RESERVE PRICE EFFECTS IN AUCTIONS: ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REGRESSION‐DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS

We present evidence from 260,000 online auctions of second‐hand cars to identify the impact of public reserve prices on auction outcomes. We exploit multiple discontinuities in the relationship between reserve prices and vehicle characteristics to present causal regression‐discontinuity estimates of reserve price impacts. We find an increase in reserve price decreases the number of bidders, increases the likelihood the object remains unsold, and increases expected revenue conditional on sale. We then combine these estimates to calibrate the reserve price effect on the auctioneer's ex ante expected revenue. This reveals the auctioneer's reserve price policy to be locally optimal. (JEL D44, L11, L62)     

TEACHING TOOLS: INTERTEMPORAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION: DISTRIBUTIVE ISSUES SURROUNDING GASOLINE PRICE HIKES

This paper shows that many people misinterpreted the gasoline price increases that followed Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. Consumers expressed outrage when prices increased immediately even though a production shortfall did not materialize for several weeks. But by withholding output in the invasion's aftermath arbitragers (including oil companies) reallocated output intertemporally to make more available when it was needed most. The welfare consequences in general depend upon demand elasticities and their rate of change, but in this instance consumer surplus would probably have been maximized with a full and immediate price adjustment and oil companies profited from their restraint.     

GASOLINE PRICES AND ROAD FATALITIES: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This study utilizes data for 144 countries from 1991 to 2010 to present the first international estimates of the gasoline price elasticity of road fatalities. We instrument each country's gasoline price with that country's oil reserves and the yearly international crude oil price to address potential endogeneity concerns. Our findings suggest that the average reduction in road fatalities resulting from a 10% increase in the gasoline pump price is in the order of 3%–6%. Around 35,000 road deaths per year could be avoided by the removal of global fuel subsidies. (JEL R41, H23, O18, Q43)     

PERFECT COMPETITION, URBANIZATION, AND TAX INCIDENCE IN THE RETAIL GASOLINE MARKET

We use monthly gasoline price data for all 50 U.S. states over the period 1984–1999 to examine the incidence of state gasoline excise taxes. Our estimation results indicate full shifting of gasoline taxes to the final consumer. In addition, although we find that gasoline retail prices demonstrate asymmetric responses to changes in gasoline wholesale prices , we find only limited evidence of such behavior for retail prices with respect to gasoline excise taxes. Finally, we find that gasoline markets in urban states exhibit full shifting, but those in rural states (with less competition) demonstrate somewhat less than full shifting . ( JEL H22)     

RETAIL REDLINING: ARE GASOLINE PRICES HIGHER IN POOR AND MINORITY NEIGHBORHOODS?

This study uses new data on retail gasoline prices in three cities to provide evidence on the relationship between neighborhood characteristics and consumer prices. We find that prices do not vary greatly with neighborhood racial composition, but that prices are higher in poor neighborhoods. For a 10% point increase in poor families relative to middle‐upper income families, retail gasoline prices increase by an average of 0.70%. Two‐thirds of this differential is explained by cost, competition, and demand characteristics of poor neighborhoods. The remaining differential likely reflects price discrimination in response to lower competition and/or more inelastic demand in poor neighborhoods. (JEL D43, J15, L71)     

SPATIAL COMPETITION AND THE PRICE OF COLLEGE

This article provides the first evidence that universities compete directly on price, and that the market for students depends on the proximity of competitors. Exploiting detailed data from private U.S. universities, price competition is tested by introducing geographic proximity into a spatial-autoregressive tuition model. Standard spatial models show that list and net tuition are inversely related to distance between institutions, consistent with price competition in higher education. An extension to the spatial-econometrics literature relaxes a constraint that estimated spatial relationships are common across all observations, implying that spatial effects differ across qualitative classes of institutions . ( JEL C21, I2, L11)     

A THEORY OF BILATERAL OLIGOPOLY

In horizontal mergers, concentration is often measured with the Hirschman–Herfindahl Index (HHI). This index yields the price–cost margins in Cournot competition. In many modern merger cases, both buyers and sellers have market power, and indeed, the buyers and sellers may be the same set of firms. In such cases, the HHI is inapplicable. We develop an alternative theory that has similar data requirements as the HHI, applies to intermediate good industries with arbitrary numbers of firms on both sides, and specializes to the HHI when buyers have no market power. The more inelastic is the downstream demand, the more captive production and consumption (not traded in the intermediate market) affects price–cost margins. The analysis is applied to the merger of the gasoline refining and retail assets of Exxon and Mobil in the western United States. (JEL L13, L41)     

A GUIDE TO THE PITFALLS OF IDENTIFYING PRICE DISCRIMINATION

This paper demonstrates that plausible cost-based explanations exist for what are commonly perceived to be cases of price discrimination. We explain such commonly discussed problems as the price spreads of retail gasoline products, the "high" price of dinners at restaurants, the "high" price of popcorn at movie theaters, and the fact that airline ticket prices vary with how long the ticket is purchased before the flight's departure. Our explanations benefit from not relying on consumer ignorance or implicit collusion among numerous sellers.     

THE ECONOMICS OF CARPOOLS

The paper shows how separate parts of a work trip enter the decision to carpool, and examines how the size of a carpool is related to the gasoline price, the wage rate, speed limits, and other factors. The paper also suggests that policies designed to promote carpooling may produce perverse effects on gasoline consumption.     

THE WELFARE COSTS OF RATIONING BY WAITING

With price controls and rationing by waiting, rational consumers increase the quantity bought per purchase. This individually rational response is socially wasteful and the cost of making it is a deadweight loss. This cost plus the value of time spent in queues may exceed the total rent transferred from suppliers to consumers by price controls; i.e., the value of resources spent competing for the rent may exceed the rent itself. This point is illustrated by an empirical application to gasoline price controls. Rent seeking exhausts an estimated 116 percent of the rent transferred.     

ON FRUITFUL AND FUTILE TESTS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEARCH AND PRICE DISPERSION

We exploit cross‐sectional and temporal differences in search intensity in order to examine the relationship between search costs and price dispersion using a hand‐collected panel data set from Jerusalem's Shuk Mahane Yehuda outdoor market. We present empirical evidence that price dispersion increases with the cost of search using several different measures of price dispersion; however, our interpretation of this finding is sensitive to the search proxy in question. We also address several acute difficulties facing empiricists seeking to test theoretical price‐dispersion models in which consumers are heterogeneous in their search behavior. (JEL L11, L13)     

Price perception and confirmation bias in the context of a VAT increase

This paper examines a potential confirmation bias in price perception in consequence to a real-world event and different explanations for such a confirmation bias. In a panel design conducted 2 months before and after a raise in value-added tax (VAT), 303 participants had to estimate the current prices for four products affected and four products not affected by this raise in VAT and the anticipated or recalled prices of these products. Before the VAT increase, an undifferentiated belief in strong future price increases was prevalent. After the VAT increase, a confirmation bias was found: in retrospect, participants reported price increases that were significantly higher than the official price development and in line with an undifferentiated belief in marked price increases. Two theoretical explanations for confirmation bias, i.e., the biased use of price information and the selective distortion of memory, fit the data.     

THE EXTENT OF THE MARKET AND INTEGRATION THROUGH FACTOR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY

We document the influence of factor markets in determining the extent of the market, appealing to the Mundell hypothesis that trade in goods and factor markets are substitutes. We confirm this influence using the U.S. wholesale market for electric power. Although the Eastern, Western, and Texas regions cannot trade electricity, inputs such as natural gas move freely across these regions. Through a set of price transmission ratios, and a supply model for natural gas, we find regional electricity shocks do propagate across regions. We conclude output markets institutionally in autarky achieve modest degrees of economic integration through factor markets. (JEL C32, L94, Q41)     

Frequency of price increases and perceived inflation. An experimental investigation

The effect of frequency of subjective experience of price increases on perceived inflation, i.e. the subjective experience of general price development, is investigated. The paper presents a two-phased psychological model of perceived inflation: first, information about product price increases is gathered in daily purchase. Second, these are integrated into one perceived inflation judgment. In the integration phase, the complexity of the task should trigger heuristic processing: higher frequency of price increases should enhance their availability and thus perceived inflation. Participants simulated purchases in two scenarios. Frequency of products with increased prices was varied while overall expenditure increases as well as relative price increase of individual products were balanced. Experiment 1 presented a high frequency condition with a majority of increased prices relative to previously learned reference prices and a low frequency condition with a majority of stable prices. Experiment 2 balanced cognitive effort for product price change estimation over conditions by replacing absolutely stable prices with slightly increased prices. As predicted, perceived inflation was higher with high frequencies of increased prices, while price increases of individual products were judged correctly. Experiment 3 ruled out the alternative hypothesis that presentation duration, which in the previous experiments correlated with presentation frequency, might have been the determining factor.     

BERTRAND COMPETITION WITH ASYMMETRIC MARGINAL COSTS

This article tests the prediction of three discrete asymmetric duopoly price competition games in the laboratory. The games differ from each other in terms of the size of the cost asymmetry that induces a systematic variation in the difference between the firms' marginal costs. While the standard theory requires the low‐cost firm to set a price just equal to the high‐cost firm's marginal cost, which is identical across all three games, and win the entire market, intuition suggests that market price may increase with a decrease in the absolute difference between the two marginal costs. We develop a quantal response equilibrium model to test our competing conjecture. (JEL L11, L12, C91, D43)     

ASYMMETRIES IN THE RESPONSES OF REGIONAL JOB FLOWS TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS

This paper studies the effect of oil price innovations on manufacturing job flows across U.S. states. First, I estimate a nonlinear structural equation model and compute impulse response functions by Monte Carlo integration. I find asymmetries in the responses of job flows to positive and negative oil price innovations. Yet, these asymmetries do not pass a test of symmetry on the impulse responses, especially after accounting for data mining. Third, I use a test for the absence of job reallocation to evaluate whether an unexpected increase in the real price of oil price triggers an important change in job reallocation. I find that oil price shocks have limited regional allocative effects. (JEL E24, E32, Q43)     

Geographical aspects of US farmland values and changes during the 1978–1992 period

Data from the US Census of Agriculture suggest important changes since 1978 in regional patterns of farmland values. This study examines these patterns with the aid of county-level maps showing average values per hectare for the Census years 1978, 1982, 1987 and 1992 and changes between these years. Farmland price increases are geographically associated with general proximity to major population centers and the presence of aesthetically attractive natural landscapes, while these two attributes in combination are generally absent in areas not experiencing price increases. The widespread phenomenon of non-commercial farming as a factor in farmland price increases is examined. It is hypothesized that such site factors as climate and soils which traditionally have helped explain higher farmland prices in some regions are of diminishing importance, while situational factors such as proximity to major population centers are in the ascendancy. The changing importance of site versus situational factors is assessed using analysis of variance tests comparing the influence on farmland values of the predominately situational differences between metropolitan, nonmetropolitan-adjacent and nonmetropolitan-nonadjacent settings, versus the predominately site differences between major agricultural regions.     

Why Did Semiconductor Price Indexes Fall So Fast in the 1990s? A Decomposition

Price deflators for semiconductors fell rapidly over the 1990s, pulled down by steep declines in the deflator for the microprocessor (MPU) segment that accelerated around 1995. A decomposition of a price index for Intel's MPUs suggests that virtually all of the declines in the price index—and the acceleration—can be attributed to quality increases associated with product innovation, rather than declines in the cost per chip. The sizable decline in Intel's margins from 1993–99 only accounted for about 6 percentage points of the average 24% decline per quarter in the price index and cannot explain the acceleration. (JEL D42, L63, O47)     

VERTICAL SEPARATION INCREASES GASOLINE PRICES

I examine the relationship between vertical separation and gasoline stations' prices and sales. The endogeneity of stations' organizational forms is addressed using both panel methods and an instrumental variables strategy. Controlling for the endogeneity of form, I find that vertical separation raises margins by 25%–45% but does not have a statistically significant impact on output. I interpret these results as suggesting that vertical separation induces local agents to exert effort in ways that increase consumers' demand. (JEL L14, L24, L81)     

Impacts of Long-Range Increases in the Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard

This work models the impact of higher CAFE standards on producer and consumer welfare, gasoline consumption, externalities from increased driving, and the emissions of traditional pollutants. In particular, a long-run 3.0 MPG increase in the CAFE standard is estimated to impose welfare losses of about $4 billion per year and save about 5.2 billion gallons of gasoline per year, for a hidden tax of $0.78 per gallon conserved. An 11-cent-per-gallon increase in the gasoline tax would save the same amount of fuel at a welfare cost of about $290 million per year, or about one-fourteenth the cost. (JEL L51 , Q30 )