人口因素对公共医疗服务效率的影响——区域差异与动态变化

本文基于2002～2010年我国31个省市的面板数据,在DEA—Tobit两阶段分析框架下研究了人口因素对我国区域公共医疗服务效率的动态影响。首先,通过数据包络分析方法（DEA）测算了各省份医疗卫生体系的综合技术效率、纯技术效率和规模技术效率。在此基础上,利用受限因变量Tobit模型对效率值及人口规模、人口密度、受教育程度、城市化率等人口因素之间的关系进行了检验。研究结果表明：人口规模、人口密度与医疗体系的综合服务效率显著正相关,尽管受教育程度和城市化率与综合效率关系并不明显,但是对医疗体系的规模效率和纯技术效率仍然存在显著影响。     

‘System Destroys Trust?’—Regulatory Institutions and Public Perceptions of Food Risks in Taiwan

This article aims to explore public perceptions of global food risk issues and public attitudes towards government capacity to respond to concerns with technological and health uncertainties in an era of rapid economic development in newly industrialized countries. From cross-national comparative research on global food risk issues in the EU, UK, Germany, and Taiwan, survey results revealed distinct structural problems existing in Taiwan. In particular, it revealed that a long-term culture of authoritarian technological decision-making and positivistic risk assessment has lead to social risk perceptions being institutionally amplified and public trust gradually being destroyed.     

DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF HEALTH AND WELL-BEING: TOOLS FOR EDUCATING SOCIETY

Over the last 50 years, industrial countries have seen dramatic increases in the health and well being of their citizens. Life expectancy, infant and maternal mortality, key measures of population health, have shown continuous improvements since the turn of the century. Yet changes in the economic and social fabric such as increasing income disparity, psychological stressors such as high unemployment levels, and health care reforms with reductions in service provisions that are currently being experienced in industrialized countries, are threatening the sustainability of human health and well-being. With government resources dwindling for health services, expectations are increasing for communities to take charge of their own health and well-being. This paper presents some of the issues and dilemmas surrounding the sustainability of human health, and identifies the importance of developing educated and mobilized communities. By highlighting examples from the Community Health and Well-being in Southwestern Ontario: A Resource for Planning report, it suggests that the provision of key local health and well-being indicators is an important first step to community education and mobilization.     

China's demographic dilemmas

The year 2000 marks the end of a tumultuous century in China's population history, which weathered the demographic effects of devastating famines, wars, and epidemics and population growth and change. This paper examines the effect of population policies on the demographic dilemmas of China. In the 1950s, China had seen the fastest demographic transition in history, with a dramatic decline in mortality rates, followed by a decrease in fertility rates. However, in the 1970s, revisions in population control measures, changes in age structure, and fluctuations in age at marriage resulted in lower fertility rates. The struggles encountered by China in regulating fertility are described; these include the different methods of birth control, gender preference, marriage, population aging, and minority populations. Population and development issues within the context of urbanization, employment, education, health care, economy, and environment are also discussed. Future implications of these findings indicate the need for a systematic, effective, and complete environmental clean-up, as well as fertility and population policies.     

日本失去的二十年——基于中日人口红利比较的视角

"人口红利"是人口因素与经济增长关系研究的深入和发展。亚洲地区经济高速增长和工业化国家人口老龄化条件下经济增长,分别对应第一次"人口红利"和第二次"人口红利"。中国与日本相比,无论是经济增长模式还是人口转变模式,都有着极为相似之处,本文旨在通过对比分析中日两国人口发展与经济发展之间的变化,借鉴日本人口红利期的经验和教训,为中国充分实现第一次人口红利、创造第二次人口红利提供参考。     

研究与人口变量有关的健康问题是新世纪深化人口研究的必然趋势

许多人口现象如生育、死亡、寿命、年龄、性别等都是以人口的生物属性为自然基础的。因此人口变量必然与健康问题密切相关。伴随社会进步与社会实践的深入 ,人们对人口变量的认识也正不断深化与拓展。人口科学必须要研究与人口变量有关的健康问题 ,才能透视人口现象的来拢去脉、前因后果 ,才能摸清和掌握人口变化的规律。因此 ,通过多学科的相互合作与互相渗透 ,研究与人口变量有关的健康问题是新世纪深化人口研究的必然趋势 ,也是2 1世纪人口科学研究的亮点之一     

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

Prospects for international migration: Globalization and its discontents

The paper challenges the view that the late twentieth century is the ‘age of migration’. For developing countries, flows of out-migrants are small compared with population growth, although in developed countries the stock of immigrants increased in proportion to the total population between 1965 and 1990. Despite the importance of refugee movement, the main force for international migration is economic. Why do not more people migrate (internally and internationally) to take advantage of potential economic gains? For international migration, one deterrent is institutional barriers against uncontrolled immigration. Different interest groups stand to gain or lose from increased migration. The income-enhancing effects of unhindered international labour migration, measured jointly for sending and receiving countries and by extension globally, should be very large. Even partial liberalization of immigration to industrialized countries would serve developing countries well. In industrialized countries, however, there is concern about the effect of massive labour inflows on the ethnic, religious and cultural composition of the population and its social cohesion. In some countries, migration is leading to greater ethnic mingling; in others there is a recrudescence of nationalistic aspirations for independent statehood with ethnically homogeneous populations, or to preserve the advantages of economically successful subregions.     

An American in Berlin: reflections on the German demographic challenge, immigration, and national identity

The “German Demographic Challenge”—an aging society, low birth rates, a falling population size, and a shrinking working-age population—also affects less tangible facets of Germany’s future because these issues may have implications for how Germans see themselves and how they define themselves as a nation-state. This paper explores the complex relationships between national identity, migration, and other population processes in the German context. One consequence of the demographic challenge, acting in concert with immigration, is that the German population will become more diverse over time. Perhaps the more difficult challenge will be how Germany comes to terms with itself given the population changes it will experience.     

Are Parents Investing Less Time in Children? Trends in Selected Industrialized Countries

Trends in parental time invested in children since the 1960s are examined in 16 industrialized countries using time-use survey data. Despite the time pressures that confront today's families, parents appear to be devoting more time to children than they did 40 years ago. Results also suggest that mothers continue to devote more time to childcare than fathers, but the gender gap has been reduced. The consistency of these results across countries suggests a global trend toward an increase in parental time investment in children. Multivariate analysis of trends in parental time by type of activity was undertaken for Canada. It revealed a significant increase in parental time even after controlling for changes in the demographic composition of the population during the past few decades.     

How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History

The world population will reach 7 billion in late 2011, a demographic milestone that is causing renewed attention to the challenges caused by population growth. This article looks at the last 50 years of demographic change, one of the most extraordinary periods in demographic history. During this period, world population grew at rates that have never been seen before and will almost surely never be seen again. There were many concerns about the potential impact of rapid population growth in the 1960s, including mass starvation in countries such as India, depletion of nonrenewable resources, and increased poverty in low-income countries. The actual experience was very different. World food production increased faster than world population in every decade since the 1960s, resource prices fell during most of the period, and poverty declined significantly in much of the developing world. The article considers the economic and demographic explanations for the surprising successes of this important period in demographic history. It also looks at regions that have been less successful, especially Africa, and at the lessons for dealing with the important challenges that still remain.     

Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels

The number of applications of spatial demography has been growing mostly since the 1990s. Ranging from simple visualization to sophisticated spatial analytical techniques, these applications bring a new layer of explanation to demographic phenomena. This paper reviews demographic studies that specifically addressed space with spatial statistical models, and that focused on fertility, mortality, migration, and population models. Additionally, it summarizes different spatial datasets and software freely available, as well as the challenges that exist for the development of spatial demography applications. These challenges include confidentiality issues, scale problems, and the lack of training on spatial analysis in population centers. Although the first and second challenges involve modeling and technical solutions, the latter depends only on demographers’ commitment and willingness to promote change. Several topics for future spatially focused research are also outlined. Finally, the paper makes a strong case regarding the significant contribution that spatial demography can make to the monitoring, evaluation, and implementation of population policies.     

Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food,Agriculture, and Development

Recent long‐term demographic projections suggest a fast deceleration of global population growth and the eventual peaking of world population later in this century at about 9.2 billion, roughly 50 percent above the present level. Some low‐income and food‐insecure countries, however, have projected populations in 2050 that are multiples of present ones. In some of these countries agriculture must play a leading role in their development efforts because they have high economic dependence on that sector. For those among them that have scarce agricultural resources, a prima facie case can be made that the high population growth rates projected may not be compatible with the development potential offered by such resources. Their demographic projections may need to be revisited, taking into account such inadequate potential. The global demographic slowdown notwithstanding, the “population explosion”‐related issues pertaining to food and agriculture will not become irrelevant but will be become increasingly localized.     

Cuba: the demography of revolution

Cuba's post-revolution demographic trends, especially in regard to fertility and emigration, and the causes and consequences of these trends, were examined using available statistical data. The authors maintain that both fertility and emigration trends were highly infuenced by economic factors. The trends are described in the context of the social and economic changes instituted by the revolutionary government. Government policies were aimed at 1) eradicating inequalities in housing, income, education, and health; 2) improving the status of women; and 3) upgrading the living standards of the rural population. Government policies did alleviate many social problems and greatly improved the health and educational status of the population; however, these policies had a marked adverse effect on economic performance. The demographic transition began in Cuba earlier than in most other developing countries and it began long before the 1959 revolution. These earlier changes must be taken into account when assessing the impact of post-revolution policies on demographic trends. Cuba's birthrate declined from 26-14.8/1000 population between 1959-1979 and the total fertility rate declined from 3.7-1.9 between 1970-1978; however, during the 1960s there was a baby boom and the birth rate for 1963 exceeded 35/1000 population. The baby boom was largely a response to the temporary improvement in economic conditions which occurred shortly after the revolution. The decline in fertility during the 1970s was due in part to the increased availability of abortion and contraceptive services and to a decline in the marriage rate; however, Cuba's deteriorating economy was also a major contributing factor. The baby boom of the 1960s is negativley affecting the current economy of the country. Individuals born during the baby boom are entering adulthood and are contributing toward Cuba's current unemployment problems. Prior to the revolution, Cuba experienced a high rate of in-migration. Immediately after the revolution this pattern was reversed and between 1959-1980 more than 800,000 Cubans emigrated. Most of these emigrants went to the U.S. A large proportion of the earlier emigrants were members of the upper and middle socioeconomic classes. Recent emigrants were more evenly representative of all segments of Cuba's population. The socioeconomic characteristics of the emigrants are described and their adjustment in the U.S. is discussed. Tables provide statistical data on Cuba's demographic trends.     

World population in transition

The world's population growth rate peaked at slightly over 2%/year in the late 1960s and in 1986 is down to 1.7% and falling. Annual numbers added continue to rise because these rates apply to a very large base, 4.9 billion in 1986. According to UN medium variant projections, world population growth will peak at 89 million/year in the late 1990s and then taper off until world population stabilizes in the late decade of the 21st century at about 10.2 billion. Close to 95% of this growth is occurring in less developed countries (LDCs) of Africa, Asia (minus Japan), and Latin America. LDC fertility rates are declining, except in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America and South Asia, but most have far to go to reach the replacement level of 2.1 births/woman. Fertility is below replacement in virtually all more developed countries. For LDCs, large numbers will be added before stabilization even after attainment of replacement level fertility because of the demographic momentum built into their large and young population bases. This complicates efforts to bridge gaps between living standards in LDCs and industrialized countries. From a new debate about whether rapid population growth deters or stimulates economic growth, a more integrated view has emerged. This view recognizes the complementary relationship between efforts to slow population growth and other development efforts; e.g., to improve health and education, upgrade women's status, increase productivity. Most effective in the increased contraceptive prevalence and fertility declines seen in many LDCs has been the combination of organized programs to increase access to family planning information and supplies with socioeconomic development that enhances the desire for smaller families.     

A demographic perspective on the Muslim world

A demographic perspective is relevant to understanding the position of Muslims in today’s world. This paper examines the size and growth of Muslim populations, and whether most Muslims live in overwhelmingly Muslim countries. It also examines indices of poverty and human development for Muslimmajority countries, and the growth of the youth population; finally, it examines the key components of population growth: mortality and fertility. Mortality has declined sharply over the past 15 years in many Muslim countries, though not in all, and Muslim countries are no longer prominent among the ‘outliers’ with higher mortality than expected on the basis of their income levels. Fertility rates are also declining sharply in a number of major Muslim-majority countries, raising interesting issues about attitudes of different schools of Islamic jurisprudence, village-level religious leaders and ordinary Muslims towards contraception and abortion, as well as the role of socio-economic development and family planning programs in fertility declines. Despite these declines, past high fertility in many Muslim-majority countries leaves as a legacy a rapidly growing adolescent population and a burgeoning, inadequately educated labour force.     

Population growth and poverty in the developing world

The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.     

Clustering EU Countries by Causes of Death

Population Research and Policy Review - Countries with different mortality patterns face different health and demographic challenges. Knowing a country’s position relative to other countries...     

Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility

This research challenges the notion that the second half of the twentieth century was a period of global demographic convergence. To be sure, fertility rates fell substantially during the period, but with considerable un‐evenness. The declines in total fertility across population‐weighted countries were sufficiently disproportionate that intercountry fertility inequality, estimated using standard measures of inequality, did not begin to decline until at least 1995. Regression analysis also shows that only very recently did lagging countries begin to catch up with countries that began the transition to low fertility earlier. Contrary to findings on changing intercountry health inequality, sub‐Saharan Africa has had a greater impact on changes in fertility inequality than China. The trend in fertility inequality, where convergence is a relatively new phenomenon, stands in contrast to trends in inequality in other domains, such as income, education, and health.     

Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia

Changes in the population age structure can have significant effects on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both government revenue and expenditure. In this paper, we project government revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance in developing Asia up to 2050 using a simple stylized model and the National Transfer Accounts data set. Rapidly aging countries are likely to suffer a tangible deterioration of fiscal sustainability under their current tax and expenditure system. On the other hand, rapid economic growth can improve fiscal health in poorer, relatively young countries with still-growing working-age populations. Overall, our results indicate that Asia’s population aging will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability, pointing to a need for Asian countries to further examine the impact of demographic shifts on their fiscal health.