency of purchase.     

对称成本企业合作竞争博弈分析

企业间的合作竞争已成为当今世界经济发展战略的大趋势,本文采用Minimax定理来进行合作竞争的战略决策,该决策战略能确保均衡点处达到较高满意度的企业数量较多。将Minimax定理用于线性逆需求对称成本企业合作竞争的产量战略博弈,并与完全竞争市场中的NASH博弈均衡和完全合作均衡进行了对比,最后提出了对付非合作行为的战略。     

COMPETING MATCHMAKING

We study how matchmakers use prices to sort heterogeneous participants into competing matching markets and how equilibrium outcomes compare with monopoly in terms of prices, matching market structure, and sorting efficiency under the assumption of complementarity in the match value function. The role of prices to facilitate sorting is compromised by the need to survive price competition. We show that price competition leads to a high‐quality market that is insufficiently exclusive. As a result, the duopolistic outcome can be less efficient in sorting than the monopoly outcome in terms of total match value in spite of servicing more participants. (JEL: C7, D4)     

Product mix in the TFT-LCD industry

As operational costs and equipment depreciation in the TFT-LCD (thin film transistor-liquid crystal display) industry are a high percentage of the total cost, most manufacturers usually fully utilise their production capacity to reduce the average unit cost. However, when the market demand is less than the supply the stock of panels increases; this forces manufacturers to instigate a price war to reduce levels of stock and results in a wide fluctuation in panel prices. Inventory stocks of panels could be decreased by optimising the product mix. This will help manufacturers to reduce the risk of holding stocks, increase profit, and improve competitive advantage. This study uses mixed integer linear programming (MILP) to construct a product mix for the TFT-LCD industry given the conditions of profit, productivity, raw materials supply, and market demand. A case study shows that this model is proven to be effective in generating product mix for the TFT-LCD industry while improving profit. The product mix generated by this model can provide a reference for the sales department for orders and shipping, for the production department for the order quantity, and for master production scheduling for each product.     

Strategic pricing with reference effects in a competitive supply chain

The reference-price effect refers to the demand deviation caused by consumers’ perceived losses or gains when the current market price of a product differs from a cognitive benchmark (known as a reference price) formed by the customers based on past prices. The impact of such a reference effect on the dynamic pricing policy of a monopolist has been widely studied in the literature. However, despite the importance of the topic due to the growing transparency of price information in the Internet era, its relevance in the context of a distribution channel has never been explored. In this study, we consider a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer in a bilateral monopoly setting. The two channel members independently choose their pricing strategies to optimize their own benefits in the presence of consumers’ reference-price effects. Based on a deterministic demand function, we derive the equilibrium prices and analyze the resulting profit sensitivity with respect to various factors that crucially shape the reference effects. We conclude that both the centralized and decentralized channels should want consumers to have a higher initial reference price, be more sensitive to the reference-price effect, and be more loyal to their product.     

非合作状态下制造商与垄断供应商之间的谈判博弈研究

通过构造一个2级供应链,建立了垄断供应商和制造商在非合作状态下的博弈模型,利用逆向归纳法求出了垄断供应商和制造商的非合作均衡解,并证明了垄断供应商优先选择生产成本低的制造商作为谈判对象.同时,提出了制造商之间的技术实力差距对非合作均衡态的影响,如果2个制造商之间的技术实力相差悬殊,市场将出现比较稳定的非合作均衡现象,如果技术实力接近,将出现争夺谈判权的博弈现象.     

Dynamic Competition With Random Demand and Costless Search: A Theory of Price Posting

This paper studies a dynamic model of perfectly competitive price posting under demand uncertainty. Firms must produce output in advance. After observing aggregate sales in prior periods, firms post prices for their unsold output. In each period, the demand of a new batch of consumers is randomly activated. Existing customers who have not yet bought and then new customers arrive at the market in random order, observe the posted prices, and either purchase at the lowest available price or delay their purchase decision. We construct a sequential equilibrium in which the output produced and its allocation across consumers is efficient. Thus consumers endogenously sort themselves efficiently, with the highest valuations purchasing first. Transaction prices in each period rise continuously, as firms become more optimistic about demand, followed by a market correction. By the last period, prices are market clearing.