西方国家的“痛苦指数”与我国政府的核心政绩指标

当今市场经济体制国家政府管理经济的职能,主要体现在GDP增长、控制失业率,抑制通货膨胀和保持国际收支平衡四个方面,其中控制失业率占有重要的地位。美国的痛苦指数,是反映国民经济运行的重要指标,也是了解民意最直接的变量,其通货膨胀与失业指标也是社会保障制度建设中最需要关注的现实问题。我国是社会主义国家,关注弱势群体的精神与物质基本需求,大力实施再就业工程,增加弱势群体的可支配收入,提高生活质量,应成为我国社会政策目标最重要的目标之一。     

兼顾经济发展与就业增长的路径

20世纪90年代以来,中国经济发展中出现了一个现象,即"高经济增长,低通货膨胀,高失业率".失业人口的增长给经济和社会发展带来了极大的隐患.如何正确理解和处理经济增长与就业增长的关系,使经济增长与就业增长能够同步进行,是解决我国高经济增长与高失业率并存问题的关键.     

也谈失业人口的定义及统计口径——兼与姚引妹同志商榷

我国是一个劳动力资源十分丰富而自然资源相对贫乏、经济不够发达的国家,劳动力供需矛盾十分突出,特别是在计划经济向市场经济转换的历史时期,计划经济下的“充分就业”政策将逐渐被“有效就业”政策所取代,失业人员增多将会不可避免。在市场经济体制下,失业率是反映宏观经济运行状况的重要社会经济指标之一,市场经济国家的各届政府无不将降低失业率作为其重要的施政目标。我国随着市场经济体制的逐步建立,失业率对宏观经济运行的指示器作用也必然趋于显著。近年来,失业问题已成为政府及社会各界十分关注的热点。《浙江统计》1997年…     

对改进中国失业统计方法的探讨

失业问题是人类进入工业化以来一直困扰世界各国的经济和社会问题，也是与债务、通货膨胀并列的世界三大难题之一。中国在步入市场经济的过程中，同样不可避免地遇到了失业问题的因扰。目前在中国失业现象已普遍存在，并且成为影响社会稳定与经济发展的一个非常不利的因素，因而引起了社会各界的高度重视。但长期以来，中国一直否认社会主义有失业问题存在，从而导致国家失业统计的记录真空。正确地统计失业人数和准确地计算失业率是一国制定和实施各种宏观经济政策（如：就业政策、失业安置、失业保障措施等）的重要基础。本文就怎样利用中…     

论传统菲利普斯曲线的非完全验证性

经济全球化促使世界宏观经济状况发生深刻变化,并导致传统菲利普斯曲线及其相机抉择政策导向对现实问题的解释力弱化,和呈现理论上的缺失。因此,治理通货膨胀和失业率需要相关宏观经济政策最优组合,而不宜仅仅依据传统菲利普斯曲线。     

建立和健全新的失业统计指标体系

在政府和公众面临严重失业问题的今天，统计学如何运用～套统计指标科学地、有效地反映我国的失业情况，从而为制定就业政策、失业安置与保障政策提供科学的依据，这是摆在统计工作者面前的重要课题，本文拟在分析现有失业统计指标与我国失业现状的差距的基础上，借鉴国外有益的经验试图建立健全适合我国国情的失业统计指标体系。一、我国现有的失业统计指标的不足从实际来看，1997年末我国公布的城镇登记的失业率仅3．1％，而1994年美国的失业率为6．3％，欧盟各国平均失业率则为121％。就国际通行标准来判断，失业率在5－9％为失业较轻，2…     

城镇就业人员增加全年形势平稳趋好

上半年，四川就业工作取得可喜成绩，就业人员增加较多，失业率下降，城乡人民生活也有明显改善，社会保障事业健康发展，保持了社会稳定。     

加速建立我国失业预警监测系统

中国统计建立我国失业预警监测系统的必要性１．就业、失业及其与经济发展的关系经济增长率、通货膨胀率和失业率是西方发达国家监测宏观经济运行和进行宏观调控的三个首选指标。最大程度降低失业率、实现充分就业在政府政策目标中占有非常重要的地位，它直接关系到人民生活水平的高低，社会发展稳定与否。我国正处于市场经济体制建设过程之中，失业作为体制转换的必要成本，市场经济的产物在相当长的时期内将持续存在。随着国民经济的持续发展和全面建设小康社会奋斗目标的确立，失业这一困扰各国经济发展的难题正在受到政府和社会的普遍关…     

论就业的经济效果

据统计资料显示，我国到1997年底城镇登记失业人员已达57O万，失业率为3．回％，估计全国城镇实际失业率已达936％，超过了我国一些专家所认为的9％的失业警戒线。失业及下岗人员的再就业问题已成为当前我国社会生活中亟需研究和解决的重大课题。本文旨在在构造就业经济效果二元模型的基础上，对就业的经济效果逐一加以分析。一、二元模型的构建一般来说，社会福利分为物质福利和精神福利两类。在经济研究中，“因为精神福利不能作为社会经济政策的主题”，通常被排除在外。所以我们所要研究的经济效果基本上等同于社会福利中可以用货币来…     

基于行政大数据的失业率估计:以某四百万人口城市为例

我国城镇登记失业率指标稳定在4%左右,难以较为准确反映就业动态;而劳动力调查样本量有限,城镇调查失业率对省以下各级行政区域代表性不足。本文将针对大数据的机器学习算法与针对传统统计数据的核算思想结合起来,基于某四百万人口城市2016—2018年的全样本行政大数据,利用机器学习算法,对每个城镇居民每个月的就业状态进行预测,再利用统计核算方法,估计出该城市的失业率。在个人层面,本文的模型在样本外测试集上的准确率达到96.7%。经过统计核算加总,本文估计的当地失业率在合理区间范围内,并表现出明显的周期性特征,对就业形势动态变化的刻画明显优于当地一年发布一次的登记失业率数据。本文基于个人层面的预测结果,进一步探讨了当地失业人口 的性别与文化程度特征,以及再就业的时间规律。本文针对如何使用行政大数据辅助经济决策提出了新的范式,对大数据时代如何理解经济与制定政策具有参考意义。     

Unemployment duration and the length of entitlement periods for unemployment benefits: do the IAB employment subsample and the German Socio-Economic Panel yield the same results?*

Summary: We compare information on the length of unemployment spells contained in the IAB employment subsample (IABS) and in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Due to the lack of information on registered unemployment in the IABS, we use two proxies of unemployment in the IABS as introduced by Fitzenberger/Wilke (2004). The first proxy comprises all periods of nonemployment after an employment spell which contain at least one period with unemployment compensation transfers. The second proxy includes all episodes between two employment spells during which an individual continuously received unemployment benefits. Estimation of standard duration models indicates that conclusions drawn from the IABS and the GSOEP differ in many cases. While the GSOEP suggests that the hazard rate has a maximum at about 12 months of unemployment, the IABS results suggest that this maximum is at about 20 months. Contrary to our GSOEP results and contrary to many results based on the GSOEP found in the literature, we find a statistically significant association between longer maximum entitlement periods of unemployment benefits (‘Arbeitslosengeld’) and longer unemployment durations for men in the IABS. The results for women do not show such clear patterns. The large sample size of the IABS also allows to trace out statistically significant effects of characteristics such as regional and industry indicators, which is generally not possible in the relatively small GSOEP. * Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the editors of this special issue, Joachim M?ller and Bernd Fitzenberger, two anonymous referees, the participants of the ‘Statistische Woche 2004’ in Frankfurt (in particular Reinhard Hujer, Olaf Hübler and Gerd Ronning), seminar participants at the ZEW Mannheim (especially Fran?ois Laisney and Alexander Spermann) and Jennifer Hunt for their many helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are our own. Financial support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) through the research project ‘Microeconometric modelling of unemployment durations under consideration of the macroeconomic situation’ is gratefully acknowledged. The data used in this paper were made available by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) at the Federal Labour Office of Germany, Nürnberg, and the German Socio Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin.     

Producing Monthly Estimates of Unemployment and Employment According to the International Labour Office Definition

Monthly unemployment statistics are available in Britain from a monthly count of the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. There has been considerable debate on the appropriateness of this measure. Unemployment and employment statistics are available quarterly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), using International Labour Office (ILO) definitions. In this paper various options for producing monthly unemployment estimates according to the ILO definition are examined. Methods considered are a monthly LFS, calculating rolling averages from the quarterly LFS, and methods which combine LFS and claimant count data. It is proposed that a monthly LFS of 60 000 households be introduced which can produce monthly estimates of total unemployment and more detailed estimates quarterly. Such a survey would also fill an important gap by providing monthly employment statistics which are needed to provide a complete picture of the labour market.     

Decline and fall: Unemployment among Britain's non-white ethnic communities 1960–1999

The declining employment fortunes of Britain's non-white communities, relative to whites, are explained. To achieve this comparison, some historical official sources of unemployment data are reviewed. The earliest known official time series on unemployment of non-whites dates back to 1960. This historical context is explored, especially the reluctance to make the early data more widely known. An unemployment series for non-white males and females from 1970 to 1999 is derived in two separate ways by splicing together official sources. These series are compared with unemployment of whites to demonstrate a relative increase in unemployment of non-whites.     

技术进步的就业效应量化研究

＂无就业增长＂现象再次引发对技术进步的就业效应之思考,利用中国的宏观经济数据,通过构建技术进步的就业效应模型,从劳动力需求方面分析技术进步对就业的影响,研究结果表明：技术进步一方面提高劳动生产率减少就业;另一方面增加产出扩大投资增加就业,同时创造出新的产业和部门扩大经济范围增加就业,但其减少的就业量超过了增加的就业量,因而最终表现为净就业量损失,平均每年净减少就业量为3 000万～3 500万人。     

试论健全失业统计调查制度

失业作为宏观经济关注的一个主要问题 ,失业率作为监测宏观经济运行的一个主要指标 ,其重要性正在与日俱增。无论一个国家经济增长率有多高 ,物价变动多么稳定 ,国际收支顺差多好 ,只要失业率居高不下 ,就不能说该国宏观经济运行状况多么健康、有序和良好。我国政府统计工作经过很多年尤其是改革开放 2 0多年来的不断发展 ,宏观经济统计调查监测体系日益完善 ,但是 ,不容讳言 ,其中也存在不足 ,尤为突出的就是失业统计调查相对薄弱 ,在一定程度上影响了失业问题的解决和就业问题的促进。有鉴于此 ,本文对健全我国失业统计调查制度进行了探讨…     

Monte Carlo integration: An application to labour market states and transitions

This paper is concerned with the application of simulation estimation methods to micro-econometric labour market models. Based on a multi-period probit model for direct job changes and unemployment, estimators for the likelihood of individual employment histories are obtained by Monte Carlo integration and employed in a standard ML-procedure. The results for West German panel data suggest that dynamic effects are largely prevalent on labour markets and that in particular, past unemployment has drastic negative effects on future employment chances. Further, there are no indications that foreigners have a different labour market performance, nor that they are crowding natives out into unemployment.     

城乡非农就业结构、人口转移方式与城镇化水平的关系——基于中国数据的研究

利用中国1952—2011年的数据,从理论和实证两个方面研究了非农化、城乡非农结构和人口转移方式对城镇化的影响。研究表明,城镇化水平与非农就业比重、农村非农就业占城乡总非农就业比重、城镇劳动参与率、农村劳动参与率四个变量间存在着均衡关系。中国城镇化在波动期、持续增长期、快速增长期等几个发展阶段中,受非农化、城乡非农结构和人口转移方式的影响不一样。中国城镇化要健康发展,应该调整城乡非农结构和平滑城镇化过程。同时,要注意改变人口转移方式,使更多的非劳动力能伴随劳动力的转移而进入城镇。     

Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment

We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S. unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold auto-regressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate. This finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual.     

Simple non-parametric estimators for unemployment duration analysis

Summary.  We consider an extension of conventional univariate Kaplan–Meier-type estimators for the hazard rate and the survivor function to multivariate censored data with a censored random regressor. It is an Akritas-type estimator which adapts the non-parametric conditional hazard rate estimator of Beran to more typical data situations in applied analysis. We show with simulations that the estimator has nice finite sample properties and our implementation appears to be fast. As an application we estimate non-parametric conditional quantile functions with German administrative unemployment duration data.