不同所有制企业规模的经济运行特征研究

经历了不同的所有制改革之后,苏南和温州地区不同所有制企业的规模也不同,温州模式以小规模的私营企业为主,苏南模式以大规模的外资企业为主,这就为研究不同所有制企业的平均规模对经济增长和收入分配的影响提供了实证研究的基础。本文选取1991至2007年苏锡常和温杭宁的面板数据,基于固定效应模型进行实征分析,发现国企的规模与城市人均可支配收入负相关;股份制企业规模与人均GDP和人均可支配收入均正相关;外企的规模与人均GDP正相关。     

各地“十五”经济发展和“十一五”目标比较

“十五”期内各地经济发展数据注:GDP、人均GDP、财政收入数据为2005年数据;人均GDP中部分地区是根据当前汇率换算过来的,原数据保留在括号中。“十五”期末GDP(亿元)年均增速(%)“十五”期末人均GDP(元)“十五”期末地方财政收入(亿元)年均增长(%)累计全社会固定资产投资(亿元     

基于聚类分析的中国各地区化石能源消耗研究

本文在对我国能源消耗和产业结构相关研究的基础上，运用SPSS16.0软件，以2009年各地区的人均GDP和人均化石能源消耗为数据基础，将我国除港澳台和西藏外的30个地区以聚类分析的方法分为四大类，并分析了各类的经济发展和化石能源消耗特征。     

以人均概念转变发展模式

"我希望有一天,当我问到人均概念时,你们能脱口而出!"这是近日广东省委书记汪洋对当地领导干部提出的要求。一些地方领导在介绍当地经济社会发展情况时,讲GDP总量、财政收入总量等数据如数家珍,清晰明了,但被问到人均GDP、人均财政收入时,却往往闪烁其词,或称"还没有算出来"。汪洋说,这是因为在工作中自觉不自觉地忽视了人均概念。广东     

基于分解模型的人均GDP地区间差异分析——从空间角度

根据Meliciani对人均GDP的研究,将人均GDP的构成因素分解为劳动生产率、就业率、劳动参与率和劳动年龄结构4个指标,将中国31个省份各指标的横截面方差分解为3个地区组内方差和组间方差,运用各省人口规模占全国人口规模的比重作为权重进行评估.研究结果表明,尽管3个地区的劳动生产率差距在缩小,就业率地区间差距也在缩小,但人均GDP差距仍在不断扩大,劳动参与率和劳动年龄结构的地区间分布变化的异动是推进地区间人均GDP差异扩大的主要驱动力.针对劳动参与率与人均GDP、劳动生产率、就业率的不同步发展,利用空间计量方法,把地区间影响分解为相邻省份、同一地区内省份之间和不同地区省份之间的影响3个因素,结果表明劳动参与率的省份问变动主要存在于跨地区的相邻省份间,而人均GDP则受同一地区内相邻省份的影响.地区间人均GDP差距之所以不断扩大,劳动力的跨地区流动是重要的影响因素之一,劳动力的跨地区流动甚至影响地区间劳动年龄结构的差异.     

基于马尔可夫链的我国各地区人均GDP的研究

本文首先将我国各地区的人均GDP情况划分为5种状态,然后根据我国2000～2008年的人均GDP的数据,建立了马尔可夫预测模型,并利用此模型对我国各地区5年、10年、15年后人均GDP进行了科学地分析和预测。     

深入学习实践科学发展观 建设富强美丽和谐新兰山

兰山区是临沂市委、市政府所在地,是山东省县域经济发展先进单位,有闻名全国的商贸批发城。去年,全区完成GDP306亿元,实现地方财政收入10．1亿元,农民人均纯收入5896元。今年前三季度,全区完成GDP272亿元,增长19％;实现地方财政收入8．2亿元,增长24％;农民人均现金收入5740元,增长20％。     

西部大开发要坚持三个原则关注三类差距

新中国建立50多年来,特别是改革开放以来,西部地区经济发展较快,但至今尚未走出工业化初级阶段,有的省(区)还处于初级产品生产阶段。截至1999年,西部地区人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入和农民纯收入只相当于全国平均值的65％、86％和72％。比全国平均水平低35％、14％和28％,比东部地区低59％、26％和48％。这些差距,是西部区域经济规模有限、     

中国如何进行房地产业改革？

中国的房地产对GDP的直接贡献率,2006年就高达10．74％,间接贡献率11．50％,综合贡献率超过20％。无论是GDP政绩,还是财政收入,都出自房地产。譬如杭州市一年卖地1000多亿元,而地方财政收入仅520亿元。2009年全国工商联在《我国房价何以居高不下——房地产开发的总费用支出一半流向政府》中揭示：9个城市在总费用支出中,流向政府的比例为49．42％（上海达到64．5％）,也就是说,房价的一半以上成了地方政府的收入。     

基于协整理论的财政收入与经济增长关系研究--来自四川省时间序列数据

财政收入与经济增长关系一直是理论界讨论的热点。为了推动财政收入与经济增长协调发展,在协整理论的指导下对四川省1997-2016年财政收入与GDP数据进行定量分析,结果表明财政收入与GDP具有协整关系,可以形成长期均衡,即使存在短期波动,内部修正机制也会将其调整为均衡状态;财政收入与GDP二者相辅相成,相互促进;经济发展为财政收入扩张提供源动力,偏离经济水平的财政收入对于自身持续发展和国民经济增长都是不利的。为促进财政收入规模与经济水平相匹配,应该进一步扩大经济总量,加强财政监管,优化支出结构,提高财政资金利用效率。     

能源Kuznets曲线:发达国家的实证分析

关于经验环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC)文献已经很多了,但就环境质量与经济增长之间是否存在EKC一直没有得出结论。本文采用非线性回归和拟合的方法,对世界货币基金组织(International Money Fund,IMF)发布的28个发达国家从1970到2004年间的人均能源消费、能源消费总量和人均GDP数据进行回归分析,验证能源消费与收入之间是否存在倒U型曲线关系。结果表明,28个发达国家中有17个国家出现人均能源消费与人均GDP之间的倒U型曲线关系,能源消费总量与人均GDP之间也同样出现倒U型曲线关系,其中有10个国家人均能源消费出现拐点,在这10个国家中,除法国、荷兰和瑞士外的其它国家能源消费总量也都出现拐点。     

Are Economic Development and Education Improvement Associated with Participation in Transnational Terrorism?

Using transnational terrorism data from 1980 to 2000, this study empirically examines the relationships between frequency of participation in transnational terrorism acts and economic development and education improvement. We find an inverse U‐shaped association between the frequency of various nationals acting as perpetrators in transnational terrorism acts and per capita income in their respective home countries. As per capita incomes increase from relatively low levels, frequencies of participation in transnational terrorism increase. However, at sufficiently higher levels of per capita income, further increase in per capita income is negatively associated with the rate of participation in transnational terrorism. Education improvement from elementary to secondary is positively correlated with frequency of participation in transnational terrorism events, whereas further improvement from secondary to tertiary level is negatively correlated with participation in transnational terrorism. We also find that citizens of countries with greater openness to international trade, lower degree of income inequality, greater economic freedom, larger proportion of population with tertiary education, and less religious prevalence participate in transnational terrorism events less frequently.     

Nonhomotheticity and Bilateral Trade: Evidence and a Quantitative Explanation

The standard gravity model predicts that trade flows increase in proportion to importer and exporter total income, regardless of how income is divided into income per capita and population. Bilateral trade data, however, show that trade grows strongly with income per capita and is largely unresponsive to population. I develop a general equilibrium Ricardian model of trade that allows the elasticity of trade with respect to income per capita and with respect to population to diverge. Goods are of various types, which differ in their income elasticity of demand and in the extent to which there is heterogeneity in their production technologies. I estimate the model using bilateral trade data of 162 countries and compare it to a special case that delivers the gravity equation. The general model improves the restricted model's predictions regarding variations in trade due to size and income. I experiment with counterfactuals. A positive technology shock in China makes poor and rich countries better off and middle‐income countries worse off.     

经济发展潜能与人力资本质量

本文以人力资本数量和质量的测算为切入点,研究人均产出水平差异的成因与中国经济的发展潜能问题。本文依据真实经济周期模型确定人力资本数量的"基准水平",推导得出人力资本质量测算公式。由此测算全球经济、7个经济区域、4个经济组织、73个经济体的人力资本质量及年均增长率,按照测算结果从总量和人均这两个层面对其经济增长进行核算分析。本文发现,人力资本质量水平的跨国差异能够解释人均产出水平跨国差异的绝大部分,这两种差异将长期存在,即使高收入经济体之间也未显示出趋同的经验证据。测算结果表明,中国经济的人力资本质量水平显著落后于发达国家且其提升速率确已逐渐放缓。这一经济事实既决定了长期内中国仍将是发展中经济体,又成为制约中国经济可持续发展潜能的重要因素。因此,人力资本质量水平快速提升是中国经济实现潜在发展能力的关键,更是实现赶超目标的基础。而合乎数理逻辑、易于观测、在政策实践中可操作性较好且空间较大的人力资本质量提升途径是消费产出比的扩大。本文预测,若将中国经济消费产出比在未来30年内平稳扩大至2017年美国经济的0.865,仅此就能确保中国最晚可于2027年成为高收入经济体。同时,若能辅之以成熟度不断提高的市场经济体制并将政府支出侧重于持续优化整个教育体系、加大人力资本投资、强化基础研究,或将缩短中国成为发达经济体和领先经济体的时间进程。本文预测,若人力资本质量提升的年均率额外再增加1%,2024年,中国就可跻身高收入经济体;2049年,人均产出水平接近5万美元,达到美国的54.7%。     

基于变异系数-AHP的经济评价模型及中国十五期间实证研究

根据坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续的发展的科学发展观的内涵,通过经济指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了经济综合评价指标体系。用客观赋权的变异系数法和主观赋权的AHP法组合确定指标最优权重,并利用灰色关联理论对指标进行评分,建立了基于科学发展观的经济综合评价模型,并对十五期间中国的经济状况进行实证分析。本文的创新与特色有四点:一是通过将可观测的人均准绿色GDP纳入评价体系间接反映了绿色GDP,解决了现阶段中国经济评价因绿色GDP指标的缺失而不能反映科学发展观的问题,改变了现有评价没有考虑经济增长对环境伤害的缺点;二是通过人均财政收入等人均经济成果占有量的评价,反映科学发展观以人为本的核心,摒弃了世界环境与发展委员会等权威机构在评价人均占有量的同时又评价经济总量的做法;三是通过可持续发展指标和经济结构的评价,反映科学发展观全面协调可持续的基本要求;四是通过GDP增长率、固定资产投资增长率等适中指标理想值标准的设定,解决了现有评价片面认为这些指标越大越好或越小越好的不合理问题。     

Uncertainty Assessment in the Quantification of Risk Rates of Occupational Accidents

Occupational risk rates per hour of exposure have been quantified for 63 occupational accident types for the Dutch working population. Data were obtained from the analysis of more than 9,000 accidents that occurred over a period of six years in the Netherlands and resulted in three types of reportable consequences under Dutch law: (a) fatal injury, (b) permanent injury, and (c) serious recoverable injury requiring at least one day of hospitalization. A Bayesian uncertainty assessment on the value of the risk rates has been performed. Annual risks for each of the 63 occupational accident types have been calculated, including the variability in the annual exposure of the working population to the corresponding hazards. The suitability of three risk measures—individual risk rates, individual annual risk, and number of accidents—is examined and discussed.     

Optimal Per‐Use Rentals and Sales of Durable Products and Their Distinct Roles in Price Discrimination

We consider a setting in which consumers experience distinct instances of need for a durable product at random intervals. Each instance of need is associated with a random utility and the consumers are differentiated according to the frequency with which they experience such instances of need. We use our model of consumer utility to characterize the firm's optimal strategy of whether to sell, rent, or do a combination of both in terms of the transaction costs and consumers' usage characteristics. We find that the two modes of operation serve different roles in allowing the firm to price discriminate. While sales allow the firm to discriminate among consumers of different usage frequencies, rentals allow it to discriminate according to consumers' realized valuations. Consequently, even when transaction costs are negligible, it is often optimal for the firm to simultaneously rent and sell its product. In addition, we find that although sales and rentals are substitutes and that the offering of sales weakly increases rental prices, it is possible that the introduction of rentals to a pure selling operation can either increase or decrease the optimal sales prices.     

Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context

The monetized value of avoided premature mortality typically dominates the calculated benefits of air pollution regulations; therefore, characterization of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates is key to good policymaking. Formal expert judgment elicitation methods are one means of characterizing this uncertainty. They have been applied to characterize uncertainty in the mortality concentration‐response function, but have yet to be used to characterize uncertainty in the economic values placed on avoided mortality. We report the findings of a pilot expert judgment study for Health Canada designed to elicit quantitative probabilistic judgments of uncertainties in Value‐per‐Statistical‐Life (VSL) estimates for use in an air pollution context. The two‐stage elicitation addressed uncertainties in both a base case VSL for a reduction in mortality risk from traumatic accidents and in benefits transfer‐related adjustments to the base case for an air quality application (e.g., adjustments for age, income, and health status). Results for each expert were integrated to develop example quantitative probabilistic uncertainty distributions for VSL that could be incorporated into air quality models.     

Willingness to Pay for Shifting Inventory Risk: The Role of Contractual Form

In order to reduce their inventory risk, firms can attempt to contract with their suppliers for shorter supply lead‐times, with their buyers for longer demand lead‐times, or both. We designed a controlled laboratory experiment to study contracts that shift a focal firm's inventory risk to its supply chain partners and address two questions. First, is it more effective if the cost of shifting inventory risk is framed as a fixed fee or in per‐unit cost terms? We find that, generally, our participants are willing to pay more to avoid supply–demand mismatches than the expected costs from such mismatches. This tendency to overpay is mitigated under fixed fee schemes. Second, does it matter whether the option to reduce inventory risk is the outcome of either increased responsiveness from the upstream supplier or advanced demand information from the downstream buyer? Our results suggest that this difference, when only a matter of framing, has no significant effect on willingness‐to‐pay.     

评价利率期权的远期与即期模型的比较分析

对支持利率风险管理的利率期权评价模型进行比较分析 .采用了有关市场的数据来检验7个具有单因素与双因素的即期利率与远期利率模型 ,由此得到一个单因子远期利率模型与两个双因子模型 ,即期利率模型与其它 4个模型之间并无明显的区别