乡-城转移人口的生育率水平问题

乡一城人口转移作为城市化过程,总体上有利于生育率下降或低生育水平的稳定。但是,由于乡一城转移人口的生育率水平具有既不同于城也有别于乡的差别特征,因此这种转移对城乡生育率的变化必然产生一定的差别效应。通常认为,乡一城转移人口的生育率水平介于城乡之间,即低于乡而高于城。但是,有关研究认为,我国乡一城迁移流动人口的生育率水平已经转变为低于城市。对此,很值得进一步深入探讨。本文首先分析我国城乡生育率的变化和区域差异,然后对乡一城转移人口的总和生育率进行尝试性的推算,最后聚焦讨论流动人口生育行为的流动性问题。     

Differentiation of voivodeships in terms of the number of children in the household

The author attempts to answer the question, "Are the numbers of households [in Poland] with specific numbers of supported children (structures) in the total number of households similar or dissimilar in all voivodeships, and where [are these] identical (similar) or dramatically different?" Results indicate that "the most differentiated voivodeships, in terms of the number of children below 24 years of age supported by households, were voivodeships of north-eastern and south-eastern Poland. In the case of male heads of households the number of voivodeships making up areas of the highest differentiation regarding the number of children below 24 years is definitely bigger than for the female heads of households."     

Regional differences in marital fertility in the Netherlands in the second half of the nineteenth century

Abstract In the Netherlands, as in other countries, substantial regional differences in the birth rate have always been the rule rather than the exception. Of course, differences in crude birth rates may be attributed to a number of possible reasons, not all of them of primary demographic interest. For instance, according to the census of 31st December 1899, the number of women per 1,000 men in the province of Drenthe was only 924; in the province of Zuidholland the corresponding number was 1,073. It is clear that, ceteris paribus, the crude birth rate in Zuidholland would be about 7% higher than in Drenthe at that time. In such a case, the difference could reflect differences in economic development or job opportunities, factors not devoid of demographic significance, but only indirectly so.     

全面二孩政策对城镇职工基本养老保险收支的影响

2016年1月1日全面二孩政策正式实施,结束了我国实施将近30年的独生子女政策.本文通过构建城镇职工基本养老保险收入和支出模型,以研究2016—2100年全面二孩政策下基本养老金收支关系的变化.研究发现,生育二孩的夫妇越多,养老统筹基金开始出现支出大于收入的年份相应地向后推移,处于支出大于收入的年份区间相应地缩小,并且,养老统筹基金的累计结余随之增加.研究进一步发现,当二孩生育比例处于10%—30%的低生育水平,在维持原财务状况不变时,基本养老保险缴费率可下降到14.44%—17.75%;处于50%—70%的中生育水平时,基本养老保险缴费率可下降到10.36%—12.10%;处于90%—100%的高生育水平时,基本养老保险缴费率可下降到8.44%—9.01%.这表明全面放开二孩政策能够改善我国养老统筹基金的收支关系,缓解养老统筹基金的支付压力,但是该政策受到生育保障力度的影响.     

Demographic situation in Poland in 1989 on the basis of the report of the Government Population Commission

"The study contains...statements of the...sixteenth report of the Government Population Commission on 'Poland's demographic situation'.... The 1990 Report presents for the first time a thorough analysis of mortality caused by...circulatory and respiratory system diseases, malignant neoplasms, injuries and poisonings, [for] basic administrative units (towns and gminas). Moreover, the 1990 Report presents an analysis of changes in the structures of: the socio-demographic situation of households and families, disability, and the external migration of Poland's population in the years 1978-1988. The Report also contains an analysis of the [sociological] changes in Polish family life over the postwar period...."     

Inventing the Pedophile in the Journal of Homosexuality

ABSTRACT

This article serves as one of the supplementary pieces of this special issue on “Mapping Queer Bioethics,” in which we take a solipsistic turn to “map” the Journal of Homosexuality itself. Here, the author examines one of the most controversial moments in the history of the journal, whereby a contributor was subject to governmental and popular rebuke for his scholarship on pederasty, pedophilia, and underage queer sexuality. In a chronological and intellectual appraisal of this pedophilia-themed text, the author asks us to recalibrate the disquietude we posit when same-sex affection, youthful sexuality, and sexual abuse are in close proximity.     

关于京津沪超低生育率中外来人口分母效应的检验

本文质疑梁秋生论文中控制外来流入人口以后京津沪大城市总和生育率均高于 1 0的推算结果 ,并根据全国第五次人口普查 1‰抽样样本的京津沪育龄妇女案例进行了检验汇总。按两种不同口径的汇总结果都表明 ,京津沪户籍育龄妇女的总和生育率远远低于 1 0。     

从人口结构演化解析中国人口政策的实际影响

随着中国人口结构中人口老龄化、出生性别比失衡等问题的出现,特别在人口自然增长率持续下降的背景下,社会上形成这样一种认识：推行了近三十年的人口政策是造成人口结构问题的根源,只要放开这一政策以上问题将会迎刃而解。对此,本文从经济学角度进行了剖析,认为人口政策虽然对出生性别比失衡负有不可推卸的责任、但并非主因,人口年龄结构老化更是与此关联不大。在中国人口数量依然严峻的形势下,通过提升经济发展水平促进社会进步才是解决问题的关键所在。     

走进新世纪的中国农村养老

农村养老是中国21世纪战略难题。中国人口80%以上在农村,农村60岁以上人口已超1亿,人口老龄化来势迅速,在农村两代人分居现象严重,农民对人口老龄化认识和准备不足。所以,必须大力开展农村养老保障体系构建。     

我国社会转型中生育文化发展面临的问题及对策

改革开放以来,我国生育文化发生了重大的变化,但总的看来,我国生育文化仍处在由传统生育文化向现代生育文化的转变过程中,发展有中国特色的社会主义生育文化仍存在一系列亟待解决的问题。发展生育文化的根本途径是加快经济发展,深化改革,健全社会保障体系,加强政府对建设新型生育文化的正确引导,逐渐消除传统生育文化赖以存在的土壤和条件,创造出有利于新型生育文化发展的宏观、微观条件。     

Changes in Cohabitation After the Birth of the First Child in Chile

In Chile, as in other Latin American countries, most children born outside of marriage are born to currently cohabiting couples. After having their first child, parents could marry, separate, or experience no change in union status. This paper explores changes in cohabitation that occur after the birth of the first child in Chile and analyzes how these changes might be associated with the birth of children and socioeconomic status. The data come from the New Chilean Family Survey, a small longitudinal survey administered to women after giving birth (n = 564). I use life tables and event history techniques to assess changes in respondent union status up to 4 years after the birth of the first child, and to study the transitions out of cohabitation. The results indicate that the unions in the sample are relatively stable, because less than 40 percent of cohabiters change status over the period of 4 years. However, marriage still appears to be a more stable type of union than cohabitation. Among cohabiters, there is evidence of a nonlinear relation between union stability and educational attainment, because the most stable unions are the unions of women with a high school diploma and not the unions of women who did not complete their secondary education. Having planned the first birth and the birth of an additional child seems to consolidate the cohabiting union, because these variables are not related to the entry into marriage, but they are related to lower risks of dissolution. These findings suggest that the Chilean case differs from the cases of Europe and the United States.     

Life and death in the sixteenth century in the City of York

Abstract Birth data obtained from the parish records of the City of York show a markedly bi-modal seasonal distribution in the sixteenth century. It appeared interesting to compare the expectation of life of individuals born during this period, during the two minimal and two maximal seasons, to determine if there was any adaptive significance in the annual variation of birth rate. No such effect could be established by this study. However, certain conclusions of considerable interest can be drawn. The survivorship functions for either sex, grouped by birth season or on the whole group, are of a rectilinear diagonal type more reminiscent of an avian population rather than man. However the York data were treated, no statistically significant difference appeared between the sexes when their expectation of life was compared, and the female death rate at all times until the end of life was somewhat higher than the male. It appeared that sixteenth-century York tended to care better for their sons than for their daughters, which also appears to be the case in some modern societies of low to moderate living standard.     

The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world

This study examines the role of tempo effects in the fertility declines of less developed countries. These effects temporarily inflate the total fertility of a population during periods when the age at childbearing declines and deflate it when childbearing is postponed. An analysis of data from the World Fertility Surveys and the Demographic and Health Surveys demonstrates that fertility trends observed in many less developed countries are likely to be distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing. In most countries women are delaying childbearing, which implies that observed fertility is lower than it would have been without tempo changes. This pattern is most clearly documented in Taiwan, where accurate birth statistics from a vital registration system make it possible to estimate the tempo components of fertility annually from 1978 to 1993. The small but unexpected rise in the total fertility of Colombia in the early 1990s is attributed to a decline in the negative tempo distortion that prevailed in the 1980s. Similar interruptions of ongoing fertility declines may occur in the future in other countries when existing negative tempo effects are removed.     

论农民养老中的政府职能

在现行农民养老体系中,政府尽管做了大量工作,但总体支持力度不够,影响了农村老年保障制度的正常发展。政府应明确和确立其主体地位,充分发挥自身职能,以促进农民养老问题的解决和农村老年保障制度的健康发展。     

Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States

We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are "catching up" on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.     

Analytical problems in the measurement of the quality of life

The absence of an explicit theoretical framework seems to have led to a number of objectionable features — empirical as well as conceptual — in previous attempts to construct and apply QOL measures. This paper presents a theoretical framework for QOL measurement based on individual utility maximization. Without severe restrictions on the form of the utility function, however, this framework does not lead to meaningful average or aggregate QOL measures. Furthermore, our empirical analysis indicates that attempts to use currently available QOL measures — despite their conceptual inadequacy — in the analysis of migration have been ill conceived.     

Ageing in the United States at the end of the century

"The belief that America is a ?young' nation is widely held by many individuals in the United States. Historically, individualism, self-reliance, and an orientation towards youth have been cherished values reflecting...our national heritage and tradition dating from the 18th through the mid-20th century. However, America is no longer a ?young' nation. Rather, we are an ?aging' population, as we show in our analysis of demographic transitions reviewed in this paper. The phenomenon of ?cultural (or structural) lag' is discussed in two different contexts: first--the context of the aging family; and second--the context of ethnic/racial minority groups. Finally, some of the relevant public policy responses to aging are described. We look at government programs in four major categories, namely, (1) income; (2) health care; (3) social services; and (4) housing."     

大都市近郊"自主养老"模式的机制分析 ——以上海市近郊W村为考察中心

调研发现,"养儿防老"的反馈式家庭养老在上海市近郊农村难以维系,"以工养老"为核心内容的"自主养老"模式应运而生.首先,东部地区近郊村快速就地工业化为当地低龄老人提供大量的就业机会;其次,深度嵌入市场的近郊村家庭的家产快速货币化,父子分家而来的家庭财产个体化为老人自主分配提供了政治空间;最后,家庭结构核心化瓦解了传统家庭养老的代际伦理,理性化的新伦理为老人自我积累提供了内在动力.从而形成以低龄老人为养老主体的"以自己务工为基础、 以自主分配为原则、 以自我积累为目的"的养老新模式.     

清代江南瘟疫对人口之影响初探

瘟疫对人口的影响一直是史学界比较缺乏关注的问题,而史籍中的一些笼统的记载以及近年出现的探索性研究似乎显示,瘟疫是中国历史上影响人口发展最具威力的"冷面杀手".情况究竟如何?笔者通过对发生在清代江南的一些瘟疫个案的考察,认为对清代江南瘟疫带来的人口损失率不宜估计过高,在疫病模式比较稳定的时期和地区,尽管瘟疫发生的频率较高,但对人口发展的影响并非举足轻重,至少不会产生结构性的影响.     

The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.