A tentative discussion on family planning problems in Xinjiang's minorities]

The Uighur Autonomous region in Xinjiang includes a number of minority groups such as the Uighur, Kazakh and Hui. The question of how to implement family planning in minority areas if of utmost importance. In February 1982, the State Council decreed that family planning policy for minority groups could justifiably be more lax than for the Han people, who comprise a majority of Chinese population. Instead of advocating 1 child per couple, as is the current national policy, urban minority groups are permitted 2 (with exceptions, 3) children per couple and rural villagers are permitted 3 (with exceptions, 4) children. The 1982 National Census showed that the natural rate of growth for Xinjiang was 13.63/1000 (compared to the national rate of 11.45/1000) with individual minority growth rates as high as 20.11/1000. The area's gross output value cannot keep up with this population increase. Over half of Xinjiang's minorities are of the Islamic faith, which teaches that births are not self-willed. It is crucial to inculcate in them that births can indeed be planned. Also, their custom of early marriage (age 15 for girls and 16 for boys) which leads to a high fertility rate, must be changed. Although Xinjiang's land mass is great, only 38.4% is arable, so the common belief that its population can grow without limit is fallacious. When family planning was being implemented nationwide, for minorities it was only propagandistic. After the population growth for the majority Han was under control, the minority groups declared family planning programs would also benefit them. Symposiums were held contraceptive use became voluntary among many women. The birth rate fell from 22.5/1000 in 1981 to 14.09/1000 in 1985. Family planning also received approval from religious leaders. But because population distribution and growth are uneven in Xinjiang, family planning policy must reflect these differences.     

To grasp the family planning program early, carefully and surely according to the law of reproduction]

China's February 1982 Directive on Improving Family Planning Work stipulated that family planning should be incorporated into national economic and social planning by understanding it early, carefully, and surely according to the law of reproduction. Understanding family planning early means to implement the policy of birth control as a primary goal, to plan early for births, and to carry out birth control measures, i.e., formulating a plan is the basis of understanding early. For example, the following must be considered when mapping out a plan for 1983: the number of fertile women who wanted children but who remained childless for 3 years of marriage; those who conceived late in 1982 and will deliver in 1983; the number of newlyweds over 23 years of age who have not planned a pregnancy; those with 1 child over 4 years who due to unusual circumstances will have a 2nd child; the number of people planning marriages before March 1983. The next step is to make arrangements, which include submitting individual requests, getting permission from communes and approval from the general public, and delivering contraceptives to the homes of newlyweds and mothers. 9 months after arrangements are completed, adjustments must be made, e.g., those who were unsuccessful in their plan to conceive this year will try the next year. To understand carefully is to understand the concept, circumstances, and data of family planning and thus be able to administer it scientifically. This means primarily controlling fertile women who are newlyweds, mothers of 1 child, and mothers of multiple children. To understand surely is to conform to the organization, concept, policy, planning, and measures of family planning. This means training basic level birth control cadres in population theory and methods of family planning. In addition, it means persuading the masses to be enthusiastic, diligent, fearless, understanding, and to show initiative toward family planning.     

Some fundamental problems in population projection]

When family planning work in China developed, during the 1970's, the work of population projection also expanded. Population projections were done for China and its regions beginning in 1974 and remains a relatively new activity. Some question its validity, while others speculate about its methods and beleive only higher mathematics can be used, but this is all due to a lack of understanding of the nature of population forecasting. It is possible to predict population because if a current population situation and its changes are known, population of a particular future period can be projected e.g. for each year that is lived, a person will be 1 year older. And, population changes are primarily based on changes in births and deaths. These changes in turn are influenced by social and economic factors. Population projection is basically a forecasting of a certain period's total population, age and sex structure, the number of births and deaths, and migration. Different methods and formulas can be used to measure different population indicators, but all methods utilize comparisons. There are basically 2 methods for projecting total population: 1) the "direct method" regards total population as a quantity that itself changes and 2) the "separate factor method" breaks down total population into births, deaths, and migration. In the past, population projection has focused on the natural development of population which can be called "uncontrolled" because it makes "passive measurements" of possible population developments. In China, however, population projection is "controlled." Although it too measures future population developments, China's projections are not based on natural developments, but on definite population policies and estimates of results of family planning efforts.     

吉林省2000-2005年生育情况分析

吉林省2005年人口出生率7.89‰,低于全国平均水平,人口和计划生育工作形式总体是好的。但通过对吉林省2000-2005年生育情况的调查发现,全省低生育水平面临反弹的现实风险。我们必须清醒地看到,违法生育数量相对增加,一胎违法生育所占比例较大,再婚违法生育占违法多胎生育比例较大。在详细分析产生问题原因的基础上结合工作实际提出解决违法生育增多问题的建议。     

The present task of family planning as suggested by the findings of the National Sample Survey of Fertility]

Results from the 1982 census show great progress has been made in the field of family planning because of close cooperation between the people and the government. Under the influence of the high birth rate in the 1950s and 1960s, a large number of youths are reaching the age for marriage each year, and they are bringing heavy pressure on the population growth. As a result of this situation, family planning work is still urgently needed. A great difference exists between cities and rural areas in family planning work. Economic conditions, cultural and educational levels, occupational characteristics, living environments, and concepts of population growth have contributed to this difference. Henceforth, special emphasis should be placed on family planning work in rural areas, so that the large scale population groth in the countryside may be brought under control. In areas of scientific management, propaganda and education, and technical measures for family planning, modern and and progressive methods should be used in order to reach the national goal of controlling population growth.     

Family planning and fertility in Tunisia

The crude birth rate for the Tunisian population in 1967–68 is estimated to be about ten percent lower than in 1961–65 although the rates are subject to a wide margin of error. Unless the birth registration system is becoming steadily worse or unless the Tunisian population has been decreasing in size, however, the birth rate has fallen; births registered in 1967 or in 1968 were fewer in number than births registered in 1964, 1965, or 1966. The downturn in the crude birth rate occurred shortly after an official national family planning program was inaugurated. Estimates of births averted by contraceptive use, however, suggest that only about one third of the decrease in the rate could be attributed to accomplishments of the program. Occurring at the same time were changes in the age structure which led to smaller numbers of women in the peak reproductive ages and changes in the social status of women which included a sharp reduction in the proportion married in the age group 15–19.     

Regression analysis of the relationship between the birth rate and proportion of first order births in 1981]

Generally speaking, various fertility indicators such as the birth rate, average fertility rate, and total fertility rate have a close relationship. Various regression analyses have also been made by using different data on population statistics to describe their internal relationships. A regression analysis of the relationship between the birth rate and proportion of first order births, however, has not been made. Data collected by family planning staff at various places show that the places with a high rate of first order births normally have a lower birth rate, and the places with a low rate of first order births very often have a high birth rate. From here we may find that the proportion of the first order births is moving in two opposite directions, and there is no determined relationship between them. It is impossible to use one indicator to calculate the other's indicator. Only a regression analysis can be made to study the relationship between the two. The birth rate and proportion of first order births in 1981 showed some negative relationship, but the use of a regression equation should still be restricted. The regression equation between the birth rate and proportion of first order births may reflect a correct relationship when the region and the number of first order births are fixed. Therefore, any factor which has an impact on the number of first order births also has an influence on the use of regression equation.     

New problems for China's population control

Increases in both marriages and divorces in China have created challenges for China's efforts to curb population growth. In 1987, 8.80 million marriages were registered in China--an increase of 530,000 over 1986. This trend is a result of 2 factors: increases in the numbers of people in the marriageable age group and a decline in the average age at 1st marriage. In addition, China's divorce rate has just surpassed the 1/1000 level; 890,000 couples were divorced in 1987. Given the recent alarming increase in China's birth rate, it is recommended that firm measures be taken to reduce the number of early births that result from early marriages and unplanned births from illegal marriages and to promote more widespread use of effective family planning.     

The current situation and tasks of China's population control

During the 10 years from the late 1960's to the late 1970's, China's birth rate declined by 50%. Currently, however, China is in the midst of a baby boom. 3 statements characterize the birth rate: The growth rate is high (birth rate is 21.04/1000 in 1987 and natural increase was 14.39/1000); unplanned births are common; and population growth is varied in different areas of the country (10 provinces show 3rd or higher parity births at an average rate of 20%; the highest rate in a province is 45%). Several measures are suggested to deal with these population problems; increase nationwide awareness of population control; stabilize current family planning policies with only special case exceptions; expand contraceptive services and increase scientific research in the area of family planning; and enact economic and social welfare policies in line with population control.     

The organization of the one percent National Sample Survey of Fertility and its findings]

In September of 1982, a national sample survey of fertility was conducted. A total of 70,000 professional personnel in family planning and manpower in related fields were engaged in this survey. They conducted a comprehensive survey at 815 sample points in 28 different provinces, cities, and autonomous regions all over the country. Their findings can be summarized as follows: (1) A more advanced understanding of the rules of China's population reproduction, (2) supplemental information on births and marital status which was not collected fully in the national census, (3) scientific analysis of the results in family planning during the past 10 or more years, and indication of a correct way for scientific management in family planning work from now on, and (4) a large number of professsional cadres were trained and developed in this sample survey to function effectively in the field of family planning in the future.     

Attitudes toward family size in some East European countries

Summary The paper is a review of published materials on attitudes toward family size derived from nationwide family planning studies conducted in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and the USSR around 1970. Priority is given to the findings on expected family size, though other attitudinal variables such as the ideal number of children and/or the number planned at marriage are also discussed. The paper shows that the majority of women in all the countries surveyed tend to have a limited number of children. Although the trend is especially striking among better-educated and gainfully employed women, it is also spreading fast, particularly among the younger generations, through the whole urban and rural population. The average expected family size is generally close to, and for a sizeable group of women below, replacement level. The trend toward a small family size is only partially a reflection of real desires. Various factors, most of them apparently of an economic nature, prompt many women to have fewer children than they would wish. If the average expected fertility were equal to that considered as ideal or to that planned at marriage there would be no danger that births would fall below replacement level. In contrast to the situation in the countries as a whole, women in the Asian Republics of the USSR not only expect but also tend to regard as ideal a family with larger numbers of children.     

A preliminary inquiry about the problem of second births outside the plan]

In 1981, the population growth in China was revived and showed a new trend towards a rapid increase. In general, the rate of numerous births in one household was down, the rate for a second birth outside the plan was up sharply, and the number for a second birth outside the plan exceeded the number for multiple births in average families. As a result, how to control the second birth outside the plan has become a crucial problem for population control. Under present conditions, numerous births in each household are normally related to the financial situation of each household, the sex of earlier births, and the educationa background of the parents. The current increase in second births is not caused by financial reasons. Instead, it is caused by social and psychological reasons. The traditional belief in favor of having more male children for security in one's old age and for continuation of one's family line is still deeply rooted in the people's minds. In order to eliminate such tradtional influence, more work in ideological education is needed so that the common people may understand the need for birth control and change their traditional view on population. With the establishment of a responsible production system in the rural areas, measures for economic restriction and reward should be taken. In addition, late marriages should be enouraged, and a new tax system based upon population count in each household should be adopted so that additional revenues may be collect for educational and other expenses, and social insurance for old people should be expanded. If all these measures are taken successfully, the problem of second births outside the plan can be solved.     

Grasp the work of family planning by unifying thinking and stabilizing the policy

The China Population Information and Research Center reported that in 1988 the number of childbearing women between 20 and 49 was 4.65 million above 1987, but the population growth rate was 0.19 lower than in 1987. Controlling the population is still a difficult problem. The 3rd baby boom of New China; economic, cultural, social, and other factors; and the uneven progress of family planning are cited as causes of the lack of control. The 13th Party's Congress in 1989 plans to work to reform family planning and control population growth. In particular, late marriages and childbearing will be promoted; in cities, one-child-per- couple will be policy; in rural areas, only girl households will be allowed another child only after several years; local family planning regulations will be supported; and research on family planning and safer, longer acting contraceptives will be financed.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

Seven measures for population control announced in Guangzhou

On 7 October 1988, the Municipal Government of Guangzhou, China, announced the following Decision: "First, great efforts should be made to strengthen education on the situation and tasks of the family planning programme. Second, family planning work is included in the target responsibility system of leaders at all levels during their terms of office and whether it is good or bad for the fulfillment of their family planning tasks will be considered as one of the criteria for the assessment of cadres in their work to link up with rewards and punishments. Third, the current family planning policies must be resolutely and unswervingly carried out. For those units where family planning policies have not been well carried out and where family planning work has long been stagnant, competent authorities should send capable cadres to help them improve their work within a definite period of time. Fourth, the principle of 'three priorities' (i.e., priority of publicity and education to economic restriction, priority of contraceptive measures to induced abortions, and priority of day-to-day work to shock work) must be adhered to while technical service and work of transforming the backward situation in some places should be done. Fifth, the family planning organizations at all levels must be perfected and ranks of family planning workers be strengthened with the stress on those at the township, town, and street neighbourhood levels. Moreover, the family planning offices should be set up or full-time family planning workers be staffed for enterprises and undertakings in the cities. Sixth, funds for the family planning work must be guaranteed. Seventh, the management of family planning for [the] floating population must be strengthened and a management group for [the] floating population, which consists of representatives from the Municipal Government and departments concerned, must be established."     

Kenya's record population growth: a dilemma of development

The causes and implications of Kenya's 4% rate of natural increase and fertility rate of 8.1 births per woman were examined. Attention was directed to the following: pronatalist pressures; inadvertent pronatalist impact of development; women's education and employment and fertility; population growth and pressures; mortality decline and population growth; fertility levels and differentials; fertility desires; the family planning program; and family planning knowledge, attitudes, and practice. Kenya's development success has worked to push up the population growth rate. Improved health care and nutrition halved infant mortality from 160 to 87 deaths/1000 live births between 1958 and 1977 and a marked increase in primary school enrollment may be factors in the birthrate increase to 53/1000 population. At this time fertility is highest among women with 1-4 years of education. The 1977-1978 Kenya Fertility Survey showed that only 5.8% of married women were using modern contraception, indicating that the national family planning program, established in 1967, has made little progress. Program difficulties have included shortages of staff, supplies and easily accessible clinic as well as an almost universal desire on the part of Kenyans for families of at least 7 children. Children are viewed as essential to survival and status to the rural population.     

Thailand: family planning program exceeds targets

According to Dr. Somboon Vacharothai, Director General of the Ministry of Public Health, the number of people in Thailand who practiced family planning exceeded last year's target. 664,895 individuals used family planning services; this was 62.2% above the planned target for 1976. It was further predicted that 700,000 persons would be recruited by the family planning program in 1977. The preferred method of birth control was the oral contraceptive; it is the method of 800,000 acceptors. Service outlets have been extended rapidly with 5836 medical centers providing family planning services throughout Thailand. Government allocations for family planning have increased from 0.9 million dollars in 1975 to 2.47 million dollars in 1977.     

The method of measuring probability of the annual fertility]

At the present time, under the guidance of national planning, population control is the most important theme of China's population policy. In order to realize the national goal of controlling population growth, family planning should be worked out at local levels. How to achieve a reasonable population planning norm at a local level is a very crucial problem in family planning work. Up to the present time, various methods have been used to measure the probability of the annual fertility. In his report, the author provides a new formula to calculate the probability of the annual fertility. Based upon this formula, we may calculate the number of planned birth for a certain year and its fertility. From the figure we may set a reasonable goal according to population policy and actual population components. This formula is suitable for use in annual planning, as well as short-term or long-term population planning.     

The new marriage law and planned birth]

The New Marriage Law was passed during the Fifth National People's Congress. It raised the minimum marriage age from 20 years for men and 18 years for women stipulated by the Old Marriage Law to 22 years for men and 20 years for women. It also differs from the Old Marriage Law in that it strengthens its encouragement of late marriage, late births and birth control, emphasizes that birth planning is the duty of both husband and wife, and prohibits marriage of collateral blood relations within 3 generations (the Old Marriage Law's standard was "to follow custom"). A third of the provisions of the New Marriage Law concern family planning, of which the first 3 clauses are the most important: 1) To set guidelines for the relationship between marriage and family: the New Marriage Law is concerned with not just the family, but also marriage and birth and expects all citizens to comply with and protect these standards. 2) To implement freedom in marriage--equality for men and women; to protect the rights of women, children, and the aged; to implement planned birth. 3) To prohibit any action that prevents freedom of marriage, such as marriage on a mercenary basis and to prohibit financial profit from marriages. Other clauses include: 1) direct blood relations and victims of leprosy or other diseases determined unmarriageable by the medical profession are prohibited from marriage; 2) after marriage registration and with the mutual agreement of both parties, either partner can become a member of the other's family; children can take either parent's surname; both partners have mutual rights of inheritance, as do parents and children. In Heilungjiang Province, data from September 1980 show that 87.5% of its fertile women used contraceptives. From January to September 1980 85.6% married late; the rate of applications for One Child Certificates was 80%. By 1979 the rate of natural population increase was 10.14/1000.     

Some problems in determining the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate

Abstract The paper attempts to revive professional interest in a problem originally considered by Lee and Isbister and which has assumed added importance recently because of the increasing number of national family planning programmes that are being instituted, which require the determination of the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme in order to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate. The publication of subsequent papers on births averted by programmes, notably by Potter and Wolfers, each of whom had made some criticisms of the paper by Lee and Isbister, has tended to obscure the differences in the nature between the problem raised by Lee and Isbister, and that discussedby Potter or Wolfers. The paper tries to bring out these differences and points out one of the limitations of the estimates of births averted obtained by using either Potter's or Wolfers's methods, viz. the inability to determine the time period to which the birth reduction refers, thereby further complicating the issues involved in assessing the social and economic implications of births averted by a family planning programme. The paper also points out some of the unrecognizedtechnical considerations which arise in dealingwith the 'target-setting' problem raised by Lee and Isbister and suggeststhat stochasticmodel studies might offera clue for evolving practical methods for tackling this problem.