Thinking about change in illegitimacy ratios: United States, 1963–1983

What has been the recent trend in illegitimacy in the United States? The answer depends on what is being measured. If the focus is on illegitimacy rates, then the trend is mixed. Illegitimacy ratios, however, have been skyrocketing. We show that this is primarily the result of declining nuptiaIity (and rising marital dissolution) and secondarily the result of decreases in marital fertility. We argue that the illegitimacy ratio is the better index of the social consequences of out-of-wedlock childbearing and that the high ratios of recent decades are unlikely to abate in the foreseeable future.     

A note on racial differences in the effecty of female economic opportunity on marriage rates

The previously observed aggregate relationship between marriage rates and female work opportunities is not found among black Americans. Alternative definitions of family formation which take illegitimacy into consideration are explored and also found to be unrelated to black females’ economic opportunities. Although some of the difference may be attributed to measurement error, the significant disparity between the two populations probably reflects substantive differences.     

The relationship of the crude birth rate and its components to social and economic development

Using well-known techniques of regression analysis, we decompose the crude birth rate into six analytical components, indicating illegitimacy, the marriage rate, legitimate fertility, and sex and age composition. All the components except sex structure are important in determining differences in crude birth rates across countries of the world. The model is elaborated by showing how economic development affects the crude birth rate through its basic demographic components.     

Factors Affecting Birth Rates Among Black Women 20--24 Years of Age: A Trend Analysis (January 1972--March 1992)

This research provides a multivariate explanation of monthly (N = 243) birth rate variation for African-American women 20--24 years of age using time series analysis. The research explains both seasonal and intermediate variation in these birth rates. The independent variables were selected for their relationship to: economic understandings of fertility; developing understandings of the relationship of photoperiod to reproductive functioning; routine activity theory; and the relationship of birth rates to quality of life perspectives. The findings of this research are interpreted with respect to important developments and understandings in the quality of life literature. Concepts of 'compensatory validation' and 'contextual compatibility' are derived from quality of life understandings and Rainwater's (1974) concept of 'validating activities'. The previously identified importance of domains of intimacy, sexual activity and family life (Cummins, 1996; Alfonso et al., 1996) are related to empirical findings concerning the conception of children and incorporated into these theoretical concepts. Nine explanatory variables were selected. Theoretical, research and policy implications are summarized.     

Determinants of temporal and areal variation in infant mortality in Germany, 1871–1933

This article investigates how sociodemographic, economic, medical, and public health factors influence infant mortality by using data about German administrative areas from 1871 to 1933. Marital fertility has the largest impact on infant mortality, followed by illegitimacy, medical care, urbanization, and infant welfare centers. The variables considered here account for most of the variation in infant mortality. Some of the unexplained variance is due to factors associated with regions, such as breastfeeding patterns, and with time periods, such as national health insurance. The analyses found no evidence that advances in medical technology affected infant mortality or that the influence of economic development changed over time.     

Comparative estimates of teenage illegitimacy in the United States, 1940–44 to 1970–74

Incompleteness in the reporting of illegitimate births in the U.S. vital registration system due to the consistent nonparticipation of a number of large States has left data published by the National Center for Health Statistics open to considerable criticism. Utilizing retrospective marriage and fertility data from the June 1978 Current Population Survey, a national probability sample of 54,000 interviewed households, a time series on teenage illegitimacy for first births is constructed that permits an evaluation of similar Vital Statistics data on teenage illegitimacy since the 1940s. Although there are some indications of a slight underreporting of white illegitimate first births by Vital Statistics during the 1940s and early 1950s, the overall comparison produces a general consensus between the two data sources on the incidence of illegitimacy among both white and nonwhite teenagers for the period 1940–44 to 1970–74.     

Law, marriage and illegitimacy in nineteenth-century Germany

Abstract Concern arose among legislators in several German States during the first half of the nineteenth century about overpopulation and increasing numbers of the impoverished classes. This led them to pass legislation restricting marriage to those considered by the community authorities as morally and financially capable of rearing a family. Census data at the time of the repeal of these laws indicate the extent to which they succeeded in repressing marriage. Declining illegitimacy which paralleled the repeal, however, suggests strongly that the legislation was far less effectual in limiting reproduction than it was in preventing marriage. Added confirmation of this interpretation is provided by the contrasting nuptiality and illegitimacy patterns of German states with liberal marriage regulations.     

Multinational Corporations,Democracy and Child Mortality: A Quantitative,Cross-National Analysis of Developing Countries

This study presents quantitative, sociological models designed to account for cross-national variation in child mortality. We consider variables linked to five different theoretical perspectives that include the economic modernization, social modernization, political modernization, ecological-evolutionary, and dependency perspectives. The study is based on a cross-lagged effects regression analysis of a sample of 59 developing countries. Our preliminary analysis based on additive models replicates prior studies to the extent that we find that indicators linked to economic and social modernization have beneficial effects on child mortality. We also find support for hypotheses derived from the dependency perspective suggesting that multinational corporate penetration fosters higher levels of child mortality. Subsequent analysis incorporating interaction effects suggest that the level of political democracy conditions the effects of dependency relationships based upon multinational corporations. Transnational economic linkages associated with multinational corporations adversely affect child mortality more strongly at lower levels of democracy than at higher levels of democracy–that is intranational, political factors interact with the international, economic forces to affect child mortality. We conclude with some brief policy recommendations and suggestions for the direction of future research.     

Two and a half centuries of demographic history in a Bavarian village

Abstract A village genealogy containing family histories of couples married between 1692 and 1939 serves as the basis for a study of the demographic history of a Bavarian village. The past patterns of marriage, re-marriage, widowhood, illegitimacy, bridal pregnancy, marital fertility, family size, and birth intervals are examined. Both the age at marriage and illegitimacy increased and then declined during the nineteenth century, apparently in response to changes in restrictive marriage legislation. Differences in fertility for occupational groups were insignificant. Marital fertility remained extremely high before 1900 suggesting the absence of any substantial family limitation within marriage. A rise in marital fertility that occurred during the last half of the nineteenth century appears to result from a change in breast-feeding customs. The actual number of children surviving to maturity for most couples was kept quite low, however, through late marriage and high infant mortality. Only during the twentieth century are substantial declines in infant mortality and fertility evident.     

In Social Capital We Trust?

It has been widely postulated in the literature that social capital is positively related to or is the same as trust. The present study presents three theoretical perspectives regarding how individual and organizational social capital may be related to network trust and generalized trust: the compositional element (Putnam), functional equivalence (Fukuyama), and mutual independence (Lin). To each of these perspectives we allocated distinct measures of individual and organizational network mechanisms considering their operational definition of social capital. Using nationally representative data sets from the United States and China, we developed a comparative research design through which the three perspectives were put into an empirical test. In conclusion, we found that the compositional element perspective is most prone to cross-national contingencies, whereas the mutual independence perspective is freer from such contextual influences. In particular, the positive association between number of membership in voluntary associations (organizational social capital) and generalized trust exists only in the United States, whereas individual social capital based on network diversity and resources is unrelated to generalized trust in neither country. Lastly, the functional equivalence perspective does not get empirical support from the data, particularly with regard to the proposed negative relationship between network closure and generalized trust. These findings challenge the assumptions concerning the positive association or equivalence between social capital and trust in the literature.

     

The effect of marital status at first birth on marital dissolution among adolescent mothers

The sequencing of marriage and first birth was expected to play an important role in the stability of marriage among adolescent mothers. We hypothesized that adolescent women who married prior to conception would have the lowest rates of marital disruption, followed by those who married between conception and birth. Adolescent women who gave birth prior to marriage were expected to suffer the highest rates of marital dissolution. The results provide partial support for our hypotheses. There is little difference in the probability of separation between adolescent mothers who had a postmarital conception and those who had a premarital conception but married before the birth. Having a premarital birth, however, significantly increases the probability of marital dissolution. We also hypothesized that marital status at first birth would have less effect on the probability of marital dissolution for blacks than for whites. This, too, is generally supported by our findings. Among black females, those with a premarital birth are the first to suffer a marital disruption, but by the end of ten years there is little difference in the probability of separation among the three marital status groups. In contrast, among white females, those with a premarital birth are the first to experience a disruption, and this differential persists over all subsequent marriage duration intervals. Thus, the sequencing of marriage relative to birth has similar short term effects for whites and blacks, but the effect for blacks is evident only in the short term. Ten years after the marriage, black adolescent mothers have similar rates of marital stability regardless of the sequencing of marriage. This is consistent with the findings of previous research and with our hypothesis; with the black family pattern of lower rates of marriage, higher rates of illegitimacy and higher divorce rates, the sequencing of marriage has no long lasting consequences on marital stability. Finally, our predicted decline in the effect of marital status at first birth over historical time also finds partial support. For white females there has been a change in the effect of marriage-first birth sequencing on separation over time. In the period encompassed by the women in our study, white adolescent mothers who married subsequent to the birth have been the most likely to experience a separation at all marriage duration intervals, but this differential narrows as age at interview declines. Among black females there has been no change in the effect of a premarital birth over time.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the united states, 1960–1992*

We use a method of standardization and decomposition developed by Das Gupta to update Smith and Cutright’s analysis of demographic factors responsible for increases in the nonmarital fertility ratio (illegitimacy ratio) among blacks and whites in the United States. We create standardized rates for each year between 1960 and 1992, and consistent, exhaustive decompositions of the nonmarital fertility ratio for any interval during this period in terms of four components: (1) the age distribution of women of reproductive age, (2) the proportion of women unmarried at each age, (3) the age-specific birth rates of married women, and (4) the age-specific birth rates of unmarried women. Nonmarital fertility ratios are much higher among blacks than among whites, but both increased monotonically from 1960 to 1992. During the last 10 years, each increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Increases in the proportion of women not married, at all ages, account for the preponderance of the increase in black nonmarital fertility ratios. Increasing rates of unmarried childbearing, however, have played a role during the most recent decade (1983–1992). For whites, from 1960 until 1975, declines in marital fertility were most important in producing increases in the proportion of children born out of wedlock. Since then, these proportions have increased primarily because of increases in unmarried women s birth rates, and secondarily because of declines in the proportion of women who are married. These trends are consistent with arguments that emphasize declining economic incentives to marry and reduced access to, and acceptability of, abortion.     

The Decline of Smoking Among Female Birth Cohorts in China in the 20th Century: A Case of Arrested Diffusion?

The smoking prevalence by age of women in China is distinct from most other countries in showing more frequent smoking among older women than younger. Using newly developed birth cohort histories of smoking, the authors demonstrate that although over one quarter of women born 1908-1912 smoked, levels of smoking declined across successive cohorts. This occurred despite high rates of smoking by men and the wide availability of cigarettes. The analysis shows how this pattern is counter to that predicted by the leading theoretical perspectives on the diffusion of smoking and suggests that it arose out of a mix of Confucian traditions relating to gender and the socio-economic and political events early in the 20(th) century which placed emerging women's identities in conflict with national identities. That a similar pattern of smoking is evident in Japan and Korea, two countries with strong cultural affinities to China, is used to buttress the argument.     

Validation of an inferential approach for the measurement of illegitimacy

An inferential model which utilizes surname comparisons in inferring legitimacy status is developed and validated. Criterion validation is employed to assess the level of agreement between the inferential approach and the conventional reporting procedure. Data for the analysis are based on a sample of birth certificates contained in files of the National Center for Health Statistics for calendar year 1973. Results indicate that despite excessive error within some categories of the control variables, the inferential method is generally adequate to obtain reliable estimates of illegitimacy.     

Comment on ‘The random variation in rates based on total enumeration of events’ by J. R. Udry,C. Teddlie,C. M. Suchindran

This comment builds on the work of Udry et al., developing a model of random variation of vital rates in small geographical areas. The model is based on the division of the variance of vital rates into three parts; that which would occur in a homogenous population; that due to population heterogeneity; and that due to yearly fluctuations in the underlying basis for the mean value of the probability of the vital event in question. Contrary to Udry et al., this model demonstrates that population heterogeneity must decrease the overall vital rate variance. Using birth rates presented in Udry et al., a test of the new model demonstrates the importance of the third factor, yearly fluctuations, in determining year-to-year variation in birth rates.     

How often do australians move? alternative measures of population mobility

Conventional census-based measures of population mobility are conceptually abstruse, ignore multiple moves and obscure the diversity of human migration experience. This paper explores three alternatives and outlines their strengths and limitations. Application of life table techniques to convert transition rates to migration expectancies generates measures that are more readily understood, automatically standardizes for age and enables the timing of mobility to be analysed methodically. Data on movement frequencies and residence duration provide new perspectives indicating substantial chronic mobility and significant differences between frequent movers and long term stayers. A number of simple summary statistics are proposed to supplement transition rates.     

A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility

This work offers an explanation for the apparent contradiction between empirical work that finds a negative relationship between unemployment and fertility, and theoretical work that emphasizes the lower opportunity cost of childbearing while unemployed. I reconcile these perspectives by distinguishing between two forms of unemployment. The first form is structural unemployment, while the second form is cyclical unemployment, a less permanent component of unemployment that is linked to the economic cycle. I apply a cohort-based model to study both effects over the life cycle using panel data methods applied to a sample of developed countries. My results show that higher levels of structural unemployment decrease fertility, but that the effects of cyclical variations in unemployment depend to a large extent on the age at which they are experienced. Cyclical reductions in the unemployment level mostly result in increases in fertility rates. However, for some age groups, positive variations in the cyclical component of unemployment can also have a positive impact on fertility.     

Equity,efficiency, and identity: Grounding the debate over population and sustainability

If social scientists are to provide a more useful contribution to international debates over population and environment, we must find ways to combine the insights of our competing theoretical traditions. Political economy, rational choice, and cultural institutionalist perspectives are each associated with a different assessment and characterization of the population problem, as well as divergent strategies of response, prioritizing in turn the goals of equity, efficiency, and cultural identity. The principal argument of this paper is that these three perspectives, and the goals which they embody, are like the three legs of a stool; none is sufficient and each is necessary to uphold socially acceptable responses to population growth in the context of broader challenges of sustainability. Each perspective is reviewed in turn, distinguishing narrow and polarizing applications that trivialize the way social and economic systems rely on the natural environment from applications that are useful in fashioning a more integrated approach. The paper concludes with reflections on how this approach may support and enrich a focus on sustainable livelihoods in development planning.     

The Persistence of High Fertility in the American South on the Eve of the Baby Boom

Pockets of high fertility persisted in some areas of the American South through the Great Depression. Most other areas of the country adopted modem fertility patterns considerably earlier in the century; these “laggard” areas are clear exceptions to the national demographic revolution in family building. In this paper we attempt to identify the factors that account for the persistently high fertility in some southern regions. We use county-level data for 1940 to assess the utility of three theoretical models of fertility: structural, diffusion-innovation, and health. Differences by race are also considered, in view of the distinctly different histories of whites and African-Americans in the south. Our findings suggest that unicausal explanations for the persistence of high fertility are too simplistic; all three theoretical perspectives receive empirical support. Considerable similarity is observed in the findings for blacks and for whites. Yet important differences also emerge, especially the more powerful effects of structural variables on white fertility. We conclude that the evidence indicates the need for “diversity” in the study of demographic behavior. Not only should we examine a variety of causal mechanisms for demographic phenomena; we also should consider the varying utility of those mechanisms across different social groups.